NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Currency speculators went long against the U.S. dollar in the latest week, according to
Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.
The value of the dollar's net long position was $3.11
billion in the week ending Jan. 26, reversing a net short
position of $3.12 billion the previous week, according to
The last time speculators were long on the dollar was the
week ending January 5.
The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar
position is derived from the net positions of International
Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound,
Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars.
GVI Forex john 19:50:31 GMT - 01/29/2010
The Daily Forex View
GMT- Jan 29 (global-view.com) Forex market have become
incredibly complex for many traders not keeping abreast of the fundamentals. The
fundamentals are not simply economic statistics. They also encompass capital
flows, psychology and political factors.Economic
trends tend to change very slowly so they really are more a background factor
than something in the foreground.
Jan 29 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Monday features manufacturing PMI data from most major economies in the U.S. and Europe. In North America, U.S., Personal Income data and construction data are due as well.
The University of Michigan Survey is a consumer confidence index published (and revised) over each month. The index is normalized to 100 (December 1964). At least 500 telephone interviews are conducted each month. 50 core questions are asked.
GVI Forex john 14:31:29 GMT - 01/29/2010
Data Call @ 14:45 GMT
Regional PMI - Empire State
Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indies are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.
A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.
We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.
GVI Forex john 13:53:02 GMT - 01/29/2010
Advance GDP estimate +5.7% pa in 4Q09.
GVI Forex futures 13:12:46 GMT - 01/29/2010
EURO FX futures open interest increased 2,684 contracts Thursday to 185,485. We assume that traders were adding to their shorts again. Notable this week has been the relatively small adds to positions given the decisiveness of the technical signals recently.
The Friday close sees the release of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report which lays out trader positions in detail as of the Tuesday close. We expect short interest by speculative traders to have increased. Focus is by how much.
GVI Forex john 12:57:33 GMT - 01/29/2010
Data Call @ 13:30 GMT
Canada & U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The total value of goods and services produced within the borders of a country, regardless of who owns the assets or the nationality of the labor used in producing that output. The growth of output is usually measured in real terms, meaning increases in output due to inflation have been removed.
Importance: One goal (often unstated) of central banks is sustained growth of the economy with full employment and stable prices. Real GDP is the most comprehensive measure of the performance of an economy. By monitoring trends in the overall growth rate as well as the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation, policy makers are able to assess whether the current stance of monetary policy is consistent with its policy goals.
Canada Producer Price Index (PPI)
The PPI is a price index designed to measure the level of wholesale prices in a given economy. Its another input into the policy making decisions of central banks.
GVI Forex john 11:03:09 GMT - 01/29/2010
The Daily Forex View
GMT- Jan 29 (global-view.com) The focus heading into the
weekend appears to be the Greek debt crisis. Pressure within the EU is on the
Greek government to solve its own budget crisis, but there is no way that
Eurozone will not bail it out in the end if absolutely required
GMT- Jan 28 (global-view.com) Forex markets are currently
subject to strong cross-currents. Greek fiscal problems and what they imply
for other weak Eurozone economies have been a persistent weight on the EUR in
recent sessions. A story appeared in Le Monde today
Jan 28 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Early Friday in the Far East will see the usual slew of Japanese data (see calendar). In Europe, EZ money supply and lending data, which are closely followed will be released. EZ flash HICP data are due as well. In North America, Canadian PPI and GDP are slated. In. the U.S., major highlights will be the 4Q09 GDP estimate, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan Survey.
Data Call @ 13:30 GMT-
Advance Durable Goods/Factory Orders
Durable good new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. The advance report is an early estimate of durable goods orders. Two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the Factory Orders report. Department of Commerce; BEA.
The report provides information on the strength of demand, from both domestic and foreign sources, for U.S. manufactured durable goods.
Weekly jobless data
Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.
Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.
Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.
Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.
GVI Forex Futures 11:46:38 GMT - 01/28/2010
Total Open Interest in the EURO FX futures increased by 2,821 contracts yesterday to 182,801. We know from the COT report that the markets are already heavily short EURUSD. It is interesting that on what was a decisively negative session for EURUSD yesterday that only a modest number of positions were added.
Its been our experience, maybe its a carry over from equity trading, that the futures market can be uncomfortable about taking short positions in currencies.
GVI Forex john 10:43:55 GMT - 01/28/2010
The Daily Forex View
Risk Trade on --
GMT- Jan 28 (global-view.com) The markets are still trying to sift
mixed agenda of President Obama. It seems now that they feel that good
rhetoric is no longer enough. The Congress and administration already
frittered away a year
GMT- Jan 27 (global-view.com) President
Obama's State of the Union address tonight is the major focus for the markets.
Keep in mind that this is only a political speech that contains only a
wish list for future legislation...
Jan 27 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Early Thursday in the Far East will see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision. No rate change is seen. Japanese retail sales data are important as well. In the U.S., major highlights will be Durable Goods and weekly jobless claims. Also, the afternoon will see a 7-yr note auction.
Not a pretty picture...
New Homes Sales (red line), Starts and Permits
GVI Forex john 14:53:30 GMT - 01/27/2010
Data Call @ 15:00 GMT
New Home Sales, Starts/Permits
New Home Sales record sales of U.S. newly constructed residences. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes New Home Sales statistics monthly.
New Homes Sales, Starts and Permits
HK REVDAX 13:24:45 GMT - 01/27/2010
Futures 13:15 // My cycles suggest that Euro is recovering today into tomorrow (Feb 28) before topping out again.
GVI Forex Futures 13:15:53 GMT - 01/27/2010
Total EURO FX futures open interest increased by 6488 contracts on Tuesday. We have to assume that traders added to their shorts based on the price action. Tuesday is always an important day as it is the basis for the Commitment of Traders report that comes out on Friday's close.
FWIW there are significant EUR USD shorts to be covered on a EURUSD rally. Perhaps someone could suggest to us where those stops WOULD be clustered. So far EURUSD still looking heavy.
GVI Forex john 13:06:48 GMT - 01/27/2010
Earlier Australian quarterly CPI. Yr/Yr up.
GVI Forex john 11:54:01 GMT - 01/27/2010
Data Call @ 12:00 GMT
Weekly Mortgage Statistics
Weekly Mortgage Statistics are released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Total mortgage applications are the headline figure. They are then broken down into (1) new mortgage applications and (2) refinance applications. Both items by themselves are more revealing than the total number. The latest 30-year mortgage interest rate is released as well.
IMPACT: These data provide an early read on the state of the housing market.
GVI Forex john 10:53:56 GMT - 01/27/2010
The Daily Forex View
Active U.S. Calendar
GMT- Jan 27 (global-view.com) Once again Asian bourses have
fallen, led by concerns about policy tightening in China. The Nikkei also fell
on worry about reduced demand for exports from that region...
Later Data Call @ 00:30 GMT
Australia Quarterly Consumer Price Index
The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as ‚Äúcore‚ÄĚ inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.
Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.
GVI Forex john 22:14:46 GMT - 01/26/2010
Data Call @ 23:50 GMT
Broad Definition: Merchandise trade is trade in goods only, not services, and excludes capital transfers and foreign investments. Exports are total exports; they include both domestically-produced goods and re-exports, which constitute imports of goods which are warehoused here, then re-exported. Imports are general imports, which measure total arrivals of goods. The. Balance of trade is defined as total exports minus general imports.
IMPACT: Trade figures used to be viewed as the most important statistic for the forex market. It goes to proper valuation of the exchange rate, but can also reflect relative demand for goods. A trade deficit is a net deduction from GDP, while a surplus is an addition.
GMT- Jan 26 (global-view.com) The focus of activity early Tuesday
was back on risk aversion trades. That means traders were unloading European
currencies, commodities, commodity currencies, equities etc. On the other side
they purchased carry trade financing currencies
GVI Forex john 18:02 GMT January 26, 2010
Headlines and Discussion: Reply
2-yr auction $44bln
Mtl JP 18:06:39 GMT - 01/26/2010
john earlier today CBO annonced that in 2010 US gov't will be in deficit by $1.3 trillion (trillion = one thousand billion, which intself is a thousand million). I expect that # does not include any roll-overs of debt coming due.
re "stumble could reverberate through the marketplace"
can u expand in some detail what types of investment play opportunities those revirberations could represent ?
GVI Forex john 17:13:57 GMT - 01/26/2010
Data Call @ 18:00 GMT-
U.S. 2-yr NOTE AUCTION RESULT
Markets are highly sensitive to the results of periodic U.S. debt auctions. This is because of the sheer magnitude of the paper that is continuously being offered to the marketplace. Any stumble could reverberate through the marketplace.
GVI Forex john 16:42:22 GMT - 01/26/2010
Jan 26 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Wednesday in the Far East will see Japanese trade data. Key Australian CPI data are due as well. In the U.S., major highlights are new Homes Sales and weekly energy data. The afternoon will see a 5-yr note auction and the latest Fed decision.
Consumer Confidence Survey is a monthly report detailing consumer attitudes and buying intentions. The Index is calculated on the basis of a 5,000 household survey of consumer opinions on current conditions and future expectations of the economy.
GVI Forex john 13:23:32 GMT - 01/26/2010
Data Call @ 14:00 GMT
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is a broader composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly.
This is yet another measure of the housing industry in the U.S. It is watched because of its accuracy, but the data tend to be too old to impact the markets much.
GVI Forex Futures 13:12:10 GMT - 01/26/2010
Total open interest in the EURO FX contract increased by a scant 100 contracts on Monday. This lack of interest was reflected in the intra-day trading range yesterday. Open Interest is still a healthy 173,493 contracts.
We were able to confirm via the weekly Commitment of Traders report on Friday that the market still holds significant EURO shorts (USD longs).
GVI Forex john 12:59:40 GMT - 01/26/2010
Earlier U.K. GDP weaker than expected. Focus in on quarterly figures (red bars) which are showing steady improvement. Note also that the quarterly (3 months) figures are not annualized. The yr/yr figures cover 12 months...
GVI Forex john 12:54:05 GMT - 01/26/2010
Earlier IFO Survey. Looking strong. Note slope of lines.
GVI Forex john 10:51:10 GMT - 01/26/2010
The Daily Forex View
Risk Trade Off Today
GMT- Jan 26 (global-view.com) There have been mixed developments
so far today in the financial markets. China persists in monetary tightening
as fears about bubbles in the economy continue. A more direct solution might
be to allow the CNY exchange rate to gain...
GMT- Jan 25 (global-view.com) Markets definitely calmed down a lot
from their worries from late last week. Both political parties appear to have
realized that it would be a disaster for the markets and
Jan 25 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Tuesday in the Far East will see the latest Bank of Japan policy decision. In Europe, the German IFO survey outcome is awaited, along with EZ Current Account and U.K. GDP data. U.S. data are the Case Shiller index and the Conference Board Customer Confidence figure. Later a two year note auction is due. The API energy report is a good predictor of the EIA data on Wednesday.
Note: Due to database
limitations, averages are approximate
GVI Forex john 13:17:41 GMT - 01/25/2010
Data Call @ 15:00 GMT
Existing Homes Sales
The most closely followed housing statistic by the markets is Existing Homes sales compiled by the NAR (National Association of Realtors). Existing-Home Sales data come out On or about the 25th of each month. The report contains statistics on sales and prices of existing single-family homes for the nation and the four regions. These figures include condos and co-ops, in addition to single-family homes.
A chart of the data is posted following the data release.
GVI Forex futures 12:53:22 GMT - 01/25/2010
Total open interest in the EURO FX futures gained 3,687 to
173,393 on Friday. Our best guess, based on the moving averages, was that the markets at the margin were adding to shorts, but not overwhelmingly so. As for the COT report released by the CFTC on Friday, traders remained as they have been for many weeks, overwhelmingly short the EURUSD.
GVI Forex john 11:11:26 GMT - 01/25/2010
The Daily Forex View
The Dust Has Started to Settle
GMT- Jan 25¬†(global-view.com) Markets appear to have calmed down
a lot from their worries from late last week. Despite a lot of empty political
posturing, both political parties seem to have realized that it would be a
disaster for the markets...
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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