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Mtl JP  16:24:35 GMT - 01/25/2023  
debt limit, what debt limit ?
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WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is racing to boost its production of artillery shells by 500 percent within two years ... as it invests billions of dollars to make up for shortfalls ...

Pentagon Will Increase Artillery Production Sixfold for Ukraine - nyt



Mtl JP  16:00:22 GMT - 01/25/2023  
here is one ironic levity about "productivity" having reached peak:
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Google job cuts hit 1,800 employees in California, including 27 massage therapists - cnbc


Mtl JP  15:19:45 GMT - 01/25/2023  
frank
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yellen (born in 1946) on financial crisis:
“You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be,” - june 2017

IF ... by "our lifetimes" she intended her generation and each generation is 30yrs long, then yellen, at 76 is (30+30+16=76) is half way thru "our generation". Take off the 5 yrs since her "hope n belief" and there is 11 yrs left of no financial crisis period.


swiss frank  13:06:03 GMT - 01/25/2023  
JP..... Thanks for reading that link. Me- I don't know. Meaning I don't know. On the one hand it makes a lot of sense. While there are several MAJOR concerns in the global macro economy, one is clearly bank liquidity.

For now its ok. It can even be drawn down without a large basis for concern. The proposal made somewhat sense that if warranted/needed the Fed can pause, and let banks raise rates to attract more capital. As the world knows bank rates have been too low for too long. The next

BIG BIG BIG problem is the debt ceiling. Yellen yeah bla bla bla we can do this and that and that and this. Then do it, and who gives a F if the ceiling gets raised or not. The government can shut, and walk away from cultural dance festival and tree planting funding. Politicos can bicker to the end of time as they will. Maybe the line does get drawn here. Hard core republicans won't vote for the increase unless they're attached to spending cuts. Democrats won't cut spending. Its not in any politicians DNA. So maybe MacCarthy doesn't last. Fine. He's out with no replacement in sight.

Meanwhile nothing moves. The big risk is what happens next? Financial armageddon? Does the ineptitude/inability to find common ground or common sense override the consequences of debt default? Maybe (IMO).

And here's where it gets tricky. The question for markets is where to hide? Govt bonds? Probably not given the risk of going to 0. Cash? Probably not at least beyond FDIC coverage since the events would likely trigger banks falling like dominoes. Stocks and or Corp debt? Maybe. Although only the strong would survive minus some contagion. Currencies? Don't know. The fallout could be a lot worse for non-dollars. Commodities? Yeah if you can hold the physical. Otherwise it's just paper. Private property? Yeah probably. Worst case is you got a place to live. Crypto? Wellllllll.... It's an alternative. Maybe. But buyer beware.
So yeah Janet- What do you got?


Mtl JP  06:23:50 GMT - 01/25/2023  
swiss frank 16:01 - more re link
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this , partially, is what the FED - like a laboratory disinfectant - is dealing with:

‘We don’t want to work for jerks’: The impact of bad bosses, toxic workplaces and gaslighting on your mental health. (It’s like a dysfunctional marriage.)



Mtl JP  00:31:09 GMT - 01/25/2023  
swiss frank 16:01 - re link

"Money Supply Shrinks for the First Time. What It Says About Inflation and the Economy."
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/m2-money-supply-recession-51674569554?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

The abouve Qtn is a putz question. As the oceans need shark to keep the gene pool healthy and not allow corpses of dead whales pollute the ecosystems and take over.

CBs for the last 14 were so accommodating. They allowed legions of awful VCs to fund absolutely abhorrent tech companies while allowing corporate raiders to pile cheap debt and destroy brands at a fast rate. To me the list of dead unicorns is encouraging. to others tragic.

What is left is rotting corpses of corporate greed that no amount of financial engineering can save while keeping inefficient non profitable businesses looking for taxpayer handouts. I can only speculate what the FED gang thinks of Biden / Yellen gov't meddling in US entitlements… a $1.7 trillion budget with a 7,000 page brick of freebies for the vapid congress constituencies.

In the meantime VCs are sitting on $300 Billion of cash not deployed, like if looking for the next unicorn is the only thing they know how to do or forcing boards to keep doing stock buybacks.

I am hoping the FED is not really worrying about the financial well being of the big banks but limiting their ability to keep funding badly run companies that keep overpaying under performing employees and making things more expensive for the peasants.

If tech cos shed 200,000 employees, I hope the FED will start looking at ways to measure not so much solvent clients who are up on their loans but more a measure of their profitability and their deteriorating balance sheets. I never see enough of what CBs do besides rating the kind of debt the banks own. If a bank owns enough AAA sh.t , they don’t bother digging. That was stupid in 2008 and not much smarter today. Sofar not many really really really rich economists out there.

FED needs to be agent of change: it needs to purge lazy entitled fukks and needs to revive respect for fairly rewarded work. IMO that is why it needs to stick to 5.25/50% (and more if they detect market disrespect) rate AND it needs to keep it there longer than all the lazy and inefficient one are able to withstand.


swiss frank  16:01:51 GMT - 01/23/2023  
This could be pretty bullish for US stocks.... Maybe.

Hell or High Water






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