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Mtl JP  14:05:53 GMT - 09/18/2023  
DLR/x 4493-ish
raining CBs decisions week (7 of them, lol)
makes for wishi-washi waint-n-see type of start to the week
"And just like global markets have been discombobulated this month, the central bank will be grappling with low visibility and a plethora of mixed signals." - Reuters September 18

EURO 1.0664
tight range , prefer selleing pops . opportunistically.

Mtl JP  10:34:54 GMT - 09/18/2023  
USDCAD 1.3504
inflation numbers by statsCan tomorrow
players expecting 4% + (for 2nd month in row)

some BoC is scheduled to yak after sep 7th macklem's “may be sufficiently restrictive to restore price stability” expert prognosis

GVI Forex 09:00:17 GMT - 09/18/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan.

The global chip sector is stealing the spotlight from major central banks, after the world's top contract chipmaker raised concerns over demand, hitting share prices of semiconductor stocks.

Morning Bid: Chips are down

GVI 23:45:46 GMT - 09/17/2023  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Can it make it 10 weeks?

From the Morning Bid article

The euro has weakened for the last nine weeks, its longest losing streak ever. The 5% decline over that period is modest relative to other multi-week spells of depreciation, but nine weeks is still record-breaking. A period of consolidation and reversal is surely imminent.

GVI Forex 23:24:35 GMT - 09/17/2023  
Sept 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.

The Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday is the highlight of the week in Asia, with speculation rising that policymakers may be much closer to moving away from ultra-loose policy and negative interest rates than previously thought.

Morning Bid: Clarion call for Bank of Japan clarity

Mtl JP  16:40:29 GMT - 09/17/2023  
S&P 500 Index 4450.32 close last week

I have no idea how player collective will react to that on Monday
only to remark that 4460 should have been S level and that buyers should/have come out.

Priceaction next week should, to a degree, reflect player confidence in the FED. Or lack of it.

Mtl JP  12:00:28 GMT - 09/17/2023  

Entry: ? Target: ? Stop: ?
players' expectation is 98% FED chickens out


GVI 09:13:14 GMT - 09/17/2023  

Entry: Target: Stop:
The Federal Reserve has three scheduled meetings remaining in 2023. Of these, November is likely to be the most significant one and may include an interest rate increase. Markets currently anticipate the September and December meetings will hold rates steady.

What To Expect From The Three Remaining Fed Meetings Of 2023

Mtl JP  22:30:45 GMT - 09/16/2023  
what DO they know
what do they want YOU to do ?
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote on Saturday, while also forecasting the U.S. central bank would lift its economic growth projections when policymakers gather next week.

"On November, we think that further labor market rebalancing, better news on inflation, and the likely upcoming Q4 growth pothole will convince more participants that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) can forgo a final hike this year, as we think it ultimately will," the investment bank's strategists wrote in a report. .../..

Mtl JP  17:55:10 GMT - 09/16/2023  
FedWatch Tool

FedWatch uses fed funds futures prices to display current and historical probabilities of FOMC rate outcomes.

�FedWatch was created in the spirit of providing efficient tools to help our clients manage interest rate risks in a transparent and cost-efficient way,� says Agha Mirza, global head of rates and OTC products at CME Group, adding that he and his team launched the indicator after clients showed an appetite for it.

Ivan Castano for CME Group // Why the FedWatch Tool Became a Key Interest Rates Indicator

dc CB  22:22:32 GMT - 09/15/2023  
Option Alpha
Triple Witching
When is triple witching?
Triple witching is the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
* this is from a required course --Trading 101--must be taken before moving to Trading 102--Risking Your Own Money. ----- lol

And remember the "Week After" Sep Op-Ex has been remarkable in its "consistent weakness", lower 26 of 33 times since 1990, with a median return -1.0% at a 22% hit-rate (i.e. "higher" only 22% of the time) (ZeroHedge)

SPX Sept Quarterly Expiries Since 1990--Data Chart

Mtl JP  21:46:43 GMT - 09/15/2023  
double darn
EURO closes 1.0655 with a low dip to 1.0652
just as the 10yr blew up to 4.3360
in the last minute of trading

I call it The Mongrels' Dance

Mtl JP  18:21:47 GMT - 09/15/2023  
darn, euro probing south again
just nibbles but if I were a poodle (french one) I d not be trusting the pitbull

Mtl JP  17:57:27 GMT - 09/15/2023  
Option Alpha
Triple Witching
When is triple witching?
Triple witching is the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

Triple witching dates 2023

dc CB  17:16:38 GMT - 09/15/2023  
FRI SEP 15, AT 6:44 AM

$3.4 Trillion: Today's Triple-Witch Is The Biggest September Op-Ex On Record
Once over $3 trillion in options expire, watch out for the swings...

Belgrade Bobby  16:32:16 GMT - 09/15/2023  

Mtl JP  16:28:01 GMT - 09/15/2023  
“There is nothing else like the fighting dinosaurs, which captures direct evidence of a single instant in time.”

The Velociraptor has sunk its deadly foot claw deep into the neck of the herbivore, a boar-sized creature called Protoceratops. This vicious attack may have hit the carotid artery – a lethal blow.

But the Protoceratops fought back. It has thrown the Velociraptor to the ground before it, and its jaws are locked on to the predator’s right arm. The bite appears to have broken the Velociraptor‘s arm.

What happened next?

Stunning fossils: Dinosaur death match

Belgrade Bobby  16:21:37 GMT - 09/15/2023  
This is what I see...

Mtl JP  16:18:22 GMT - 09/15/2023  
Velociraptor vs Protoceratops

Mtl JP  16:17:12 GMT - 09/15/2023  
euro 1.0678 curr Res being tested

Belgrade Bobby  15:05:54 GMT - 09/15/2023  
Sharp , very sharp

Belgrade Bobby  15:01:52 GMT - 09/15/2023  
It still has a chance to push up, but with every passing minute it is less and less possible....

Mtl JP  14:56:29 GMT - 09/15/2023  
EURO reaction GAP
now POOF !

Mtl JP  14:48:46 GMT - 09/15/2023  
Lower inflation expectations = by bidenomics adepts ?

GVI Forex 14:02:57 GMT - 09/15/2023  
Softer U of M sentiment

Lower inflation expectations

Mtl JP  13:59:39 GMT - 09/15/2023  
as seen on ZH
Corporate Execs Call Workers "Lazy," Wish 'Economic Misery' To Remind Them Who's Boss
"We need to see pain in the economy. We need to remind people that they work for the employer, not the other way around"

siding with the FED and the Sacrifice Ratio

Mtl JP  13:51:28 GMT - 09/15/2023  
data top of hour
U of M sentiment and
U of M 1yr inflation

Mtl JP  13:49:18 GMT - 09/15/2023  
EURO 1.0663ish
puppy has issues with 1.0670 Res
really needs to pop N of 1.07 to show ankle
close below low low 1.06xx would open probe deeper

Mtl JP  13:35:25 GMT - 09/15/2023  
odds are players are not in the mood to commit heavily ahead of next week's FOMC

Mtl JP  13:30:12 GMT - 09/15/2023  
10-yr 4.314% +0.024
currently unfriendly to "risk"

nut higher dlr pushing price of crude down some

Mtl JP  01:04:13 GMT - 09/15/2023  
justin - admirer of chinese dictatorship - trudeau
channeling robin hood:
"Large grocery chains are making record profits. Those profits should not be made on the backs of people who are struggling to feed their families," he said, speaking in London, Ont., following a caucus retreat.

He said the government will be asking the five largest grocery companies including Loblaw, Metro, Empire, Walmart and Costco to come up with a plan by Thanksgiving.

"If their plan doesn't provide real relief for the middle class and people working hard to join it, then we will take further action and we are not ruling anything out including tax measures."

"If their plan doesn't provide real relief for the middle class and people working hard to join it, then we will take further action and we are not ruling anything out including tax measures." - yes yes! yes!! yyyeeesss!!! screams the pack of trudeau's socks and hair admiring teenage girls

Trudeau calls on major grocers to stabilize food prices, drawing industry pushback

Mtl JP  00:09:39 GMT - 09/15/2023  
crude at 90.52
been a while that is' been N of 90

I thought Strategic Petroleum Reserve had "Strategic" in its name for a good reason. The SPR's withdrawal capacity, apparently, is 4.4 million barrels per day.

and then ... and then there is the issue of refining it into useable gasoline and diesel. seen some (spontaneous ?) fires there very recently

Mtl JP  23:57:54 GMT - 09/14/2023  
campbell harvey (inventor of yield inversion R predictor):
"It is a catastrophic error if they raise rates again"

I say: it is exactly during a catastrophe is when it is major opportunity to get rich(er)

(FOX Business) CATASTROPHIC ERROR': Economist warns Fed against another rate hike

GVI Forex 22:12:51 GMT - 09/14/2023  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Sept 15 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.

Asian markets are set to end the week strongly following risk-friendly moves in the U.S. and Europe on Thursday, although a deluge of top-tier economic data from China on Friday could sour the mood at a stroke.

Morning Bid: Ebullient markets nervously eye China data dump

Mtl JP  18:12:09 GMT - 09/14/2023  
anyone care ?
NBC News
Biden to contrast 'Bidenomics' to 'MAGAnomics' in a speech in Maryland

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden is expected to highlight the differences between "Bidenomics" and "MAGAnomics" in a speech Thursday afternoon

Mtl JP  17:59:03 GMT - 09/14/2023  
like virginity, once lost 's gone forever
London gold body aims to create secure global database
September 14, 2023

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) on Thursday called for proposals from service firms to create a secure global database that would improve trust in the gold market's value chain.

Mtl JP  17:35:23 GMT - 09/14/2023  
EURO 1.0640

intrestingly euro sells off as ECB puts its rate on the puppy at highest level ever.

“Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long,” ... “The governing council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its two percent medium-term target in a timely manner.” - ECB statement

and degenerate players clapped and laughed and rofl
pass the bottle !

GVI Forex 14:11:55 GMT - 09/14/2023  
KISS. Flllie US yields, watch AT

GVI Forex 13:48:58 GMT - 09/14/2023  
EURUSD 1.0671

Next keycAT level is 1.0634

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP  13:33:02 GMT - 09/14/2023  
DLRx 104.80-ish
so puppy 's still bracketed by 104.50 and 105

needs to breakout on either side to wakeup degenerates' energy juices

GVI Forex 12:32:22 GMT - 09/14/2023  
ECB hikes 25bp (not a surprise) p

Hotter US retail sales

Belgrade Bobby  11:10:38 GMT - 09/14/2023  
I absolutely agree on that last comment !!! (blablabla :D

Mtl JP  11:05:19 GMT - 09/14/2023  
degenerate gamers
Fed economists sound alarm on hedge funds gaming US Treasuries

Researchers at the Federal Reserve have issued warnings in recent weeks about possible disruptions in U.S. Treasuries due to the return of a popular hedge fund trading strategy that exacerbated a crash in the world's biggest bond market in 2020.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Researchers at the Federal Reserve have issued warnings in recent weeks about possible disruptions in U.S. Treasuries due to the return of a popular hedge fund trading strategy that exacerbated a crash in the world's biggest bond market in 2020.

Hedge funds' short positions in some Treasuries futures - contracts for the purchase and sale of bonds for future delivery - have recently hit record highs as part of so-called basis trades, which take advantage of the premium of futures contracts over the price of the underlying bonds, analysts have said.

The trades - typically the domain of macro hedge funds with relative value strategies - consist of selling a futures contract, buying Treasuries deliverable into that contract with repurchase agreement (repo) funding, and delivering them at contract expiry.

In two separate notes in recent weeks, economists at the Fed have highlighted potential financial vulnerability risks related to these trades, which are taking place at a time of volatility in the U.S. government bond market due to higher interest rates and uncertainty over future monetary policy actions.

"Cash-futures basis positions could again be exposed to stress during broader market corrections," Fed economists said in an Aug. 30 note. "With these risks in mind, the trade warrants continued and diligent monitoring." ... Separately, in a Sept. 8 note that looked among other things at hedge funds' Treasury exposures, Fed economists said there was a risk of a rapid unwind of basis trade positions in case of higher repo funding costs.

This would exacerbate episodes of market stress, they warned, "potentially contributing to increased Treasury market volatility and amplifying dislocations in the Treasury, futures, and repo markets." ...

GVI Forex 09:05:22 GMT - 09/14/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

The European Central Bank sets interest rates later today and traders figure we are at or near the peak.

Morning Bid: Is the ECB done?

GVI Forex 00:58:01 GMT - 09/14/2023  

Entry: Target: Stop:
AUD up ahead of jobs data

GVI Forex 20:32:06 GMT - 09/13/2023  

Entry: Target: Stop:
From the other news wire

WASHINGTON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in 14 months in August as the cost of gasoline surged, but the annual rise in underlying inflation was the smallest in nearly two years, likely giving the Federal Reserve cover to leave interest rates unchanged next Wednesday.

Gasoline lights up US consumer inflation; underlying trend steadily improving

GVI Forex 19:31:35 GMT - 09/13/2023  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Bonds aren’t saying this today but Bloomberg article has a different spin.

Washington: Hotter-than-expected inflation likely ensures the Federal Reserve keeps its options open to raise interest rates again in November or December following an expected pause this month.

Fed on alert for one more hike after 'disappointing' inflation

GVI Forex 16:31:20 GMT - 09/13/2023  

Entry: Target: Stop:
US yields lower

Belgrade Bobby  14:45:04 GMT - 09/13/2023  
Looks to me that within next hour or so, we should be testing 1.0750 and if above, we'll be gunning for 1.08300...only problem is that there will be only US in the game ...however, I've seen way too many times moves like that , exactly at given time of the day...

Belgrade Bobby  14:39:28 GMT - 09/13/2023  
In my opinion, if we see today 1.07 or even 1.07100, we'll see 1.06800 soon after...just my opinion :D

GVI Forex 14:36:36 GMT - 09/13/2023  
Bobby, this was a good update in a market that is chadingbits tail.

Belgrade Bobby 09:22 GMT 09/13/2023 - My Profile
Obviously data will be the decision maker today ...right now, eur lost any kind of momentum and if nothing changes within next 3h, it will turn to the down side...once again. I hate when it all comes down to the data ...

See Bonby on�

FX Artist

Mtl JP  14:33:39 GMT - 09/13/2023  
EURO 1.0731
I am thinking (and betting) that 1.07 = Support
as I see a spear towards the 1.0710 area but no follow-thru just a rebound

13:00nyt will see yellen peddle $20bln of new 30-yr paper

Mtl JP  13:56:02 GMT - 09/13/2023  
DLRx 104.33
after all that was said and done more was said than done:
HoD 104.6-ish
LoD 104.15-ish

Bigger points are that puppy could not come near 105 let alone breach it
and now looks to wallow sub 104.50

Probably to the FED gang's collective relief, players are behaving in a subdued manner

GVI Forex 12:00:58 GMT - 09/13/2023  
US CPI next on deck


0.2% vs 0.2% prior, 3.6% y/y vs 3.2% peioe


0.2% vs 0.2% prior, 4.3% vs. 4.7% prior

GVI Forex 10:50:43 GMT - 09/13/2023  
US Market Open: US futures tentative pre-CPI while EGBs/Gilts react to sources & GDP

Belgrade Bobby  10:41:16 GMT - 09/13/2023  
What a pathetic try to reach for the new anyone voted for her...or any of the Brussels biro rats ...

Mtl JP  10:22:18 GMT - 09/13/2023  
EURO 1.07324
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, delivers the State of the Union 2023 address to the European Parliament

"It is the moment to show to the young generation that ...

The full video will be available soon

Mtl JP  10:11:39 GMT - 09/13/2023  
Jeanna Smialek in NYT - Overall Prices Set to Pop in Inflation Report, but Details Should Look Better
The recent rise in gas prices probably pushed up U.S. inflation last month, but an underlying price measure is expected to show a more muted pace.

It could be just an opinion. It could also be a leak.

Mtl JP  10:03:33 GMT - 09/13/2023  
US 10-YR 4.306%
has not been this high in the last 5yrs
reference heading into NY session

Mtl JP  08:38:48 GMT - 09/13/2023  
WTI 89.56

just in time for CPI (august)

GVI Forex 07:33:22 GMT - 09/13/2023  

Entry: Target: Stop:
British economic output contracted by a larger-than-expected 0.5% in July from June, data showed, worse than what economists had forecast in a Reuters poll that pointed to a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.2%.

UK economy stumbles in July as strikes and rain weigh

dc CB  04:29:56 GMT - 09/13/2023  
the Gap??????

You show the gap between the Expiring Sept Contract----the lower price, and the Now Front Month Dec Contract.
The Chart indicates the Roll.

Sept Contract----trading at 4458 ----This contract goes off the boards Friday.
Dec Contract --- trading at 4507

Mtl JP  02:00:33 GMT - 09/13/2023  
for my brothers and sister

Mtl JP  22:05:00 GMT - 09/12/2023  
Forex 20:52 and just in time for Th's us retail sales report

ying yang

GVI Forex 20:52:39 GMT - 09/12/2023  

Entry: Target: Stop:
EURUSD spikes higher on

New ECB inflation forecast: inflation to be above 3% vs3% forecast in June.

Reaction suggests shift from coin to toss to an ECB hike on Thursday.

Mtl JP  15:00:32 GMT - 09/12/2023  
DLR/X 104.47
rather wishi-washi w/ slight uP tint
little commitment ahead of tom,s CPI
but overall no sell of dlr either

I think the FED gang is rather happy atm with player behavior despite dimon's sulphur and fire questioning it

Mtl JP  14:37:18 GMT - 09/12/2023  
closing candle

GVI Forex 12:10:05 GMT - 09/12/2023  
JP, do you look at the gap vs Friday’s close or closing candle?

Mtl JP  10:47:48 GMT - 09/12/2023  
who can help jamie de-miff ?
Dimon slams regulators: 'I would love to know what they really want to accomplish' - September 11, 2023

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon called a new US proposal requiring banks to bolster their capital buffers "hugely disappointing," warning that It could push more lending into private credit markets and have "unintended consequences" for the US economy.

"I would love to know what they really want to accomplish," Dimon said Monday, referring to regulators behind the proposal that was unveiled in July.

Mtl JP  10:43:30 GMT - 09/12/2023  
top today
(Bloomberg) Top fund managers snap up Japan banks on BOJ tightening bets

the theory of buying banks on CB tightening prospects is , theoretically, sound.

GVI Forex 07:46:09 GMT - 09/12/2023  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

Chinese property stocks and Japanese government bonds put on a two-ring show in Asia to start the global day on Tuesday, setting the tone for Europe.

Morning Bid: China developers catch break, BOJ hawks take fligh

GVI Forex 22:59:46 GMT - 09/11/2023  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Sept 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.

Never underestimate the Bank of Japan's ability to move markets.

Just as the dollar's rally appeared to be accelerating and worries over Asian currency weakness deepening, BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a possible shift away from a negative interest rate policy, perhaps before the year is out.

Morning Bid: Japan waves ripple far and wide

dc CB  20:35:37 GMT - 09/11/2023  
Welcome To Triple-Witching Week

Gamma, ODTE, etc

Mtl JP  17:16:10 GMT - 09/11/2023  
atm pretty goodly decent size

dlryen has - with me - nasty reputation: deadly venom and I am not possum
seems like there are 2, maybe three yen players and
unless u r "privilidged" ... good luck

hk ab  16:44:50 GMT - 09/11/2023  
JP// what kind of gap you are expecting on dlrjpy?

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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