bc,how do you think of Shanghai A share and 547 ShandongGold?
A share index fell sharply in these days
Melbourne Qindex 07:44:19 GMT - 05/16/2009
SellAUD/USD Entry: Target: Stop: AUD/USD: Critical Support 0.7436
The market shows an early sign of weakness when it closed below the daily cycle reference at 0.7565 ‚Äď 0.7601 ‚Äď 0.7779 on last Friday in the New York session. It is likely that the market will challenge the supporting range of 0.7436 ‚Äď 0.7457 on Monday and the odds are good that the market will shift lower to the next trading range of 0.7263 ‚Äď 0.7351.
AUD/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
Lahore FM 08:46:14 GMT - 03/23/2009
Shanghai BC,certainly the cb liquidity flooding is keeping jpy softer than i was expecting.thanx for the insight!
singapore rs 03:21:34 GMT - 03/23/2009
cheers bc, i second that! euro under 1.30 is a thing of the past, any dips from here should be bought with confidence, 1.34-1.35 could be enough to unwind some momentum short term before resumption of mid term direction which is clearly up
shanghai bc 03:14:57 GMT - 03/23/2009
DX medium-term upcycle or Eur/Usd medium-term downcycle since early January is highly likely to have ended last week..Eur/Usd 1.25-1.30 region was highly likely the floor for the whole year this year with upside target well above last december high of 1.47 in coming weeks..
With the help of massive inflationary policy by most cbs,Oil,Copper and Eur/Jpy are breaking to the upside as well..Stocks started decent bounce as well..Time to buy commodities including gold on dips on medium-term basis..With gold targeting Usd1180/Oz in coming weeks..
Usd/Jpy is likely to fluctuate with 0.95-105 region as its core range for most of the year..Anything outside this range may be short-term abberation for the year..
Lahore FM 02:24:58 GMT - 02/23/2009
Bc,thank you!i am currently short 999.will be on guard there!your view does make sense!
shanghai bc 02:19:31 GMT - 02/23/2009
Lahore FM 02:10 GMT February 23, 2009
This year is the Year of Golden Bull..Any correction of 20 dollars may still be a good buying opportunity targeting 1188 Usd/Oz in this medium-term up-leg..All the best..
Lahore FM 02:10:22 GMT - 02/23/2009
which way in gold you would say BC?
shanghai bc 02:06:00 GMT - 02/23/2009
We may enter Eur/Usd 1.30-1.35 range this week with a bias to enter Eur/Usd 1.35-1.40 range sometime next month..The big move may still be in gold against all currencies..
Amsterdam Purk 09:13:35 GMT - 01/21/2009
Munich peter 08:57 GMT January 21, 2009
Market Wisdom: Reply
BC, many thanks for your input. Always very much appreciated.
Can you imagine that you have that wisdom? Think and you have it...
Munich peter 08:57:15 GMT - 01/21/2009
BC, many thanks for your input. Always very much appreciated.
Belgrade Knez 04:12:25 GMT - 01/21/2009
Thank you for your view. Wish you all the best.
GL & GT
shanghai bc 23:27:26 GMT - 01/20/2009
Belgrade Knez 14:56 GMT January 20, 2009
Eur/Usd and DX tend to make yearly low or top in January..I am expecting Eur/Usd to make this year's low in 1.30-1.25 region..
Alas,Obama rally did not happen and we may see some more weekness in stocks and Eur/Usd as well..Forex market is still dancing to stock market..But I am expecting a good stock market rally plus Eur/usd rally starting in a few weeks lasting well into May..In Eur/usd terms,I see buying anything below 1.30 a good bet for this year targeting well above 1.50 at some point.. Only a medium-term directional view..All the best in the new year..
Munich peter 07:02:44 GMT - 01/14/2009
Sorry BC, the answer to my question lies more or less within your statement itself.
Munich peter 12:46:07 GMT - 01/06/2009
BC, very interesting input, thanks. But what are your considerations for this statement? Techs, flows, fx fundamentals?
Belgrade Knez 10:50:32 GMT - 01/06/2009
shanghai bc 01:10 GMT January 6, 2009
BC, thank you for your wisdom comments.
I wish you Happy New Year and all the best in 2009.
AZUSA 4x-ed 04:01:10 GMT - 01/06/2009
shanghai bc 01:10 @^@ 2009 will be a riddle for the EZ and the Euro. Everyone is free to speculate as to how the enormous refinancing schedule for the new issues market will play out in Europe, but my hunch is that ‚ÄėBig money‚Äô will only make such bets when we have resolution on this issue. So far, the only evident trend we have is that Europeans are far from instituting a meaningful economic recovery policy. As for the recovery (if and when that happens), the sequence should play as follows: US --> then Europe --> then Emerging Markets. Probabilities are high that respective currencies will follow a similar path (notwithstanding any meaningful interventions).
shanghai bc 01:10:15 GMT - 01/06/2009
Buying anything below Eur/Usd 1.30 may be a good value for the whole year in 2009..The first few weeks of the year are almost always weeks of humouring traders with wild moves..Most majors and yen croses have formed wide range of floors and may break out to the upside at some point..The thing is not to be wrong-footed when a big move starts..Gold,Aud,Cad,Eur and even Pound may be ready for the big upside surprise at some point in coming weeks..Big money is in big moves..
shanghai bc04:47:40 GMT - 12/20/2008
DX kept correcting toward 77 this week from 88 level only a few weeks ago..Eur/usd advanced toward 1.47, 200dma,only to be sold off from there..DX is likely to range for a few weeks consolidating in 84-80 range..In Eur/Usd terms,range of 1.33-1.45..
One change FX market had last week was the rise and fall of Yen along with Eur/Usd and other major cureencies breaking the several months cycle of Yen-crosses-lead FX market where Yen rose while Euro and commodity currencies fell..In other words,massive deleveraging or liquidation of assets for the last several months is largely over..That siganals stabilizing stock markets and commodity markets as well in coming weeks..Good for gold and crude oil in coming weeks although DX range market will affect these markets too..
Usd/Jpy rose and fell along with Eur/usd this week for the first time in many months..Eur/Jpy is still forming a large base for the possible next upmove at the moment..So Usd/Jpy is unlikely to make a wild downmove and more likely to move to 95 region in coming weeks..
shanghai bc05:32:04 GMT - 12/17/2008
It should be read "a correction to Eur/1.35-1.37 first".. Not a bounce to Eur/Usd 1.35-1.37 first..
shanghai bc05:24:03 GMT - 12/17/2008
DX80 was the decade old support which broke down last year and DX headed for 70..In this round of DX correction from 88, DX80 is vital too..Expecting DX 80-79 to privide some support for a bounce to DX83 as the next step..In Eur/Usd terms,a bounce to 1.35-1.37 region first before deciding next medium-term direction for DX..DX80-79 region may be Maginot line or Normandy beach again..
Mtl JP 12:04:23 GMT - 12/15/2008
thanks for the view bc.
It looks to me as IF China is not only heading for the deep end of economic cesspool but also threatening social peace and order judging from the massive and rapid moves by the Chinese officialdom.
A top banking official urged lenders to provide more loans to ensure a relatively fast economic growth, even though it could mean an increase in bad loans.
"Bad loans will certainly increase this year, posing a real challenge for banks," Liu Mingkang, chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at a conference over the weekend.
But "we encourage banks to offer a helping hand to enterprises with good fundamentals," Liu said, because "it would be costlier to let them go under".
Loans going bad (just a tool in macro socio-economic the bag) appear to be preferable to peasants knocking down the palace door.
shanghai bc23:39:08 GMT - 12/14/2008
Mtl JP 23:15 GMT December 14, 2008
Deflation in a sense that money supply decreased from 20% to 16% recently..China is likely to come out ok from this downturn..Rising unemployment can always cause a problem in any society but given China's world's highest savings rate at government and private levels,folks are well prepared for the downturn..Creating some jobs,be it roads or airports or railways or shopping malls construction jobs, to unemployed young folks may work for a few years pending upturn in cycle..This is just a part of the economic cycle and that is all..
Mtl JP 23:15:14 GMT - 12/14/2008
** Smell of Fear of Chinese Deflation **
Shanghai bc / December 10 ‚Äď Bloomberg - ‚ÄúChina‚Äôs exports fell for the first time in seven years‚Ä¶ Exports declined 2.2% in November from a year earlier‚Ä¶ Imports plunged 17.9%, pushing the trade surplus to a record $40.09 billion. China‚Äôs leaders pledged ‚Äėmore forceful measures‚Äô to help small companies and create jobs in statements within hours of the trade report.‚ÄĚ
December 11 ‚Äď Bloomberg - ‚ÄúDai Chen broods as train No. 1076 rumbles across south China‚Äôs Guangdong province, taking him back to the fields and trees of his rural home. He‚Äôd rather be on the noisy, cramped factory floor in Dongguan where he used to work. ‚ÄėThere‚Äôs nothing to do in the countryside except be a farmer,‚ÄĚ Dai, 21, says‚Ä¶ ‚ÄúI don‚Äôt want to be a farmer.‚Äô As many as 20 million migrants may leave coastal cities next year as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression shutters factories‚Ä¶ Until now migration has been a safety valve for China, with the population of rural areas dropping by 140 million since 1999. As workers return to the countryside, where wages are a third of those in the cities, there is growing concern among China‚Äôs leaders that rising tensions could undermine the Communist Party‚Ä¶‚ÄĚ
December 12 ‚Äď Bloomberg - ‚ÄúChina‚Äôs economic slowdown is deepening, with overcapacity in almost all industries, and won‚Äôt bottom out until after the first quarter of next year, two senior officials said today. ‚ÄėThe international financial crisis is having a severe domestic impact,‚Äô Li Yizhong, head of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said‚Ä¶ ‚ÄėWe don‚Äôt think we‚Äôve bottomed out yet, and the impact will broaden further in December.‚Äô‚ÄĚ
Does the aimed 17% increase in the Chinese money printing press speed mean that Chinese inflation is money-based and that China is experiencing deflation and a rapid contraction in credit (and / or demand for it) ? Maybe much more rapidly than most anyone think ? I smell a massive swing from credit exapnsion to credit contraction...
Do I correctly smell the fear of deflation ?
shanghai bc00:58:23 GMT - 12/14/2008
DX finally fell through 50dma this week..It is still riding DX correction cycle started in November..DX correction is likely to play out a few more weeks targeting 82-81 region at some point..In Eur/usd terms 1.35-1.37 region..Daily fluctuation is another issue..
Usd/Jpy fell further this week below 90 indicating DX weakness on all fronts both against European and Asian currencies..Korean Won rose 7.5% during the week too while Yuan stayed relatively stable..But Mof of Japan is highly unlikely to let Yen keep rising..They will do something about it to make sure it goes back to 95-100 region in coming weeks..And it does not have to be public intervention..
Continuing bad news of all types from US front fail to send US stocks to new lows..And the US stocks may further stabilize in coming weeks..And that stock stabilization may help DX correction..
Crude oil and Gold are likely to benefit while DX corrects too..
In a bit longer time frame,if it is about wealth preservation,investing in Gold for the next year may be a good choice..All cbs in G-20 countries are highly likely to resort to printing press to float the sinking economy and being coupled with no yield or low yield bonds in almost all countries,Gold may be forced to rise in coming years..It kept its value or purchasing power against Usd this year while making new highs against many major currencies and stocks..It may do much better for the next few years..
Belgrade Knez 19:14:08 GMT - 12/08/2008
shanghai bc 12:01 GMT December 7, 2008
bc, always appreciate your view.
Thank you for sharing it.
GL & GT
Despite the fact that the economic numbers coming out of Euroland were awful and ECB cut rate by 0.75%,the forex market could not take out Eur/usd 1.25 and Eur/Usd closed above 1.27 this week..For the last few weeks,there has been steady support above Eur/usd 1.25 too even when the leading US stocks were battered..If the bad numbers and figures cannot push Eur/usd further down the road,it is highly likely to be the result of some heavy buyers with deep pockets absorbing all the selling pressure..Eur/usd has been largely range bound for more than a month now indicating steady buying power..In other words,pending US stock stabilization,there is a good chance of Eur/Usd making a good bounce in coming week well above 1.35..
US stock market had to bear the selling pressure all week coming from recession confirmation and the worst unemployment figures for many years..Still the Dow stood the selling pressure and firmed instead..In otherwords,the US stock market may be ready for a good bouce pending some good news..US stock market bounce is highly likely to put pressure on DX forcing it to correct toward 500 dma first in coming weeks too..
On Usd/Jpy,once Crude oil price stabilize,it is highly likely to go back to 100 again in no time..This is a fast mover all the time given the modus operandi of the major Yen players..
Crude oil price was the only major one kept falling last week while the stocks and major currencies mainly ranged..So Crude oil price stabilization may hold the key to US stock bounce and DX correction in coming weeks..
shanghai bc23:30:15 GMT - 11/26/2008
DX correction this week on the back of US stock bounce with Citi rescue operation is likely to last for a few more weeks..DX is likely to test 50 dma support which is around 83 at present.In Eur/usd terms around 1.33-1.35 region in a week or two..How DX behaves around 50 dma will indicate the next move of DX..Again Dollar has been a slave of US stocks for several month during deleveraging process and the situation may last for some more weeks..US stocks and Yen crosses have to be watched first for the direction of DX..
DollarYen is likely to be range bound in coming weeks roughly in 95-105 range..Mof of Japan will try to " manage" Yen to make sure it closely follows Yuan which is range bound at present while Pboc will try to " manage " Yuan too..
Gold bounce is likely to follow DX move with possible bounce to 850-900 region in a week or two..Again DX fortune will decide gold moves at present..
Edingurgh WD LU 10:41:04 GMT - 11/12/2008
Hi shanghai bc, according to your post on 4/11/2008, you believed that aud, eur will bounce up significantly. Due to this week's weakness of these currencies, do you still believe that there is high possibility that aud and eur as well as gold will appreciate against usd significantly before the end of this year.Thanks.
Sichuan LK 18:53:59 GMT - 11/08/2008
Good morning sir. Do you expect to see a new high of Shanghai composite and DJI in 3 years? what about Euro, is it likely to make a new high in a year? Thanks a lot.
Beijing hoho 01:00:03 GMT - 11/05/2008
bc, thank you very much!
shanghai bc23:19:28 GMT - 11/04/2008
With Dow-Nikkei-Yen leading the forex world at present,I am expecting Usd correction for most of this month..Cad,Aud and Nzd may have a good potential to recover most of its losses suffered during October..Same for Euro bounce up to 1.35-1.40 and Pound up to 1.70-1.75..In Aud terms, 0.80-0.82 region is a good possibility..DX may correct well into 80 region too..
Shanghai bc23:44:14 GMT - 10/28/2008
As posted on GVI Forex:
shanghai bc 23:07 GMT October 28, 2008
DX was overbought to extreme level and correction was needed to revert back to the means..Expecting it to retrace back to 50 dma in a few weeks time..In Eur/Usd terms 1.35+,in Usd/Jpy terms 100+ and in Eur/Jpy terms 135+..Aud/Usd at 0.60 was a gift for China and Japan..Alas gifts do not fall from sky everyday..Then this rush to US bond lifeboat and DX rise since mid-July may not be over yet..
As posted on GVI Forex and now on the Shanghai bc Market Wisdom thread
shanghai bc 23:20 GMT October 25, 2008
China may agree to intervene in local stock markets only if it is a global joint intervention..I cannot see how they can lose money in ten years time given its reasonable valuation at present..Most banks shares PE is around 10..A thousand milion dollars in HK and another several thousand million in mainland Yuan in mainland may be enough to put the floor on stock market for the century..Pension funds are unlikely to lose money for doing that in coming years..More likely to make huge profits boosting government revenue in several years time..
On forex side,buying Euro and selling Yen is an attractive idea for China..And it is highly likely to co-operate on that..Good for long term diversification too..How to organize join-interventions may be the main issue..1998 Yen interventions took two weeks to organize with non-stop trans-pacific telephone meetings and airplane shuttle services..
Rapidly rising Dollar and Yen is not a gift for the world under the circumstances..So intervention is justified for cbs too..Then finance ministires are not made of traders and they are awful slow in everything they do..
Shanghai bc11:16:43 GMT - 10/24/2008
Belgrade Knez 10:54 GMT October 24, 2008 :
All started from panic driven Tokyo stock market..Margin calls have to be met and Yen repatriation and liquidation is the only solution those investors have..And the herd-instinct of those types of investors all moving in the same direction with tens of billions like snow avalanche..Forex market is dancing to the tune of stock markets at present..Unless we see very strong US stock performance tonight,we may have the repeat of today next week till money runs out or investors are thrown out of the market..Nothing like panic-driven market..Then,once this panic is over,the bounce will be almost as fast as its drop..Trading lightly or stay out of the market is not a bad strategy in market like this because we never know which bullet will catch us in a panic-driven market..Never dance with unpredictable partner..All the best..
GVI Forex Jay 12:36:44 GMT - 10/22/2008
As posted on GVI Forex:
shanghai bc 12:27 GMT October 22, 2008
Euro and Pound liquidation:
The main flow was from Japanese funds and banks repatriating what they can to shore up their stocks..Money from Australia i.e Aud/Jpy was used up a few weeks before..Now money from Europe i.e Eur/Usd and Gbp/Jpy being used up this week..Japanese contingent may have done their repatration by and large this week..Chinese are not interested in repatriations from Europe and that is a non-factor..So even if the Japnese want more repatriations later,they are highly likely to wait till Euro and Pound bounce a bit from the present levels..
Vienna Kerry 20:11:48 GMT - 10/10/2008
And forgive us our debtes,
as we forgive those who debts against us.
Vienna Kerry 13:27:28 GMT - 10/10/2008
The crisis places everything into the shade, which we saw so far. Also the today's certain courses of past crises, as for example for the wing over of Japan or the large depression of 1929, which differentiates the today's situation however dramatically from at that time, is the enormous speed carries, with which them seize area. The racing speed, with which the US bank system dissolves, is frightening. The helplessness, with which politics and economics react to it, still more. The cause is to be justified with a simple fact. Humans are not able to estimate exponential developments correctly. 3 per cent per year, 4 per cent per year, 7 per cent per year - each growth rate per certain length of time means expotentielles growth. With constant growth this means that a sum in a firm length of time doubles itself. Imagine bacteria. We say in minute of 1 are 8 bacteria there, after 2 minutes 16. 32 after 3 minutes, 64 after 4 minutes, 128 after 5 minutes, 256 after six minutes, 512 after 6 minutes, 1024 after 7 minutes and so on. Each doubling covers all past doublings in its sum. They know the time, in which a constant growth rate doubles itself, simply calculate, in which they divide the growth rate by 70. A growth rate of 7 per cent leads thus to a doubling in 10 years, a growth rate of 10 per cent has a doubling in 7 years to the consequence. It is something else, if one hears that a certain size doubled itself in one decade, compared with the information that she per year by 7 per cent grows. Can you estimate it, how many bacteria in ours tape after 28 minutes there are?
madrid12:33:48 GMT - 10/10/2008
Vienna Kerry 12:24:21 GMT - 10/10/2008
But thus do I counsel you, my friends: distrust all in whom the impulse to punish is powerful! They are people of bad race and lineage; out of their countenances peer the hangman and the sleuth-hound. Distrust all those who talk much of their justice! Verily, in their souls not only honey is lacking. And when they call themselves 'the good and just,' forget not, that for them to be Pharisees, nothing is lacking but- power!
Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900),
The following was posted by Shanghai on 10/10/2008 11:48:10
Re medium-term Usd/Jpy,Eur/Jpy and Gold:
For the remainder of the year,medium-term Usd/Jpy range is still likely to be 100-110 with everything outside this range being a short-term abberation ..In other words,anything outside this range is unlikely to last for more than a few weeks or a few month at most..
Eur/Usd's medium-term correction from 1.60 level coincides with medium-term correction of Eur/Jpy ..In other words,unwinding of Yen-Carry trades was the main force behind strength of Usd and weakness of Euro for the last three months..And world wide stocks were correcting at the same time too..Yen being a currecy of financing specs operations,their unwinding caused the moves..Currency market just dances to the tune of other major assets market most of the time..Unlike Usd/Jpy,I have no first hand experience in managing that currency..So my educated guess is that,Eur/Usd may correct as long as Yen-Carry trade unwinding goes on..Possibly till the end of this month and likely to find medium-term floor in Eur/Usd 1.30-1.35 region..So Eur/Jpy is a guide for trade for Eur/Usd and its cousins in the meantime ..Same goes for commodity currencies..Yen-crosses is the key in currency market and likely to remain so for the remainder of the year..
Gold is an ancient currency and deserves a few mention here too..It used to follow Usd or Euro in turns for sometime..This week it started following Eur/Jpy or Yen..Once it starts following Yen,it is usually the sign of East Asia in panic and that may send Gold above Usd980/Oz before the year end..
Shanghai bc 11:48:10 GMT - 10/10/2008
Shanghai bc is a long time and highly respected member of the Global-View community. We appreciate the opening of this thread so our members can keep a track of his medium term view
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