21:00 GMT- Jan 15 (global-view.com)
January can be the most difficult month of the year for forex traders. Most
years dealers overload on positions at the end of the previous year and then
have to dig themselves out of a hole for most of January. This year it did not
appear that dealers had overloaded positions
Industrial Production is an index designed to measure changes in the level of output in the industrial sector of the economy. The index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry (manufacturing, mining, and utilities). The data is produced by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
IMPACT: While the industrial sector of the economy represents only about 20 percent of GDP, because changes in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector changes in this index provide useful information on the current growth of GDP. The level of capacity utilization in the industrial sector provides information on the overall level of resource utilization in the economy which may in turn provide information on the likely future course of inflation.
GVI Forex john 13:44:01 GMT - 01/15/2010
Empire PMI was a lot stronger than expected...Jan Mfg Index 15.92 Vs 4.50 In Dec.
GVI Forex john 13:42:37 GMT - 01/15/2010
CHART: U.S. CPI in line with expectations.
GVI Forex john 12:19:35 GMT - 01/15/2010
Data Call @13:30 GMT
Consumer Price Index
The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as ‚Äúcore‚ÄĚ inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.
Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.
Purchasing Managers Index ‚Äď Empire State PMI
Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indies are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.
A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.
We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.
GVI Forex john 11:39:28 GMT - 01/15/2010
CHART EZ- CPI (HICP) Expect headline CPI to rise in coming months due to base effects from a year ago
GVI Forex john 11:23:51 GMT - 01/15/2010
Our Chart Points Table contains a lot of useful information. Our focus recently has been on the pivot points in the EURUSD. I use the pivot point as a sort of center of gravity as I start every day. So the EURUSD daily pivot is 1.4499 and now we are trading at 1.4382. This has been a major move. I then I scan the support (resistance) points. Today, local support is 1.4391 and then 1.4336. These might be most useful as potential take profit or stop levels. They also may be best used in conjunction with other numbers such as chart points, moving averages, etc.
GVI Forex john 11:10:38 GMT - 01/15/2010
The weekly Commitment of Traders report is released on the Friday close. The data is as of Tuesday, so it can be pretty old, but it gives a breakdown of positions by different classes of traders.
GVI Forex john 11:06:39 GMT - 01/15/2010
Total open interest in the Euro FX futures contract INCREASED by 4646 on Thursday. It is not immediately obvious to me what traders were doing. My guess is that many might have been putting on longs on the strength of the EURUSD early in the day, but that is not obvious to me. Any other observations are welcomed. Total open interest now is 163,878.
Open interest is a useful statistic to follow as it can give you an idea of the relative exposure of the market to a future price move. Our best guess is that coming into today the market was long EURUSD. Keep in mind that this is just our best guess.
GMT- Jan 15(global-view.com) This
has turned out to be a market without convictions. Those traders who are
surviving have got to be quick on their feet to adjust to the winds of
change that have been blowing in every few days. Keep a sharp eye on the
my broker(gee eff tee)did that a few weeks back based on this forthcoming.legislation
GVI Forex01:43:15 GMT - 01/15/2010
This is very serious and a proposal that could make life difficult for retail forex trading. Please read and then send in youi comments to the CFTC.
GVI Forex john 19:33 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex john 21:11:08 GMT - 01/14/2010
The Daily Forex View
Looking for Direction
GMT- Jan 14(global-view.com) Trading
in the key EURUSD pair centered around the newly-neutral 1.4500 level on
Thursday. The trading range was pretty much equally distributed around that
price. No market-moving information was forthcoming from the European
Central Bank policy decision.
If the CFTC goes through with this proposal we will be trading in the futures markets in 60 days Read this
GVI Forex john 16:20:50 GMT - 01/14/2010
Note we cited earlier that our daily Chart Points table pivot point based support came in at 1.4447. today. I show that level as the low of the day. Next support 1.4389.
GVI Forex john 16:09:32 GMT - 01/14/2010
Jan 14 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: A key early data highlight Friday will be EZ inflation data for December. The ECB targets the CPI (HICP). In North America, various top-tier data will be released. They include: the Empire State PMI, CPI, Industrial Production/ Capacity Utilization and the University of Michigan Sentiment survey.
Weekly estimates of working gas volumes in underground natural gas storage facilities from the Energy Information Administration, US Dept. of Energy.
GVI Forex john 14:54:44 GMT - 01/14/2010
Data Call @ 15:00 GMT
Inventory statistics from the various stages of the manufacturing process are included in the Wholesale Trade Report. When inventories increase production demand is thought to decrease and vice versa. Inventory swings often affect the GDP calculation.
IMPACT: This statistic is usually more closely followed by economists than by traders.
GVI Forex john 13:41:03 GMT - 01/14/2010
Weekly Jobless in line with recent trends. Note seasonal adjustments this time of year are a shot in the dark.
Click on chart for seven-year history
GVI Forex john 13:09:52 GMT - 01/14/2010
Data Call @13:30 GMT
Weekly jobless data
Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.
Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.
Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.
Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.
Retail Sales are usually a broad measure of the retail sale of consumer durable and non-durables. It is used by analysts to gauge the strength of consumer consumption.
IMPACT: In most economies, the consumer sector is the largest sector of the economy. Central banks watch retail sales to measure the strength of the economy.
Pivot point based on Wednesday's range in EURUSD is 1.4515 today, Below that line look for enthusiasm for new EURUSD longs to be minimal. There already have been many chances to buy. First pivot point based support 1.4447.
GVI Forex Futures 12:55:38 GMT - 01/14/2010
No surprise, total open interest up only 1107 contracts yesterday in the euro fx contract on the IMM. Suggests indecisiveness to me. Those taking a long position are going to need a further advance to support that sentiment.
GVI Forex john 12:46:51 GMT - 01/14/2010
ECB keeps rates steady as expected.
GVI Forex john 12:45:03 GMT - 01/14/2010
CHART: Australia jobs. Rate hike in February likely.
GVI Forex john 11:01:23 GMT - 01/14/2010
The Daily Forex View
for Mr. T.
GMT- Jan 12(global-view.com) Dealers
will be waiting for key information early in the session today with the
European Central Bank policy decision due just before the NY open. Some are
saying that the central bank could be saved from itself by the situation in
GMT- Jan 13(global-view.com)
One of the most difficult thing about forex trading can be judging
the markets are going to react to news. Wednesday was one of those sessions.
Early in the day thee was a run higher in the EURUSD for reasons we never
Jan 13 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: In the Far East, Japan will see several closely followed releases. Australian employment data will be a major release. In Europe, the ECB decision is always a major event. In North America, top-tier data will be retail sales and weekly jobless claims. The $13.0 bln 30-yr bond auction will be a closely watched event.
Total EURO FX futures Open Interest increased 7,629 on Tuesday. We assume traders were accumulating more longs. Its hard to imagine anything else based on the moving averages.
1.4500 is a pretty obvious psychological pivot point. The "official" calculated pivot point today was 1.4496 based on yesterday's range. We were trading around that level early in N.Y., but the upward momentum has driven us a lot higher.
GVI Forex john 11:40:36 GMT - 01/13/2010
U.S. Data @ 12:00 GMT
Weekly Mortgage Statistics
Weekly Mortgage Statistics are released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Total mortgage applications are the headline figure. They are then broken down into (1) new mortgage applications and (2) refinance applications. Both items by themselves are more revealing than the total number. The latest 30-year mortgage interest rate is released as well.
IMPACT: These data provide an early read on the state of the housing market.
GVI Forex john 10:53:15 GMT - 01/13/2010
The Daily Forex View
Performance Has Been Disappointing
GMT- Jan 13(global-view.com)
Based on the shorter-term moving averages, the USD remains heavy. Data due
for release from the U.S. this morning are not likely to be decisive for
trading, but the
the Fed Beige Book this afternoon could certainly be influential...
GMT- Jan 12(global-view.com)
Heading into the mid-week period, the USD is looking decidedly heavy. It
appears that EURUSD bottomed late last week on the back of the poorer than
forecast employment data.
Markets are highly sensitive to the results of periodic U.S. debt auctions. This is because of the sheer magnitude of the paper that is continuously being offered to the marketplace. Any stumble could reverberate through the marketplace
GVI Forex john 16:05:05 GMT - 01/12/2010
Jan 12 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No Major data are due from the Far East Wednesday. Major European data are: U.K. Industrial/Manufacturing output are always closely watched. In North America, Key U.S. data are weekly mortgage statistics, weekly energy data and a 10-yr note auction.
EURUSD still looking good. Well above all its relevant short-term moving averages many momentum players just leap on and then hold with a stop. The upside in EURUSD could use a psychological boost from the fundamentals. Sooner or later one will come along.
GVI Forex john 15:04:04 GMT - 01/12/2010
Highlighting some of our content which some may have missed...
Several moving averages in play or about to be...
We noted that total open interest in the EURO FX futures FELL by 9112 on Monday. Clearly shorts got stopped out. We wonder how much short covering also was masked by NEW Euro longs.
GVI Forex john 13:41:41 GMT - 01/12/2010
November U.S. Trade Gap -$36.40B; Consensus -$34.7B
GVI Forex john 13:00:06 GMT - 01/12/2010
Countdown to Data - U.S. and Canada
Broad Definition: Merchandise trade is trade in goods only, not services, and excludes capital transfers and foreign investments. Exports are total exports; they include both domestically-produced goods and re-exports, which constitute imports of goods which are warehoused here, then re-exported. Imports are general imports, which measure total arrivals of goods. The. Balance of trade is defined as total exports minus general imports.
IMPACT: Trade figures used to be viewed as the most important statistic for the forex market. It goes to proper valuation of the exchange rate, but can also reflect relative demand for goods. A trade deficit is a net deduction from GDP, while a surplus is an addition.
GVI Forex john 10:54:09 GMT - 01/12/2010
The Daily Forex View
bears Look for Reinforcing News¬†
GMT- Jan 12¬†(global-view.com)
There is not much new to go on early Tuesday, so the technicals are in
control. We notice also on our overlay charts that the S&P futures vs.
EURUSD correlation is working
GMT- Jan 11(global-view.com)
The USD is closing the first day of the new week softer. Buying of European
currencies against the USD were clearly momentum trades with EURUSD spot
trading decisively through critical moving...
Jan 11 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Japan sees Current Account data early Tuesday. The European highlight will be U.K. trade figures, and then from North America, U.S. and Canadian trade figures will be released. A three-year U.S. treasury auction is due as well. Late in the day, the weekly API energy inventory data are due.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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