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GVI Forex john  19:24:49 GMT - 01/08/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Weekly Edition- Weak JPY Policy 

21:00 GMT- Jan 8 (global-view.com) Forex traders hit the round running in the new year. It seems like a month since the New Years break already. What makes things difficult has been uncertainty...

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GVI Forex john  17:49:33 GMT - 01/08/2010  
Data Highlights...

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

0:01

JA

Holiday

n/a

n/a

8:15

CH

Nov Ret Sls yy

n/a

3.10%

23:50

JA

Nov Cur Acct

n/a

42.70%

 

 

TUESDAY

 

 

9:30

UK

Nov Trade GBP bn

n/a

-7.11

13:30

CA

Nov Trade C$bn

0.6

0.43

13:30

US

Oct Trade bn

-34.8b

-32.9b

22:50

US

API Energy

n/a

n/a



GVI Forex john  13:41:39 GMT - 01/08/2010  
Disappointing data for markets...


Click on chart for six-year history



GVI Forex john  12:47:21 GMT - 01/08/2010  
U.S. data @ 13:30 GMT

Nonfarm Payroll Employment


Non-Farm Payroll Employment is a monthly estimate of the number of payroll jobs at all nonfarm business establishments and government agencies. Information is also provided on the average number of hours worked per week and average hourly and weekly earnings.

The rate of unemployment is released along with this report.

Impact: Growth of employment and hours worked provide important information about the current and likely future pace of overall economic growth. Trends in average hourly earnings provide information about supply and demand conditions in labor markets, which may provide signals about the overall level of resource utilization in the economy.



GVI Forex john  12:11:14 GMT - 01/08/2010  
 
Canada jobs (new chart includes unemployment rate on bottom)


GVI Forex john  11:55:28 GMT - 01/08/2010  
Canadian Data is for DECEMBER not November


GVI Forex john  11:52:22 GMT - 01/08/2010  
Countdown to Canadian Data @ 12:00 GMT

Employment Data / Unemployment Rate


Employment is a monthly estimate of the number of payroll jobs and government agencies. The rate of unemployment is released along with this report.

Impact: Growth of employment provides important information about the current and likely future pace of overall economic growth and future monetary policy. Most analysts prefer to watch the employment data rather than the unemployment rate, which is also impacted by changes to the labor force (denominator of the ratio).

Other statistics watched are the breakdown between full and part-time jobs and the labor participation rate.


GVI Forex john  10:56:25 GMT - 01/08/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Japan and Jobs

11:00 GMT- Jan 8 (global-view.com) Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama made a rather strange rebuke of new Finance Minister Kan. Hatoyama said that the government should not make public comments on exchange rates...

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GVI Forex john  21:07:30 GMT - 01/07/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Employment Data at Hand

21:00 GMT- Jan 7 (global-view.com) Markets have been setting up all week for December U.S. Employment data due Friday morning in NYC. Data released over the week have not had much impact on a market consensus..

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Juffair KaL  15:39:41 GMT - 01/07/2010  
euraud
still selling
Today
1.5673 1.5511
1.5653 1.5531
1.5632 1.5551

Next day
1.5599 1.5437
1.5579 1.5457
1.5558 1.5477


GVI Forex john  15:36:10 GMT - 01/07/2010  
Jan 7 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No major data are de from the Far East. In Europe, major highlights include: German trade and revised 3Q09 EZ GDP. In North America, Canadian and U.S. monthly employment data art top-tier releases. U.S. wholesale Inventories are an important piece of the puzzle as well.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

6:45

CH

Dec Unemploy

4.10%

4.10%

7:00

DE

Nov Trade EUR

12.4

12.9

10:00

EZ

3Qr GDP qq

0.40%

-0.20%

10:00

EZ

3Qr GDP yy

-4.10%

-4.80%

10:00

EZ

Nov Unemploy

9.90%

9.80%

11:00

DE

Nov Ind Output

1.00%

-1.80%

12:00

CA

Nov Employment

20.0K

79.0K

12:00

CA

Nov Rate

8.50%

8.50%

13:30

US

Dec Employment

-10K

-11K

13:30

US

Dec Rate

10.10%

10.20%

15:00

US

Oct Whsl Inv

-0.30%

0.30%

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

0:01

JA

Holiday

n/a

n/a



GVI Forex Futures  14:04:18 GMT - 01/07/2010  
EURO FX Futures total open interest up 1,616 to 152,682. Small change indicative of mixed market action yesterday?


GVI Forex john  13:52:32 GMT - 01/07/2010  
Jobless Claims very good in that some "give back" from the previous week might have expected. Latest initial claims were 434,000. Four weeks ago was 480,000. Watch the four week moving average as the weekly figures can be volatile. Click on the image to see longer history and to get an idea what a "normal" level of claims might be.


GVI Forex john  13:43:04 GMT - 01/07/2010  


Click on chart for seven-year history



Mtl JP  12:54:30 GMT - 01/07/2010  
john 12:38 / fwiw, a good friend reports about actual treasury payouts to states for unemployment insurance claims vs reported number of people on unemployment assistance as you might guess the numbers don't add up: normally it's like an almost perfect 0.9 R2 correlation but the discrepancy suggests 3-4mil more unemployed than officially recorded. the treasury publishes weekly cashflows in and out. piecing various data together - cash IS king - coz the treasury is paying out lots more than what official unemployment numbers would suggest. in fact, for the last week in Dec the unemploymentn payout was MORE than the cash payout for federal employee salaries.
-
maybe someone else can corraborate / debunk "liars figure and their figures lie"


GVI Forex john  12:38:20 GMT - 01/07/2010  
Countdown to U.S. data

Weekly jobless data


Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.



GVI Forex john  12:02:36 GMT - 01/07/2010  
BOE rates unchanged QE program unchanged. No surprises.


GVI Forex john  11:43:42 GMT - 01/07/2010  
No rate change is expected from the BOE. Focus is on any tidbits about future of Quantitative Ease (QE) policies.


GVI Forex john  11:40:24 GMT - 01/07/2010  
Countdown to U.K. Data @ 12:00 GMT

Central Bank Policy Decision


Often a major events for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.


GVI Forex john  10:55:37 GMT - 01/07/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Clearer Market Patterns Developing

11:00 GMT- Jan 7 (global-view.com) Some direction seems to be developing in the global financial markets along the lines of what we had suggested late last year and early this week.

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GVI Forex john  21:24:27 GMT - 01/06/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Politics Never Last as Market Drivers

21:00 GMT- Jan 6 (global-view.com) Politics rarely last as a trading influence. Early Wednesday saw concern about Greece with Stark of the ECB indicating that the central bank was not going to bail Greece out of its budget problems

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GVI Forex john  16:20:51 GMT - 01/06/2010  
Jan 6 (global-view.com) HIGHLIGHTS: Australian retail sales and visible trade data will be the economic highlights of Far East trade on Thursday. In Europe, Swiss CPI is always important with the SNB targeting inflation. The BOE policy decision is always closely followed. In North America, weekly jobless claims are not in the NFP payroll data Friday but provide additional insight into employment. ADP Jobs numbers and the ISM Service PMIs will be closely scrutinized. The Canadian Ivey PMI tends to be volatile.

 

 

TURSDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

Nov Retail Sales

0.30%

0.30%

0:30

AU

Nov Trade A$bln

-1.8

-2.379

8:15

CH

Dec CPI mm

0.10%

0.20%

8:15

CH

Dec CPI yy

0.50%

0.00%

10:00

EZ

Nov Retail Sls mm

0.10%

0.00%

10:00

EZ

Nov Retail Sls yy

-1.80%

-1.90%

11:00

DE

Nov Ind Ord mm

1.50%

-2.10%

12:00

UK

BOE Rates (0.50%)

unch

unch

13:30

US

Wk Initial Claims

447K

432K

13:30

US

WK Cont Claims

4.98

4.981

15:00

CA

Dec Ivey PMI

52

55.9

15:00

US

DOE Nat Gas bcf

-153

-150

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

6:45

CH

Dec Unemploy

4.10%

4.10%

7:00

DE

Nov Trade EUR

12.4

12.9

10:00

EZ

3Qr GDP qq

0.40%

-0.20%

10:00

EZ

3Qr GDP yy

-4.10%

-4.80%

10:00

EZ

Nov Unemploy

9.90%

9.80%

11:00

DE

Nov Ind Output

1.00%

-1.80%

12:00

CA

Nov Employment

20.0K

79.0K

12:00

CA

Nov Rate

8.50%

8.50%

13:30

US

Dec Employment

-10K

-11K

13:30

US

Dec Rate

10.10%

10.20%

15:00

US

Oct Whsl Inv

-0.30%

0.30%



GVI Forex john  15:24:55 GMT - 01/06/2010  
Countdown to U.S. Data @ 15:30 GMT

EIA- The Department of Energy (DOE survey)


EIA Survey comes out Wednesday morning. The DOE survey is more closely watched and generally seen as more accurate than the API data on Tuesday.


GVI Forex john  15:11:05 GMT - 01/06/2010  
 
U.S. Services PMI Chart. Improved but still just barely in positive territory. Employment improved but still contracting.


GVI Forex john  14:31:41 GMT - 01/06/2010  
Countdown to U.S. data @ 15:00 GMT

Purchasing Managers Index- Service


Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indies are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.


GVI Forex john  13:33:30 GMT - 01/06/2010  
ADP data in line with consensus -75K to -90K. Suggests no changes in consensus for Friday data (consensus unchanged in December). As a footnote, there is a lot of talk both ways on revisions to the November data.


GVI Forex john  13:26:15 GMT - 01/06/2010  
ADP series include revisions to previous data.

Click on chart for six-year history



GVI Forex john  13:09:40 GMT - 01/06/2010  
Countdown to data @13:15 GMT

ADP National Employment Report


The ADP National Private Employment Report is a measure of nonfarm private employment, based on aggregated and anonymous payroll data. The report attempts to provide additional timely and accurate estimates of short-term movements in the national labor markets ADP pays 1-in-6 private sector employees in the United States across a broad range of industries, firm sizes, and geographies.

The data (after revisions) tend to track the government data over time, although on any given month there can be significant discrepancies. The ADP report does not include government employees.


GVI Forex john  11:48:29 GMT - 01/06/2010  
 
UK Service PMI constructive...


GVI Forex john  11:47:54 GMT - 01/06/2010  
 
EZ Service PMI constructive...


GVI Forex john  10:48:19 GMT - 01/06/2010  

The Daily Forex View

6 January 2010

Sovereign Debt Worries

11:00 GMT- Jan 5 (global-view.com) Plenty of concern about sovereign debt risk today with Stark of the ECB indicating that the central bank is not going to bail Greece out of its budget problems. Iceland is having major international financial troubles as well...

MORE...



GVI Forex john  21:08:49 GMT - 01/05/2010  

The Daily Forex View

5 January 2010

Unexpected Carry Trade Unwind

21:00 GMT - TRADING SCENARIO- Forex trading will now start to focus on the monthly employment data due on Friday. This attention will start with the ADP private employment estimate for December due early Wednesday.

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GVI Forex john  16:30:54 GMT - 01/05/2010  
HIGHLIGHTS: No major data are set for release from the Far East on Wednesday. In Europe, the highlight will be the Service PMIs. In North America, ADP Jobs numbers and the ISM Service PMIs will be closely scrutinized. Weekly energy data can move prices. The latest Fed minutes are a highlight as well.

8:58

EZ

Dec SVC PMI

51.6

51.2

9:30

UK

Dec SVC PMI

56.6

56.6

10:00

EZ

Nov PPI mm

0.20%

0.20%

10:00

EZ

Nov PPI yy

-4.50%

-6.70%

10:00

EZ

Oct New Ind Ord mm

-1.10%

1.50%

10:00

EZ

Oct New Ind Ord yy

n/a

-16.50%

12:00

US

WK Mtg Stats

n/a

n/a

13:15

US

Dec ADP Jobs

-75K

-169K

15:00

US

Dec SVC PMI

50.3

48.7

15:30

US

DOE Crude Oil

unch

-1.5m

15:30

US

DOE Gasoline

400K

-300K

15:30

US

DOE Distillate

-1.9m

-2.0m

15:30

US

DOE Cap Util

80.70%

80.30%

19:00

US

Fed Minutes

n/a

n/a

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

Nov Retail Sales

0.30%

0.30%

0:30

AU

Nov Trade A$bln

-1.8

-2.379

8:15

CH

Dec CPI mm

0.10%

0.20%

8:15

CH

Dec CPI yy

0.50%

0.00%

10:00

EZ

Nov Retail Sls mm

0.10%

0.00%

10:00

EZ

Nov Retail Sls yy

-1.80%

-1.90%

11:00

DE

Nov Ind Ord mm

1.50%

-2.10%

12:00

UK

BOE Rates (0.50%)

unch

unch

13:30

US

Wk Initial Claims

n/a

432K

13:30

US

WK Cont Claims

5.175

4.981

15:00

CA

Dec Ivey PMI

n/a

55.9

15:30

US

DOE Nat Gas bcf

-153

-150



GVI Forex john  15:25:39 GMT - 01/05/2010  
 
Alarming number on concern new home buyer subsidy was about to end. It was subsequently renewed. Why doesn't Congress phase it out rather than just end it?


GVI Forex john  14:06:35 GMT - 01/05/2010  
Countdown to U.S. data @ 15:00 GMT

Pending Homes Sales


The Pending Homes sales index is produced by monthly by the NAR. Pending Home Sales become Existing-Home Sales one-to-two months later.

The index derived from Pending Home Sales is used to predict Existing Home Sales, which is the most important U.S. housing statistic.


Advance Durable Goods/Factory Orders

Durable good new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. The advance report is an early estimate of durable goods orders. Two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the Factory Orders report. Department of Commerce; BEA.

The report provides information on the strength of demand, from both domestic and foreign sources, for U.S. manufactured durable goods.




GVI Forex john  11:58:49 GMT - 01/05/2010  
Countdown to Canadian data @ 13:30 GMT

Producer Price Index (PPI)


The PPI is a price index designed to measure the level of wholesale prices in a given economy. Its another input into the policy making decisions of central banks.




GVI Forex john  10:51:02 GMT - 01/05/2010  

The Daily Forex View

5 January 2010

Mixed Messages; Focus on China and JPY

11:00 GMT - TRADING SCENARIO- So far the markets are not trading exactly the way we were expecting in the earliest stages of the new year. A key focus for the first two days has been on China as their economy has been growing fast and there are concerns about bubbles...

MORE...



GVI Forex john  20:52:06 GMT - 01/04/2010  

The Daily Forex View

4 January 2010

Payrolls Friday are the bottom line

21:00 GMT - TRADING SCENARIO- Dealers seemed to be feeling their way on Monday. The tone of the USD was expected to improve today, but as it fell most just stepped aside and let it go....

MORE...



GVI Forex john  15:57:22 GMT - 01/04/2010  
HIGHLIGHTS: No major data are set for release from the Far East on Tuesday. In Europe, the flash E-Z HICP is the primary inflation target of the ECB.

In North America, U.S. pending homes sales are a reliable predictor of existing homes. Factory Orders are due as well. Canadian PPI data are also due.


Upcoming Top Tier Releases:
Wednesday
EZ/UK- Service PMI
EZ- PPI, Industrial Orders
US- Mortgage Statistics, ADP Jobs, Service PMI

Thursday
AU- Retail Sales
CH- CPI
EZ- Retail Sales
DE- Industrial Orders
UK- BOE
US- Weekly jobless
CA- Ivey PMI
Friday
CH- Unemployment
DE- Trade
EZ- GDP, Unemployment
DE- Industrial Output
CA- Employment, Wholesale Inventories

10:00

EZ

Oct HICP (flash) yy

1.00%

0.50%

13:30

CA

Nov PPI mm

n/a

-0.30%

13:30

CA

Nov PPI yy

n/a

-6.30%

15:00

US

Nov Pnd-Home

-2.10%

3.70%

15:00

US

Nov Factory Ords

0.50%

0.60%



GVI Forex john  13:42:57 GMT - 01/04/2010  
Countdown to Data

Purchasing Managers Index – Manufacturing

Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indies are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

IMPACT: We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.

Construction Spending

The Construction Spending data is a monthly report that report on the amount of construction spending for home building, which is the major component of the report. In addition to residential spending, the data also tracks spending on government projects and office buildings.




GVI Forex john  12:30:41 GMT - 01/04/2010  
 
Earlier revised EZ mfg PMI (unchanged from "flash").


GVI Forex john  10:58:34 GMT - 01/04/2010  

The Daily Forex View

4 January 2010

11:00 GMT- TRADING SCENARIO- Because of the calendar. it seems all of the financial markets have all returned simultaneously to work this year. Traders will still likely be cautious initially following the extended holiday period.

MORE...






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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