DLR/x 4493-ish
raining CBs decisions week (7 of them, lol)
-
makes for wishi-washi waint-n-see type of start to the week
"And just like global markets have been discombobulated this month, the central bank will be grappling with low visibility and a plethora of mixed signals." - Reuters September 18
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-2023-09-18/
EURO 1.0664
-
tight range , prefer selleing pops . opportunistically.
Mtl JP 10:34:54 GMT - 09/18/2023
USDCAD 1.3504
inflation numbers by statsCan tomorrow
-
players expecting 4% + (for 2nd month in row)
some BoC is scheduled to yak after sep 7th macklem's “may be sufficiently restrictive to restore price stability” expert prognosis
GVI Forex09:00:17 GMT - 09/18/2023
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan.
The global chip sector is stealing the spotlight from major central banks, after the world's top contract chipmaker raised concerns over demand, hitting share prices of semiconductor stocks.
EURUSD Entry: Target: Stop:
Can it make it 10 weeks?
From the Morning Bid article
The euro has weakened for the last nine weeks, its longest losing streak ever. The 5% decline over that period is modest relative to other multi-week spells of depreciation, but nine weeks is still record-breaking. A period of consolidation and reversal is surely imminent.
GVI Forex23:24:35 GMT - 09/17/2023
Sept 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.
The Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday is the highlight of the week in Asia, with speculation rising that policymakers may be much closer to moving away from ultra-loose policy and negative interest rates than previously thought.
I have no idea how player collective will react to that on Monday
only to remark that 4460 should have been S level and that buyers should/have come out.
Priceaction next week should, to a degree, reflect player confidence in the FED. Or lack of it.
Mtl JP 12:00:28 GMT - 09/17/2023
usdx Entry: ? Target: ? Stop: ?
players' expectation is 98% FED chickens out
CALENDAR Entry: Target: Stop:
The Federal Reserve has three scheduled meetings remaining in 2023. Of these, November is likely to be the most significant one and may include an interest rate increase. Markets currently anticipate the September and December meetings will hold rates steady.
what DO they know
what do they want YOU to do ?
-
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote on Saturday, while also forecasting the U.S. central bank would lift its economic growth projections when policymakers gather next week.
"On November, we think that further labor market rebalancing, better news on inflation, and the likely upcoming Q4 growth pothole will convince more participants that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) can forgo a final hike this year, as we think it ultimately will," the investment bank's strategists wrote in a report. .../..
Mtl JP 17:55:10 GMT - 09/16/2023
FedWatch Tool
FedWatch uses fed funds futures prices to display current and historical probabilities of FOMC rate outcomes.
�FedWatch was created in the spirit of providing efficient tools to help our clients manage interest rate risks in a transparent and cost-efficient way,� says Agha Mirza, global head of rates and OTC products at CME Group, adding that he and his team launched the indicator after clients showed an appetite for it.
Option Alpha
Triple Witching
When is triple witching?
Triple witching is the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
* this is from a required course --Trading 101--must be taken before moving to Trading 102--Risking Your Own Money. ----- lol
________________________________________________________
And remember the "Week After" Sep Op-Ex has been remarkable in its "consistent weakness", lower 26 of 33 times since 1990, with a median return -1.0% at a 22% hit-rate (i.e. "higher" only 22% of the time) (ZeroHedge)
“There is nothing else like the fighting dinosaurs, which captures direct evidence of a single instant in time.”
The Velociraptor has sunk its deadly foot claw deep into the neck of the herbivore, a boar-sized creature called Protoceratops. This vicious attack may have hit the carotid artery – a lethal blow.
But the Protoceratops fought back. It has thrown the Velociraptor to the ground before it, and its jaws are locked on to the predator’s right arm. The bite appears to have broken the Velociraptor‘s arm.
It still has a chance to push up, but with every passing minute it is less and less possible....
Mtl JP 14:56:29 GMT - 09/15/2023
EURO reaction GAP
now POOF !
Mtl JP 14:48:46 GMT - 09/15/2023
Lower inflation expectations = by bidenomics adepts ?
GVI Forex14:02:57 GMT - 09/15/2023
Softer U of M sentiment
Lower inflation expectations
Mtl JP 13:59:39 GMT - 09/15/2023
as seen on ZH
-
Corporate Execs Call Workers "Lazy," Wish 'Economic Misery' To Remind Them Who's Boss
"We need to see pain in the economy. We need to remind people that they work for the employer, not the other way around"
siding with the FED and the Sacrifice Ratio
Mtl JP 13:51:28 GMT - 09/15/2023
data top of hour
-
U of M sentiment and
U of M 1yr inflation
Mtl JP 13:49:18 GMT - 09/15/2023
EURO 1.0663ish
-
puppy has issues with 1.0670 Res
really needs to pop N of 1.07 to show ankle
close below low low 1.06xx would open probe deeper
Mtl JP 13:35:25 GMT - 09/15/2023
odds are players are not in the mood to commit heavily ahead of next week's FOMC
Mtl JP 13:30:12 GMT - 09/15/2023
10-yr 4.314% +0.024
currently unfriendly to "risk"
nut higher dlr pushing price of crude down some
Mtl JP 01:04:13 GMT - 09/15/2023
justin - admirer of chinese dictatorship - trudeau
channeling robin hood:
-
"Large grocery chains are making record profits. Those profits should not be made on the backs of people who are struggling to feed their families," he said, speaking in London, Ont., following a caucus retreat.
He said the government will be asking the five largest grocery companies including Loblaw, Metro, Empire, Walmart and Costco to come up with a plan by Thanksgiving.
"If their plan doesn't provide real relief for the middle class and people working hard to join it, then we will take further action and we are not ruling anything out including tax measures."
"If their plan doesn't provide real relief for the middle class and people working hard to join it, then we will take further action and we are not ruling anything out including tax measures." - yes yes! yes!! yyyeeesss!!! screams the pack of trudeau's socks and hair admiring teenage girls
crude at 90.52
-
been a while that is' been N of 90
I thought Strategic Petroleum Reserve had "Strategic" in its name for a good reason. The SPR's withdrawal capacity, apparently, is 4.4 million barrels per day.
and then ... and then there is the issue of refining it into useable gasoline and diesel. seen some (spontaneous ?) fires there very recently
Mtl JP 23:57:54 GMT - 09/14/2023
campbell harvey (inventor of yield inversion R predictor):
"It is a catastrophic error if they raise rates again"
I say: it is exactly during a catastrophe is when it is major opportunity to get rich(er)
MARKET CHATTER Entry: Target: Stop:
Sept 15 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.
Asian markets are set to end the week strongly following risk-friendly moves in the U.S. and Europe on Thursday, although a deluge of top-tier economic data from China on Friday could sour the mood at a stroke.
WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden is expected to highlight the differences between "Bidenomics" and "MAGAnomics" in a speech Thursday afternoon
Mtl JP 17:59:03 GMT - 09/14/2023
TRUST
like virginity, once lost 's gone forever
-
REUTERS
London gold body aims to create secure global database
September 14, 2023
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) on Thursday called for proposals from service firms to create a secure global database that would improve trust in the gold market's value chain.
Mtl JP 17:35:23 GMT - 09/14/2023
EURO 1.0640
intrestingly euro sells off as ECB puts its rate on the puppy at highest level ever.
“Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long,” ... “The governing council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its two percent medium-term target in a timely manner.” - ECB statement
and degenerate players clapped and laughed and rofl
pass the bottle !
DLRx 104.80-ish
so puppy 's still bracketed by 104.50 and 105
needs to breakout on either side to wakeup degenerates' energy juices
GVI Forex12:32:22 GMT - 09/14/2023
ECB hikes 25bp (not a surprise) p
Hotter US retail sales
Belgrade Bobby 11:10:38 GMT - 09/14/2023
I absolutely agree on that last comment !!! (blablabla :D
Mtl JP 11:05:19 GMT - 09/14/2023
degenerate gamers
-
Fed economists sound alarm on hedge funds gaming US Treasuries
Researchers at the Federal Reserve have issued warnings in recent weeks about possible disruptions in U.S. Treasuries due to the return of a popular hedge fund trading strategy that exacerbated a crash in the world's biggest bond market in 2020.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Researchers at the Federal Reserve have issued warnings in recent weeks about possible disruptions in U.S. Treasuries due to the return of a popular hedge fund trading strategy that exacerbated a crash in the world's biggest bond market in 2020.
Hedge funds' short positions in some Treasuries futures - contracts for the purchase and sale of bonds for future delivery - have recently hit record highs as part of so-called basis trades, which take advantage of the premium of futures contracts over the price of the underlying bonds, analysts have said.
The trades - typically the domain of macro hedge funds with relative value strategies - consist of selling a futures contract, buying Treasuries deliverable into that contract with repurchase agreement (repo) funding, and delivering them at contract expiry.
In two separate notes in recent weeks, economists at the Fed have highlighted potential financial vulnerability risks related to these trades, which are taking place at a time of volatility in the U.S. government bond market due to higher interest rates and uncertainty over future monetary policy actions.
"Cash-futures basis positions could again be exposed to stress during broader market corrections," Fed economists said in an Aug. 30 note. "With these risks in mind, the trade warrants continued and diligent monitoring." ... Separately, in a Sept. 8 note that looked among other things at hedge funds' Treasury exposures, Fed economists said there was a risk of a rapid unwind of basis trade positions in case of higher repo funding costs.
This would exacerbate episodes of market stress, they warned, "potentially contributing to increased Treasury market volatility and amplifying dislocations in the Treasury, futures, and repo markets." ...
blablabla
GVI Forex09:05:22 GMT - 09/14/2023
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
The European Central Bank sets interest rates later today and traders figure we are at or near the peak.
CALENDAR Entry: Target: Stop:
AUD up ahead of jobs data
GVI Forex20:32:06 GMT - 09/13/2023
MARKET CHATTER Entry: Target: Stop:
From the other news wire
WASHINGTON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in 14 months in August as the cost of gasoline surged, but the annual rise in underlying inflation was the smallest in nearly two years, likely giving the Federal Reserve cover to leave interest rates unchanged next Wednesday.
MARKET CHATTER Entry: Target: Stop:
Bonds aren’t saying this today but Bloomberg article has a different spin.
Washington: Hotter-than-expected inflation likely ensures the Federal Reserve keeps its options open to raise interest rates again in November or December following an expected pause this month.
Looks to me that within next hour or so, we should be testing 1.0750 and if above, we'll be gunning for 1.08300...only problem is that there will be only US in the game ...however, I've seen way too many times moves like that , exactly at given time of the day...
Belgrade Bobby 14:39:28 GMT - 09/13/2023
In my opinion, if we see today 1.07 or even 1.07100, we'll see 1.06800 soon after...just my opinion :D
GVI Forex14:36:36 GMT - 09/13/2023
Bobby, this was a good update in a market that is chadingbits tail.
EURUSD
Belgrade Bobby 09:22 GMT 09/13/2023 - My Profile
Obviously data will be the decision maker today ...right now, eur lost any kind of momentum and if nothing changes within next 3h, it will turn to the down side...once again. I hate when it all comes down to the data ...
Jeanna Smialek in NYT - Overall Prices Set to Pop in Inflation Report, but Details Should Look Better
The recent rise in gas prices probably pushed up U.S. inflation last month, but an underlying price measure is expected to show a more muted pace.
It could be just an opinion. It could also be a leak.
Mtl JP 10:03:33 GMT - 09/13/2023
US 10-YR 4.306%
has not been this high in the last 5yrs
-
reference heading into NY session
Mtl JP 08:38:48 GMT - 09/13/2023
WTI 89.56
just in time for CPI (august)
GVI Forex07:33:22 GMT - 09/13/2023
DATA Entry: Target: Stop:
British economic output contracted by a larger-than-expected 0.5% in July from June, data showed, worse than what economists had forecast in a Reuters poll that pointed to a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.2%.
Forex 20:52 and just in time for Th's us retail sales report
ying yang
GVI Forex20:52:39 GMT - 09/12/2023
ALERT Entry: Target: Stop:
EURUSD spikes higher on
New ECB inflation forecast: inflation to be above 3% vs3% forecast in June.
Reaction suggests shift from coin to toss to an ECB hike on Thursday.
Mtl JP 15:00:32 GMT - 09/12/2023
DLR/X 104.47
-
rather wishi-washi w/ slight uP tint
little commitment ahead of tom,s CPI
but overall no sell of dlr either
I think the FED gang is rather happy atm with player behavior despite dimon's sulphur and fire questioning it
Mtl JP 14:37:18 GMT - 09/12/2023
closing candle
GVI Forex12:10:05 GMT - 09/12/2023
JP, do you look at the gap vs Friday’s close or closing candle?
Mtl JP 10:47:48 GMT - 09/12/2023
miffed
who can help jamie de-miff ?
-
Dimon slams regulators: 'I would love to know what they really want to accomplish' - September 11, 2023
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon called a new US proposal requiring banks to bolster their capital buffers "hugely disappointing," warning that It could push more lending into private credit markets and have "unintended consequences" for the US economy.
"I would love to know what they really want to accomplish," Dimon said Monday, referring to regulators behind the proposal that was unveiled in July.
Mtl JP 10:43:30 GMT - 09/12/2023
top today
-
(Bloomberg) Top fund managers snap up Japan banks on BOJ tightening bets
the theory of buying banks on CB tightening prospects is , theoretically, sound.
GVI Forex07:46:09 GMT - 09/12/2023
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Chinese property stocks and Japanese government bonds put on a two-ring show in Asia to start the global day on Tuesday, setting the tone for Europe.
MARKET CHATTER Entry: Target: Stop:
Sept 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.
Never underestimate the Bank of Japan's ability to move markets.
Just as the dollar's rally appeared to be accelerating and worries over Asian currency weakness deepening, BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a possible shift away from a negative interest rate policy, perhaps before the year is out.
dlryen has - with me - nasty reputation: deadly venom and I am not possum
seems like there are 2, maybe three yen players and
unless u r "privilidged" ... good luck
hk ab 16:44:50 GMT - 09/11/2023
JP// what kind of gap you are expecting on dlrjpy?
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Are you
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.