Mtl JP 14:52 GMT
13:00 - yellen peddles $16bn of 20yr
---------------------------------------------------
13wk and 26wk bills just done
5.27% and 5.23%
mkt seem pretty sold on the idea that rate hikes are done....
Mtl JP 15:07:48 GMT - 11/20/2023
for posterity's reference
-
Business Insider
The stock market just avoided an 'earnings apocalypse,' paving the way for a year-end rally
"We continue to view this as a bull market and that the path of least resistance is higher stock prices through year-end," BMO's Brian Belski said.
DJIA - 35,028.94
SnP - 4,527.75
Mtl JP 14:52:09 GMT - 11/20/2023
on deck
-
12:00 - barkin
13:00 - yellen peddles $16bn of 20yr
above chart: euro s/t target
Mtl JP 14:42:37 GMT - 11/20/2023
DLRx 103.43
-
lets call it "soft"
swiss frank 13:03:09 GMT - 11/20/2023
Maybe too below the radar but German PPI -11% yoy. No typo.
Germany redirecting some Covid related payments (?) leaving a $60 bio budget gap.
US yields marginally higher.
Maybe € worth a sell on strength 1.0935-1.0977..... Maybe.
GVI Forex12:57:28 GMT - 11/20/2023
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.
Thanksgiving may make for a clipped U.S. markets week, but there's plenty to chew on around the world before then - and a feast of intrigue in the artificial intelligence space.
While anything can happen, at present there is no fundamental impetus for dramatic selling in Euro entering the US session. S/P 500 futures are quietly holding onto the bid with 4520 being a possible intra-day tipping point if that changes. Euro is moving with stocks, especially Eur/Jpy.
Japan wages are increasing significantly for the first time in 30 years now. That should impact Yen appreciation some over time if rates and yields remain calmer in the US.
See probability of Eur/Usd 1.0950 in time regardless of the softness which has crept in overnight.
Preference is to go with the flow with weight on the buy side. No reason to be a superstar calling tops and bottoms.
Mtl JP 11:53:59 GMT - 11/20/2023
choose wisely
-
Collins Dictionary
A wise person is able to use their experience and knowledge in order to make sensible decisions and judgments. [...]. (or trades)
Mtl JP 11:46:55 GMT - 11/20/2023
sawing doubt or a breeze of thoughtfulness
-
Business Insider
The stock market incorrectly priced in dovish Fed pivots 6 times in the last few years. Will this 7th time be any different?
time to try to make wisely choice
GVI Forex09:36:30 GMT - 11/20/2023
JPY day…
Mtl JP 03:08:37 GMT - 11/20/2023
Forex 23:58 - want to kick around "Equity and currency market volatility are well anchored, and while bond market volatility is more elevated, it is in the middle of its range over the past year excluding the U.S. banking shock in March." theme ? - (Jamie McGeever)
aka which part(s) of FX world offer better profit-making opps ?
Mtl JP 02:58:51 GMT - 11/20/2023
dc CB ... can you / zh plz answer :
-
Overseas private investors and central banks now own about 30% of all outstanding U.S. government debt, down from roughly 43% a decade ago
Nov 20 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.
China's latest interest rate decision will be the main focus for Asian markets on Monday, with investors also eyeing third-quarter GDP from Thailand, and trade figures from Malaysia and Taiwan.
Argentine Vote
-
Argentinians just voted the libertarian Milei in.
That fact that Perronist relic conceded soooo early in the counting indicates both the win and loss are likely massive.
Mtl JP 19:06:42 GMT - 11/17/2023
DLRx at new LoD
euro trying to break N of 1.09
feels like degenerate traders kicking things around a bit
dc CB 17:56:09 GMT - 11/17/2023
The following week is always posted on**** thurs ****
shud be --by Friday afternoon.
dc CB 17:52:33 GMT - 11/17/2023
GVI Forex 17:25 GMT
Bookmark this page---check here for the answers as to when and how much and what issues . The Page updates daily.
The following week is always posted on thurs .
JP - It is I who am the chameleon. I am here when needed.
PAR15:49:39 GMT - 11/17/2023
Looks like Christine Lagarde is trying to pave the way for the big American hedge funds (Citadel, Bridgewater & Co) and the big US banks
(J.P. Morgan, BAC & Co) to enter the unified European bond and securities markets.
We could see US big capital doing what US big tech has been doing.
Dominate Europe with the help of Christine Lagarde?
Mtl JP 14:06:50 GMT - 11/17/2023
GVI Forex 12:19 - that Jay, sounds really really depressing. no hope.
yet nature offers hints, like the chameleon's
- eyes focusing on different things at once
- tongue as long as its body
- snagging target within 0.07 seconds from firing
think no way to mimic Nature's hint with today's levels of technologies and coding savvy and efficiencies at capturing pips like the chameleon captures the hapless grasshopper, including its less than 0.5/10 failure rate ?
Mtl JP 13:40:00 GMT - 11/17/2023
What could be better ?
-
* Focusing on Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that a continuous decline in the working age population looks set to start as early as 2025, alongside climate disasters which are increasing every year.
* Her answer to these shocks was that massive investment would be needed in a short space of time, requiring what she called “a generational effort.”
EURO 1.0872
-
puppy is close to yesty's 1.0895 to challenge it again
break out N would likely target +/- 1.0950
Mtl JP 13:25:02 GMT - 11/17/2023
DLRx 103.94
current sentiment towards the dollar is down, maybe more down still
-
us yield is somewhat off at 4.41 (probably would need to see N of 4.45/4.5 to relieve weight on the dlr.
Mtl JP 12:38:27 GMT - 11/17/2023
hopes, lol
- Treasury yields slip further amid hopes of a ‘dovish pivot’ by the Fed
- Fed’s Mester wants ‘much more evidence’ that inflation has been defeated
cnbc f/page
GVI Forex12:19:26 GMT - 11/17/2023
JP, we would need a crystal ball
Mtl JP 11:58:30 GMT - 11/17/2023
re KISS
jay : imagine you could predict the yield instead
USD/JPY drops below 150.00 as yields continue to fall
To repeat
mkt
GVI Forex 15:09 GMT 11/16/2023 - My Profile
KISS: Follow the yields
San Francisco Monedge 00:14:20 GMT - 11/17/2023
For a visual, our associates prefer the short side of February Gold futures and March Silver futures above today's closing levels.
San Francisco Monedge 00:11:22 GMT - 11/17/2023
Mtl JP 23:24 GMT 11/16/2023 - Agree on all accounts JP. I felt the market is just rebalancing today from the strong purchasing in Euro. Our associates still prefer the short side in nearby futures I noted the other day from 10892ish but spot is settling right on decline levels in a fairly structured manner. I tested the water very lightly earlier on the long side near lows just to position for any sudden and not expecting much (news) and so took little gains and stayed short Sterling.
Mtl JP 23:24:11 GMT - 11/16/2023
Monedge 16:21 - euro feels wishi-washi as if waiting for some kind of energy kick - which , ceteris paribus, might come in the form next weeks PMI. As I keep repeating trading FX is betting on the "relative" component of the equation. So agree or not, I think that in aggregate, players are looking at data streams from US and from the EU and the relative "slopes": data streams from the EU appear - relatively - euro supportive and mildly clubbing the dollar. If the data trends continue on their relative paths, dlr should see some more down and euro a bit more up oomph. See chart abouve for (sofar) "good news data stream" for the euro by way of one example.
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:06:43 GMT - 11/16/2023
dc CB 16:46 GMT 11/16/2023
some can always try commodity futures.
Go long on watermelons, buy 2 lots @ 3 ride 'em till 10.
dc CB 16:46:34 GMT - 11/16/2023
4week and 8 week bills
Just ---5.29% and 5.28% respectively
Not today it seems. I see growing odds we see 1.0830.
Mtl JP 15:34:18 GMT - 11/16/2023
EURO 1.0930 = ?
tia !
GVI Forex15:09:01 GMT - 11/16/2023
KISS: Follow the yields
San Francisco Monedge 14:51:53 GMT - 11/16/2023
Montreal JP - Concur
Very near term we see the market perhaps trying to find a balance around 1.0850 and if that is not fair value the next area would be the 1.0820 area in our view. If that does not meet the needs of the market then probabilities build for those lower areas to validate the long side going forward should they hold.
In plain English there is some weakness at present with lower values areas holding weight to sustain the long side.
Mtl JP 14:32:25 GMT - 11/16/2023
EURDLR 1.0667
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my being biased means
BoD to 1.0810/00 and 1.0760/50
Mtl JP 14:29:37 GMT - 11/16/2023
DLRx & euro ... niiahh..
-
raining yakkers today:
- 09:25 williams
- 10:30 waller
- 10:35 barr
- 11:45 mester
- 12:00 cook
- 13:30 mester
own bias:
UP on eurdlr
Mtl JP 11:25:32 GMT - 11/16/2023
Ooops - in light of the relative "leader"ship quality and statesmanship between biden and xi ... who has the "upper" hand now and not just on world stage ?
Mtl JP 23:08:18 GMT - 11/15/2023
Jeff Cox
-
* The most recent indications on the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge point to a full percentage point of interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.
* This week has featured two important reports, one showing that consumer prices were unchanged and wholesale prices actually declined half a percent in October.
* “They’re not going to want to signal that now is the time to start talking about decreases in interest rates, even if fed funds futures already has that incorporated,” former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren told CNBC.
maybe even a hi flyin drone dropping a sack of rocks on terrorists... sometimes perhaps even an old fridge...
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:05:43 GMT - 11/15/2023
Those danged ham-asses throwing petrol filled bottles at the army. Army should just use drones to drop hi flying gas bag of petrol on the ground from which those lunatics throw their petrol bombs... see how quickly they vanish.
Caribbean! Rafe... 18:48:59 GMT - 11/15/2023
that's not how it's done.
I don't use pivots created by the markets, in my book that's plagarism...
I create my own pivots and the markets just go there, but sometimes those levels change frequently sometimes they don't change for years... there are lot more things but it just depends, on well... the markets..
GVI Forex18:44:08 GMT - 11/15/2023
US 10 year 4.557%. +11.6bps
I gave you the hint
mkt
GVI Forex 13:47 GMT 11/15/2023 - My Profile
US yields move higher after data. Looks like 4.50%may act like a market pivot.
Caribbean! Rafe... 18:40:49 GMT - 11/15/2023
Not getting much time to examine yields so my target of 5.75% still stands.
Been looking at the war footage though on-off, it's just too atrocious what they have done against Israel, but can suggest the IDF capture, seize and use militant's ordinances against them instead of throwing good bombs on those mad ham-asses. And eventually those crazy Ham-ass lunatics will fire rockets at each other inside tunnels. It's an automatic way for hidden tunnels to identify themselves... and then IDF is like whoa! oh! lordy! we didn't even know there was tunnels deep underneath the same tunnels!!!... Now whaaddd do we do?
Neptune is hungry... turn them into a sea.
Mtl JP 14:37:05 GMT - 11/15/2023
sentiment
-
current and s/term player sentiment about FED imminent tightening is zero
the next Q is ... when will player sentiment go from BoD the usd to sell the rip
GVI Forex13:47:00 GMT - 11/15/2023
US yields move higher after data. Looks like 4.50%may act like a market pivot.
Mtl JP 00:53:07 GMT - 11/15/2023
Clowns
witty trumps humorous
-
to one n all:
add a speech bubble of what the woman sitting behind kennedy is thinking and what goes on in the mind of the one behind gruenberg
bonus points for scintillating answer to kennedy's "what the h3ll is going on at the FDIC"
seeing euro sitting around 1.0835 for the last 45 mins or so
which dir the next 50 pips ?
GVI Forex15:31:42 GMT - 11/14/2023
Those waiting for retracement are sitting with feet stuck in mud
Mtl JP 15:21:47 GMT - 11/14/2023
like a cross-wise toothpick in throat
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(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he’s not convinced inflation is on a clear path toward the central bank’s 2% target despite “real progress” curbing price pressures in recent months.
“I’m just not convinced that inflation is on some smooth glide path down to 2%,”
Mtl JP 15:16:50 GMT - 11/14/2023
euro 1.0831
-
clear and convincing evidence
maybe evidence BUT how much more progress do the FED artists need
so that they conclude that they have reached appropriate level and that their work of raising interest rates is done ?
Mtl JP 14:59:28 GMT - 11/14/2023
EURO 1.0833
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12:45 so they are dispatching goolsbee on deck to yak on economy and mon policy
houston ... we got a ...
GVI Forex13:34:40 GMT - 11/14/2023
US CPI misses on downside
Mtl JP 11:15:49 GMT - 11/14/2023
apparently this is where the crowed is moving
-
Bloomberg
Investors Dump Cash to Chase Bonds, BofA Survey Shows
-- Investors turned the most bullish on bonds since the global financial crisis on “big conviction” that rates will move lower in 2024, according to the latest Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey.
NY JM 10:26:00 GMT - 11/14/2023
Conspiracy theory says someone had a leak onthecGetmsn ZEW report (stronger)
Mtl JP 09:45:11 GMT - 11/14/2023
10-YR 4.612% -0.02; EURO 1.0711; Gold 1947
"Our fight is your fight." "We have to win. There is no substitute for victory. Total victory." - Netanyahu with hannity on fox nov 13 '23
USDJPY Entry: Target: Stop:
Why USDJPY 152 is the line in the sand
If the battered currency breaks through last year's trough of 151.94, it would mark a 33-year low.
GVI Forex07:40:36 GMT - 11/14/2023
MARKET CHATTER Entry: Target: Stop:
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee
With investors' focus squarely on U.S. inflation data, due later on Tuesday, markets have had a muted Asian session, although traders remain transfixed by the battered yen's relentless march towards a three-decade low.
I wish the markets were not so strictly regulated like that I'd be able to make a few calls and prove it.
Caribbean! Rafe... 20:42:39 GMT - 11/13/2023
dc CB 19:22 GMT 11/13/2023
They gotta sort out the problems with America's credit rating and make it even more solid.
fwiw... A few funds here returning 35% + pa... But the thing is there are innumerable big trades returning 20x more than that, with more than 90% of the trends on all of them being intact and having a lot of ground left for them to cover.
On a long term basis the potential for growth and also profits from them are practically limitless. Yes, there are a few minor corrections along the way but up and up and upwards they skyrocket, and with each passing day NAV keeps growing but more than 90% of the trends still remain intact and keep growing further out, no matter what happens geo-politically...
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:57:06 GMT - 11/13/2023
Mtl JP 22:58 GMT 11/12/2023 - My Profile
It didn't take much...
will send them to you soon.
dc CB 19:22:34 GMT - 11/13/2023
Benjamin Picton, senior markets strategist at Rabobank
Stubborn inflation pressures, and the risk of ‘un-anchored’ expectations may have been on Fed Chair Powell’s mind last week when he told an IMF conference in Washington that “we’re trying to make a judgement at this point about whether we need to do more.”
This recalls Powell’s words from August, where he said that: “we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”.
In short, the Fed doesn’t know whether it has done enough or not, and if the world’s most powerful central banker is uncertain on the outlook for rates and inflation, perhaps it comes as no surprise that compensation for uncertainty (the term premium) has been rising since July.
best image of PowPowPowell so far.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Market implied Fed Funds rate discount a string of cuts starting in January 2024 and culminating in a 4.492 percent in January 2025. These expectations are based on the perception that the Federal Reserve will achieve a soft landing and that inflation will drop rapidly. However, market participants who assume rate cuts will be bullish may be taking too much risk for the wrong reasons.
US yields higher => for trying to follow (emphasize the word “trying”)
Mtl JP 07:37:16 GMT - 11/13/2023
USDJPY 151.715 at fresh 23 low
got balls ?
Mtl JP 07:31:39 GMT - 11/13/2023
10-yr 4.644%
-
Bloomberg
Dudley Warns US Fiscal Position Is on ‘Unsustainable Trajectory’
LockBit digital extortion gang: “We are located in the Netherlands, completely apolitical and only interested in money,”
* Cyber ‘Catastrophe Bonds’ Move Step Closer to Hitting Public Debt Markets
(Bloomberg) -- Cyber catastrophe bonds may be about to move out of the shadows of private deal-making and into the public debt markets.
Reuters
In the Market: Inside Wall Street's scramble after ICBC hack
... impact ... was limited ... is under review ... wakeup call ... financial markets resillience
Bloomberg
Australia Cyberattack Leaves 30,000 Containers Stuck at Ports
(Bloomberg) -- DP World Plc is struggling to work through a backlog of 30,000 shipping containers piled up at ports across Australia as the company resumes operations after a cyberattack.
The Canadian Press
What they want: Biden and Xi are looking for clarity in an increasingly difficult relationship
Experts
As Biden and Xi gear up for a high-stakes meeting, experts have low expectations - cnbc
“The United States has no desire to decouple from China. A full separation of our economies would be economically disastrous for both our countries, and for the world,” - Yellen
Xi will be looking for strong language from Washington opposing Taiwan's independence.
U.S.-China interactions should be defined by dialogue and win-win cooperation - Xi
GVI Forex07:31:36 GMT - 11/13/2023
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Chip stocks gave Asian equity investors some small bit of cheer to start the week, picking up where Wall Street left off while U.S. yields stayed subdued, which kept a lid on the dollar, too.
Caribbean! Rafe... thank you for the thought provoking posts and time it took to write them up
GVI Forex22:53:50 GMT - 11/12/2023
Nov 13 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.
Asian markets should get the week off to a blistering start on Monday, propelled higher by Wall Street's powerful rally on Friday that saw the Nasdaq rise more than 2% for its best day since May.
Been listening to this song. It's fitting... they should have produced this song 20+ years ago and used it as part of the soundtrack for Pearl Harbor. It is the most fitting song for some of the clippettes I have seen from that movie Or even as part of the soundtrack for some of the scenes in Armageddon...
Believe me if they produce a movie along similar lines using Skyline as a soundtrack then trust me... ain't nuthing better than it!.
Don't mind me though I have yet to watch that movie... =)
So you see? I told you so already didn't I? Hahaha! Believe me I'm just laughing and laughing.!!! ROTFL!!!
Yes I trade professionally.
If I didn't then I would not have been able to write even 1% of what I have in my posts.
"Dow leaps nearly 400 points Friday, major averages notch a second week of gains" - cnbc
Proves the rule I posted in my Caribbean! Rafe... 20:23 GMT 11/09/2023 - My Profile
My own rules are "Higher yields force equities upwards, not downwards".
That is how wealth is created literally out of thin air...
I don't care what they teach in economics classes, and it's good I did not go there as I would have been kicked out (again).
Mtl JP 12:51:34 GMT - 11/11/2023
stocks laughing at the 'not confident' FED:
-
"Dow leaps nearly 400 points Friday, major averages notch a second week of gains" - cnbc
that cheekiness is like a mocking taunt, FED gang may take it as a war declation
Mtl JP 00:12:26 GMT - 11/11/2023
Hello Janet, hello Joe
-
New York
CNN
—
The United States is one step closer to losing its last perfect credit rating after Moody’s Investors Service changed the outlook of the nation’s debt to negative on Friday after markets closed.
While the move does not automatically mean it will downgrade America’s creditworthiness, it increases the chances. .../..
Mtl JP 22:49:55 GMT - 11/10/2023
YELLEN says
-
Yahoo Finance
Yellen and China's He "had candid, direct, and productive discussions" - Treasury
The New York Times
Yellen Says U.S. Wants 'Healthy' Economic Ties With China
Reuters
Yellen warns Beijing: Chinese firms aiding Russia face 'significant consequences'
Reuters
Yellen to 'intensify communication' with China's He, warns on Russia support
Yahoo Finance
Yellen: wouldn't be a surprise if China is trimming Treasury holdings
SooToday.com
Yellen says ransomware attack on China's biggest bank minimally disrupted Treasury market trades
Mtl JP 20:27:53 GMT - 11/10/2023
DLRx 105.67
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r u kidding me !
******
I go back to my 11:29
dc CB 18:05:03 GMT - 11/10/2023
dc CB 17:40 GMT 11/10/2023
dc CB 15:58 GMT 11/09/2023
BetCoin----ETF(?)---makes Betcoin 'institutionally acceptable'
__________________________________--
the New AI ----the next sheeple trend?
dc CB 15:58 GMT 11/09/2023
BetCoin----ETF(?)---makes Betcoin 'institutionally acceptable'
__________________________________--
the New AI ----the next sheeple trend?
“2024 literally is going to be a year of institutional adoption, primarily first through the Bitcoin ETF, which will be followed by an Ethereum ETF,” Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz said during the Q3 earnings call.
“As institutions get more comfortable, if the government gives its seal of approval that Bitcoin is a thing, you are going to see the rest of allocators starting to look at things outside of that. And so, money will flow into the space.”
Nov. 11 marks Veterans Day, a federal holiday in which Americans recognize those who have served in the U.S. armed forces. And because the holiday falls on a Saturday, the holiday is set to be observed on Friday, Nov. 10, according to the U.S
Mtl JP 11:29:57 GMT - 11/10/2023
powell - markets - interest - inflation
goal: bring inflation back untill he is confident
theme: confident
-
08:30 nov 14 - CPI (reference point: 3.7%)
08:30 nov 15 - retail sales; PPI
With us consumer and economy apparently being resillient to higher interest, the "longer" part has yet to prevail for longer than players are currently discounting.
I like to use the Sacrifice Ratio for refence.
Mtl JP 10:53:08 GMT - 11/10/2023
DLR/x 105. 72-ish
powell - markets - interest - inflation
-
powell came out and tried to land a kick-in-the-nuts of the hard of hearing that the FED gang is "not confident" that they have done enough to restrain inflation.
bonds, from appearances, have hear n understood. Stocks on the other hand have, imo, some understanding to do as do, especially, DLR players
It would appear that the FED still has some coercive blabla/actions to do to convert remaining "non-believers" who are blocking the closing of the GAP
Mtl JP 00:37:43 GMT - 11/10/2023
USDJPY 151.32
wanna a dare short ?
-
Jamie McGeever in Jay's link below makes a good point about the puppy
A good case of how quickly things FX can turn on a heel from earlier ignoring lower us yield to suddenly wham ! and ieaha 4.64% !
Mtl JP 00:21:28 GMT - 11/10/2023
early asia IS following W/S's lead and when it comes to stocks it is a bit of a pothole atm rather than a bump
Mtl JP 23:56:01 GMT - 11/09/2023
Jay ... "the day ahead in Asian markets"
-
the early bird already got the worm (see chart)
maybe there is a bit more left in the slide. maybe. no guarantee.
risk control/mngmnt is your resp
lets see
Mtl JP 23:50:24 GMT - 11/09/2023
Rafe... 20:23 if you actually trade ...
by the what you call "own rules are "Higher yields force equities upwards, not downwards" ...
The basic investments 101 chapter on Who makes moolah when interest rates go up
- bond buyers
- banks (and other) lenders
early in the cycle and savers too but they usually benefit much later in the rising rates cycle.
Mtl JP 23:26:22 GMT - 11/09/2023
50-yr bond -- to the best of my knowledge US Tr does not peddle such an animal. 50-yr nad + is usually the domain of banana gov'ts.
--
looking at end-of-day price-prancing by "risk" I am happy to observe that they heeded jerome's hawk yik-yak (ref JP 19:23)
BUT
relatively meekly: the GAP-down is still alive
GVI Forex23:12:20 GMT - 11/09/2023
Nov 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.
Asian markets are set to end the week with a bump on Friday, after Fed chief Jerome Powell the day before warned that U.S. interest rates may need to rise further to win the war on inflation.
My Own Fundamentalist Observations: Just like I have been saying all these years...
There are very strong correlations with the spike in Covid levels and that curse on humanity called Bitcoin/crypto... both of them boom together.
Eliminating one means the other one automatically withers.
They are both Twins... Like the "Nostradamus Twins"...
The twins in his quatrains had nothing to do with WTC 9/11, afghanistan or Iraq etc... It's about Covid-19 and Bitcoin...
The last time when I read about a quatrain was when it was discussed here...
Caribbean! Rafe... 21:41:10 GMT - 11/09/2023
dc CB 19:31 GMT 11/09/2023
Higher yields are good... CB Lemme ask you a Q...
Question: Who buys 30Y & 50Y Bonds and why.
Answer: People who spend money on themselves, and companies mitigating their risks. All of their money is used to buy long duration bonds, so when they make a claim it is honored by the insurance companies... The second reason is pension funds need to invest deductions on a long term basis. The third reason is the new class of investors who were being misled by the media and needed guidance on what to do with their savings, since their confidence in the banks had started to wane due to poor service levels being given to them as clients. There are other reasons too such as funds not wanting to bank on cash because of inflationary pressures along with the fear of banking instability and collapses which came about as a result of the pandemic. These are few of the reasons for yield spikes. The central banks also did not allocate as many bills and bonds as they should have which caused what I call a "yield run". eg. The demand was for $40B but they only issued for $15B maybe because of "certain requirements".
Anyhows I anticipate yields will continue to the Skyline...
dc CB 21:39:02 GMT - 11/09/2023
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:22 GMT 11/09/2023 - My Profile
This says it all...
A picture is worth more than one thousand words...
____________________________________________
from Sept 2020-----and it ain't recovered yet....and prob won't
NY City has not recovered from Covid
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ftsa&q=NY+City+has+not+recovered+from+Covid&pn=1&iar=news&ia=news
Mtl JP 14:57 GMT 11/09/2023 - My Profile
on deck
-
11:00 barkin (fed policy and econ outlook)
12:00 paese (monetary pol and economy)
12:30 lagarde
13:00 yellen peddles 24bln of 30yr paper
14:00 guess who (hint it s a "he" and yaks at some IMF event)
and the resust at the end of the day..............................
That's the only way one can describe today's 30Y auction, which many expected could be challenging after a mediocre 3Y and a subpar 10Y auction earlier this year, but nobody expected... this.
The bond priced at a high yield of 4.769%, which was below last month's 4.837%, and just shy of the April 2010 high. But more importantly, it tailed the When Issued by a whopping 5.3bps, which was... well... terrible, because as shown in the chart below, this was the biggest tail on record (going back to 2016).
USDCAD 1.3764 (low 1.3745)
-
just as Bobby talked about "footing" I consider the probe below 1.3750 just that: a probe . or a jubb
Puppy would need to hold under 1.3750 to get excited about lower.
see how it closes
dc CB 16:06:12 GMT - 11/09/2023
oil
gee ya think The Big Guy is buying??
Ya think Secy Granholm sees a good entry point---ya thing she's a 'trader'?
dc CB 15:58:51 GMT - 11/09/2023
BetCoin----ETF(?)---makes Betcoin 'institutionally acceptable'. ie You are no longer considered a 'kooky prepper'. And it's now OK to frontrun.
--------------------------------------
“We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot Bitcoin ETF approvals,” James Seyffart, research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote on the topic.
“But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur.”
Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro agreed.
“BTC sure is trading like an ETF decision is due any moment,
on deck
-
11:00 barkin (fed policy and econ outlook)
12:00 paese (monetary pol and economy)
12:30 lagarde
13:00 yellen peddles 24bln of 30yr paper
14:00 guess who (hint it s a "he" and yaks at some IMF event)
Mtl JP 14:49:57 GMT - 11/09/2023
stox edging lower, treasuris off a bit should be seeing USD higher
something is cross-wise
Mtl JP 11:58:27 GMT - 11/09/2023
it is my contention that the next six or so months should be brutal,
and holding interest rates steady (ie high) for longer and x-ing fingers it will bring inflation down to 2% - without a recession - will not happen.
Economy (GDP) may slow but price inflation is and will continue to happily percolate. It is the "last mile" to 2% that will, imo, need to see "feris curatio"
Mtl JP 10:28:13 GMT - 11/09/2023
six months pilgrim
--------------------
* Global markets see average policy rate falling within a year
* Such bets backfired before on resilient inflation, growth
(Bloomberg) -- Rates traders are betting that the steepest global tightening cycle in a generation is over and that monetary easing will begin from mid-2024.
Swaps signal the average cash rate for developed economies will be steady over the coming six months, the first time in two years that they’re not pricing in a hike over that time frame, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They also show a 50-basis point reduction in the aggregated rate within a year, the biggest bet on easing since the pandemic. ..
To be sure, it’s a risky bet as previous wagers to that effect backfired after inflation proved to be stickier than anticipated and expectations of a recession failed to materialize.
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee
An uneasy calm prevailed during Asian trade as investors digested a flurry of comments from central bank officials to look for signs of whether global interest rates have peaked, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell yet again to take centre stage.
Remember this guy ?
-
Former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz has won the National Business Book Award this year.
Poloz was nominated for a book called "The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future.'
The book talks about how the Bank of Canada works and why it does what it does.
He takes home a $30,000 prize with the award.
(applause)
GVI Forex18:43:09 GMT - 11/08/2023
Oil down
Gold down
Commodity currencies down
Bond yields down
Disconnect is weaker jpy
Mtl JP 17:28:04 GMT - 11/08/2023
judging from price-action players are not currently intimidated by the FED's higher for longer sing-song as they are letting the DLR have it on the chin
dc CB 17:25:49 GMT - 11/08/2023
BREAKING: A Massive Fire Has Broken Out at a Petroleum Processing Plant in Shepherd, TX
Multiple fire agencies are on the scene and residents within a five-mile radius are being asked to shelter in place. pic.twitter.com/NSQZtegwGZ
— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) November 8, 2023
DEVELOPING: Dark smoke and flames rise high into the sky at the site of a massive reported chemical fire in San Jacinto County, Texas. pic.twitter.com/7boNpvjWsB
— ABC News (@ABC) November 8, 2023
"At this time, the effects of the chemical in the air are unknown."
still on deck
-
13:00 - janet peddles 40bln of 10yr paper
13:40 - williams
14:00 - barr
16:45 - jefferson
Mtl JP 14:47:36 GMT - 11/08/2023
EURO 105.50
yesty kashkari probably said all that degenerate trades need
i.e prepared the ground for jerome to simply not negate by not even just talk about what neel said
bottom line
- target in red
- insta-sell once hit
GVI Forex13:56:58 GMT - 11/08/2023
Powell scheduled to give opening remarks around 14:15 GMT
It does not seem to be the venue for policy remarks but it pays to stay alert.
The Federal Reserve is hosting a conference on November 8, 2023, to celebrate the centennial of the Division of Research and Statistics.
GVI Forex13:42:49 GMT - 11/08/2023
MARKET CHATTER Entry: Target: Stop:
Heavy option expiries said to be at usdjpy 151 today NY cut (10 AM EST)
Mtl JP 12:02:42 GMT - 11/08/2023
10-YR 4.575% +0.004, USDx 1.0554
jerome "higher for longer" yaks today
-
CME:
16% odds a hike by jan;
21% odds of rate cuts by march
Financial Post
Posthaste: The risk of forced home sales is rising in Canada, warns economist
..."A chill has settled over Canada’s housing market and the big fear of any downturn is that heavily indebted homeowners will be forced to sell, fuelling a downward spiral." ...
good opportunities come to those
- who wait
- with cash
Mtl JP 10:36:07 GMT - 11/08/2023
my news feed has some new
"yellen says"
-
not posting any as I don't see any potential for gaming "em for s/t profit
save time and focus elsewhere for things more relevant
Mtl JP 10:08:53 GMT - 11/08/2023
excellent news (for some)
-
Credit card debt hit new $1.08 trillion record in the third quarter. Here's how we got here - cnbc f/page
* Collectively, Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
* Steadily, persistently higher prices have caused consumers to spend down their savings and increasingly turn to credit cards to make ends meet.
* At the same time, credit cards are one of the most expensive ways to borrow money.
vulnerable and fickle
-
Euro zone bond yields hold steady as investors eye 2024 rate cuts
LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields fell slightly on Wednesday as investors weighed signs of an economic slowdown against a survey which showed consumer inflation expectations rose in September.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the bloc, was last down 2 basis points at 2.646%, just above an almost two-month low of 2.629%
(US 10-YR 4.577% +0.006)
Mtl JP 09:47:42 GMT - 11/08/2023
EURO 105.65
-
altho technically a breakout, the thing that is going is that not much is going on sofar
Mtl JP 07:25:46 GMT - 11/08/2023
euro 1.0556 -- 4th attempt at going higher
GVI Forex06:22:08 GMT - 11/08/2023
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Markets are largely in a holding pattern, with investors looking to two days of commentary from Fed Chair Jay Powell starting later in the day for a steer on whether U.S. rate hikes are indeed done.
CB 23:52 - thanks gawd that someone is watchful and there "is the FED, after all they are humans too, they are always working to improve economic conditions and keep the country growing."
dc CB 23:52:11 GMT - 11/07/2023
How Treasury Averted A Bond Market "Earthquake" In The Last Second: What Everyone Missed In The TBAC's Remarkable Refunding Presentation
"Such developments are likely to trigger significant risk parity volatility and dollar volatility which could deliver a stage 3 R** event requiring immediate Fed easing and stop of QT."
Bankrupt WeWork Could Accelerate CRE Crisis As It Prepares To Dump 40 NYC Office Tower Leases
Update (1110ET):
Manhattan's largest private office lessee, WeWork, has collapsed into bankruptcy. Court papers indicate plans to abandon dozens of office lease agreements across the metropolitan area, which might worsen the commercial real estate crisis.
According to Bloomberg, "Dormant locations in New York dominate a list of nearly 70 leases the coworking giant intends to terminate, court papers show. The roughly 40 contracts at issue include space near Union Square and in Fulton Center, a retail and transit facility in downtown Manhattan."
Bankrupt WeWork to Immediately Dump 40 NYC Office Leases: BBG
Buildings vacated by WeWork might ripple through an already weakened CRE market because the coworking startup is an anchor tenant for numerous buildings that account for "about $2.6 billion in CMBS debt, with about half of those loans reaching maturity within the next 12 months," according to real estate news website Commercial Observer. Already, 80% of those landlords are on a special servicing watchlist, delinquent on their loans, and or in default, according to CMBS data firm Trepp.
The Treasury sells $112 billion of new notes and bonds this week, starting with $48 billion of 3-year notes later on Tuesday - before new benchmark 10-year and 30-year tenors hit the Street on Wednesday and Thursday.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, New York Fed President John Williams, Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid all speak
GVI Forex11:58:51 GMT - 11/07/2023
MARKET CHATTER Entry: Target: Stop:
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
World markets are trying to calibrate last week's steep rally in stocks and bonds - tempering some of the overcaffeinated rate cut hopes that emerged but sustaining the bulk of the gains and lapping up a fresh oil price slide.
what service !
peasant traders feeding on silver platter:
-
Reuters - Futures dip as rate cut optimism wanes; more Fed speakers on tap
Kashkari doused hopes of early rate cuts late on Monday, saying the central bank likely has more work ahead of it to control inflation ...
Market participants will parse commentary from Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams later on Tuesday for more clues on the central bank's interest rate path. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks will grab the spotlight on Wednesday.
Mtl JP 10:10:05 GMT - 11/07/2023
he...loww janet
-
Moscow circumvents the G-7 oil-price cap by moving crude on a fleet of aging tankers on which sanctions have limited traction
but it would appear that something else than higher yield is propelling it up atm as 10-yr is actually off at 4.614%
Mtl JP 09:53:13 GMT - 11/07/2023
EURO 1.0699
-
right on st Sup
Mtl JP 06:10:52 GMT - 11/07/2023
lets see ... IF stocks are / going to be / paying attention to the shift
-
10-yr 4.639%; US_500 4374.75
***
bbrg
oil edged lower as an uncertain demand outlook and fresh doubts on the end of Fed’s tightening outweighed Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extension of supply cuts.
Key events this week:
China forex reserves, Tuesday
Eurozone PPI, Tuesday
US trade, Tuesday
UBS earnings, Tuesday
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and his Dallas counterpart Lorie Logan speak, Tuesday
Eurozone retail sales, Wednesday
Germany CPI, Wednesday
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Wednesday
US wholesale inventories, Wednesday
New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Wednesday
Bank of Japan issues October summary of opinions, Thursday
BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on the economy, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, Thursday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in panel on monetary policy challenges at the IMF’s annual research conference in Washington, Thursday
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and his Richmond counterpart Tom Barkin speak, Thursday
UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in fireside chat, Friday
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 2:18 p.m. Tokyo time. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
Japan’s Topix fell 1%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.4%
The Shanghai Composite fell 0.3%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.2%
Mtl JP 05:57:54 GMT - 11/07/2023
more from bbrg
=
Traders are now predicting the Fed will lean against the recent easing in financial conditions by saying it will keep its options open on policy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it’s too soon to declare victory over inflation, despite positive signs that price pressures are easing, and a host of Fed officials — including Chair Jerome Powell — are due to speak over the next few days.
Mtl JP 05:54:44 GMT - 11/07/2023
say what ... a shift ?
-
Stocks Fall With Doubts Over Fed Pause in Focus: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) -- Equities in Asia declined as fresh doubts emerged on whether the Federal Reserve has finished tightening policy. The dollar advanced.
Mtl JP 05:45:35 GMT - 11/07/2023
awwww ...
-
(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s central bank resumed raising interest rates on Tuesday in a widely anticipated move, while signaling a higher hurdle to further policy tightening that sent the currency lower.
dc CB 02:17:45 GMT - 11/07/2023
there's more...
Google Abandons Massive Plan That Would Have Built 15,000 Homes in San Francisco Area
Google pulled out of a $15 billion investment in Santa Clara County after demolition had already begun. The company says it will look at other strategies.
Mtl JP 17:24 GMT 11/06
eye on yellen
seeked, seeks, will seek
-
November 6, 2023
WASHINGTON – Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen will host People’s Republic of China (PRC)Vice Premier He Lifeng for two days of bilateral meetings on November 9 and 10 .............................................. in San Francisco
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
and she won't be the least bit embrassed----as the former Head of The San Francisco FED.
**The unraveling of San Francisco's office sector has been stunning so far. The once-thriving urban center is now grappling with a record-high 30% vacancy rate in office buildings,,
On Friday, McDonald's restaurant at 235 Front St. in the Financial District served its last Big Mac after a three-decade run, according to San Francisco Business Times.
Scott Rodrick, the McDonald's franchise owner, said the "post-pandemic realities of operating the downtown restaurant simply became unbearable for the franchisee and McDonald's Corp."
Of 39 economists surveyed, 34 forecast the RBA will raise its cash rate another 25 basis-points to 4.35% - reuters
in mortal fear of "inflation expectations are not unanchored"
would be 13th if she hikes
Mtl JP 00:58:30 GMT - 11/07/2023
on deck
-
22:30 - RBA Cash Rate Target
"forecast to raise interest rates" - bbrg
u know ... stiki prices ... resillient economy ... blablabla
GVI Forex00:09:09 GMT - 11/07/2023
Nov 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.
Tuesday will be one of the busiest days of the year for Asian markets in terms of top-tier regional economic data and events, and investors could not be going into it on a stronger footing.
Any questions!
------------------------------------------------------------------
"The Market Traded As If It Had Been Delivered QE"
"if you look at cross asset price action the market traded as if it had been delivered QE with bonds up/eq up, credit tighter/bonds up, Cyc/def up/bonds up and vol down/bonds up."
(paywalled)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-traded-if-it-had-been-delivered-qe
Mtl JP 17:24:04 GMT - 11/06/2023
eye on yellen
seeked, seeks, will seek
-
November 6, 2023
WASHINGTON – Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen will host People’s Republic of China (PRC)Vice Premier He Lifeng for two days of bilateral meetings on November 9 and 10 ... bla bla bla
DLRx 104.88 connected at the hip with
10-Year 4.614% up vs short while ago
Mtl JP 12:50:20 GMT - 11/06/2023
WSJ f/page:
headache for bosses the FED and its Sacrifice Ratio
-
The New Headache for Bosses: Employees Aren’t Quitting
Just last year, companies were struggling to keep staff. Now, they say not enough people are leaving their jobs.
gaming consideration:
How Russia Games Oil Sanctions for Big Profits
Mtl JP 12:44:59 GMT - 11/06/2023
7:43 AM EST
10-yr 4.599% +0.041
Mtl JP 12:34:54 GMT - 11/06/2023
not just blackrock ...
-
Mark Hulbert
Stock traders are too bullish and that’s bearish for the market
Nov. 6, 2023 at 7:18 a.m. ET
Market timers are eagerly riding this latest rally
The U.S. stock market’s late-October low is unlikely to be the final low of the correction that began this summer.
That’s the conclusion reached by a contrarian analysis of market timer sentiment. At no point during the July-through-October decline did the market timing community exhibit the despair and pessimism that typically accompanies a significant bottom.
Perhaps...
Mtl JP 11:30:40 GMT - 11/06/2023
DLRx 104.75; US_500 4383
-
Nov 6, 2023 (Bloomberg) — Any year-end rally in stocks could prove short-lived because equities don’t fully reflect the outlook for rates remaining higher for longer, according to Jean Boivin, who heads the research arm at BlackRock Inc.
always a spoiler eh , or maybe prescient ?
Mtl JP 10:53:51 GMT - 11/06/2023
November 6, 2023 (Bloomberg)
— Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled it’s unlikely policymakers will have the data needed to declare by year-end that it’s time to put an end to negative interest rates, as he continues to monitor whether a wage-inflation cycle will materialize.
tks bro !
GVI Forex23:26:35 GMT - 11/05/2023
Nov 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.
Asia is poised to start this week as it finished last week, with risk assets and investor sentiment buoyed by growing confidence in the U.S. economic 'soft landing', and easing financial conditions from the slide in the dollar and U.S. bond yields.
whispers swirling
-
after some 6,000 salary overhead turfings sofar this yr at canadian banks , more moRE are in the purgings pipeline.
This should be good for bank stock performance.
******
lagarde says
- Lagarde says ECB will get inflation down to 2% target in 2025
(Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that slowing inflation is “certainly our forecast” and that the institution is determined to return prices to its target.
did she offer a guarantee - say by way of income tax rebate at end 2025 , hahaha , how naive of me
Mtl JP 00:53:26 GMT - 11/05/2023
hahaha, the "experts" at BoC are concerned !
-
Bank of Canada voices concerns about variable rate mortgage products -Bloomberg News
Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada has urged banks to reconsider offering variable rate mortgages with fixed payments, concerned about the number of borrowers faced with negative amortization of their loans.
“I think that product needs a close look and I think it’ll get a close look,” Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers said in an interview with Bloomberg News on Friday. ... ... blablabla ...
I think caroline , formely a mandarin as Assistant Superintendent, Regulation Sector at the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), where she was responsible for policy-related functions, including capital, accounting and legislation, had a chance THEN to actually shape policy and regs. So why is she piping about it NOW, sitting at an outfit (for a north of $400K?) that is dispensing harsh medicine on the economy ? I spare you my view as it would likely contain unkind and harsh words.
I hope they buy 99.9999 yards worth of treasuries per week on a per week cycle throughout the year for the next 10-15 years, there is no harm with that way I have suggested... Treasuries are like wishes coming true!. They start making profits from the following business day and are paid at par automatically every week, it's the most profitable high turnover low margin business in the world.
dc CB 17:58:54 GMT - 11/03/2023
Just like sheep----so easily moved ---just hit the 'algo' trigger points -
"Non Impediti Ratione Cogitationis" (Unencumbered by the Thought Process)
Buying Frenzy Activated: All CTA Buy Pivots Triggered, Sparking Over $200BN In Stock Buys This Month
Equity CTAs are now set to buy as much as $52BN in S&P futures over the next month and a whopping $207 billion in global stocks, not to mention also billions in treasuries.
dc CB 17:54:07 GMT - 11/03/2023
WTI --- 80.32. Low 80.14.
Ya think the Biden Energy Dept will Buy some for the Strat Petro Reserve-----now that the war drums are seriously beating.....they did say 79 was thiet by point.
Mtl JP 17:39:33 GMT - 11/03/2023
grand entertainment
-
druckenmiller mocking yellen as having made “the biggest blunder in history”:
“When rates were practically zero, every Tom, Dick, Harry, and Mary in the United States refinanced their mortgage,” “Unfortunately, we had one entity that did not, and that was the US Treasury.”
“Well, I disagree with that assessment,” Yellen
Mtl JP 16:57:57 GMT - 11/03/2023
IF so ... time soon to load up on realestate ETFs
Mtl JP 16:52:39 GMT - 11/03/2023
in sept, oct., nov., dec., 2024 ?
and qtr qtr qtr full point ?
GVI Forex16:45:46 GMT - 11/03/2023
After 150K Jobs Four Rate Cuts Projected for 2024
Mtl JP 16:11:51 GMT - 11/03/2023
good summary - cnbc fpage
-
"Bad news for the economy is good news for the stock market ... as long as it doesn’t get too bad"
U.S. payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, less than expected
watch liveStocks rise on soft jobs report as market heads for best week of 2023
GVI Forex14:03:42 GMT - 11/03/2023
Weaker ISM services PMI buy bonds not reacting
Mtl JP 13:42:16 GMT - 11/03/2023
correction: my 106.50 reference below should be 105.50
I beg your pardon
Mtl JP 13:40:28 GMT - 11/03/2023
DLRx 105.07-ish
-
puppy will need to re-gain 106.50+ to get minimum respect
closing under 106.50 and especially under yellow Sup line would get player dump-the-dog juices flowing
Mtl JP 13:31:05 GMT - 11/03/2023
09:45 - PMIs (final for Oct)
Mtl JP 13:25:27 GMT - 11/03/2023
raining yakkers
-
10:00 Barkin - on CNBC
10:00 ISM
12:45 Kashkari
15:30 Barr
15:30 Bostic
hk ab 12:50:18 GMT - 11/03/2023
clearly buy the rumour selling the fact.
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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