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GVI Forex john  12:07:56 GMT - 01/20/2010  
Canada CPI December 2009
Consumer prices rose 1.3% in the 12 months to December, following a 1.0% increase in November. December's increase was the largest since February 2009.

The rise in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was due primarily to gasoline prices, which exerted upward pressure on the CPI for the second consecutive month. This follows an extended period in which they were the main contributors to year-over-year declines in overall consumer prices.

In December, gasoline prices were 25.6% higher than they were in December 2008. This follows a 14.1% rise in November. December's increase was the largest since September 2008.

Overall, energy prices went up 5.9% in the 12 months to December, following a 1.3% increase in the 12 months to November.


GVI Forex john  14:06:07 GMT - 01/19/2010  
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010
OTTAWA β€” The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economic recovery is under way, supported by continued improvements in financial conditions and stronger domestic demand growth in many emerging-market economies. While the outlook for global growth through 2010 and 2011 is somewhat stronger than the Bank had projected in its October Monetary Policy Report, the recovery continues to depend on exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as extraordinary measures taken to support financial systems.
Economic growth in Canada resumed in the third quarter of 2009 and is expected to have picked up further in the fourth quarter. Total CPI inflation turned positive in the fourth quarter and the core rate of inflation has been slightly higher than expected in recent months. Nevertheless, considerable excess supply remains, and the Bank judges that the economy was operating about 3 ΒΌ per cent below its production capacity in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Canada's economic recovery is expected to evolve largely as anticipated in the October MPR, with the economy returning to full capacity and inflation to the 2 per cent target in the third quarter of 2011. The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and 3.5 per cent in 2011, after contracting by 2.5 per cent in 2009.

The factors shaping the recovery are largely unchanged - policy support, increased confidence, improving financial conditions, global growth, and higher terms of trade. At the same time, the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the low absolute level of U.S. demand continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in Canada. On balance, these factors have shifted the composition of aggregate demand towards growth in domestic demand and away from net exports. The private sector should become the sole driver of domestic demand growth in 2011.

Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. Consistent with this conditional commitment, the Bank will continue to conduct term Purchase and Resale Agreements based on existing terms and conditions and according to the accompanying schedule:

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/notices_fmd/2010/notice_fad190110.pdf

In its conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, the Bank retains considerable flexibility, consistent with the framework outlined in the April 2009 MPR.

The risks to the outlook for inflation continue to be those outlined in the October MPR. On the upside, the main risks are stronger-than-projected global and domestic demand. On the downside, the main risks are a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength of the Canadian dollar that could act as a significant further drag on growth and put additional downward pressure on inflation. While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.

Information note:
A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 21 January 2010. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 2 March 2010.



GVI Forex john  12:07:01 GMT - 12/17/2009  
November 2009
Canadian Consumer prices rose 1.0% in the 12 months to November, following a 0.1% increase in October.

The rise in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was due primarily to gasoline prices. Prices at the pump are now exerting upward pressure on the CPI after an extended period in which they were the main contributors to year-over-year declines in overall consumer prices.

In November, gasoline prices were 14.1% higher than they were in November 2008. This follows a 13.1% decline between October 2008 and October 2009.

Overall, energy prices rose 1.3% between November 2008 and November 2009, following a 12.7% decline the month before.

Seasonally adjusted monthly CPI increases

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI went up 0.6% from October to November, after rising 0.4% from September to October. November's increase was due mainly to a 1.8% rise in the transportation index.

The seasonally adjusted monthly CPI has gone up in six of the past seven months.

12-month change: Seven of the eight major components in the CPI record increases

Except for shelter, all major components of the CPI recorded price increases in November. The three components exerting the greatest upward pressure on the CPI were transportation, household operations, furnishings and equipment, and food.

Transportation prices, which rose 1.9% in the 12 months to November, exerted the largest upward pressure on the CPI due primarily to higher gasoline prices. It was the first 12-month increase for this component since October 2008.

In addition to higher prices at the pump, consumers paid 7.8% more for passenger vehicle insurance premiums. However, prices for passenger vehicles were 6.0% lower than the same period last year.

The cost of household operations, furnishing and equipment rose 2.8% during the 12-month period to November. Upward pressure came from communications, child care and domestic services, furniture and household textiles, household appliances, and other household goods and services.

Food prices rose 1.7%, following a 2.3% increase in October. November's advance was the smallest since April 2008.

Prices for dairy products and eggs rose 2.1% while prices for fish, seafood and other marine products rose 5.4%. Prices for food purchased from restaurants went up 2.7%. On the other hand, prices fell for fresh fruit (-5.7%) and fresh vegetables (-5.9%).

Recreation, education and reading costs advanced 1.8% in the 12 months to November. Major contributors to the increase were tuition fees and reading material and other printed material. In contrast, prices for computer equipment and supplies and other electronic equipment items such as video, audio, and photographic equipment continued to fall.

Broad-based price advances occurred in the health and personal care component (+3.2%).

Shelter costs declined 1.7% between November 2008 and November 2009. This drop was mainly the result of price decreases in natural gas (-29.7%) and fuel oil and other fuels (-10.6%). Unlike gasoline, prices for natural gas and fuel oil and other fuels were still exerting downward pressure on the CPI in November.

Downward movements from homeowners' replacement cost (-2.1%) and mortgage interest cost were also recorded.

The mortgage interest cost index, which measures the change in the interest portion of payments on outstanding mortgage debt, fell 4.0% in November, following a 3.1% decrease in October.

On the other hand, homeowners' maintenance and repairs costs and property taxes both increased by 4.3% in November.

Provinces: Consumer prices up in all provinces

Consumer prices rose in all provinces in the 12 months to November. The largest increases occurred in New Brunswick (+2.2%), Prince Edward Island (+1.9%), Nova Scotia (+1.7%), and Quebec (+1.7%).

Consumers in all Atlantic provinces saw price increases between November 2008 and November 2009. Increases in the all-items CPI in these provinces were mostly due to higher gasoline prices and less downward pressure from fuel oil and other fuels.

Price increases in Quebec were driven by higher prices for gasoline and food purchased from restaurants.

In Ontario, prices rose 1.0%. This growth was primarily due to the rise in gasoline prices (+17.5%) and passenger vehicle insurance premiums (+11.6%). Price decreases for natural gas eased the upward pressure.

Prices in British Columbia rose 0.1%. This was the first 12-month increase in the province since May 2009.

12-month change in the Bank of Canada's core index

The Bank of Canada's core index advanced 1.5% over the 12 months to November, following a 1.8% rise in October.

The seasonally adjusted monthly core index increased 0.2% from October to November, following a 0.3% increase in October.

For a more detailed analysis, consult the publication The Consumer Price Index.


GVI Forex john  14:14:36 GMT - 12/08/2009  
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

While significant fragilities remain, global economic developments have been slightly more positive and the global outlook has improved modestly relative to the Bank's projection in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
In Canada, as expected, the composition of aggregate demand is shifting towards final domestic demand and away from net exports. In the third quarter, the balance of these shifts resulted in weaker-than-projected GDP growth. Core inflation in recent months has been slightly higher than the Bank had projected, although total CPI inflation remains close to projections.

The main drivers and the profile of the projected recovery in Canada remain consistent with the Bank's views in the October MPR. The Bank continues to expect economic growth to become more solidly entrenched over the projection period and inflation to return to the 2 per cent target in the second half of 2011.

Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. In its conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, the Bank retains considerable flexibility, consistent with the framework outlined in the April MPR.
The risks to the outlook for inflation continue to be those outlined in the October MPR. On the upside, the main risks are stronger-than-projected global and domestic demand. On the downside, the main risks are a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar that could act as a significant further drag on growth and put additional downward pressure on inflation. The Bank views all of these risks through the prism of achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.

While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.
Information note:

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 19 January 2010. A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 21 January 2010.


GVI Forex john  12:05:00 GMT - 12/04/2009  
November 2009
Employment rose by 79,000 in November, bringing the unemployment rate down 0.1 percentage points to 8.5%. Despite November's gain, employment was 321,000 (-1.9%) below the peak of October 2008.

Full-time employment increased by 39,000 in November, the third consecutive monthly increase. Part-time employment also rose in November (+40,000), following two months of declines.

November saw an increase in the number of private (+57,000) and public (+54,000) sector employees, while the number of self-employed workers declined (-32,000). In recent months, the number of employees in the public sector, as well as the number of self-employed, has trended up, while in the private sector, the trend has been relatively flat.

Most of the gain in overall employment in November was among women aged 25 to 54 (+51,000) and men aged 55 and over (+17,000).

Almost all the employment growth in November was attributable to the service sector (+73,000), especially educational services. With November's increase, employment in the service sector is back at its October 2008 level, while employment in the goods sector remained well below (-324,000) where it was at that time.

In November, employment growth was widespread across most provinces with the largest gains in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta.

Compared with a year ago, average hourly wages in November were up 2.3%, the lowest year-over-year growth since March 2007.


GVI Forex john  16:15:55 GMT - 10/22/2009  
Thursday, October 22, 2009 10:30:16 AM
(CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Monetary Policy Report: Inflation risk remain skewed slightly downward; Expect financial conditions to continue to improve
- Expects annual growth in Q3 at 2%, in Q4 at 3.3%; See capacity reaching full capacity by Q3 2011
- Q4 2009 core inflation reiterated at 1.4%
- 2010 and 2011 growth outlooks are revised downward
- Reiterates expectation to keep rates at 0.25% through June 2010
- Expects business investments to continue recovering into beginning of 2010; global markets continue to improve
- May have seen end to deterioration of labor markets
- CAD could act as a significant further drag on recovery and growth; CAD strength seen coming more from weakness in USD than effects from Canadian side (TTN)

For those who do not have access to Trade the News (TTN) and its 24 hour live squawk box + news feed, you should consider it. Contact me for details.


GVI Forex Jay  13:21:22 GMT - 10/21/2009  
 
Check out the daily chart and 1.0580 (as posted yesterday on GVI Forex as well)


GVI Forex john  14:37:01 GMT - 10/20/2009  
Check out New in depth CAD trading thread. See in the initial post the CAD vs. 2yr note spread link. It has been working.


GVI Forex john  13:03:28 GMT - 10/20/2009  
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Recent indicators point to the start of a global recovery from a deep, synchronous recession. Global economic and financial developments have been somewhat more favourable than expected at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although significant fragilities remain.

A recovery in economic activity is also under way in Canada. This resumption of growth is supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus, increased household wealth, improving financial conditions, higher commodity prices, and stronger business and consumer confidence. However, heightened volatility and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar are working to slow growth and subdue inflation pressures. The current strength in the dollar is expected, over time, to more than fully offset the favourable developments since July.

Given all of these factors, the Bank now projects that, relative to the July MPR, the composition of aggregate demand will shift further towards final domestic demand and away from net exports. Growth is expected to be slightly higher in the second half of this year than previously projected but to average slightly lower over the balance of the projection period. The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2010 and 3.3 per cent in 2011, after contracting by 2.4 per cent this year. This is a somewhat more modest recovery in Canada than the average of previous economic cycles.

The Bank now expects that the output gap will be closed in the third quarter of 2011, one quarter later than it had projected in July. Correspondingly, inflation is also expected to return to the 2 per cent target in the third quarter of 2011, one quarter later than in July's projection.

While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.

Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. Consistent with this conditional commitment, the Bank will continue to conduct longer-term Purchase and Resale Agreements based on existing terms and conditions and according to the accompanying schedule: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/notices_fmd/2009/notice_fad201009.pdf.

In its conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, the Bank retains considerable flexibility, consistent with the framework outlined in the April MPR.

Information note:

A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on Thursday, 22 October. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 8 December 2009.


GVI Forex john  12:50:15 GMT - 10/20/2009  
CAD trading thread. Discussions; Fundamental, Technical, News Central Bank Policy, etc. about trading ideas.



Analysis-
Canada Profile: BOC Policy, Interest Rate Charts, Key Indicators and more...
USDCAD Daily chart
USDCAD vs. 2-yr note spread






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Mon 27 May 2019
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