WSJ Scott Patterson's When Markets Melt Down, These Traders Cash In theme
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Why AI Is the Key to Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Valuation - wsj
$1 Trillion Debt Deluge Threatens Market Calm
Some on Wall Street fear that bond issuance that was shelved until a debt-ceiling deal was passed will overwhelm buyers, jolting markets and raising short-term borrowing costs
How a Chatbot Went Rogue
Mental-health software used by a national nonprofit was built to deliver pre-written replies. Then it got generative AI.
Lawmakers Try Again to Curb Visa, Mastercard Fees, With Broader Support
Lawmakers plan to re-up proposed legislation that would give merchants the power to process many credit cards over different networks.
Mtl JP 10:35:08 GMT - 06/07/2023
Rafe -- for a practical live education about GREED (but not only),
read up on the LIV-PGA Tour merger
Mtl JP 10:21:12 GMT - 06/07/2023
USDCAD 1.3385
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BoC rate decision on deck this fine day
economist pundits ("experts") appear divided about no/hike
I have a slight bias towards a "skip".
side issue:
1) More Canadians missing payments as they sink deeper into debt: Equifax
The quarter�s increase marks a shift where more of the consumers missing monthly debt payments are homeowners
effect: there should be bargains coming as folks dispose of earlier frivolous purchases
2) Higher int rates are good for banks profitability. BoD bank stocks.
Mtl JP 09:57:38 GMT - 06/07/2023
euro keeps finding Sup at 1.0670/65
should be matter of time before it gives
Mtl JP 06:31:05 GMT - 06/07/2023
EURO 1.0675
christine will be socking it to the peasants, supposedly for their good:
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“The latest available data suggest that indicators of underlying inflationary pressures remain high and, although some are showing signs of moderation, there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked,”
from NYT
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A new report projects that economic growth will slow this year and remain weak in 2024.
The World Bank said on Tuesday that the global economy remained in a “precarious state” and warned of sluggish growth this year and next as rising interest rates slow consumer spending and business investment, and threaten the stability of the financial system.
yellen watch
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"GOP lawmakers warn the world they’re not on board with Secretary Yellen’s plan.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has spent more than two years promising foreign leaders that the U.S. is committed to a new global deal to raise taxes on large companies. Now Republicans in Congress have a warning for the rest of the world: Don’t believe her."
EURO 1.0670
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still trading in a range. ECB suits been clear about hiking at their meeting so players price that in. On the other hand , the FED gang s been wishy washy (wink wink) about their inflation-fighting hike at their next meeting (next week) but players are trying to goad - price - a pause.
this builds to a potential new DLR speculative trade
Mtl JP 10:57:31 GMT - 06/06/2023
stocks - all around - wavering : asia, europe, us ...
US 10-YR 3.668% -0.025 LAST - 6:55:52 AM EDT
Mtl JP 10:35:05 GMT - 06/06/2023
Rafe... 19:05 / I do mind I don't explain comedy
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here is a link that may help:
https://autonomy.work/about-us/
A universal basic income of £1,600 a month is to be trialled in England for the first time in a pilot programme.
Will Stronge, the director of research at the thinktank Autonomy, which is backing the plan, said of the £1,600 figure: “This is a substantial amount. Universal basic income usually covers people’s basic needs but we want to see what effect this unconditional lump sum has on people’s mental and physical health, whether they choose to work or not.
EURO 1.0690
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puppy not finding continued oomph N of 1.07
low 1.06 still prefered , just not fast in a straight line
relative int rates still driving pairs
GVI Forex07:39:57 GMT - 06/06/2023
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee:
Markets are increasingly looking for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes next week, and, amid a blackout on Fed speakers, will be focusing heavily on economic data in the days ahead.
Perhaps, It would be the best outcome on the country's debt, if 300 million Americans were able to save towards buying bonds at every weekend/month end.
300 million people saving the minimum of 10-20 dolars per day, in favor of buying into treasuries and then topping up and reinvesting that principal & returns with what they saved during that period of time as well... Power of collective compounding is it?
Collective wisdom of the herds?
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:05:21 GMT - 06/05/2023
Mtl JP 23:46 GMT 06/04/2023 - My Profile
Sorry my typo 3=2
your 23:46 confused me.
do you mind explaining
Mtl JP 18:42:22 GMT - 06/05/2023
honey on lips, poison heart
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if u r interested google
"Why Janet Yellen Doesn’t Lose Sleep Over U.S. Borrowing" or something similar
Mtl JP 18:09:11 GMT - 06/05/2023
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period
- begins on midnight of the second Saturday preceding an FOMC meeting and lasts until midnight the full day following the meeting, unless otherwise noted. Federal Reserve policy limits the extent to which staff and FOMC participants can speak publicly or grant interviews during the blackout period. Speakers covering monetary policy, banking, or economic issues are not available during the blackout period.
In light of upcoming June 14th policy decision, FED gumflappers are in their blackout period since past weekend.
dc CB 14:15:08 GMT - 06/05/2023
5y----3.8%
dc CB 14:13:31 GMT - 06/05/2023
Services not so hot
5Y now --- 3.12%
Mtl JP 13:44:10 GMT - 06/05/2023
everything about early start to the week seems "slight" and "some":
us rates uP slightly, usd slightly bid, european rates up "some"
leaves me with impression that dlr's upside is likely limited.
***
BoC on wednesday
friday stats can releases its labour force survey for May
dc CB 13:36:17 GMT - 06/05/2023
5Y Note ---- 3.917%
Mtl JP 09:29:06 GMT - 06/05/2023
EURO 1.0693
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Qtn now is only how fast to low 06
GVI Forex08:49:07 GMT - 06/05/2023
All eyes are on interest rates to start the week, in Europe as well as the United States.
Chris Weston, head of research at Australia’s Pepperstone, called Friday’s U.S. payrolls report a “nirvana” of strong job creation and weaker wage growth, and it continues to colour everything.
LoL
WSJ
Sun, June 4, 2023 at 4:14 p.m. GMT-4
Saudi Arabia said Sunday it would make a voluntary cut of 1 million barrels of oil a day as part of a deal between OPEC and its allies. The United Arab Emirates and some other large producers also extended their voluntary cuts
Mtl JP 00:07:42 GMT - 06/05/2023
Imminent // ready to take place : happening soon �often used of something bad or dangerous seen as menacingly near
maybe DB wrote this for the bestial degenerate speculators
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as mentioned by WSJ (and other outlets):
A Wave of Defaults�and a Recession�Is �Imminent,� Deutsche Bank Forecasts
Rafe ... really bud ... you should have included a bladder-stress warning before "People got conscience enough to do 3 honest full time jobs. It's because they want to"... next time ok ? please
Mtl JP 22:41:39 GMT - 06/04/2023
Another bladder stresser curtesy Medvedev via POLITICO
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LONDON — British politicians are now a legitimate military target for Moscow, a senior Russian official said, after the U.K.’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly argued Ukraine has the right to use force within Russian borders.
If people know what they are doing then yes they can overlook and go buy equities and whatever else they think, but mind you though. The debt problem is so high that I feel many companies just won't be there in a few years, and rather staying out of them is better than buying into them.
Just be patient, and be on the lookout for financial scams and schemes etc. Those happen in the last stages of economic slumps etc etc and signal initial rallies of bull runs. Why? Regulators/FBI etc get involved when scams abound, and that makes people feel safe, smarter and confident and fearful enough from regulatory bogey men to invest their money wisely!
It's just that people either need to get literate and become twice wise to escape from the clutches of scammers or experience suffering at the hands of scammers and phonies etc etc.
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:04:29 GMT - 06/03/2023
And the third phase is the good phase. But why... They are not thieves are they?
People got conscience enough to do 3 honest full time jobs. It's because they want to pay off their debt, they wanna improve, they don't wanna waste time and do evil things, and they just wanna spend their time doing good if not for others then for themselves, which directly keeps crime rates very low, and indirectly builds super good collective karma for everyone else in that country too!
Time and Truth...
With regards to markets going into slow phase blah blah. so what!. let it be, no big deal in that. The best thing to do in the mean time is let people do their thing and prepare for the next phase! And by that time the markets will be ready to soar. In the mean time, save all money into bonds every 1 dollar goes into savings and accumulates towards buying government bonds.
Let americans understand that in the future, the bonds they now buy, will become the #1 stable source of income for them, and income which will start overflowing into multibaggers meaning 100x and above.
If markets are slow phase then it's better for the locals/citizens/people living there.
Caribbean! Rafe... 18:39:50 GMT - 06/03/2023
Let me ask you, if the fed is converting outflows into inflows then where did that money come from and what did it go into, additionally what caused them to do that.
They are accounting for everything is it not or that fellow dug up some shocking details of what the fed is not telling the public... So now let's be clear... is this a cover up? My fundamental observation is no, it is not a cover-up.
And well, all you guys know better than me so your views are greatly as always appreciated.
and most important,... he used the word fuckery? hu taut him dat word!!!!
""" And finally, the piece de resistance of Fed fuckery - for domestic (large and small) commercial banks, NSA (actual) flows were -$28.4 billion, while SA (magic) flows were +$102.5 billion!"""
and then ...
Biden says he’ll sign bill to lift debt ceiling on Saturday
dc CB 21:51:27 GMT - 06/02/2023
Rafe...
***Ficklemindedness***
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Jun 02, 2023 - 04:40 PM
Tl; dr: The Fed reportts that domestic (large and small) commercial banks saw NSA flows of -$28.4 billion, while SA flows were +$102.5 billion!
As if it needs to be said, non-seasonally-adjusted deposit flows are 'actual flows'? And why do we care about 'seasonally-adjusted' deposits - they aren't real assets?
For some more context, the deposit delta (between real outflows and SA outflows) since March 1 is now $150BN+
It seems The Fed is using the 'fog of banking crisis war' - knowing this data drops late on a Friday night - to pull the wool over depositors and investors eyes.
FED: One rate decision they get praised for good job done, by the next rate decision they are made to look like "Dork Wayyderrr". Some flip headed commentator standing on their necks ready with an axe...
Wonder what kung fu granny plans on doing about the public's ficklemindnesss., Edu-Bonds Perhaps...
Mtl JP 14:25:07 GMT - 06/02/2023
degenerate gambler (haha):
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who does not like Fridays, especially after the fix or into US stocks' last half hour into the close eh ?
Mtl JP 14:22:50 GMT - 06/02/2023
euro 1.0733
testing LoD
Mtl JP 14:08:14 GMT - 06/02/2023
DLRx 103.65
who wants to play this assertion
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The Drivers of Inflation Are Reversing. The Case for Fed Cuts" - Barron's
Mtl JP 13:53:53 GMT - 06/02/2023
NEVER MIND that
"Treasury yields jump after much stronger-than-expected jobs report" - cnbc
"risk" enthusiasts rage
means the FED's inflation-fighting job is far FAR from over
just not a theme on menu du jour today
Mtl JP 13:41:45 GMT - 06/02/2023
EURO 1.0761
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Low 1.0733ish , res 1.0765/75
break out N of 75 should open up approx 100-pip hunt uP
GVI Forex12:28:06 GMT - 06/02/2023
Watch hourly wages in the jobs report.
Mtl JP 11:09:18 GMT - 06/02/2023
rate peak & glee by global investors
"robust U.S. labor markets" are current inflation-fighting FED's Némésis
could be ... peak of glee ?
GVI Forex10:49:04 GMT - 06/02/2023
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
With the U.S. debt ceiling removed, world markets see the sky again - encouraged that robust U.S. labor markets continue to defy recession fears as interest rates near peaks.
dog eat dog (as it happens commentary, curtesy Ruxandra Iordache)
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" Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned oil market speculators they could face further pain ahead, in comments some have read as hinting further supply cuts could be in the cards.
“I keep advising [speculators] that they will be ouching. They did ouch in April. I don’t have to show my cards, I’m not [a] poker player … but I would just tell them, watch out,” he said at the time.
front row seat at the octagon, curtesy fp cnbc
* OPEC+ ministers will meet to determine their next oil production policy steps on June 4 in Vienna.
* They face a market rattled by supply volatility, demand uncertainty and a prospective recession, which could throttle transport fuel consumption.
* Public signals have been conflicting following Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman’s late-May warning that oil speculators could face further pain ahead.
a fwiw piece courtesy Scott Patterson
potentially extremely generous act of sharing
- When Markets Melt Down, These Traders Cash In
Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Nicholas Taleb devised ways to reap huge profits from global chaos—and they expect a lot of chaos in the years ahead
28Day-- 5.13%
56Day -- 5.22%
and an unusual 3Day-- 6.15%
so looking at that, which is back to normal---better Yield for the longer duration, 1month v 2month.
Fixed then----Treas jsut needs immediate cash to be thru the Senate and the Biden signature.....thus the 3Day---
Caribbean! Rafe... 17:49:50 GMT - 06/01/2023
GVI 07:33 GMT 06/01/2023 - My Profile
Did they avoid the default and make the deal or not.
GVI Forex16:52:01 GMT - 06/01/2023
Great moves today
Note EURUSD gaot a bid after EURGBP found support and then bounced.
Mtl JP 13:51:08 GMT - 06/01/2023
fickle news for fickle players
NFP tomorrow s polluted by voters jeffereson and harker blabbing about a hike skip ... duh duh duh... do the clowns have a bead on screwing with players ? hahaha only because players let 'em to ditz them around
PAR12:51:49 GMT - 06/01/2023
US real wages keep declining.
GVI Forex12:33:43 GMT - 06/01/2023
Yields drop on big downward revision to Q1 unit labor costs 4.2% vs initial 6.3%)
GVI Forex12:17:15 GMT - 06/01/2023
ADP upside surprise +278k
Wage metric moderating slightly
Not much reaction
GVI Forex11:26:38 GMT - 06/01/2023
USDJPY 15 minute chart
Top 2 blue AT lines drawn off the high of the day => AT directional indicator indicates a potential top
3rd AT blue line => 3rd AT line is often followed by an acceleration (in this case) to the downside... rest is history until an AT red line held
Fed Whisperer” Timiraos says the FOMC is likely to hold interest rates steady in June. The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos writes: Federal Reserve officials signalled they are increasingly likely to hold interest rates steady at their June meeting before preparing to raise them again later this summer.…Forexlive
dc CB 22:03:18 GMT - 05/31/2023
The FED whisperer with that 70's haircut has got the inside dope---hope it's the good stuff.
The Wall Street Journal
@WSJ
·
41m
Breaking: Federal Reserve officials signaled they are increasingly likely to hold rates steady at their June meeting, before preparing to raise them again later this summer https://on.wsj.com/3C5xqpj
GVI Forex21:51:31 GMT - 05/31/2023
New term for Fed
“Hawkish pause”
Caribbean! Rafe... 20:31:13 GMT - 05/31/2023
pretty helpful ways to save some time (by not wasting it)
Will maternity hospitals function if there is no deal.
dc CB 18:19:01 GMT - 05/31/2023
Update (1400ET): The Financial Times reports that OPEC has barred several media groups from attending its crucial production meeting in Vienna this weekend, in a move officials said was driven by Saudi Arabia
Reporters from Reuters, Bloomberg News and Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, have been denied invites to Opec’s Vienna headquarters, according to people familiar with the matter.
The ban is unusual and no reason has been given for excluding the media groups, but people familiar with the decision said it had been instigated by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.
EURGBP month end sell order heading into 4 PM fixing
GVI Forex14:11:40 GMT - 05/31/2023
April JOLTs (job openings) much higher than expected + prior month revised up
GVI Forex13:46:44 GMT - 05/31/2023
Much weaker than expected Chi PMI at 40.4
Note it gets rehearsed 2 minutes early to subscribers
GVI Forex11:08:51 GMT - 05/31/2023
Light US data today. Watch Chi PMI, JOLTS at 14:00 GMT and London end-of-month fixing at 15:00 GMT
Mtl JP 22:28:14 GMT - 05/30/2023
crude 69.60
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eye-catching price-dump
what IS the market pricing ?
tia
Mtl JP 16:43:18 GMT - 05/30/2023
DLRx 104 ... basically at midpoint of yesty's range
very soon players will be focussing and pricing relative rates
GVI Forex11:31:52 GMT - 05/30/2023
A look at the coming days in US and global markets from Mike Dolan
Out of the frying pan, and into the fire?
The relief this week over the prospect of lifting the US debt ceiling is being overshadowed by the uneasy prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates even higher – and the evaporation of any 2023 easing expectations ahead.
worked to convince ... “strangling with an intent to kill.”
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..."Biden officials, especially at the Treasury Department (that would be yellen and some of her deputy minions) , have worked to convince European and G7 allies of the need to coordinate their efforts, which has slowed down the release of the U.S. executive order." ...
Copper 3.66xx = BoD
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Last year, the Department of Energy (DOE) launched the Better Grid Initiative that seeks to develop new and upgraded high-capacity electric transmission lines. The initiative will deploy more than $20 billion in federal financing tools, including a $3 billion expansion of the Smart Grid Investment Grant Program; a new $2.5 billion Transmission Facilitation Program and more than $10 billion in grants for states, tribes, and utilities to enhance grid resilience and prevent power outages. The program will also tap into existing tools, including the more than $3 billion Western Area Power Administration Transmission Infrastructure Program, and a number of loan guarantee programs through the Loan Programs Office.
crude 71.80, down from 73.35
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some players still price-playing odds of yellen defaulting
Mtl JP 10:38:31 GMT - 05/29/2023
Looking ahead for themes
*
- Monday Memorial Day
-- Tuesday Cons Conf
--- Wednesday is Beige Book + ADP report
---- Friday Jobs Report
Further out ... FED rates
Anecdotally: ketchup is uP 30% y/y, hotdog & burger rest of condiments uP 9% y/y
GVI Forex23:30:18 GMT - 05/28/2023
Note, U.S. and UK markets closed for holidays,
Mtl JP 22:10:10 GMT - 05/28/2023
SnP 4235
enthusiasts
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bullish gap
Mtl JP 09:59:00 GMT - 05/28/2023
according to Brian Evans & Alex Harring via cnbc:
"Stocks rally Friday on hopes for a debt ceiling deal, Nasdaq notches fifth straight week of wins"
Mtl JP 06:16:42 GMT - 05/28/2023
maaahmeeee .... it is over
the Reps take a knee:
* House Republicans reached a tentative deal with the White House to address the nation’s debt ceiling and avoid a default.
* Speaker Kevin McCarthy said the deal included “historic reductions in spending” and that he planned to have it ready for a vote in the House on Wednesday.
* President Joe Biden said it “represents a compromise, which means not everyone gets what they want.”
still have some time left. may I have the next dance ?
... "Based on the most recent available data, we now estimate that Treasury will have insufficient resources to satisfy the government’s obligations if Congress has not raised or suspended the debt limit by June 5,"
Forex 14:51 the closer the date the better odds of a deal
dc CB 16:34:53 GMT - 05/26/2023
dc CB 18:57 GMT 05/25/2023
5Y yield
more Debt crap tomrow and it will be 4% for the 3 day weekend
5y - 3.599
GVI Forex14:51:56 GMT - 05/26/2023
No change except stocks up sharply as the debt ceiling soap opera gets closer to its finale.
GVI Forex12:39:02 GMT - 05/26/2023
Hotter PCE
Yields up
USD up
GVI Forex12:03:23 GMT - 05/26/2023
US PCE, monthly trade, and Durable Goods reports up next
Mtl JP 09:47:43 GMT - 05/26/2023
Forex 09:18
these things have a tendency to follow Nature's Law cycles similar to that of beehive, rabbit population, snowfall/avalanche or ... revolution
fortunately or not
GVI Forex09:18:05 GMT - 05/26/2023
(Bloomberg) — Germany has been Europe’s economic engine for decades, steering the region through crisis after crisis. But that resilience is breaking down, and it threatens the entire continent.
CB 19:45 and all those 300,000,000 people will reach utopia and sip pinacoladas on a beach 24/7
dc CB 19:45:14 GMT - 05/25/2023
zerohedge
It's unclear how many jobs AI will have to replace to make the "$1 trillion data center" investment viable but Goldman has estimated 300 million middle/upper class jobs in US/Europe will be made obsolete
dc CB 19:40:14 GMT - 05/25/2023
zerohedge
Today NVDA's market cap rose by $200BN, which is more than the market cap of 472 S&P companies including:
*NO PLANS FOR DEBT-LIMIT NEGOTIATORS TO MEET TODAY: GRAVES
*FED SWAPS SHOW QUARTER-POINT HIKE FULLY PRICED BY JULY MEETING
and from the BrainTrust
*FED'S COLLINS DOESN'T SEE A RECESSION IN HER BASELINE OUTLOOK
Mtl JP 14:17:55 GMT - 05/25/2023
EURO 1.0723
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looks like the A to JP 10:14 is that breaking South of 1.07 is not going to be a cakewalk
on the otherhand for the puppy to regain uP momentum, it ll need to breach high 1.07
Mtl JP 14:09:30 GMT - 05/25/2023
DLRx 104.14
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I am now distilling all influencing energy vectors pushing on the puppy to wards a DOwn bias, looking for selling trading opportunities ; think most of the upside run has been used up
GVI Forex12:45:38 GMT - 05/25/2023
US yields spiking up after data (GDP revision, jobless claims)
Futures markets now have a one in three chance the Fed will hike rates again next month but there is a 50% chance of another tightening by its end-July meeting. Any hope of easing by the end of the year is vanishing, with barely a quarter point cut from here, which is now priced into December. Earlier this month the market had about 100 basis points of 2023 easing.
GVI Forex11:16:24 GMT - 05/25/2023
Mike Dolan A look at the day ahead in US and global markets
Two of the year’s key themes caught investor attention overnight as the debt ceiling impasse sent the US government’s credit rating and chip-maker NVIDIA down artificially. Raised up to about 30% on Intelligence Boom.
German economy enters recession as first-quarter GDP data is revised lower
dc CB 22:14:11 GMT - 05/24/2023
June 1st T-Bill yields exploded above 7% today
4wk Bills go off tomrow mid morning.---at !!!!!!!!!
The 21Day Bill went off yest at 6.20%
Mtl JP 21:34:40 GMT - 05/24/2023
ahso ...
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said Fed’s Waller: 'I don’t support stopping rate hikes' until inflation cools
I think I can see waller's footprints on price chart
Caribbean! Rafe... 20:56:03 GMT - 05/24/2023
Think it over guys, it ain't granted.
Many countries in the world don't have welfare programs, welfare includes everything even proper infrastructure, roads, water supplies. So each and everything comes under welfare. Some gov't's all over the world got many roads for vehicular traffic, but those ain't safe, some roads are are smooth, but then there is reckless driving. Other roads got potholes 3 foot across... What are we supposed to do, drive the car, on what's left of that road (or piece of road)!.
Caribbean! Rafe... 20:34:18 GMT - 05/24/2023
Municipal bonds act as a secret insurance policy (SIP), it's just makes sure the gov't has resources to help when you need help, if even your vacationing at a beach or jungle anywhere. ;)
Caribbean! Rafe... 20:00:54 GMT - 05/24/2023
And if funds are betting on bonds then they can follow the trend... the way is simple...
Just ask people to use a portion of their taxes into buying advance bonds and use that to offet their tax returns with the IRS if that is possible... Do you truly want to help us? Oh!, well, it's simple, an easy way would be to add up the average taxes you paid over the last 5-10 years (they have to select either of them), and simply buy that same monetary value in bonds (For example: We sell 5 different types of bonds!), and keep doing it for as long as you like, it's also a good way to teach children financial literacy, and also how to save and manage their money as adults :)
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:48:03 GMT - 05/24/2023
dc CB 22:18 GMT 05/23/2023
Treasury direct is more like e-bay now... Buy bonds and resell em'. 2 people can share in the same tenure if they want to turn over their money faster. All they gotta do is bid on the same quantity of bonds everyday, hold em' and sell them to another bidder when it's half tenure, so the other person get's some benefits too. The good thing with that is no drop shipping required, it's all safe and sound banking procedures, and the good thing with that is your doin business with your own gov't... Gov't has a reputation and track record for humanitarian gestures to citizens living in other countries, so imagine if they are so good with people in other countries then how good can they be to their own citizens living in their own country... "Just ask..."
We got rates goin here more like 7.xx and they will be faced with no choices but to raise higher, sad it is but then that's the truth.
P.S.: Humanitarian means kindness, and it is not the same as being vegetarian.
Mtl JP 18:35:29 GMT - 05/24/2023
looks like bottom in euro has been seen today
circa 1.0750
dc CB 17:27:15 GMT - 05/24/2023
Ahead of today's 5Y auction, we pointed out the massive short overhang in the tenor which would most likely lead to a painful squeeze.
at top of hour:
yellen is scheduled to yak (in London)
voter waller yaks at 12:10nyt (his view on economic outlook)
- should be hawkish IF he shares mohamed's excitement about the economy
Mtl JP 10:53:34 GMT - 05/24/2023
interesting that they are now wheeling out a has-been from the garbage heap of history
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Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke says there’s more work ahead to control inflation
Looking ahead, barring a breakthrough, this suggests a defensive market heading into a long US weekend.
Punchbowl Newa on the U.S. debt ceiling says "With no deal imminent, McCarthy has signaled that he'd likely send lawmakers home Thursday evening anticipating that negotiations will drag into next week."
sentiment dichotomy on cnbc's home page:
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Stock futures slip as investors eye debt ceiling clash in Washington
Treasury yields hold steady as investors follow debt ceiling negotiations, await economic reports
GVI Forex07:38:41 GMT - 05/24/2023
Out earlier
UK inflation falls by less than expected, core inflation jumps
dc CB 02:57:45 GMT - 05/24/2023
Michael Every of Rabobank
Prepare To Be Buffetted
Today’s Daily is not about Warren Buffet but geopolitics’
National Security Advisor Sullivan just stated it’s okay for Ukraine to use Western missiles to attack Crimea, because that’s not part of Russia, and President Biden signed off on F-16s for Kyiv: once again the apparently unthinkable becomes the inevitable, and at scale given the number of F-16s available.
"Currently, many lawmakers in each party think the other party will bear the brunt of public anger if the debt ceiling is not raised which could mean the debt ceiling standoff lasts past this week." - Stifel
Mtl JP 01:56:48 GMT - 05/24/2023
..."U.S. dollars are backed by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government."... that - US dollar - would be yellen's department
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Republicans call in Yellen to have her “show her work” and reasoning behind the June 1 date. ... Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) separately suggested subpoenaing Yellen to see her reasoning.
Caribbean! Rafe... 21:17 GMT 05/22/2023 - My Profile
fwiw.... A bird in the hand is worth more than those hiding in the bush!
... keep buying low risk investments from treasury direct..
____________________________________________________-
So the trade suggested by today's T-Bill Rates...
('she loves me- she loves me not'---Daisy Petal Pull trade)
The 4Wk(30day) and as revealed buy the recent appearence of the 21DayBill--------
janet's treasuries
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on the week-end the Armageddon pedling yellen streaming that it was “highly likely” that cash would run out by early june.
sut to be clear: 6% is NOT a crash of honorable janet's paper. as long as there are buyers, albeit at some higher risk-compensatory rate, it is only a cost.
would you like to see some real comedy stretching the secretary's nerve ?
the script would include yellen to taste no buyers for her paper situation and market go through prices escalating discovery to find out if janet "go big" yellen has a price at which she would prefer to pull her auction rather than to pay , say 100% or ___
oh the wishful thinking ...
dc CB 19:16:04 GMT - 05/23/2023
see my
dc CB 15:48 GMT
Treas Auctions
21Day went at 6.20%
_______________________________________
US equity markets appear to finally be facing the reality that the T-Bill market has been preaching - this is far from over.
a Bloomberg report that House Republicans aren’t buying Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s warning that the US government will run out of money as soon as June 1, or her dire predictions of default, undercutting the urgency to raise the debt limit, took markets lower again...
“We’d like to see more transparency on how they came to that date,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters after a closed meeting on Tuesday.
“It looks like they’re hedging now and opening the door to move that date back.”
And that is happening as the T-Bill curve's "kink" reaches a record high...
With mid-June Bills pricing above 6.00%!
Chip Roy of Texas called the default warnings a “manufactured crisis” to force Republicans to step back from some demands.
“The fact is, we’re going to have cash in June,” Roy told reporters Tuesday.
“The fact is, we’re not going to default on our debt. That’s just completely false. We’ve got the money to do it.”
The week's first coupon auction is in the history books and it's out with a bang: moments ago the Treasury sold $42BN in 2Y paper in a stellar auction with metrics that were remarkable from top to bottom.
The high yield of 4.300%, while up notably from last month's 3.969%, stopped through the 4.315% When Issued, a reversal from last month's tail and one of the best stop throughs in the past year.
The Bid to Cover surged from 2.680 in April to 2.899, the highest since January's 2.944 and well above the recent average of 2.67.
The internals were even more impressive, because with an award of 68.2%, Indirect bidders, aka foreign buyers, saw the second highest takedown on record, with just the 68.7% in June 2009 higher.
Amid all the mayhem over the debt ceiling dispute and background banking concerns, the US economy is holding up well enough to reinvigorate the Federal Reserve hawks once again.
EURO 1.079-ish
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puppy looks pukey here , having tuff time with N of 1.08
1.0760ish likely Sup, below that 25 in the short term
swap on short is reasonable
Mtl JP 14:15:06 GMT - 05/23/2023
checkout the swap on long dlrx ...
Mtl JP 14:04:45 GMT - 05/23/2023
DLRx 103.33-ish
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puppy is benefitting Support from players gaming odds of default AND yik yak from bullard and kashkari that rates need to go higher to quench the continued insubordinated inflation
Mtl JP 13:57:50 GMT - 05/23/2023
It may also come in handy , at some point, to remember that jamie expects more regulation on the banks and that he hopes regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, will look into short selling on bank stocks and potential collusion via social media posts
so someone , please , tell me why would some big players not want janet's department to default ?
do they really believe or care about her public angst n crocodile tears for some groups of peasants missing some monthly gov't alms or the chief of gov't spooks fearing putin having a chuckle ?
when what is potentially on the gaming table to grab in a "win" (ref NYT piece)
Mtl JP 10:36:26 GMT - 05/23/2023
GVI Forex 10:12 me too. refer to the NYT's link in JP 01:07 GMT May 19, 2023
What Would Happen if the U.S. Defaulted on Its Debt
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/business/default-debt-what-happens-next.html
..."Amid this tumult in the days after a default, a few investors could be in for a major windfall. After a three-day grace period, some $12 billion of credit default swaps, a type of protection against a bond default, may be triggered. The decision on payouts is made by an industry committee that includes big banks and fund managers." ...
GVI Forex10:12:27 GMT - 05/23/2023
In not privy to the flows so just a thought that USD strength could be a scramble for USD liquidity in case of a debt default.
I saw a headline thst JPM has setup a war room in case of a default.
Mtl JP 10:00:59 GMT - 05/23/2023
some sentiment headlines
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Global stocks, Wall St futures fall after more US debt talks fail to break impasse
BEIJING (AP) — Global stock markets and Wall Street futures fell Tuesday after more talks in Washington on government debt ended with no deal to avoid a potentially jarring default.
Ex-Fed chief Bernanke says labor costs becoming more prominent in inflation
A tight U.S. job market and rising wages are beginning to have more of an impact on inflation
Bloomberg
Saudi Energy Minister Tells Oil Speculators to ‘Watch Out’
they no like short sellers and think they can injure them
GVI Forex05:23:35 GMT - 05/23/2023
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
Last month, better-than-expected PMI surveys helped pep markets' mood and kept stocks levitating near recent highs.
Rafe... 21:17 what a testament to the genious of Charles Ponzi !!
The reason Ponzi schemes remain alive and well for more than 100 years is because people recruit friends and relatives while bragging of big returns – Jackie Callaway, ABC news
There is, however, one giant Achillies heel to Ponzi schemes. Would you care to discuss it ?
Mtl JP 00:25:21 GMT - 05/23/2023
CB 19:45 thanks . priceless .
great top drawer example of effective communication
one pic = 1,000 + words
Caribbean! Rafe... 21:17:01 GMT - 05/22/2023
fwiw.... A bird in the hand is worth more than those hiding in the bush!
... keep buying low risk investments from treasury direct...
A Charismatic, wildly successful and spouting investment jargon like a pro. That’s how federal agents and victims of a Sarasota-based Ponzi scheme describe the man at the center of one of the IRS’s biggest fraud cases of 2022. The FBI said Michael DaCorta convinced investors his company, Oasis International Group based in Sarasota, was reaping huge profits through foreign exchange trading. DaCorta appeared to have the Midas touch. He owned two mansions in Lakewood Ranch, drove exotic vehicles, and chartered private jets for luxury vacations in Europe and the Cayman Islands.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.
Well-choreographed brinkmanship over the debt ceiling standoff looks set to go down to the wire, while technology firms have once again become a battleground in tense geopolitics. Despite growing optimism last week about some bipartisan deal on lifting the U.S. debt cap - preventing the government running out of cash early next month and forcing a technical default on short-term debts - negotiations huffed and puffed late on Friday and over the weekend.
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
You didn't think it would be that easy, did you?
Investors are on edge after equities and the dollar got knocked back Friday, when Republican negotiators unexpectedly walked out of debt ceiling talks.
May 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.
The People's Bank of China is expected to keep key lending rates on hold on Monday, as traders in Asia digest the implications of the G7's stance on China and the tense and fluid situation in Washington regarding the U.S. debt ceiling standoff.
There are limits on the amount of investment grade gold each individual can own. If you got 10M worth of gold then you need to buy 3x as much as that in other asset classes. But the first thing about making it mobile is that the minute someone buys 100k worth of investment grade gold the next minute he's put it into the bank safe and it stays there permanently, and with regards to transferring that gold (well that's why I said buy investment grade gold biscuits and not gold jewelery) that is the job of the bank. Besides anyone who buys investment grade gold keeps it in that same bank safe for eons of time, the bank charges a yearly rental to secure assets you own and store in it, by keeping everything segregated and secured from other people's belongings. There is bank strongbox, there is bank safe and there is bank vault.
Now, I don't understand what you mean by ban on gold trade. Besides, you got 10M worth of gold and don't know how to secure it? Who gave you money to buy so much gold, take us to his house.
hk ab 02:00:35 GMT - 05/21/2023
Rafe//
Imagine you have about 10M asset, all turn into gold, physical.
How can you make them "mobile"?
During the transfer, how many security you need to hire?
What if there's a ban of gold trade when it catches gov't body attention?
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