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GVI Forex 16:52:04 GMT - 02/02/2023  
 
EURGBP is still a drier - see this AT chart for the bounce of support


GVI Forex 14:10:56 GMT - 02/02/2023  
EURGBP still driving but this time some unwinding so watch this cross

Outperformed is the JPY

LaGarde still yakking


GVI Forex 13:48:04 GMT - 02/02/2023  
LaGarde press conference starting now…


GVI Forex 10:37:49 GMT - 02/02/2023  
EURGBP (up again) is still driving the fc bus.


HK Kevin  08:05:55 GMT - 02/02/2023  
This week close of the stock market is crucial for the further movement of Q1




Mtl JP  22:48:58 GMT - 02/01/2023  
 
DJT 15% in less than a week!

here is an index that is screaming hypersonic missile off the FED


dc CB  21:11:36 GMT - 02/01/2023  
*META ANNOUNCED TODAY $40B BOOST IN SHARE BUYBACK AUTHORIZATION


dc CB  20:41:20 GMT - 02/01/2023  
The Fed hiked 25bps as fully expected and the statement had 3 key highlights:

Hawkish - keeps "ongoing increases" (plural) language signaling no pause in March.

Small Dovish - adds inflation "has eased somewhat" but notes "remains elevated."

Dovish - Changes "pace" of future increases with "extent", as it transitions from the rate of hikes to the duration of higher rates before any pivot.

As Inflation Insights suggests:

"The one word change from the ‘pace’ of future rate hikes to the ‘extent’ of future hikes tells you that when the Minutes come out, we’ll likely read that officials have begun to debate when to pause."

ZeroHedge


PAR 19:13:50 GMT - 02/01/2023  
VIX drops like a stone but VIX has become a fake indicator because of too many options traded.


Mtl JP  19:01:37 GMT - 02/01/2023  
chicken

.25


GVI Forex 17:45:46 GMT - 02/01/2023  
FOMC: Fadtrn your seat belts


GVI Forex 15:55:25 GMT - 02/01/2023  
EURGBP (up) is driving the fx bus


GVI Forex 07:29:00 GMT - 01/31/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

An impressive 6% rally in global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) this month, the first gain in January after three years, has got investors all excited after a dismal 2022.

Morning Bid: Mind the Gap



dc CB  22:43:29 GMT - 01/30/2023  
the crowd bought stuff they never wanted to buy...

Time to fade it?

The Market Ear



dc CB  20:58:11 GMT - 01/30/2023  
BofA rates strategist Ralf Preusser writes in his weekly preview, "this week is one for the record book. We have not seen these three major central bank decisions (Fed, BoE, ECB); and key data releases (US ISM, payrolls, and the employment cost index, as well as Euro Area inflation, GDP, and confidence data) in the same week before. Not to mention in combination with month-end flow, which given the incidence of supply in Europe should be sizeable in both EUR and GBP."

ZeroHedge


Mtl JP  19:12:12 GMT - 01/30/2023  
Must be over 1/2 a dozen headlines I seen today deving FOMC is going with a quarter-point hike. that would bring the rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. that would leave jerome to convince players that his mushroom farming group is still deathly serious about conquering the inflation infestation and other assorted blah blah blah about concocting other this then that anti-inflation vaccines.

keyword: blink and its variations


Mtl JP  17:11:40 GMT - 01/30/2023  
 
EURO 1.0862
-
puppy is in overall trend
S needs to hold 1.0825
R at 1.0925

I am thinking ... S should hold and dlr strenght should be temporary on euro's dips to S


GVI Forex 16:00:47 GMT - 01/30/2023  
EURUSD 1.0870

FWIW the opening price for the week a week ago was 1.0866-70


Mtl JP  15:58:22 GMT - 01/30/2023  
 
euro 1.0873
-
odds are this is a pict of at least some m-end rebalancing underway


GVI Forex 13:09:33 GMT - 01/30/2023  
A look at the day ahead in markets from Amanda Cooper, Europe breaking news editor.

This week promises to be one of the most action-packed in a while. Three of the world's most influential central banks are likely to raise rates to their highest since the financial crisis, while Q4 earnings season is starting to gather pace.

Morning Bid: This might hurt



PAR 10:23:47 GMT - 01/30/2023  
Italian PPI also moved sharply higher. Way above expectations.


GVI 09:35:30 GMT - 01/30/2023  
LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields rose sharply on Monday in the wake of stronger-than-expected Spanish inflation data, and as investors looked towards the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday.

Euro zone bond yields jump after hot Spanish inflation data



dc CB  03:40:01 GMT - 01/30/2023  
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, has told lawmakers that the US needs to help India find alternatives to Russian military equipment and that is part of the “job we have to do.”
________________________________________________--

At a Senate hearing, top US diplomat Victoria Nuland celebrated the Nord Stream 2 pipeline bombing:

"Senator Cruz, like you, I am, and I think the administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you like to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea."

Victory for Victoria



GVI 21:58:33 GMT - 01/29/2023  
Jan 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. It looks like a quiet start to the week in Asia on Monday, but don't be fooled - it may be the calm before the storm.

A raft of regional economic indicators including Japanese unemployment and PMIs from China, Australia and India, as well as U.S. non-farm payrolls and U.S., euro zone and UK interest rates decisions will surely provide fireworks later in the week.

MORNING BID-Calm before the storm



Mtl JP  14:50:44 GMT - 01/28/2023  
 
according to cnbc f/page:
-
"Investors bet the Fed doom loop they’ve been trapped in will end in the week ahead"

DLRx 101.7-ish
the bet is which way will the grayhound turn after the FED rabbit
luckily there are only three possible directions



Mtl JP  11:42:15 GMT - 01/28/2023  
yellen's earlier threat not being heeded
not a biscuit peddler hits the road:
-
Ahead of her India visit for “foreign office consultations” Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, has told lawmakers that the US needs to help India find alternatives to Russian military equipment and that is part of the “job we have to do.” Nuland is travelling to India as part of a four-nation trip including Nepal, Sri Lanka and Qatar from January 28 to February 3.“I think they (India) find themselves after 60 years of entanglement having to find alternatives, and that’s part of the job we have to do, is help them with alternatives,”

Need to help India find alternatives to Russian military equipment: Biden admin tells lawmakers



Mtl JP  09:44:55 GMT - 01/27/2023  
BoC
financially educating some canadians:

Nearly 1 in 4 Canadians Say They’re ‘Completely Out of Money’ Amidst Inflation: Poll



GVI 08:01:01 GMT - 01/27/2023  
Inflation and the consumer are the focus of the Fed and the market at the moment and we get a dose of both in Friday's US PCE report for December.

The consensus is…

PCE report highlights Friday's US economic calendar



GVI Forex 07:41:54 GMT - 01/27/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

Chip giant Intel's grim earnings report along with mixed U.S data that showed a resilient economy but a labour market that remains tight will likely dominate investors' minds and dictate Friday's trading.

MORNING BID-Stumbling away



dc CB  20:22:36 GMT - 01/26/2023  
A stellar 3Y auction on Tuesday, a record-breaking 5Y auction yesterday and moments ago: a blowout 7Y auction completes a sequence of three monster auctions which have seen an absolute flood of demand mostly by foreign buyers.

Demand For 7Y Paper Delivers Third Monster Treasury Auction In A Row



GVI Forex 12:29:46 GMT - 01/26/2023  
Full skate of US data fir in an hour

GDP
Weekly jobless claims
Durable goods

New home sales later


Mtl JP  07:24:30 GMT - 01/26/2023  
yea yea yea ...
-
ECB Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta reportedly said the central bank should not pre-commit to any specific rate moves beyond its March meeting.

Markets have priced in a 50 basis points hike for the next two policy meetings, but there are questions about whether the ECB will have to ease its hawkish stance after that.

The ECB says it’ll ‘stay the course’ on rate hikes. But it’s not clear for how long - cnbc



Caribbean! Rafe...  20:58:53 GMT - 01/25/2023  
Mtl JP 19:19 GMT 01/25/2023

fwiw...

There is more to it than this but I guess the basics below should paint a clearer picture...

Auctions took place today... Today also is settlement day... Many bonds also are nearing maturity as those were issued during/after lockdown when the pandemic was still raging... Many options matured today... We need to hit forthcoming high and lows to solidify megatrends and set the theme for the next decade...


Mtl JP  19:19:44 GMT - 01/25/2023  
 
headline that just crossed my screen:
-
Treasury yields edge lower as tech earnings disappoint, sparking risk aversion

priceaction says something else


Mtl JP  19:05:11 GMT - 01/25/2023  
...
-
"Fed’s Brainard considered for the White House National Economic Council. What does the NEC director do?"


Mtl JP  17:06:46 GMT - 01/25/2023  
here is another opp coming up to play a CB
FED on Feb. 1 rate decision

enough time to plan trade tacticals
and enough time to game some short-term oscillations


GVI Forex 15:08:30 GMT - 01/25/2023  
BoC says rates now on hold

CAD tumbled on crosses, usd lower elsewhere as a result


Mtl JP  15:07:54 GMT - 01/25/2023  
also on deck:
-
at 13:00est yellen's department will peddling $43bln in 5yr paper


Mtl JP  15:05:33 GMT - 01/25/2023  
next expecting macklem to try to talk out of both corners of mouth

the CB turkeys want players to think that they are backwards looking reactionary



Mtl JP  15:01:56 GMT - 01/25/2023  
so the 25 hike was priced in ...


Mtl JP  14:58:30 GMT - 01/25/2023  
IF they hike 25 points usdcad likely to see 1.33
IF no hike ... rocket
to 1.35


Mtl JP  14:55:52 GMT - 01/25/2023  
BoC at top of the hour

last: 4.25%, concensus expectation is for 4.50%

yikyak one hour later from macklem


GVI Forex 14:44:39 GMT - 01/25/2023  
Hawkish ECP speak continued

BoC next on deck


Mtl JP  11:55:54 GMT - 01/25/2023  
US 10-YR 3.434% -0.033 6:53est


Mtl JP  11:39:50 GMT - 01/25/2023  
of us debt limit and yellen prancing in africa
-
Yellen says debt standoff risks ‘calamity’

Yellen: GOP demand to link spending cuts to debt limit increase ‘very irresponsible’

As Yellen woos Africa, skeptics ask 'Is the U.S. here to stay?'

Yellen Criticizes China, Urges Headway in Zambian Debt Talks

Yellen urges Zambia debt restructure after talks with China

Get your own house in order: China tells US to fix its debt problems after Yellen's Africa remarks

U.S. Treasury activates another maneuver to avoid breaching debt limit

Yellen says Treasury will take additional 'extraordinary measures' on debt limit

Yellen calls for urgent action to improve food security, climate resilience in Africa


GVI Forex 07:17:19 GMT - 01/25/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

After a strong start to the year, fuelled by hopes that the outlook for the world economy was not shaping up as bad as expected a few months ago, stocks are finally taking a breather.

Marketmind: Running out of breathA



GVI Forex 15:22:12 GMT - 01/24/2023  
Overreaction to data that used to be ignored underscores a market… (fill in the blanks)


Mtl JP  11:23:35 GMT - 01/24/2023  
USDCAD 1.3374
-
A horseman coming ?

Frank Stronach: A 'day of reckoning' is coming over our ever-ballooning national debt



GVI Forex 10:19:02 GMT - 01/24/2023  
GBP down after flash PMI


Mtl JP  15:04:54 GMT - 01/23/2023  
GBP 1.2342
-
this puppy is out breath
would need to go back N of 65 to prove my negaview wrong
1.23 on radar


Mtl JP  14:54:33 GMT - 01/23/2023  
EURO 1.0866
-
technically puppy has a bullish tone
S 1.0850 +/-
R 1.0940/50


Mtl JP  14:49:46 GMT - 01/23/2023  
 
some smartdonkey had the brilliant idea that 25bps is a sure thing and with ECB's yikyak yet to be fully priced some "influencer" was peddling the idea of DLR's demise .

pic is of "jumping the shark"


Mtl JP  14:39:20 GMT - 01/23/2023  
according to cnbc
"Stocks are little changed as Wall Street assesses a potential slowdown in Fed rate hikes"

suddenly to einsteins 25 is not a sure thing lol


Mtl JP  14:31:13 GMT - 01/23/2023  
 
EURO 1.0853
the GAP
-
POOPH ! MUERTO kitching



NY JM  13:38:11 GMT - 01/23/2023  
The JP gap???


Mtl JP  11:33:55 GMT - 01/23/2023  
 
EURO 1.0883
-
GAP
still alive


GVI Forex 09:32:23 GMT - 01/23/2023  
SYDNEY, Jan 23 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

It's been a quiet start to the week in Asia with much of the region on holiday. U.S. stocks futures are near flat, but EUROSTOXX futures added 0.5% to extend their recent bullish run.

MORNING BID-Euro rising



Mtl JP  08:12:55 GMT - 01/23/2023  
risk of default is a political issue
and - according to yellen - great gaming opportunity:
-
“If that happened, our borrowing costs would increase and every American would see that their borrowing costs would increase as well,” Yellen said. “On top of that, a failure to make payments that are due, whether it’s the bondholders or to Social Security recipients or to our military, would undoubtedly cause a recession in the US economy and could cause a global financial crisis.”

Here’s what will happen to the economy as the debt ceiling drama deepens - cnn



kl fs  04:34:07 GMT - 01/23/2023  
JP, suggesting game over for usd 2023?


Mtl JP  01:45:13 GMT - 01/23/2023  
EURO at R 1.089 and 00 = dlr getting it on the chin
and
1.10+ on radar



Mtl JP  22:33:20 GMT - 01/22/2023  
 
EURO 1.0865
-
small GAP sofar. see if it stretches out some more



Mtl JP  22:06:46 GMT - 01/22/2023  
Federal Reserve Blackout Periods
Federal Reserve policy limits the extent to which FOMC participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews during Federal Reserve blackout periods, which begin the second Saturday preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and end the Thursday following a meeting unless otherwise noted.

Blackout dates are as follows.

2023 Federal Reserve Blackout Periods
January 21-Feb. 2
March 11-23
April 22-May 4
June 3-15
July 15-27
September 9-21
October 21-November 2
December 2-14

*****************
2023 FOMC Meetings
Jan/Feb31-1
March21-22*
May2-3
June13-14*
July25-26
September19-20*
Oct/Nov31-1
December12-13*
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.


Mtl JP  20:34:34 GMT - 01/21/2023  
The AP Interview: Yellen says debt standoff risks ‘calamity’

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an Associated Press interview Saturday she expects Congress will ultimately vote to raise America's debt limit, but demands by House Republicans for spending cuts in return for backing an increase are “a very irresponsible thing to do” and risk creating a “self-imposed calamity” for the global economy.

“It is possible for markets to become quite concerned about whether or not the U.S. will pay its bills,” she said, pointing to the negative economic impacts of a debt showdown in 2011.

ya... quite concerned


Mtl JP  01:59:53 GMT - 01/21/2023  
yes !
hopefully this sort of thing will go on to 23:59
-
(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden “looks forward” to meeting with Kevin McCarthy, the new Republican House speaker, to discuss a variety of issues, but negotiation on raising the US debt limit is off the table, the White House said Friday night.


Caribbean! Rafe...  20:04:59 GMT - 01/20/2023  
Mtl JP 19:28 GMT 01/20/2023 - My Profile

In this recession... Buy Copper Stocks... more valuable than gold... that's why space exploration is taking off in a big way because they need a lot of copper to build all that equipment in order to go out into outer space to find more of it. And not to forget they've used according to my own fundamentalist observations more than 6 billion live fire rounds....So go figure...


Mtl JP  19:28:36 GMT - 01/20/2023  
Gold ends higher, tallies 5th straight weekly advance

currently thanks to prospects of lower cost of money


Mtl JP  19:15:48 GMT - 01/20/2023  
 
today's FED yakers
-
* Harker Says
- Fed Can Lower Inflation Without a Recession
-nready to downshift to 25-basis-point rate hikes

Waller (before the Council on Foreign Relations in New York) says
- more tightening is needed, supports 25-bp hikes
- backs quarter-point interest rate hike at next meeting


Mtl JP  16:45:11 GMT - 01/20/2023  
EURO 1.0841
-
on a percent vs percent move euro is lagging compared to s&p

odds are puppy is verging on a rally
S at 1.08/1.0775, R 1.089 and 00

waller yaks at 1pm but ... he ll hard pressed to correct lael's "restrictive and balanced" treasonous to the inflation fighting FED mistake


Mtl JP  16:10:17 GMT - 01/20/2023  
 
brainard's mistake


GVI Forex 08:09:06 GMT - 01/20/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

With the Year of the Rabbit upon us, the Asian markets shrugged off some of the skittishness seen overnight on Wall Street, attempting a bit of a risk-on rally. Thin liquidity will keep gains capped, though, and fears of an economic slowdown along with worries over the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer are unlikely to fade away.

MORNING BID-Fret about debt?



Mtl JP  01:31:03 GMT - 01/20/2023  
while prancing in africa yellen began a "debt issuance suspension period" to last through June 5 that suspends investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund

sofar
- s&p at 3925 (
-- Standard & Poor's AA+ -10 Jun 2013 outlook upgrade

nb/ the double AA is a continuous lower grade hit from the 2011 AAA downgrade




Mtl JP  00:22:58 GMT - 01/20/2023  
 
current FED vs market theme


dc CB  00:06:03 GMT - 01/20/2023  
Fri
first OPEX(monthly) of 2023

as noted many times before----Trading in a class of SPX (S&P Index) Options closed with the CASH market. They will settle based on the Opening Range of the CASH Market - Friday 9:30-9:45 ET

Overnight moves could make or break positions.


Mtl JP  19:36:58 GMT - 01/19/2023  
year-old yellen comedy hour

(depends recommended)

about debt ceiling



Mtl JP  19:04:37 GMT - 01/19/2023  
sofar the FED appears to have lost its pitch deck-ing ability and touch


GVI Forex 18:44:06 GMT - 01/19/2023  
KEY POINTS

Brainard insisted that the Fed won't waiver in its commitment to taming prices that have come down some in recent months, but remain near four-decade highs.

Markets are assigning a near-100% probability that the FOMC will a raise its benchmark interest rate another quarter percentage point on Feb. 1.

"We are determined to stay the course," Brainard said, using a phrase other Fed officials have echoed recently.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard sees high rates ahead even with progress on inflation



Mtl JP  14:48:44 GMT - 01/19/2023  
still on yak deck
-
brainard (voter) at 13.15nyt
williams (voter) at 18.35nyt


Mtl JP  14:36:44 GMT - 01/19/2023  
 
"risk" types

don't want to hear notting about tight / tighter

seems to me FED has s/t communicatgion job on its hands


Mtl JP  11:29:48 GMT - 01/19/2023  
 
US 10-YR 3.373% -0.002
"risk" 3918

"Several central bank leaders including Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard will also speak throughout the day on the path forward" - cnbc


Mtl JP  09:30:44 GMT - 01/19/2023  
 
desperately seeking attention
-
DAVOS, Switzerland — The European Central Bank will not stop with one single 50 basis point hike at its next rate-setting meetings, a board member told CNBC Thursday.

“It will not stop after a single 50 basis point hike, that’s for sure,” Klaas Knot, who serves as the governor of the Dutch central bank, said regarding the ECB’s upcoming moves.

European Central Bank member says market is mispricing rate hikes, expects more to come



Mtl JP  09:26:12 GMT - 01/19/2023  
 
NZ's arden to resign


GVI Forex 07:15:10 GMT - 01/19/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

The December snowstorms that sent Southwest Airlines and U.S. air travel into chaos last year may be sending a chill through markets' soft-landing hopes for the broader economy.

MORNING BID-Turbulence



Mtl JP  22:44:03 GMT - 01/18/2023  
 
for posterity
Fed Talks: A Conversation With St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

bottom line: point five boyzngals

Fed Talks: A Conversation With St. Louis Fed President James Bullard



Mtl JP  17:37:21 GMT - 01/18/2023  
jeff cox:

- Market pricing Wednesday morning pointed to a 94.3% probability of a 0.25 percentage point hike at the Fed’s next meeting.
- Economic data Wednesday helped solidify the idea that after a succession of aggressive hikes, the Fed is ready to take its foot off the brake a bit more.

Markets fully price in quarter-point interest rate hike in February as inflation slows



Mtl JP  17:30:44 GMT - 01/18/2023  
according to gregg robb
-
"U.S. industrial output falls sharply in December, sparking talk of factory ‘recession’ "


Mtl JP  17:15:51 GMT - 01/18/2023  
 
GAP
not for the faint of heart
-
Qtn of controlling own risk


Mtl JP  16:28:59 GMT - 01/18/2023  
fed vp brainard is , at last check, a hawk


GVI Forex 16:25:41 GMT - 01/18/2023  
This may have been a catalyst for the stock market retreat. Came out earlier

Morgan Stanley's (MS) Wilson reiterates call for 10% S&P 500 correction

Newsquawk.com



Mtl JP  16:25:33 GMT - 01/18/2023  
more:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/federal-reserve-chairman-jerome-powell-tests-positive-for-covid.html


PAR 16:24:41 GMT - 01/18/2023  
Did he go to China or did he touch some classified documents?


Mtl JP  16:21:37 GMT - 01/18/2023  
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tests positive for Covid - cnbc


Mtl JP  16:15:10 GMT - 01/18/2023  
 
BOOM!

I eat crow


Mtl JP  15:08:35 GMT - 01/18/2023  
 
alleged bullard hawk-talk having lifespan of a fruitfly


GVI Forex 14:54:17 GMT - 01/18/2023  
Bullard (non voter) Talking hawkish


Mtl JP  10:03:58 GMT - 01/18/2023  
 
GBPUSD 1.2362

yesterday hot wage report
today "UK inflation rate dips for second straight month to hit 10.5%"

as the GBP flies against the dlr



Mtl JP  09:19:22 GMT - 01/18/2023  
US 10-YR 3.49% -0.043

DLRx 101.85 (down)
EURO 1.0845 (up)
"risk" 4011.25 (niaaah)


Mtl JP  09:03:57 GMT - 01/18/2023  
wonder why not:
-
'Believe me, you don't want to get into litigation with them.'


dc CB  23:57:49 GMT - 01/17/2023  
«To us, Japanese interest rate policy resembles the Berlin Wall of the late Cold War era, a stale anachronism that must sooner or later fall,»

«If the past is prologue and if the great bond bull market is over, then on form, we are looking at what could be a very prolonged and perhaps gradual move higher in interest rates»: Jim Grant.

Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Japan is losing control of the bond market. Jim Grant, editor of «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», believes this could trigger a shock to the global financial system. He also explains why he expects further surges in inflation

Intv posted on ZH--



Mtl JP  17:16:55 GMT - 01/17/2023  
almost curious if anyone is surprised that some players would actually be buying ecb's outlook hawk talk


Mtl JP  16:44:44 GMT - 01/17/2023  
EURO 1.0790
-
technically: S at 1.08/1.0780/75


Mtl JP  16:34:16 GMT - 01/17/2023  
explain Tanaya Macheel & Alex Harring on cnbc:

"Dow falls more than 350 points, weighed down by Goldman Sachs shares"


Mtl JP  15:56:23 GMT - 01/17/2023  
EURO 1.08
-
will be needing more moRE hawk talk from "policymakers"

ie.: more significant (50bps+) + "coming meetings"
yayayayaya lets here the anti-inflationary heroic battle growl !


Mtl JP  15:53:06 GMT - 01/17/2023  
EURO 1.08


Mtl JP  15:47:07 GMT - 01/17/2023  
 
euro down
- DLR uP
-- "risk" DOwn

dog eat dog: one dies so another lives


Mtl JP  15:44:05 GMT - 01/17/2023  
 
hehehe thx Jay.
looks like some one (inside?) had that info earlier


GVI Forex 15:43:20 GMT - 01/17/2023  
For those looking for the news catalyst in the EUR fall

ECB policymakers are reportedly beginning to consider a 25bp hike in March following a 50bp increase in February, via Bloomberg citing sources.

Newsquawk.com



Mtl JP  15:18:42 GMT - 01/17/2023  
EURO 1.0821 needs to hold 108


PAR 15:01:29 GMT - 01/17/2023  
Algorithms trade a weak opening of US stocks as a strong close.
90% of the time it works.



PAR 14:53:29 GMT - 01/17/2023  
A 10% drop in the value of the US dollar is a 1% increase in US multinationals' profits.



Mtl JP  14:36:30 GMT - 01/17/2023  
US 10-YR 3.544 +0.033
SnP 4023 (uP)
-
yield and "risk" in same direction is incongruent


PAR 12:50:02 GMT - 01/17/2023  
MS earnings are above estimates. Imho GS is very overvalued.


GVI Forex 12:24:37 GMT - 01/17/2023  
GS Q4 earnings below estimates


Mtl JP  11:42:53 GMT - 01/17/2023  
US 10-YR 3.548% +0.037
-
on yak deck today:
- williams

"Many traders are hoping for the central bank to further slow, or completely pause, rate hikes this year."


Mtl JP  11:25:18 GMT - 01/17/2023  
from cnbc f-page:
-
CEOs are the most pessimistic they’ve been in more than a decade as world faces a slowdown

IMF chief: Growth will bottom out in 2023 and bounce back next year



GVI Forex 08:47:23 GMT - 01/17/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga While Chinese

While Chinese economic data didn't come in worse than markets had feared, investors still couldn't come to terms with the scale of the economic pain being felt in the world's second-largest economy.my Bid - UglybDuckling

Morning Bid: Ugly Duckling



GVI Forex 22:59:27 GMT - 01/16/2023  
Jan 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. A batch of top-tier economic data from China, including fourth quarter GDP growth, will grab the spotlight in Asia on Tuesday, and the numbers are not expected to be pretty.

MORNING BID-China's Q4 data dump



Mtl JP  10:42:29 GMT - 01/16/2023  
 
US Dollar Shorts Become Favorite Trade as Fed Seen Slowing Hikes

(Bloomberg) -- Investors are selling the dollar in droves as bets mount that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest-rate hikes.



Pain trade a-coming ?


Mtl JP  09:46:05 GMT - 01/16/2023  
note self
-
US - Bond markets closed on Monday


Mtl JP  09:37:33 GMT - 01/16/2023  
Bloomberg January 15, 2023
Huge Sanctions Are Looming for the Fuel That Powers the World

..."has some oil-market watchers concerned about the potential for price spikes."

great. let watchers be concerned.
traders are rubbing hands.


Mtl JP  09:02:44 GMT - 01/16/2023  
 
JPN 10-YR 0.498% -0.005

"successfully" capped


Mtl JP  08:32:46 GMT - 01/16/2023  
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Debt-Limit-Letter-to-Congress-McCarthy-20230113.pdf


PAR 08:18:24 GMT - 01/16/2023  
Which figures is Yellen looking at? Debt ceiling already hit?

Debt ceiling



Mtl JP  23:40:04 GMT - 01/15/2023  
lets talk about confidence
-
U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress - cnbc

as she departs Tuesday on 11-day trip to visit three African countries central to President Joe Biden’s strategy to rejuvenate ties on the continent and counter China’s influence across the developing world.



Mtl JP  22:57:58 GMT - 01/15/2023  
Japan 10yr 0.503% -0.004


Mtl JP  10:52:08 GMT - 01/14/2023  
worl bank blaming the FED :

..."Global growth has slowed to the extent that the
global economy is perilously close to falling into
recession—defined as a contraction in annual
global per capita income—only three years after
emerging from the pandemic-induced recession of
2020. Very high inflation has triggered
unexpectedly rapid and synchronous monetary
policy tightening around the world to contain it," ...


January 2023
Global Economic Prospects

A World Bank Group Flagship Report (198 page pdf)



Mtl JP  17:46:56 GMT - 01/13/2023  
OPINION - COMMENTARY
-
Insana says the case is clear that inflation is over

PUBLISHED FRI, JAN 13 2023 - CNBC



Hk Delusional Hallucinating Dusty  03:38:12 GMT - 01/13/2023  
JP- thank you for your observations. gl gt to you.



dc CB  22:44:21 GMT - 01/12/2023  
them foreigners gobbled-up them 30's

Record Foreign Demand For Blowout 30Y Treasury Auction Sends Yields Tumbling Across The Curve


PS: watch the 5, not the 10
(For context, 2023 has started very aggressively for bonds (after their worst year ever) with 5Y yields down 46bps!!!---ZH)

We close the week with one of the strongest 30Y auctions on record.



GVI Forex 17:38:23 GMT - 01/12/2023  
10 year US bond yields slipping back below 3.60%, fx follows


Mtl JP  15:10:44 GMT - 01/12/2023  
 
for the record
CPI 6.5 vs 6.5 exptd vs 7.1 last

i.e ... a wash


Mtl JP  15:06:19 GMT - 01/12/2023  
on yak deck
-
harker -- done
11:30 bullard
12:40 barkin


Mtl JP  11:06:55 GMT - 01/12/2023  
 
DLRx 102.80
-
all quiet on the front
for now


GVI Forex 06:58:18 GMT - 01/12/2023  
SYDNEY, Jan 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

The main surprise in Asia was provided by a Yomiuri newspaper report that the Bank of Japan will review the side effects of its yield curve control (YCC) at a policy meeting next week and may take additional steps to correct distortions in the market.

Morning Bid: Rip YCC?



HK Kevin  04:28:33 GMT - 01/12/2023  
Mtl JP 22:13 GMT, look like 3.5-4.5 is a congested area in the weekly chart. May be trading within this area for a few months


Mtl JP  22:13:06 GMT - 01/11/2023  
 
NatGas $3.68
-
wont last


Mtl JP  15:03:58 GMT - 01/11/2023  
It is possible that tom's CPI will make market rejoice about small business' pricing power misery (dog eat dog) :

Small Business Optimism Slump Signals Profit Margins Poised To Plunge



Mtl JP  14:57:11 GMT - 01/11/2023  
DLRx 103.0ish
EURO 107.70
-
sitting n scratching nogging about market reacting to CPI tom:
I am thinking it will make "risk" (SnP 3963 atm) pop uP some
and
DLR to lose some ground. That should see euro (1.7.70) go uP some as well.

tia for views


Mtl JP  11:30:28 GMT - 01/11/2023  
oh la la-aahhh
-
Jamie Dimon: ‘Retirees, grandmothers, lower-income folks' have been hurt by crypto ...and it was a shame.”
The JPM CEO said in a televised interview Tuesday that it was the government’s responsibility to protect investors.


Mtl JP  11:17:41 GMT - 01/11/2023  
DLRx 103.04
some "sounds" this morning
-
Gundlach Says Listen to Bond Market Rather Than Fed on Rates
(Bloomberg) -- Prominent fixed-income manager Jeffrey Gundlach said investors trying to figure out how the interest-rate situation will play out should pay attention to the bond market rather than the Federal Reserve

Bloomberg
Markets Are Underestimating Inflation Again, BlackRock and Fidelity Warn

MoneyWise
‘Get out of these distorted markets’: Mohamed El-Erian issues a dire warning to stock and bond investors — but also offered 1 shockproof asset for safety


Mtl JP  23:07:45 GMT - 01/10/2023  
GVI Forex 22:20 it is as if players are tone deaf to what the FED gang is saying OR the FED gang is not making itself lound n clear


GVI Forex 22:20:46 GMT - 01/10/2023  
(Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed on bets the upcoming consumer price index will show further softening, which could help build the case for the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate hikes — even as some officials say it’s too early to declare victory over inflation.

Stocks Bounce Back With Brewing Optimism Over CPI: Markets Wrap



Mtl JP  18:46:49 GMT - 01/10/2023  
3.624% up +0.107
but what drama:
sofar only bond mice see bowman's cheese but rest aren't bitting
yet


Mtl JP  18:31:08 GMT - 01/10/2023  
DLRx 103.07
things are, relatively speaking, so far dead in the water
-
Fed’s Bowman says there’s ‘a lot more work to do’ to bring down inflation - jeff cox 12:00am

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she expects more interest rate increases ahead, with higher rates to prevail for a while until inflation is subdued.
“I expect that once we achieve a sufficiently restrictive federal funds rate, it will need to remain at that level for some time,” she said.

Powell says Fed might have to make unpopular decisions to stabilize prices - jeff cox 09:00am

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that stabilizing prices requires making tough decisions that can be unpopular politically.
In other remarks, the central bank leader said the Fed is “not, and will not be, a ‘climate policymaker.’”


Mtl JP  17:21:27 GMT - 01/10/2023  
next notables
-
Thursday
- harker
- CPI
- bullard


Mtl JP  16:28:03 GMT - 01/10/2023  
boj the game is between a cat (the FED) and mice (market players)

The mice know jumbo hikes are now done. Which is what currently is helping stocks.

The cat knows that IF rates were to drop sharply, its inflation fighting effort would be anulled seeing player eagerness.

So the cat is currently playing a delicate game with the mice' expectations about the size of the next interest rate setting.

The game has little to do with inflation itself (that is FED's material) and mostly everything with managing (and pricing) market player expectation.


tokyo boj  15:49:53 GMT - 01/10/2023  
Mtl JP 15:35 GMT 01/10/2023
Hawkish fed as expected stox free fall dji i think cant take yesterdays high

inflation is seriours problem yes fed will fail to solve that but they are just trying

fed printed too much $ created inflation


Mtl JP  15:35:40 GMT - 01/10/2023  
whack-a-mole kind of trading day


Mtl JP  14:57:42 GMT - 01/10/2023  
euro 1.074x
puppy has a bit of bullish tone
-
S1.07, 1.068, 1065


Mtl JP  14:49:42 GMT - 01/10/2023  
next up
-
10:35 ECB's de Cos, Knot
13:00 yellen will be offering $40 bln 3yr paper


Mtl JP  14:40:01 GMT - 01/10/2023  
"risk" materially higher post-jerome jibber
NOT what players want to hear from jerome:
-
Traders don’t want to believe the Fed, so get used to a lot of choppiness - Bob Pisani

Powell stresses need for Fed's political independence while tackling inflation - jeff cox

* Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday noted that stabilizing prices requires making tough decisions that can be unpopular politically.

* In other remarks, the central bank leader said the Fed is “not, and will not be, a ‘climate policymaker.’”



Mtl JP  10:21:48 GMT - 01/10/2023  
Lots of opinions and plans from central bankers on deck today

BoC's MacKlem, ECB's de Cos and Schnabe, Fed's Powell, BoE's Bailey

The overall drift likely will be a pushback against cut expectations. The overlords are not yet ready to their tightening "work" be crushed up by too much "mami it is over" unbridled easing enthusiasm.

markets are just itching and biting the bridle and I will not be surprised to see the CBankers try - jerome's record is rather iffy in this - to discourage dovish perceptions.


tokyo boj  07:21:42 GMT - 01/10/2023  

Sell EURJPY
Entry: 141.80 Target: Stop: add later
hk ab 06:22 GMT 01/10/2023
AB san what do you think about jpy?
i am long jpy short gold and europe and america stox
i am with you AB san


hk ab  06:22:11 GMT - 01/10/2023  
so far, my only surprise is yen.






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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