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Mtl JP  10:47:35 GMT - 06/07/2023  
WSJ Scott Patterson's When Markets Melt Down, These Traders Cash In theme
Why AI Is the Key to Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Valuation - wsj

$1 Trillion Debt Deluge Threatens Market Calm
Some on Wall Street fear that bond issuance that was shelved until a debt-ceiling deal was passed will overwhelm buyers, jolting markets and raising short-term borrowing costs

How a Chatbot Went Rogue
Mental-health software used by a national nonprofit was built to deliver pre-written replies. Then it got generative AI.

Lawmakers Try Again to Curb Visa, Mastercard Fees, With Broader Support
Lawmakers plan to re-up proposed legislation that would give merchants the power to process many credit cards over different networks.

Mtl JP  10:35:08 GMT - 06/07/2023  
Rafe -- for a practical live education about GREED (but not only),
read up on the LIV-PGA Tour merger

Mtl JP  10:21:12 GMT - 06/07/2023  
USDCAD 1.3385
BoC rate decision on deck this fine day
economist pundits ("experts") appear divided about no/hike
I have a slight bias towards a "skip".

side issue:
1) More Canadians missing payments as they sink deeper into debt: Equifax
The quarter�s increase marks a shift where more of the consumers missing monthly debt payments are homeowners

effect: there should be bargains coming as folks dispose of earlier frivolous purchases

2) Higher int rates are good for banks profitability. BoD bank stocks.

Mtl JP  09:57:38 GMT - 06/07/2023  
euro keeps finding Sup at 1.0670/65

should be matter of time before it gives

Mtl JP  06:31:05 GMT - 06/07/2023  
EURO 1.0675
christine will be socking it to the peasants, supposedly for their good:
“The latest available data suggest that indicators of underlying inflationary pressures remain high and, although some are showing signs of moderation, there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked,”

lagarde 5 June 2023

dc CB  20:13:44 GMT - 06/06/2023  
Finally, as a reminder, the world and their pet rabbit is short S&P futures right now...

ZH---Massive Short Squeeze Sends Small Caps Soaring

Mtl JP  16:11:28 GMT - 06/06/2023  
from NYT
A new report projects that economic growth will slow this year and remain weak in 2024.

The World Bank said on Tuesday that the global economy remained in a “precarious state” and warned of sluggish growth this year and next as rising interest rates slow consumer spending and business investment, and threaten the stability of the financial system.

World Bank Projects Weak Global Growth Amid Rising Interest Rates

Mtl JP  14:20:43 GMT - 06/06/2023  
yellen watch
"GOP lawmakers warn the world they’re not on board with Secretary Yellen’s plan.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has spent more than two years promising foreign leaders that the U.S. is committed to a new global deal to raise taxes on large companies. Now Republicans in Congress have a warning for the rest of the world: Don’t believe her."

Congress’s Global-Tax Revolt

Mtl JP  13:58:41 GMT - 06/06/2023  
EURO 1.0670
still trading in a range. ECB suits been clear about hiking at their meeting so players price that in. On the other hand , the FED gang s been wishy washy (wink wink) about their inflation-fighting hike at their next meeting (next week) but players are trying to goad - price - a pause.

this builds to a potential new DLR speculative trade

Mtl JP  10:57:31 GMT - 06/06/2023  
stocks - all around - wavering : asia, europe, us ...

US 10-YR 3.668% -0.025 LAST - 6:55:52 AM EDT

Mtl JP  10:35:05 GMT - 06/06/2023  
Rafe... 19:05 / I do mind I don't explain comedy
here is a link that may help:

A universal basic income of £1,600 a month is to be trialled in England for the first time in a pilot programme.

Will Stronge, the director of research at the thinktank Autonomy, which is backing the plan, said of the £1,600 figure: “This is a substantial amount. Universal basic income usually covers people’s basic needs but we want to see what effect this unconditional lump sum has on people’s mental and physical health, whether they choose to work or not.

Universal basic income of £1,600 a month to be trialled in two places in England

Mtl JP  10:26:21 GMT - 06/06/2023  
USDCAD 1.3425
BoC tomorrow
-fwiw economists (i.e. "experts") coalescing around BoC pausing tomorrow

Mtl JP  09:58:59 GMT - 06/06/2023  
EURO 1.0690
puppy not finding continued oomph N of 1.07

low 1.06 still prefered , just not fast in a straight line

relative int rates still driving pairs

GVI Forex 07:39:57 GMT - 06/06/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee:

Markets are increasingly looking for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes next week, and, amid a blackout on Fed speakers, will be focusing heavily on economic data in the days ahead.

Morning Bid: Nervy markets back on central bank watch

Caribbean! Rafe...  19:16:50 GMT - 06/05/2023  
Perhaps, It would be the best outcome on the country's debt, if 300 million Americans were able to save towards buying bonds at every weekend/month end.

300 million people saving the minimum of 10-20 dolars per day, in favor of buying into treasuries and then topping up and reinvesting that principal & returns with what they saved during that period of time as well... Power of collective compounding is it?

Collective wisdom of the herds?

Caribbean! Rafe...  19:05:21 GMT - 06/05/2023  
Mtl JP 23:46 GMT 06/04/2023 - My Profile

Sorry my typo 3=2

your 23:46 confused me.

do you mind explaining

Mtl JP  18:42:22 GMT - 06/05/2023  
honey on lips, poison heart
if u r interested google
"Why Janet Yellen Doesn’t Lose Sleep Over U.S. Borrowing" or something similar

Mtl JP  18:09:11 GMT - 06/05/2023  
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period

- begins on midnight of the second Saturday preceding an FOMC meeting and lasts until midnight the full day following the meeting, unless otherwise noted. Federal Reserve policy limits the extent to which staff and FOMC participants can speak publicly or grant interviews during the blackout period. Speakers covering monetary policy, banking, or economic issues are not available during the blackout period.

In light of upcoming June 14th policy decision, FED gumflappers are in their blackout period since past weekend.

dc CB  14:15:08 GMT - 06/05/2023  

dc CB  14:13:31 GMT - 06/05/2023  
Services not so hot

5Y now --- 3.12%

Mtl JP  13:44:10 GMT - 06/05/2023  
everything about early start to the week seems "slight" and "some":

us rates uP slightly, usd slightly bid, european rates up "some"

leaves me with impression that dlr's upside is likely limited.

BoC on wednesday
friday stats can releases its labour force survey for May

dc CB  13:36:17 GMT - 06/05/2023  
5Y Note ---- 3.917%

Mtl JP  09:29:06 GMT - 06/05/2023  
EURO 1.0693
Qtn now is only how fast to low 06

GVI Forex 08:49:07 GMT - 06/05/2023  
All eyes are on interest rates to start the week, in Europe as well as the United States.

Chris Weston, head of research at Australia’s Pepperstone, called Friday’s U.S. payrolls report a “nirvana” of strong job creation and weaker wage growth, and it continues to colour everything.

Marketmind: Hawkish pause for thought?

Mtl JP  07:04:16 GMT - 06/05/2023  
Sun, June 4, 2023 at 4:14 p.m. GMT-4
Saudi Arabia said Sunday it would make a voluntary cut of 1 million barrels of oil a day as part of a deal between OPEC and its allies. The United Arab Emirates and some other large producers also extended their voluntary cuts

Mtl JP  00:07:42 GMT - 06/05/2023  
Imminent // ready to take place : happening soon �often used of something bad or dangerous seen as menacingly near

maybe DB wrote this for the bestial degenerate speculators
as mentioned by WSJ (and other outlets):
A Wave of Defaults�and a Recession�Is �Imminent,� Deutsche Bank Forecasts

By Katy Barnato

Mtl JP  23:46:15 GMT - 06/04/2023  
Rafe ... really bud ... you should have included a bladder-stress warning before "People got conscience enough to do 3 honest full time jobs. It's because they want to"... next time ok ? please

Mtl JP  22:41:39 GMT - 06/04/2023  
Another bladder stresser curtesy Medvedev via POLITICO
LONDON — British politicians are now a legitimate military target for Moscow, a senior Russian official said, after the U.K.’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly argued Ukraine has the right to use force within Russian borders.

Top Russian official says British politicians now a legitimate military target

Caribbean! Rafe...  19:23:36 GMT - 06/03/2023  
If people know what they are doing then yes they can overlook and go buy equities and whatever else they think, but mind you though. The debt problem is so high that I feel many companies just won't be there in a few years, and rather staying out of them is better than buying into them.

Just be patient, and be on the lookout for financial scams and schemes etc. Those happen in the last stages of economic slumps etc etc and signal initial rallies of bull runs. Why? Regulators/FBI etc get involved when scams abound, and that makes people feel safe, smarter and confident and fearful enough from regulatory bogey men to invest their money wisely!

It's just that people either need to get literate and become twice wise to escape from the clutches of scammers or experience suffering at the hands of scammers and phonies etc etc.

Caribbean! Rafe...  19:04:29 GMT - 06/03/2023  
And the third phase is the good phase. But why... They are not thieves are they?

People got conscience enough to do 3 honest full time jobs. It's because they want to pay off their debt, they wanna improve, they don't wanna waste time and do evil things, and they just wanna spend their time doing good if not for others then for themselves, which directly keeps crime rates very low, and indirectly builds super good collective karma for everyone else in that country too!

Time and Truth...

With regards to markets going into slow phase blah blah. so what!. let it be, no big deal in that. The best thing to do in the mean time is let people do their thing and prepare for the next phase! And by that time the markets will be ready to soar. In the mean time, save all money into bonds every 1 dollar goes into savings and accumulates towards buying government bonds.

Let americans understand that in the future, the bonds they now buy, will become the #1 stable source of income for them, and income which will start overflowing into multibaggers meaning 100x and above.

If markets are slow phase then it's better for the locals/citizens/people living there.

Caribbean! Rafe...  18:39:50 GMT - 06/03/2023  
Let me ask you, if the fed is converting outflows into inflows then where did that money come from and what did it go into, additionally what caused them to do that.

They are accounting for everything is it not or that fellow dug up some shocking details of what the fed is not telling the public... So now let's be clear... is this a cover up? My fundamental observation is no, it is not a cover-up.

And well, all you guys know better than me so your views are greatly as always appreciated.

and most important,... he used the word fuckery? hu taut him dat word!!!!

""" And finally, the piece de resistance of Fed fuckery - for domestic (large and small) commercial banks, NSA (actual) flows were -$28.4 billion, while SA (magic) flows were +$102.5 billion!"""

Mtl JP  07:40:14 GMT - 06/03/2023  
they told him to read:
fellow merrikans ... ‘We averted an economic crisis’ : Biden hails debt-ceiling deal in Oval Office address

and then ...
Biden says he’ll sign bill to lift debt ceiling on Saturday

dc CB  21:51:27 GMT - 06/02/2023  

by Tyler Durden
Friday, Jun 02, 2023 - 04:40 PM

Tl; dr: The Fed reportts that domestic (large and small) commercial banks saw NSA flows of -$28.4 billion, while SA flows were +$102.5 billion!

As if it needs to be said, non-seasonally-adjusted deposit flows are 'actual flows'? And why do we care about 'seasonally-adjusted' deposits - they aren't real assets?

For some more context, the deposit delta (between real outflows and SA outflows) since March 1 is now $150BN+

It seems The Fed is using the 'fog of banking crisis war' - knowing this data drops late on a Friday night - to pull the wool over depositors and investors eyes.

Caribbean! Rafe...  19:01:20 GMT - 06/02/2023  

FED: One rate decision they get praised for good job done, by the next rate decision they are made to look like "Dork Wayyderrr". Some flip headed commentator standing on their necks ready with an axe...

Wonder what kung fu granny plans on doing about the public's ficklemindnesss., Edu-Bonds Perhaps...

Mtl JP  14:25:07 GMT - 06/02/2023  
degenerate gambler (haha):
who does not like Fridays, especially after the fix or into US stocks' last half hour into the close eh ?

Mtl JP  14:22:50 GMT - 06/02/2023  
euro 1.0733

testing LoD

Mtl JP  14:08:14 GMT - 06/02/2023  
DLRx 103.65
who wants to play this assertion
The Drivers of Inflation Are Reversing. The Case for Fed Cuts" - Barron's

Mtl JP  13:53:53 GMT - 06/02/2023  
"Treasury yields jump after much stronger-than-expected jobs report" - cnbc

"risk" enthusiasts rage
means the FED's inflation-fighting job is far FAR from over
just not a theme on menu du jour today

Mtl JP  13:41:45 GMT - 06/02/2023  
EURO 1.0761
Low 1.0733ish , res 1.0765/75

break out N of 75 should open up approx 100-pip hunt uP

GVI Forex 12:28:06 GMT - 06/02/2023  
Watch hourly wages in the jobs report.

Mtl JP  11:09:18 GMT - 06/02/2023  
rate peak & glee by global investors

"robust U.S. labor markets" are current inflation-fighting FED's Némésis

could be ... peak of glee ?

GVI Forex 10:49:04 GMT - 06/02/2023  
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With the U.S. debt ceiling removed, world markets see the sky again - encouraged that robust U.S. labor markets continue to defy recession fears as interest rates near peaks.

Morning Bid: Jubilant markets eye jobs in June jump

GVI Forex 10:43:47 GMT - 06/02/2023  
EURUSD 1.0773

Would need to break 1.0830 for an outside week

Last week�s high at 1.0758 is the low so far today

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP  10:40:36 GMT - 06/02/2023  
dog eat dog (as it happens commentary, curtesy Ruxandra Iordache)
" Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned oil market speculators they could face further pain ahead, in comments some have read as hinting further supply cuts could be in the cards.

“I keep advising [speculators] that they will be ouching. They did ouch in April. I don’t have to show my cards, I’m not [a] poker player … but I would just tell them, watch out,” he said at the time.

front row seat at the octagon, curtesy fp cnbc

* OPEC+ ministers will meet to determine their next oil production policy steps on June 4 in Vienna.

* They face a market rattled by supply volatility, demand uncertainty and a prospective recession, which could throttle transport fuel consumption.

* Public signals have been conflicting following Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman’s late-May warning that oil speculators could face further pain ahead.

OPEC+ prepares for weekend meeting after Saudi warns speculators to ‘watch out’

Mtl JP  09:54:04 GMT - 06/02/2023  
a fwiw piece courtesy Scott Patterson
potentially extremely generous act of sharing
When Markets Melt Down, These Traders Cash In
Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Nicholas Taleb devised ways to reap huge profits from global chaos—and they expect a lot of chaos in the years ahead

By Scott Patterson in WSJ

Mtl JP  09:27:08 GMT - 06/02/2023  
SnP ("risk") 4248

oh oooohh ... rising

Caribbean! Rafe...  20:08:54 GMT - 06/01/2023  
dc CB 18:42 GMT 06/01/2023

Just keep the faith, and remember God is great!


Tomorrow is a very busy trading day *hint* *hint*

I'm off to zz z z land.

Caribbean! Rafe...  20:02:32 GMT - 06/01/2023  
I got no patience to sit idle and watch such long movies, but just this one time watched every second of part 1 and a few minutes of part 2.

This man changed the fortunes of a barren land using traditional water wisdom. The story of Dhun-1

How this 500 acres was turned into a sanctuary for native trees of Rajasthan-The story of Dhun- 2

Caribbean! Rafe...  19:18:09 GMT - 06/01/2023  
applause! fantastic job china!!!

How China Turned the Desert into Green Forests

Caribbean! Rafe...  19:13:22 GMT - 06/01/2023  
fwiw... worth studying it

How This Electricity-Free Fridge Saved An Indian Ceramics Factory - Big Business

dc CB  18:42:26 GMT - 06/01/2023  
there were 3 treas Bill auctions this morning

28Day-- 5.13%
56Day -- 5.22%
and an unusual 3Day-- 6.15%

so looking at that, which is back to normal---better Yield for the longer duration, 1month v 2month.

Fixed then----Treas jsut needs immediate cash to be thru the Senate and the Biden signature.....thus the 3Day---

Caribbean! Rafe...  17:49:50 GMT - 06/01/2023  
GVI 07:33 GMT 06/01/2023 - My Profile

Did they avoid the default and make the deal or not.

GVI Forex 16:52:01 GMT - 06/01/2023  
Great moves today

Note EURUSD gaot a bid after EURGBP found support and then bounced.

Mtl JP  13:51:08 GMT - 06/01/2023  
fickle news for fickle players

NFP tomorrow s polluted by voters jeffereson and harker blabbing about a hike skip ... duh duh duh... do the clowns have a bead on screwing with players ? hahaha only because players let 'em to ditz them around

PAR 12:51:49 GMT - 06/01/2023  
US real wages keep declining.

GVI Forex 12:33:43 GMT - 06/01/2023  
Yields drop on big downward revision to Q1 unit labor costs 4.2% vs initial 6.3%)

GVI Forex 12:17:15 GMT - 06/01/2023  
ADP upside surprise +278k

Wage metric moderating slightly

Not much reaction

GVI Forex 11:26:38 GMT - 06/01/2023  
USDJPY 15 minute chart

Top 2 blue AT lines drawn off the high of the day => AT directional indicator indicates a potential top

3rd AT blue line => 3rd AT line is often followed by an acceleration (in this case) to the downside... rest is history until an AT red line held

Join the

The Amazing Trader

GVI 07:33:56 GMT - 06/01/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

It's a volatile time for central bank watchers, when comments from one man can flip the script in a moment.

Marketmind: Plotting policy paths for Europe and the US

GVI Forex 22:50:53 GMT - 05/31/2023  
More pause talk

Fed Whisperer” Timiraos says the FOMC is likely to hold interest rates steady in June. The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos writes: Federal Reserve officials signalled they are increasingly likely to hold interest rates steady at their June meeting before preparing to raise them again later this summer.…Forexlive

dc CB  22:03:18 GMT - 05/31/2023  
The FED whisperer with that 70's haircut has got the inside dope---hope it's the good stuff.

The Wall Street Journal
Breaking: Federal Reserve officials signaled they are increasingly likely to hold rates steady at their June meeting, before preparing to raise them again later this summer

GVI Forex 21:51:31 GMT - 05/31/2023  
New term for Fed

“Hawkish pause”

Caribbean! Rafe...  20:31:13 GMT - 05/31/2023  
pretty helpful ways to save some time (by not wasting it)

Time Management For Busy People

Caribbean! Rafe...  19:59:18 GMT - 05/31/2023  

How I Saved $100k In 3 Years (Step By Step)

Caribbean! Rafe...  19:11:08 GMT - 05/31/2023  
Will maternity hospitals function if there is no deal.

dc CB  18:19:01 GMT - 05/31/2023  
Update (1400ET): The Financial Times reports that OPEC has barred several media groups from attending its crucial production meeting in Vienna this weekend, in a move officials said was driven by Saudi Arabia

Reporters from Reuters, Bloomberg News and Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, have been denied invites to Opec’s Vienna headquarters, according to people familiar with the matter.

The ban is unusual and no reason has been given for excluding the media groups, but people familiar with the decision said it had been instigated by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.


GVI Forex 14:59:47 GMT - 05/31/2023  
EURGBP month end sell order heading into 4 PM fixing

GVI Forex 14:11:40 GMT - 05/31/2023  
April JOLTs (job openings) much higher than expected + prior month revised up

GVI Forex 13:46:44 GMT - 05/31/2023  
Much weaker than expected Chi PMI at 40.4

Note it gets rehearsed 2 minutes early to subscribers

GVI Forex 11:08:51 GMT - 05/31/2023  
Light US data today. Watch Chi PMI, JOLTS at 14:00 GMT and London end-of-month fixing at 15:00 GMT

Mtl JP  22:28:14 GMT - 05/30/2023  
crude 69.60
eye-catching price-dump
what IS the market pricing ?

Mtl JP  16:43:18 GMT - 05/30/2023  
DLRx 104 ... basically at midpoint of yesty's range

very soon players will be focussing and pricing relative rates

GVI Forex 11:31:52 GMT - 05/30/2023  
A look at the coming days in US and global markets from Mike Dolan

Out of the frying pan, and into the fire?

The relief this week over the prospect of lifting the US debt ceiling is being overshadowed by the uneasy prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates even higher – and the evaporation of any 2023 easing expectations ahead.

Morning Bid: Debt vote in sight, but Fed squeeze ahead

Mtl JP  09:19:51 GMT - 05/30/2023  
petulant child ?
Musk said tensions between the United States and China “should be a concern for everyone.”

TECH Musk expected to visit China this week, meet officials, sources tell Reuters

Mtl JP  09:13:44 GMT - 05/30/2023  
worked to convince ... “strangling with an intent to kill.”
..."Biden officials, especially at the Treasury Department (that would be yellen and some of her deputy minions) , have worked to convince European and G7 allies of the need to coordinate their efforts, which has slowed down the release of the U.S. executive order." ...

Biden's next move to box China out on sensitive tech

Mtl JP  08:58:02 GMT - 05/30/2023  
Copper 3.66xx = BoD
Last year, the Department of Energy (DOE) launched the Better Grid Initiative that seeks to develop new and upgraded high-capacity electric transmission lines. The initiative will deploy more than $20 billion in federal financing tools, including a $3 billion expansion of the Smart Grid Investment Grant Program; a new $2.5 billion Transmission Facilitation Program and more than $10 billion in grants for states, tribes, and utilities to enhance grid resilience and prevent power outages. The program will also tap into existing tools, including the more than $3 billion Western Area Power Administration Transmission Infrastructure Program, and a number of loan guarantee programs through the Loan Programs Office.

New Debt Limit Deal Commits To Speeding Up Energy Projects

Mtl JP  08:46:02 GMT - 05/30/2023  
crude 71.80, down from 73.35
some players still price-playing odds of yellen defaulting

Mtl JP  10:38:31 GMT - 05/29/2023  
Looking ahead for themes
- Monday Memorial Day
-- Tuesday Cons Conf
--- Wednesday is Beige Book + ADP report
---- Friday Jobs Report

Further out ... FED rates

Anecdotally: ketchup is uP 30% y/y, hotdog & burger rest of condiments uP 9% y/y

GVI Forex 23:30:18 GMT - 05/28/2023  
Note, U.S. and UK markets closed for holidays,

Mtl JP  22:10:10 GMT - 05/28/2023  
SnP 4235
bullish gap

Mtl JP  09:59:00 GMT - 05/28/2023  
according to Brian Evans & Alex Harring via cnbc:

"Stocks rally Friday on hopes for a debt ceiling deal, Nasdaq notches fifth straight week of wins"

Mtl JP  06:16:42 GMT - 05/28/2023  
maaahmeeee .... it is over
the Reps take a knee:

* House Republicans reached a tentative deal with the White House to address the nation’s debt ceiling and avoid a default.

* Speaker Kevin McCarthy said the deal included “historic reductions in spending” and that he planned to have it ready for a vote in the House on Wednesday.

* President Joe Biden said it “represents a compromise, which means not everyone gets what they want.”

White House and Republicans reach a tentative deal to avoid U.S. default

dc CB  16:07:45 GMT - 05/27/2023  
Re: J Yell
once upon a time----but then everyone with a sense of humor go cancelled.

laughing is not permitted

Mtl JP  11:41:27 GMT - 05/27/2023  
Joe Biden Will Not Be Democrats’ 2024 Presidential Nominee, Steve Forbes Says: ‘Not Up to the Job Anymore’

anymore ? lol

Mtl JP  11:02:37 GMT - 05/27/2023  
hahahaha ... feeling duped ... feeling played ... feeling stupid yet ?

May 26, 2023
Dear House Speaker Kevin McCarthy

still have some time left. may I have the next dance ?

... "Based on the most recent available data, we now estimate that Treasury will have insufficient resources to satisfy the government’s obligations if Congress has not raised or suspended the debt limit by June 5,"

Sincerly, Janet L. Yellen

Mtl JP  17:16:27 GMT - 05/26/2023  
Forex 14:51 the closer the date the better odds of a deal

dc CB  16:34:53 GMT - 05/26/2023  
dc CB 18:57 GMT 05/25/2023
5Y yield
more Debt crap tomrow and it will be 4% for the 3 day weekend

5y - 3.599

GVI Forex 14:51:56 GMT - 05/26/2023  
No change except stocks up sharply as the debt ceiling soap opera gets closer to its finale.

GVI Forex 12:39:02 GMT - 05/26/2023  
Hotter PCE

Yields up

USD up

GVI Forex 12:03:23 GMT - 05/26/2023  
US PCE, monthly trade, and Durable Goods reports up next

Mtl JP  09:47:43 GMT - 05/26/2023  
Forex 09:18

these things have a tendency to follow Nature's Law cycles similar to that of beehive, rabbit population, snowfall/avalanche or ... revolution

fortunately or not

GVI Forex 09:18:05 GMT - 05/26/2023  
(Bloomberg) — Germany has been Europe’s economic engine for decades, steering the region through crisis after crisis. But that resilience is breaking down, and it threatens the entire continent.

Europe’s economic engine is breaking down

Mtl JP  00:39:03 GMT - 05/26/2023  
CB 19:45 and all those 300,000,000 people will reach utopia and sip pinacoladas on a beach 24/7

dc CB  19:45:14 GMT - 05/25/2023  
It's unclear how many jobs AI will have to replace to make the "$1 trillion data center" investment viable but Goldman has estimated 300 million middle/upper class jobs in US/Europe will be made obsolete

dc CB  19:40:14 GMT - 05/25/2023  

Today NVDA's market cap rose by $200BN, which is more than the market cap of 472 S&P companies including:

Cisco (197.3BN)
Thermo Fisher ($197BN)
Accenture ($190BN)
AMD ($174BN)
T-Mobile ($168BN)
Adobe ($168BN)
Nike ($166BN)
Disney ($166BN)
Netflix ($162BN)

dc CB  18:57:43 GMT - 05/25/2023  
going into the Cash bond mrkt close at the top of the hour

5Y --- yielding 3.894%

more Debt crap tomrow and it will be 4% for the 3 day weekend

dc CB  17:11:25 GMT - 05/25/2023  
7Y -- 3.827%

7Y auction

dc CB  15:44:06 GMT - 05/25/2023  
Treas Auctions
just done

4Wk - 5.75%
8Wk - 5.35%

Coming up 7Y Note---results after 1PM

dc CB  15:02:42 GMT - 05/25/2023  


and from the BrainTrust

Mtl JP  14:17:55 GMT - 05/25/2023  
EURO 1.0723
looks like the A to JP 10:14 is that breaking South of 1.07 is not going to be a cakewalk
on the otherhand for the puppy to regain uP momentum, it ll need to breach high 1.07

Mtl JP  14:09:30 GMT - 05/25/2023  
DLRx 104.14
I am now distilling all influencing energy vectors pushing on the puppy to wards a DOwn bias, looking for selling trading opportunities ; think most of the upside run has been used up

GVI Forex 12:45:38 GMT - 05/25/2023  
US yields spiking up after data (GDP revision, jobless claims)

GVI Forex 12:00:24 GMT - 05/25/2023  
1.0713 bullseye

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex 11:38:36 GMT - 05/25/2023  
From the Morning Bid aryicke

Futures markets now have a one in three chance the Fed will hike rates again next month but there is a 50% chance of another tightening by its end-July meeting. Any hope of easing by the end of the year is vanishing, with barely a quarter point cut from here, which is now priced into December. Earlier this month the market had about 100 basis points of 2023 easing.

GVI Forex 11:16:24 GMT - 05/25/2023  
Mike Dolan A look at the day ahead in US and global markets

Two of the year’s key themes caught investor attention overnight as the debt ceiling impasse sent the US government’s credit rating and chip-maker NVIDIA down artificially. Raised up to about 30% on Intelligence Boom.

Morning bid AMERICAS-AAA fears vying with the AI ​​craze

Mtl JP  10:14:52 GMT - 05/25/2023  
EURO 1.0727, LoD so far 1.0713
qtn now is ...

how fast to 1.05-handle

Mtl JP  09:42:11 GMT - 05/25/2023  
maman .... pourquoi ahh ?
Fitch Places United States' 'AAA' on Rating Watch Negative


GVI Forex 07:57:21 GMT - 05/25/2023  
German economy enters recession as first-quarter GDP data is revised lower

dc CB  22:14:11 GMT - 05/24/2023  
June 1st T-Bill yields exploded above 7% today

4wk Bills go off tomrow mid morning.---at !!!!!!!!!

The 21Day Bill went off yest at 6.20%

Mtl JP  21:34:40 GMT - 05/24/2023  
ahso ...
said Fed’s Waller: 'I don’t support stopping rate hikes' until inflation cools

I think I can see waller's footprints on price chart

Caribbean! Rafe...  20:56:03 GMT - 05/24/2023  
Think it over guys, it ain't granted.

Many countries in the world don't have welfare programs, welfare includes everything even proper infrastructure, roads, water supplies. So each and everything comes under welfare. Some gov't's all over the world got many roads for vehicular traffic, but those ain't safe, some roads are are smooth, but then there is reckless driving. Other roads got potholes 3 foot across... What are we supposed to do, drive the car, on what's left of that road (or piece of road)!.

Caribbean! Rafe...  20:34:18 GMT - 05/24/2023  
Municipal bonds act as a secret insurance policy (SIP), it's just makes sure the gov't has resources to help when you need help, if even your vacationing at a beach or jungle anywhere. ;)

Caribbean! Rafe...  20:00:54 GMT - 05/24/2023  
And if funds are betting on bonds then they can follow the trend... the way is simple...

Just ask people to use a portion of their taxes into buying advance bonds and use that to offet their tax returns with the IRS if that is possible... Do you truly want to help us? Oh!, well, it's simple, an easy way would be to add up the average taxes you paid over the last 5-10 years (they have to select either of them), and simply buy that same monetary value in bonds (For example: We sell 5 different types of bonds!), and keep doing it for as long as you like, it's also a good way to teach children financial literacy, and also how to save and manage their money as adults :)

Caribbean! Rafe...  19:48:03 GMT - 05/24/2023  
dc CB 22:18 GMT 05/23/2023

Treasury direct is more like e-bay now... Buy bonds and resell em'. 2 people can share in the same tenure if they want to turn over their money faster. All they gotta do is bid on the same quantity of bonds everyday, hold em' and sell them to another bidder when it's half tenure, so the other person get's some benefits too. The good thing with that is no drop shipping required, it's all safe and sound banking procedures, and the good thing with that is your doin business with your own gov't... Gov't has a reputation and track record for humanitarian gestures to citizens living in other countries, so imagine if they are so good with people in other countries then how good can they be to their own citizens living in their own country... "Just ask..."

We got rates goin here more like 7.xx and they will be faced with no choices but to raise higher, sad it is but then that's the truth.

P.S.: Humanitarian means kindness, and it is not the same as being vegetarian.

Mtl JP  18:35:29 GMT - 05/24/2023  
looks like bottom in euro has been seen today
circa 1.0750

dc CB  17:27:15 GMT - 05/24/2023  
Ahead of today's 5Y auction, we pointed out the massive short overhang in the tenor which would most likely lead to a painful squeeze.

5Y Auction 2nd Best On Record

dc CB  14:54:46 GMT - 05/24/2023  






dc CB  14:49:10 GMT - 05/24/2023  
Treas Auctions
Today --- 5y results after 1PM EDT

4wk Bill
8wk Bill
7y Note

dc CB  14:47:26 GMT - 05/24/2023  
Crude -12.456MM, Exp. +2.0MM
Gasoline -2.053MM
Distillate -561K
Cushing +1.762MM

SPR drain -1.6MM
8th straight week of draws from the SPR

GVI Forex 14:46:49 GMT - 05/24/2023  
McCarthy to hold a press conference around 15:45 GMT (11:45 EDT)

Mtl JP  14:13:06 GMT - 05/24/2023  
say to 1.072-ish

Mtl JP  14:00:44 GMT - 05/24/2023  
10am fixing euro at 1.0775-ish

still biased for the pup to puke some

dc CB  13:56:12 GMT - 05/24/2023  
Mtl JP
interesting that they are now wheeling out

Benny and the Jets

Professor Ben

Mtl JP  13:55:33 GMT - 05/24/2023  
at top of hour:
yellen is scheduled to yak (in London)

voter waller yaks at 12:10nyt (his view on economic outlook)
- should be hawkish IF he shares mohamed's excitement about the economy

Mtl JP  10:53:34 GMT - 05/24/2023  
interesting that they are now wheeling out a has-been from the garbage heap of history
Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke says there’s more work ahead to control inflation

by Jeff Cox

Mtl JP  10:45:37 GMT - 05/24/2023  
May 29, 2023 Memorial Day Monday

swiss frank  10:41:28 GMT - 05/24/2023  
They don't work Fridays?

Mtl JP  10:15:34 GMT - 05/24/2023  
EURO 1.0757
currently sitting on Sup

below 1.0720 next

Mtl JP  10:12:23 GMT - 05/24/2023  
Forex 10:02 // I d call that "good decision"

GVI Forex 10:02:48 GMT - 05/24/2023  
Looking ahead, barring a breakthrough, this suggests a defensive market heading into a long US weekend.

Punchbowl Newa on the U.S. debt ceiling says "With no deal imminent, McCarthy has signaled that he'd likely send lawmakers home Thursday evening anticipating that negotiations will drag into next week."

Mtl JP  09:56:11 GMT - 05/24/2023  
sentiment dichotomy on cnbc's home page:
Stock futures slip as investors eye debt ceiling clash in Washington

Treasury yields hold steady as investors follow debt ceiling negotiations, await economic reports

GVI Forex 07:38:41 GMT - 05/24/2023  
Out earlier

UK inflation falls by less than expected, core inflation jumps

dc CB  02:57:45 GMT - 05/24/2023  
Michael Every of Rabobank
Prepare To Be Buffetted

Today’s Daily is not about Warren Buffet but geopolitics’

National Security Advisor Sullivan just stated it’s okay for Ukraine to use Western missiles to attack Crimea, because that’s not part of Russia, and President Biden signed off on F-16s for Kyiv: once again the apparently unthinkable becomes the inevitable, and at scale given the number of F-16s available.

Once Again The Apparently Unthinkable Becomes The Inevitable

dc CB  02:52:11 GMT - 05/24/2023  
"Currently, many lawmakers in each party think the other party will bear the brunt of public anger if the debt ceiling is not raised which could mean the debt ceiling standoff lasts past this week." - Stifel

Mtl JP  01:56:48 GMT - 05/24/2023  
..."U.S. dollars are backed by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government."... that - US dollar - would be yellen's department
Republicans call in Yellen to have her “show her work” and reasoning behind the June 1 date. ... Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) separately suggested subpoenaing Yellen to see her reasoning.

oy janet, does that sting or not at all ?

GOP skepticism grows over Yellen’s June 1 debt ceiling deadline

dc CB  22:18:38 GMT - 05/23/2023  
Caribbean! Rafe... 21:17 GMT 05/22/2023 - My Profile
fwiw.... A bird in the hand is worth more than those hiding in the bush!
... keep buying low risk investments from treasury direct..

So the trade suggested by today's T-Bill Rates...
('she loves me- she loves me not'---Daisy Petal Pull trade)

The 4Wk(30day) and as revealed buy the recent appearence of the 21DayBill--------

Disruption In DC Is Not Going Away Anytime Soon" - Trillion-Dollar Fund Already Betting On 'Another' Debt-Ceiling Debacle

Mtl JP  22:15:13 GMT - 05/23/2023  
janet's treasuries
on the week-end the Armageddon pedling yellen streaming that it was “highly likely” that cash would run out by early june.

sut to be clear: 6% is NOT a crash of honorable janet's paper. as long as there are buyers, albeit at some higher risk-compensatory rate, it is only a cost.

would you like to see some real comedy stretching the secretary's nerve ?
the script would include yellen to taste no buyers for her paper situation and market go through prices escalating discovery to find out if janet "go big" yellen has a price at which she would prefer to pull her auction rather than to pay , say 100% or ___

oh the wishful thinking ...

dc CB  19:16:04 GMT - 05/23/2023  
see my
dc CB 15:48 GMT
Treas Auctions
21Day went at 6.20%
US equity markets appear to finally be facing the reality that the T-Bill market has been preaching - this is far from over.

a Bloomberg report that House Republicans aren’t buying Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s warning that the US government will run out of money as soon as June 1, or her dire predictions of default, undercutting the urgency to raise the debt limit, took markets lower again...

“We’d like to see more transparency on how they came to that date,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters after a closed meeting on Tuesday.

“It looks like they’re hedging now and opening the door to move that date back.”

And that is happening as the T-Bill curve's "kink" reaches a record high...
With mid-June Bills pricing above 6.00%!

Chip Roy of Texas called the default warnings a “manufactured crisis” to force Republicans to step back from some demands.

“The fact is, we’re going to have cash in June,” Roy told reporters Tuesday.

“The fact is, we’re not going to default on our debt. That’s just completely false. We’ve got the money to do it.”

Stock Tumble Republicans Question Yellen's X-Date Math

dc CB  19:00:30 GMT - 05/23/2023  
The week's first coupon auction is in the history books and it's out with a bang: moments ago the Treasury sold $42BN in 2Y paper in a stellar auction with metrics that were remarkable from top to bottom.

The high yield of 4.300%, while up notably from last month's 3.969%, stopped through the 4.315% When Issued, a reversal from last month's tail and one of the best stop throughs in the past year.

The Bid to Cover surged from 2.680 in April to 2.899, the highest since January's 2.944 and well above the recent average of 2.67.

The internals were even more impressive, because with an award of 68.2%, Indirect bidders, aka foreign buyers, saw the second highest takedown on record, with just the 68.7% in June 2009 higher.

2Y Auction Sees 2nd Highest Indirects On Record

dc CB  15:48:08 GMT - 05/23/2023  
Treas Auctions
2Y goes off at 1PM

21Day went at 6.20%

Treas 21 day

GVI Forex 14:39:13 GMT - 05/23/2023  
Amid all the mayhem over the debt ceiling dispute and background banking concerns, the US economy is holding up well enough to reinvigorate the Federal Reserve hawks once again.

Morning Bid: Fed hawks re-emerge, dollar jumps

Mtl JP  14:19:38 GMT - 05/23/2023  
EURO 1.079-ish
puppy looks pukey here , having tuff time with N of 1.08
1.0760ish likely Sup, below that 25 in the short term

swap on short is reasonable

Mtl JP  14:15:06 GMT - 05/23/2023  
checkout the swap on long dlrx ...

Mtl JP  14:04:45 GMT - 05/23/2023  
DLRx 103.33-ish
puppy is benefitting Support from players gaming odds of default AND yik yak from bullard and kashkari that rates need to go higher to quench the continued insubordinated inflation

Mtl JP  13:57:50 GMT - 05/23/2023  
It may also come in handy , at some point, to remember that jamie expects more regulation on the banks and that he hopes regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, will look into short selling on bank stocks and potential collusion via social media posts

Mtl JP  13:52:48 GMT - 05/23/2023  
GVI Forex 10:12 re JPM's "war room"

ffwrd to about the 2 min mark of

interview in which jamie talks about his war room

Mtl JP  11:08:50 GMT - 05/23/2023  
so someone , please , tell me why would some big players not want janet's department to default ?

do they really believe or care about her public angst n crocodile tears for some groups of peasants missing some monthly gov't alms or the chief of gov't spooks fearing putin having a chuckle ?

when what is potentially on the gaming table to grab in a "win" (ref NYT piece)

Mtl JP  10:36:26 GMT - 05/23/2023  
GVI Forex 10:12 me too. refer to the NYT's link in JP 01:07 GMT May 19, 2023

What Would Happen if the U.S. Defaulted on Its Debt

..."Amid this tumult in the days after a default, a few investors could be in for a major windfall. After a three-day grace period, some $12 billion of credit default swaps, a type of protection against a bond default, may be triggered. The decision on payouts is made by an industry committee that includes big banks and fund managers." ...

GVI Forex 10:12:27 GMT - 05/23/2023  
In not privy to the flows so just a thought that USD strength could be a scramble for USD liquidity in case of a debt default.

I saw a headline thst JPM has setup a war room in case of a default.

Mtl JP  10:00:59 GMT - 05/23/2023  
some sentiment headlines
Global stocks, Wall St futures fall after more US debt talks fail to break impasse
BEIJING (AP) — Global stock markets and Wall Street futures fell Tuesday after more talks in Washington on government debt ended with no deal to avoid a potentially jarring default.

Ex-Fed chief Bernanke says labor costs becoming more prominent in inflation
A tight U.S. job market and rising wages are beginning to have more of an impact on inflation

Saudi Energy Minister Tells Oil Speculators to ‘Watch Out’
they no like short sellers and think they can injure them

GVI Forex 05:23:35 GMT - 05/23/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Last month, better-than-expected PMI surveys helped pep markets' mood and kept stocks levitating near recent highs.

MORNING BID EUROPE-Can PMIs reprise their April surprise?M

Mtl JP  01:08:11 GMT - 05/23/2023  
Rafe... 21:17 what a testament to the genious of Charles Ponzi !!

The reason Ponzi schemes remain alive and well for more than 100 years is because people recruit friends and relatives while bragging of big returns – Jackie Callaway, ABC news

There is, however, one giant Achillies heel to Ponzi schemes. Would you care to discuss it ?

Mtl JP  00:25:21 GMT - 05/23/2023  
CB 19:45 thanks . priceless .

great top drawer example of effective communication
one pic = 1,000 + words

Caribbean! Rafe...  21:17:01 GMT - 05/22/2023  
fwiw.... A bird in the hand is worth more than those hiding in the bush!

... keep buying low risk investments from treasury direct...

A Charismatic, wildly successful and spouting investment jargon like a pro. That’s how federal agents and victims of a Sarasota-based Ponzi scheme describe the man at the center of one of the IRS’s biggest fraud cases of 2022. The FBI said Michael DaCorta convinced investors his company, Oasis International Group based in Sarasota, was reaping huge profits through foreign exchange trading. DaCorta appeared to have the Midas touch. He owned two mansions in Lakewood Ranch, drove exotic vehicles, and chartered private jets for luxury vacations in Europe and the Cayman Islands.

$80 million lost in florida ponzi scheme, hundreds scammed.

dc CB  19:45:33 GMT - 05/22/2023  
This is the most important trading video you'll ever see

from the NorthmanTrader

dc CB  19:42:43 GMT - 05/22/2023  

GVI Forex 14:49:48 GMT - 05/22/2023  
This was probably an example of some news algos reacting to keywords in a tweet.

GVI Forex 14:21:10 GMT - 05/22/2023  
Twitter account that reported about explosion near the Pentagon has deleted the tweet

GVI Forex 14:21:10 GMT - 05/22/2023  
Twitter account that reported about explosion near the Pentagon has deleted the tweet

GVI Forex 14:16:31 GMT - 05/22/2023  
This caused a flurry but so far nothing on news channels

Social media reports suggest a large explosion near the Pentagon complex in Washington DC — DETAILS LIGHT

GVI Forex 12:05:54 GMT - 05/22/2023  
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.

Well-choreographed brinkmanship over the debt ceiling standoff looks set to go down to the wire, while technology firms have once again become a battleground in tense geopolitics. Despite growing optimism last week about some bipartisan deal on lifting the U.S. debt cap - preventing the government running out of cash early next month and forcing a technical default on short-term debts - negotiations huffed and puffed late on Friday and over the weekend.

MORNING BID AMERICAS-Tech politics, debt cap brinkmanship

GVI Forex 09:17:59 GMT - 05/22/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

You didn't think it would be that easy, did you?

Investors are on edge after equities and the dollar got knocked back Friday, when Republican negotiators unexpectedly walked out of debt ceiling talks.

MORNING BID EUROPE-Not so fast, debt ceiling bulls!

GVI Forex 23:09:21 GMT - 05/21/2023  
May 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

The People's Bank of China is expected to keep key lending rates on hold on Monday, as traders in Asia digest the implications of the G7's stance on China and the tense and fluid situation in Washington regarding the U.S. debt ceiling standoff.

MORNING BID ASIA-China to hold rates steady, markets digest G7

Mtl JP  10:13:38 GMT - 05/21/2023  
sitting in a chair at the g7 shindig biden explains how debt limit negotiations evolve in stages and expresses

belief to be able to avoid default and get something decent done

Caribbean! Rafe...  09:45:30 GMT - 05/21/2023  
AB// Imagine? no mate... no imagining here.

There are limits on the amount of investment grade gold each individual can own. If you got 10M worth of gold then you need to buy 3x as much as that in other asset classes. But the first thing about making it mobile is that the minute someone buys 100k worth of investment grade gold the next minute he's put it into the bank safe and it stays there permanently, and with regards to transferring that gold (well that's why I said buy investment grade gold biscuits and not gold jewelery) that is the job of the bank. Besides anyone who buys investment grade gold keeps it in that same bank safe for eons of time, the bank charges a yearly rental to secure assets you own and store in it, by keeping everything segregated and secured from other people's belongings. There is bank strongbox, there is bank safe and there is bank vault.

Now, I don't understand what you mean by ban on gold trade. Besides, you got 10M worth of gold and don't know how to secure it? Who gave you money to buy so much gold, take us to his house.

hk ab  02:00:35 GMT - 05/21/2023  

Imagine you have about 10M asset, all turn into gold, physical.

How can you make them "mobile"?
During the transfer, how many security you need to hire?

What if there's a ban of gold trade when it catches gov't body attention?

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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