K.I.S Euro/usd

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sofia kaprikorn  14:07:41 GMT - 01/10/2010
RF - I concur - you are definitely right both about this unconvinced price action after the NFP and the need for a clear Break..

HK [email protected]  02:15:18 GMT - 01/10/2010
sofia kaprikorn 22:49 GMT January 9, 2010

It is worth noting that the last upswing of Eur/Usd within the flag didn't even reach the upper flag trendline after the "good-bad" US data release.

For last Friday, seems as Euro bulls were not that convinced.

Some analysts even find some positives in the data, so fundamentals views are confused, then one has to wait for a convincing breakout of the flag pattern(up or down).

sofia kaprikorn  22:49:35 GMT - 01/09/2010
that Bearish Flag pattern sure points for another leg down of the same measure if it turns as a book example..

the only thing that bothers me is that as you say everybody else has this on he radar and that makes it hard to happen as expected..
...
I like to watch USD/CAD as indicator for USD direction and after all the twists and turns on Friday it ended at 1.03 with every hourly spike sold off.

you can see there the AB=CD pattern previous 7 days downmove - then spike to 1.05 and if the pattern holds we see 1.02 on Monday ..

I posted a DX COT chart showing weekly positioning is at extreme levels so while the medium term trend is turning bullish USD there might be a temporary reversal..

U.K J.B  11:19:20 GMT - 01/09/2010
I also agree. These were pretty aweful numbers on Friday so any significant sell off for the dollar in my view should be used to build long dollar positions not for a new leg up in the Euro. Great and relaxing week end patience is a virtue

HK [email protected]  05:12:00 GMT - 01/09/2010

I am sure many have already drawn an identical chart.

So one has a good reason to suspect that the USD has been weakened only temporarily.

Make the best use of it GL/GT

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