My only question this morning is why didn't the market trade to current levels yesterday as everything was setup for a move back to eur/usd 1.40 (initial target achieved) and a firmer eur/jpy. I don't get the timing but at least the market acted logically, both from a fiundamental and technical viewpoint. Re the latter,1 hour chart is still acting as a guide (see above).
Key for today is 1.40 and whether it becomes support. resistance, or pivoted as is currently happening. As pointed out, 1.4025 = 38.2% retrace, 1.40655 = 61.8%. (intra-day high 1.4026)
On the downside, local support is from yesterday's 1.3974 low. Intra-day charts show some support between 1.3970-90.
What has changed from January is that eur/usd downticks are not setting new lows nor setting off stops. More likely to find some stops on the upside but still sense this is a reluctant move (correction).
ADP and ISM PMI today.
GVI Forex Jay 11:51:30 GMT - 02/02/2010
This is a follow-up to the post yesterday on the 1 hour eur/usd chart, which has seen the trendline broken today.
EUR/USD is getting some cross support from various pairs and this has seen the 1 hour trendline, which has been guiding the bias for nearly 3 weeks, finally pierced, marginally so far (see chart). The high has been 1.3956 and it would have to get through 1.3980 to put 1.40 in play again. 1.3984 = 38.2% of 1.4197-1.3853. Using daily pivots, Res 1 = 1.3956, Res 2 = 1.3986br />
Hard to suggest follow through in this environment but the break of the trendline, if confirmed, would at least suggest a change but 1.40+ would be needed to confirm a greater retracement risk.
No data today except US pending home sales.
GVI Forex Jay 12:53:02 GMT - 02/01/2010
EUR/USD 1 hour chart has been a good guide to the downtrend, now nearly 3 weeks on this time frame. Note the trendline (currently 1.3990) is coming closer into range. Daily pivot point is 1.3906.
There has been a large put seller by a major player at lower strikes (as posted on GVI Forex). If you want details, send me an EMAIL
GVI Forex Jay 14:13:46 GMT - 01/30/2010
EUR/USD daily pivot point, which held dead on as resistance Friday, comes in at 1.3906 on Monday, Click for chart points
GVI Forex Jay 13:56:15 GMT - 01/30/2010
This is why we suggest discussion rather than just being a viewer as no one person has all the answers. See this post on GVI, which strengthens the case for EUR/USD 1.38 being a key level.
GOT PK 12:21 GMT January 30, 2010
1.38 is the 50% of 1.2456 - 1.5140.
GVI Forex Jay 13:09:30 GMT - 01/30/2010
The weekly EUR/USD chart is also revealing but key support levels are not until below 1.30. In this regard, the 1.2331 low is key as a break would be needed to coinfirm a lower top and a long term downtrend. Right now the market is searching for support within a broad 1.2331-1.5141 range. If you use retracements, 1.3736 = 50%, 1.3404 = 61,8%. EUR/USD 1.38 is going to be a pivotal big figure so have to watch price action if approached. Next support is at 1.3833. Note prior update for the daily chart.
Feel free to comment and continue a discussion.
GVI Forex Jay 10:20:57 GMT - 01/30/2010
The EUR/USD daily chart is very revealing. Key area is a cluster of key levels between 1.3735-50, which includes
1.3749 = key June 16, 2009 low
1.3737-38 = March 19-21 double top and former breakout level on the upside
1.3736 = 50% of 1.2331=1.5141
Ahead of that cluster is 1.3833 (July 8, 2009 low) and 1.3800 (someone on the FF mentioned this as a Chine held barrier option - we will see).
Point is the 1.3735-50 is the target (i have been citing the 1.3749 level) following the firm break of 1.40 so approaching an area that has potential for support or at least a pause. Al mentioned in his video the 1.36 area as a possible area for a pause.
The above was posted yesterday on GVI Forex
GVI Forex Jay 14:09:53 GMT - 01/28/2010
As a follow-up to the chart I posted on Tuesday, continue to keep an eye on the one hour eur/usd chart as its downtrend on this time frame, which is now over two weeks, remains intact. Downtrendline is coming within range so needs to be watched, especially if market starts to consolidate around 1.40. Similar pattern can be seen on a 4 hour chart.
One change from yesterday is the deck has been cleared of stops until the 1.3934 low so no nearby stops to go after until that level.
Daily chart shows risk for 1.3833 and 1.3749 should 1.40 become resistance.
GVI Forex Jay 20:03:07 GMT - 01/26/2010
I have been using the one hour chart and as can be seen by the chart posted above, there is a downtrend that has been intact for nearly 2 weeks. Keep an eye on the 1 hour chart as the risk will be pointed down as long as the trendline stays intact. However, there is a time limit on this chart formation as the trendline will come into range if the 1.4028 low stays intact. The Tuesday low was 1.4043.
GVI Forex Jay 14:32:44 GMT - 01/21/2010
Different feel to the market since the eur/usd made its low (1.4028). See the 5 minute chart.
Intra-day (minor) resistance still at 1.4100, 1.4120, 1.4137.
(As posted on GVI Forex - chart updated)
GVI Forex Jay 11:27:28 GMT - 01/20/2010
As noted last night, 1.4190 and 1.4177 were next key supports, both broken. As the daily chart shows, a firm break would expose 1.4046 and 1.4007. On the upside, back above 1.4219, at a minimum, would be needed to slow the risk. Local resistance is 1.4190-1.4220.
GVI Forex Jay 10:27:38 GMT - 01/15/2010
The euro is the focus and getting hit both vs the dollar and on its crosses. So far the downside has paused around the 20 day mva (1.4381) wiht a low at 1.4378. Charts show little between 1.43-1.44 (the old "no man's land") except for the 20 day mva, 1.4357 (61.8% of 1.4219-1.4580) and 1.4304 (76.4%).
On the upside, pivotal resistance is not until yesterday's 1.4447 low with minor levels at 1.4420-25 ahead of it. Last week's close was 1.4411.
For those who want to be clued in, GVI Forex (our professionals forum open to traders of all levels of experience for viewing) was all over the Merkel rumor last night, that drove the euro lower. If you want more information on GVI Forex or a free trial, send me an EMAIL
GVI Forex Jay 10:46:50 GMT - 12/23/2009
Downtrend on 4 hour chart that started on Dec 3 is still intact. Trendline currently at 1.4312. One hour chart shows a similar trendline.
GVI Forex Jay 11:59:10 GMT - 12/17/2009
Just to be clear, it is still 200 pips above its 200 day mva.
Beijing helen 11:51:51 GMT - 12/17/2009
Thanks, Jay, now I see it standing on its 200 MA on daily chart, good time to long :)
GVI Forex Jay 11:04:56 GMT - 12/17/2009
These are days when I wish I was a pure technician (see the 4 hour chart posted above) although no complaints after Al got me back on the right path last night. However, price action appears driven by real flows with eur/jpy off sharply and usd/jpy back above 90 and holding steady after a brief blip above that level, and eur/chf extending its retreat below 1.51 (Eastern Europe concerns?). GBP/USD has kept pace with eur/gbp steadying after yesterday's plunge.
There is only minor support in the 1.43s (1.4329 and 1,4304) before a void until 1.4190, 1.4177 and 1.4163 (200 day mva).
On the upside, 1.4420 seems important intra-day, guards 1.4450-81.
As a reference, eur/usd closed 2008 at 1.3954 and 2009 at 1.4587.
As posted earlier on GVI Forex
This was also posted on GVI Forex last night:
GVI Forex Jay 02:41 GMT December 17, 2009
eur/usd 1.45: Reply
Trying to be objective as I was hoping for a mini squeeze to get some better levels until Al's reality check post.
If 1.4481-1.4500+ is not renewed, a case can be made for 1.4177 and the 200 day mva at 1.4163 (which JP has been calling for as a target) should 1.4448 be firmly taken out.
The 1.4448 level was close to tested and is my last remaining support.
GVI Forex Jay 12:28:44 GMT - 12/15/2009
Updated 1 hour EUR/USD chart (4 hour shows a similar pattern). Not much else needs to be said to show current risk. Daily charts show 1.4481 as next key support, exposed while below 1.4587-1.4627. Note talk of a 1.45-1.53 options with a yearend expiration.
GVI Forex Jay 19:43:17 GMT - 12/11/2009
Daily chart shows 1.4481 as the next key target while below 1.4627. On the upside, 1.4627 and 1.4670 are important resistance. The other focus is on the 100 day mva (1.4732), which is widely watched in this pair.
The market seemed setup for at least a test of 1.48 early on but a failure to reach 1.4782 (high 1.4777) capped the upside, setting up a 1.4670 breakout on the downside after US retail sales came out.
GVI Forex Jay 10:57:02 GMT - 12/11/2009
I am still using the 1 hour chart and price action off the bottom suggests the rumored reserve manager buying has provided a floor. On the upside, 1.4682 is a key level,. Wednesday's low and 23.6% of 1.5144-1.4670. Should it be taken out, 1.48 becomes the next obvious level followed by 1.4851, which is 38.2% of 1.5144-1.4670.
A firmer EUR/JPY (see previous update) has been a factor as the market wakes up to easing risk aversion pressures. Fridays are always a tough call, especially at this time of year due to thinning liquidity so will have to see if a reluctant eur/usd can finally claw its way back to 1.48, which at a minimum is needed to shift sentiment. Yesterday's high at 1.4760 would need to become support to suggest a run at 1.4782 and above.
GVI Forex Jay 18:30:21 GMT - 12/08/2009
FX winning the correlation war as stocks slide and align as risk aversion dominates today. I get the feeling that stocks would have liked to rally today but have been thwarted by the fx market. EUR/USD, as can be seen by the daily chart, shows little on the downside until the key Nov 3 low at 1.4627. Just below that is the 100 day mva, seen as a key indicator for this pair, at 1.4617, making this area a potential tough area of support if seen.
On the upside, expect the market to SOB (Sell on Blips) while below 1.4750. Above 1.4775 would be needed to put 1.48 in play again.
GVI Forex Jay 16:45:53 GMT - 12/02/2009
I posted a 1 hour eur/usd chart on GVI Forex earlier and just posted a follow up chart (see above), which worked out well today. Note the break of the trendline and price action that followed.
If you look at the yellow line, it is clear that the 200 hour mva is the key level and what needs to hold to maintain a bid.
GVI Forex Jay 18:54:06 GMT - 11/25/2009
EUR/USD 1.5285 was a breakdown level on the downside and as the daily chart shows, is a potential target on the upside. Immediate obstacles are 1.5100 (options barrier), 1.5165 (76.4% of 1.6040-1.2331), 1.5200 (psychological), none of which are strong techncial levels.
On the downside, needs to maintain 1.5063+ to keep these levels at risk. Local support zone is 1.5015-63.
GVI Forex Jay 11:31:43 GMT - 11/25/2009
I posted this on GVI Forex yesterday and it looks like case #2 is following case #1 but needs a solid break of 1.5063 to confirm. Note that eur/usd is a follower today (i.e. weaker euro crosses).
From GVI Forex:
GVI Forex Jay 16:36 GMT November 24, 2009
Look at this daily chart. The current consolidation (case #2) looks similar to what happened in August (case #1), which was eventually resolved to the upside. Hard to say whether history repeats but it does look similar???
GVI Forex Jay 12:52:59 GMT - 11/19/2009
I posted this on GVI Forex last night and view has not changed. See the daily chart to see how the trendline and 50 mva are coming into range. Sets up a Friday risk once the rumored DNT option is out of the way, assuming it is defended again today.
GVI Forex Jay 23:55 GMT November 18, 2009
It seems every forecast I have seen of late is either for a dollar rebound or asking what happens when the dollar turns and carry trades unwind.
Fortunately I don't have to live by forecasts and just have to find the right side to trade from. However, it does look like the major eur/usd uptrend is coming in for showdown time with the daily uptrendline dating back to the start of March rising above 1.48 (1.4805) on Friday. This suggests the time to decisively take out 1.50 is drawing near as the trendline and other indicators (e.g. 50 day mva) come farther into the current range.
GVI Forex Jay 15:58:02 GMT - 11/13/2009
As a followup, see the 4 hour chart posted here to show the price action after bouncing off the support I posted earlier. I hope some followed this but as it turned into a nice technical play.
What we would also like to see are some comments in these threads to build some more in depth discussions. This was ane xample where it would have worked out.
GVI Forex Jay 15:09:13 GMT - 11/13/2009
Bounced off the 1.4822 area (low was 1.4823).
Belgrade AS 15:06:49 GMT - 11/13/2009
yes Jay.by the time gbpusd reaches Oct-Novemb. trendline-some 50 pips lower(unless eurgbp turns around....which i would like the most ...being long for a whole week now...from this very place...pfffffff)eurusd is going to 50 mva(1,4760-aprox)
your "crosses" thing will work again....and again!
GVI Forex Jay 14:43:41 GMT - 11/13/2009
Note the earlier update about the 200 4 hour mva. Currently comes in 1.4822, which is also yesterday's low. Low today just now was 1.4827.
GVI Forex Jay 13:56:35 GMT - 11/13/2009
I noted the 200 4 hour mva yesterday as one to watch and it checked the downside overnight (although a bit belated pointing it out) . See chart as it is an indicator to keep an eye on going forwards.(as posted on GVI Forex)
GVI Forex Jay 12:28:46 GMT - 11/10/2009
One hour eur/usd chart posted. Note the horizontal lines, 1.5021 on top, 1.4950 and 1.4915-20 on the downside.
GVI Forex Jay 14:13:25 GMT - 11/09/2009
I posted the daily eur/usd chart last night on GVI Forex, pointing out a risk that the current setup showed a risk on the upside if history was to repeat. Note the move from 1.4481-1.5063, and then how the latest low at 1.4627 is setting up a similar formation (higher low/higher high?) aimed at taking out 1.5063. So far this risk is playing out but only confirmed if 1.5063 is taken out.
From GVI Forex:
GVI Forex Jay 01:30 GMT November 9, 2009
Look at the daily chart. Not sure if history will repeat as eur/usd looks like a reluctant follower. However, chart shows a risk it could be a repeat of the price action after the last significant low (1.4481) preceding the move to the last new high at 1.5063. For this to occur, 1.4915-20 would need to be broken and become support.
GVI Forex Jay 13:55:28 GMT - 11/06/2009
One hour chart shows 100 and 200 mva converging around 1.4795. This needs to hold to keep downside in check. See chart.
GVI Forex Jay 14:55:25 GMT - 11/04/2009
At this time yesterday you would not have made this bet but eur/usd just extended its pivot around 1.48 to 7 days in a row. Over the past 5 days, eur/usd has alternated between a close with a 1.47xx handle and a 1.48xx handle. If history repeats, then it will close today above 1.48. This is not my prediction, only pointing out a pattern. ( GVI Forex Jay 14:33 GMT November 4, 2009 )
GVI Forex Jay 23:57:52 GMT - 11/03/2009
The following are posts from GVI Forex and are worth reading for a perpsectiive on the current market and what might change the picture. I have included a daily eur/usd chart to illustrate. Posts below are in descending order, earliest post first:
GVI Forex Jay 21:55 GMT November 3, 2009
FIBOS for this week's 1.4845-1.4627 range:
1.4736 = 50% (just held)
1.4762 = 61.8%
Using 1.4759 as the top,
1.4743 = 50%
1.4770 = 61.8%
Any thought which range is most relevant?
Reply from a GVI forex member:
Jay, re Fibos - I prefer using 1.4845-1.4626 and have eyes on how well it holds the 1.4790 area from here (76.4%). Also keeping an eye on the move down from 1.5064 to 1.4626 and think its notable that the 38.2% there coincides with that 1.4790-95 area (required to cap around there to keep the lower high scenario intact as well).
As one of the problems for the bears, (think there are many), it not only held the 1.4615 area (76.4 of 1.4478-1.5064) and did not even test the daily trendline which I only see at 1.4590 or so today) - but most importantly, has failed a day close below 1.4701 which is 61.8% of the 1.4478-1.5064 range. Its tried that unsuccessfully 5 days in a row now.
Re trendlines, i'm always wary of using lines that start from interim points rather than at the start of a trend. Imo, they represent more interim supps than real ones and hence more susceptible to Jubbs....
GVI Forex Jay 11:24:33 GMT - 11/03/2009
So much for my view that the pre-FOMC decision period would be a sparring match. It is more like a knockout blow with eur/usd below the 50 day mva (1.4652). If established below it, 1.4481 comes on the radar. On the upside, back above 1.4680-85 would be needed to slow the risk. See daily chart. (Posted earler on GVI FOrex)
As also posted by a GVI Forex member:
to add; 76.4% of 1.4480 - 1.5064 = 1.4618.
GVI Forex Jay 18:36:02 GMT - 11/01/2009
USDX daily chart updated. Refer to the previous update to compare with the daily eur/usd chart.
GVI Forex Jay 18:34:25 GMT - 11/01/2009
Using a KISS (Keep it Simple) approach, a firm break of the trendline at 1.4745 (which would confirm what is seen on the USDX daily chart) and then 1.4680-85 would expose the 50 day mva (1.4652), a break of which would expose 1.4480. The significance of the 50 day mva (as SFX pointed on last week), is it has been supporting the eur/usd since the end of April.
On the upside, local resistance is from 1.4745 and 1.4780 with a local range above those levels to 1.4860. Daily pivot point 1.4761. (As posted on GVI Forex)
GVI Forex Jay 14:24:48 GMT - 10/30/2009
Follow up. Mva broken (low so far 1.4760), see if break holds. Note 1.4751 = 61.8% of 1.4684-1.4859
GVI Forex Jay 14:20:44 GMT - 10/30/2009
EUR/USD 200 4 hour mva (1.4774) being tested. See chart.
GVI Forex Jay 10:48:20 GMT - 10/30/2009
Check out the 200 4 hour mvs (see chart), which traded above since October 5, was broken to downside this week and may now be a resistance (currently 1.4870). There is a 2-day double top at 1.4859 ahead of it.
GVI Forex Jay 20:38:08 GMT - 10/29/2009
I posted this on GVI Forex earlier and I am adding a chart here to show the price action around the 100 mva. This is an indicator to keep an eye on as the week winds down. Note nhow it bounced off this mva.
From GVI Forex:
GVI Forex Jay 18:06 GMT October 29, 2009
High so far has been 1.4850, just shy of the 100 day mva (still sloped down), currently at 1.4857. 200 hour mva is still above 1.49. Would need to see the 100 hour mva regained to suggest more legs on the upside.
GVI Forex john 12:49:24 GMT - 10/29/2009
CHART: Weekly jobless lots of attention on fall in Continued Claims...
Click on chart for five-year history
GVI Forex Jay 10:44:53 GMT - 10/29/2009
RF, thanks for posting in this thread, it allows for a more in depth discussion. Using a KISS approach, a lot depends on whether you think market is more comfortable with a eur/usd within 1.45-1.48 or 1.47-1.49 short-term. You could extend this simplistic approach to 1.43-1.48 or 1.45-1.50?
Month end and next week's central bank meetings will be factors once we get past today's data.
GVI Forex Jay 09:14:22 GMT - 10/29/2009
I posted this earlier on GVI Forex with charts...I am not a fan of steep trendlines but little choice when in a steep move. See 4 hour chart, trendline being broken, 200 4 hour mva is at 1.4761 and perhaps more important. Today's pivot point is 1.4751. One hour chart (to follow) is between the two trendlines I posted last night.
I still maintain my target of 1.4550 for EURO/USD, (it may be only an initial one), maybe we can be lucky to see it appearing today, this afternoon(HK time)
HK [email protected] 07:11 GMT October 27, 2009
EURO can't recover by this time the last high.: Reply
EUR/USD: Find yourself the level maybe (1.4935 +- 15 pips) to short it down to>>>>>>>>>>to 1.4550.
That was my target for the time and I think the trade may be closed within the next 24H.
GVI Forex Jay 01:11:28 GMT - 10/29/2009
On daily charts, the major trendline has been broken at 1.4715 and as we discussed, have to see whether it closes below it. So far, seems to be some bids below 1.47 following the low at 1.4684.
Below 1.4680 lies the key 50 day mva (1.4635) Significance of the 50 day mva, as SFX pointed out, is there has not been a close below it since late April. This makes 1.46-1.47 a potentially tough zone.
Local resistance at 1.4710 and 1.4730 ahead of 1.4745-55.
GVI Forex Jay 18:54:23 GMT - 10/28/2009
Check out this update. I pointed this out on GVI yesterday and it is amazing that it happened again today.
GVI Forex Jay 18:45 GMT October 28, 2009
it is amazing that eur/usd traded near its FIBO level on 3 successive days (1.4482-1.5063)
Check out the 4 hour chart (above) and the 200 period mva - it is the indicator that checked the downside at 1.4481 on Oct 2 and was nicked at the low today.
GVI Forex Jay 12:45:35 GMT - 10/27/2009
Note the post (see below) about the 100 4 hour mva containing the downside3. EUR/USD just bounced off it again. Needs to move above 1.4895-00 to ease risk.
GVI Forex Jay 11:37:53 GMT - 10/27/2009
What a difference a day makes in the world of FX. Note the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, 100 mva (currently 1.4857) has been containing the downside. Low yesterday at 1.4842 vs. 1.4841 = 38.2% of 1.4481-1.5063
GVI Forex Jay 17:34:09 GMT - 10/21/2009
Charts show little above 1.50 (see chart posted) until the daily channel top (1.5203) and 1.5285-1.5303 (former supports on collapse from 1.6040 last year). When in uncharted waters (i.e. little in the way of chart levels), I use big figures, such as 1.50 and 1.52 as key points. Current support is at 1.4995/1.5015-20. Resistance is a guess. Closest is the top of the channel just above 1.52. Expect talk of 1.60 as a risk while 1.50+ trades.
GVI Forex Jay 08:38:48 GMT - 09/22/2009
Daily chart posted. This is the real trend driving this pair.
GVI Forex Jay 08:36:35 GMT - 09/22/2009
So much for a range day scenario but it did perform technically. Note the break of the 1 hour down channel (see chart above) and how it became support. This negated the down channel and shifted the bias to bid on dips while above it. Also, note how the market held within 1.4700-20 following it and in 2 bars ran through the 1.4767 high like swiss cheese. The extent of the move on the upside was a surprise as logic suggested markets would consolidate ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision.
Rumors abound about a 1.48 barrier option due to expire tomorrow, which is an inviting target but have to see how hard it is defended.
See the post that follows for the daily chart
GVI Forex Jay 01:20:34 GMT - 09/22/2009
1.47 prints for 5th day in a row. 1 hour channel has been broken - currently at 1.4700. Watch to see if it becomes support. No change to view posted below.
Note layers of resistance ahead of 1.4767
GVI Forex John 23:41:42 GMT - 09/21/2009
fwiw the EUR/USD pivot point for Tuesday based on the Monday high-low-close is 1.4666, which is very close to the current spot of 1.4675. Personally i use the pivot point as a neutral level.
GVI Forex Jay 23:39:10 GMT - 09/21/2009
The following is the link to Al's Tuesday eur/usd setup video:
Daily Trading Videos to set up positions for the next day. Click on the Monday's link on the new video homepage for each video to view Tuesday's setup.
What caught my eye is the one hour channel Al drew in the video. See the chart I posted above. What is interesting in the chart is that it also shows resistance every 20 pips => 1.4700, 1.4720, 1.4740, 1.4760 ahead of the recent 1.4767 high. Note the 1.47 level has printed 4 days in a row so watch to see if this pattern is extended. 1.47 was also the high for the US session.
On the downside, the deck was cleaned out until 1.4610. Local supports are at 1.4670 and 1.4640, which flipped between support and resistance on Monday.
I guess what I am saying is similar to what Al said, which is between 1.4610-1.4767 there is not a lot to go after. Market will go with the risk of the down channel until/unless it is broken. I am looking for a choppy range session on Tuesday, at least as of this writing.
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Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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