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GVI Forex john  19:56:12 GMT - 05/14/2010  
Recent history of positions on Futures Forum.


GVI Forex john  19:52:29 GMT - 05/14/2010  
GVI index of long futures positions (weekly change). Range 0 to 100. A reading of 50 means longs and shorts are equal.

Commitment of Traders Report...







GVI Forex john  17:26:06 GMT - 05/14/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Weekly- Disorderly Markets

18:00 GMT- May 14 (global-view.com)  We were wondering Friday what is the current definition of disorderly markets for the central banks as the EURUSD plunged through the 1.2400 line. One 

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GVI Forex john  17:08:00 GMT - 05/14/2010  
May 14 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Monday will see Japanese machinery orders data and the corporate goods price index (wholesale prices).No major European data are due. In North America, the U.S. will release the Empire State PMI, monthly TIC data and the NAHB Index.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

 

23:50

JA

Mar Mach Ords

n/a

-5.40%

23:50

JA

Apr CGPI mm

0.03%

0.20%

23:50

JA

Apr CGPI yy

-0.30%

-1.30%

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

12:30

US

May Empire PMI

29

31.9

13:00

US

Mar TIC data

n/a

n/a

17:00

US

May NAHB Index

20

19



GVI Forex john  13:56:07 GMT - 05/14/2010  
U of M 73.3


GVI Forex john  13:16:03 GMT - 05/14/2010  
IP +0.8% C/U 73.7%


GVI Forex john  12:36:03 GMT - 05/14/2010  
Retail Sales +0.4% (vs rev +2.1% vs +1.9%) ex-autos +0.4% (vs rev +1.2% vs +0.9%)


GVI Forex john  12:06:24 GMT - 05/14/2010  
Data @ 12:30 GMT
Retail Sales

Slightly weaker reading seen as incentives ran off.


Retail Sales are usually a broad measure of the retail sale of consumer durable and non-durables. It is used by analysts to gauge the strength of consumer consumption.

IMPACT: In most economies, the consumer sector is the largest sector of the economy. Central banks watch retail sales to measure the strength of the economy.


GVI Forex john  11:40:39 GMT - 05/14/2010  

RISK TRADES: gold, oil, commodities, equities, futures trades and the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD).

Check out the Global-view Futures Forum

If you ever have any kind of trading question, ask on one of our forums. Someone always has an informed reply! We're all here to help!


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GVI Forex john  09:52:01 GMT - 05/14/2010  

The Daily Forex View

USD and JPY Up vs. Europe

10:00 GMT- May 14 (global-view.com) Today is seeing broad gains in the USD against the European big three currencies (EUR, CHF and GBP). It is more or less s

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GVI Forex john  19:30:21 GMT - 05/13/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Reduced Europe Participation 

20:00 GMT- May 13 (global-view.com)  A number of European markets were closed Thursday for the Ascension Day holiday, and this reduced market participation modestly. By and large capital flows out of the Euro continued for another day.

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GVI Forex john  15:33:40 GMT - 05/13/2010  
May 13 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Friday will see no major Far East or European data. In North America, Canadian manufacturing sales are awaited. The U.S. will release Retail Sales, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, University of Michigan Sentiment and Business Inventories.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

12:30

CA

Mfg Sales -- Mar

1.00%

0.10%

12:30

US

Apr R/S x-auto

0.60%

0.60%

12:30

US

Apr Retail Sls

0.30%

1.60%

13:15

US

Apr Cap Util

73.60%

73.20%

13:15

US

Apr Ind Prod

0.50%

0.10%

13:55

US

Mayp U Mich Sent

73.5

72.2

14:00

US

Mar Bus Inv

0.40%

0.50%



GVI Forex john  12:38:08 GMT - 05/13/2010  
More disappointing data...

Weekly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for seven-year history



GVI Forex john  12:03:03 GMT - 05/13/2010  
Data @ 12:30 GMT
Weekly jobless data

Estimates are for another so-so result = 440K


Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.


Import/Export Prices
The import price index measures changes in the prices of imports of merchandise into a country.

The export price index is an index calculated for the prices of one or any specified group of commodities entering into international trade using, ideally, f.o.b. export prices.




GVI Forex john  11:57:55 GMT - 05/13/2010  
 
Earlier: Australian employment data stronger than expected...


GVI Forex john  09:54:03 GMT - 05/13/2010  

The Daily Forex View

EUR Continues its Slide

10:00 GMT- May 13 (global-view.com)  A number of European markets are closed  today for the Ascension Day holiday, but most of the major markets are open. Capital flows out of the Euro continue 

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GVI Forex john  19:55:59 GMT - 05/12/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Gold Rush!

20:00 GMT- May 12 (global-view.com)  Wednesday was a sluggish trading session as forex markets got off to a more cautious start. There was market chatter again that the BIS had been 

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GVI Forex john  19:09:55 GMT - 05/12/2010  
Noting divergence between EURUSD and equities. May be a move out of EUR into gold and CHF. However, GBP WEAK vs. EUR. Its all in the various relationships. Commodity currencies no refuge today.


GVI Forex john  15:37:49 GMT - 05/12/2010  
May 12 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Thursday will see Japanese Current Account data to open Far East trade. Australian employment data also will be pivotal. In Europe, no key data are due. In North America, weekly jobless claims and natural gas inventories will be released.. Also the U.S. will hold a 30-yr auction.

23:50

JA

Mar Cur Acct

35.30%

29.60%

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

Apr Employ k

20

19.6

0:30

AU

Apr Rate

5.30%

5.30%

12:30

US

Apr Imp Prices

0.80%

0.70%

12:30

US

WK Cont Claims m

4.59

4.594

12:30

US

WK Initial Claims k

440

444

14:30

US

DOE Nat Gas bcf

93

83

17:00

US

TRY 30-yr

n/a

n/a



GVI Forex john  12:44:42 GMT - 05/12/2010  
 
CHART: U.S. trade deficit.


PAR 12:36:35 GMT - 05/12/2010  
Greed is good . Big trade deficit is good . Big budget deficit is good . Big twin deficits are good. Everything seems to be good so lets be happy. Wall Street II will be shown in Cannes.


GVI Forex john  12:32:53 GMT - 05/12/2010  
U.S. trade deficit $40.42bn. Should not havea big impact on GDP revisions.


GVI Forex john  11:51:36 GMT - 05/12/2010  
Data @ 12:30 GMT

U.S. and Canada Merchandise Trade
Some expecting a significant decline in the U.S. deficit.


Broad Definition: Merchandise trade is trade in goods only, not services, and excludes capital transfers and foreign investments. Exports are total exports; they include both domestically-produced goods and re-exports, which constitute imports of goods which are warehoused here, then re-exported. Imports are general imports, which measure total arrivals of goods. The. Balance of trade is defined as total exports minus general imports.

IMPACT: Trade figures used to be viewed as the most important statistic for the forex market. It goes to proper valuation of the exchange rate, but can also reflect relative demand for goods. A trade deficit is a net deduction from GDP, while a surplus is an addition.



GVI Forex john  11:33:37 GMT - 05/12/2010  

RISK TRADES: gold, oil, commodities, equities, futures trades and the commodity currencies.

Check out and PARTICIPATE on the Global-view Futures Forum

If you ever have any kind of trading question, ask on one of our forums. Someone always has an informed reply! We're all here to help!


Questions? Contact Us





GVI Forex john  09:53:54 GMT - 05/12/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Rush to Gold

10:00 GMT- May 12 (global-view.com)  Forex markets are off to a more cautious start today as a lot of uncertainty in the markets has been lifted over the week. 

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GVI Forex john  22:32:13 GMT - 05/11/2010  

Any questions about what is happening or why?

Do you want an opinion on a currency pair or other instrument, or a critique of a trading idea?

Ask on one of our forums. Someone always has an informed reply! We're all here to help!

Questions? Contact Us





GVI Forex  john  20:43:02 GMT - 05/11/2010  
API
Crude +400K
Gasoline -900K
Distillates +100K
C/U 84.9%


tokyo rana  19:15:25 GMT - 05/11/2010  
lkwd jj,tellme ur bias about gbpjpy?
50% saying go up 145 to 180 50% saying go down 125 to 99..ithink better leave this pair...happy trade,


london red  19:15:05 GMT - 05/11/2010  
often markets prefer to travel than arrive...cable made 2 big figures on the back of the con-lib announcement and the brown resignation which was also made known earlier and until recently the cross was holding very well with very little profit taking, so some weakness can't be too surprising. There will probably be some announcements of a crude one line nature late this evening UK time once the respective leaders have it out with their MPs as to what eah side wants and where the compromises will be.


tokyo rana  19:12:25 GMT - 05/11/2010  
cable is always not stable...happy trade


lkwd jj  19:10:32 GMT - 05/11/2010  
cable mkt not happy about something. going down and fast.


GVI Forex john  19:01:55 GMT - 05/11/2010  
Conservative Party Leader to see the Queen shortly.


GVI Forex john  18:56:45 GMT - 05/11/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Shock and Awe No More

20:00 GMT- May 11 (global-view.com)  Forex markets grew increasingly skeptical over the day about the European bailout program. Worries that critical German financial support 

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GVI Forex john  15:08:18 GMT - 05/11/2010  
U.K. possibly edging closer to forming a government. LIB-Tory coalition. Presumably good for GBP to form a govt


GVI Forex john  14:25:54 GMT - 05/11/2010  
May 11 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Wednesday will see Japanese Leading indicators in Far East trade. In Europe, Eurozone GDP and Industrial Production are due. Also the Bank of England Inflation report is scheduled. In North America, weekly mortgage statistics will be released early. On the NY open Canadian and U.S. visible trade figures will be released. Wednesday sees weekly energy inventories. Also the U.S. will hold a 10-yr auction.

 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

5:00

JA

Mar Lead Ind

n/a

1

9:00

EZ

1Q GDP qq

0.20%

n/a

9:00

EZ

1Q GDP yy

0.50%

n/a

9:00

EZ

Mar Ind Prod mm

0.90%

0.90%

9:00

EZ

Mar Ind Prod yy

6.10%

4.10%

10:30

UK

Inflation Report

n/a

n/a

11:00

US

WK Mortgage Stats

n/a

n/a

12:30

CA

Trade C$bn Mar

1.55

1.4

12:30

US

Feb Trade bn

39.4

-39.7

14:30

US

EIA Crude mn

1.6

2.8

14:30

US

EIA Distillate mn

1.2

0.6

14:30

US

EIA Gasoline mn

0.7

1.2

14:30

US

EIA Cap Util

89.50%

89.60%

17:00

US

TRY 10-yr

n/a

n/a





GVI Forex john  21:14:52 GMT - 05/10/2010  
Fed announcing that it is going to "test" an issuance of short-term time deposits in June. They say the test has no policy implications and they will not, but the market will interpret the actions as setting the stage for the next step in policy normalization, which it is.

The Fed is preparing to tighten policy and the ECB is embarking on Quantitative Easing. This is bad fundamental news for the EUR.



GVI Forex john  19:17:39 GMT - 05/10/2010  

The Daily Forex View

No EURUSD Short Squeeze

20:00 GMT- May 10 (global-view.com)  Markets have had a lot to absorb on Monday as they digest the massive European stability pact announced over 

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GVI Forex john  14:53:50 GMT - 05/10/2010  
May 10 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Tuesday will be a relatively thin day on the data front with nothing major slated from Asia or Europe. In North America, the U.S. will see wholesale inventories and the weekly API inventory data.

 

 

TUESDAY

 

 

14:00

US

Mar Whsl Inv

0.50%

0.60%

18:30

US

API Energy

n/a

n/a

 



Chicago sc  12:00:24 GMT - 05/10/2010  
Markets are going have a lot to digest in coming days. I think we still have to consider the risk of forex intervention on market instability. I don't the EU wants the currency stronger, but has to worry about what signal that EUR weakness sends.


GVI Forex john  11:01:31 GMT - 05/10/2010  
BOE unchanged, as expected.


GVI Forex john  10:01:16 GMT - 05/10/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Europe Trying a Short Squeeze

10:00 GMT- May 10 (global-view.com)  Global financial markets are digesting the massive European stability pact announced over the weekend. A lot of details still need to be fleshed out,

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GVI Forex  john  19:32:03 GMT - 05/09/2010  
EU ministers' statement by 2100 GMT - EU official


GVI Forex john  13:44:56 GMT - 05/09/2010  
Many headlines on the wires from the European Finance Ministers all of them seem to be blaming speculators. All pledging support for the euro. Don't question their commitment, even though they are blaming the messenger (the market). They can try to drive the EUR higher on the Asian open or just try to stabilize it. Stability in the Euro will not improve the creditworthiness of EZ sovereign bonds.

From a trading stand point look for wide ranges in active Asian markets early Monday.


tokyo ginko  12:42:20 GMT - 05/09/2010  
I assume it is according to Brussels' time which is now Sun 14:41


GVI Forex  john  12:41:46 GMT - 05/09/2010  
RKG- thank you!


Blore RKG  12:30:14 GMT - 05/09/2010  
John, i would assume its some 32 minutes from now and 212 minutes for the press briefing from now - Brussels (CEST 1428 now).


GVI Forex john  11:31:12 GMT - 05/09/2010  
Can anyone help? I assume the times below are 13:00 and 16:00 GMT respectively. thats 2-1/2 and 5-1/2 hours from now respectively...


From Bloomberg:
European officials declined to disclose the size of the stabilization fund, to be made up of money borrowed by the EU’s central authorities with guarantees by national governments. Finance ministers will meet at about 3 p.m. in Brussels. A press briefing is scheduled for 6 p.m.

‘That’s Significant’

“When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. “If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits.” Sarkozy cancelled a planned trip to Moscow today to deal with the crisis.


GVI Forex john  11:23:44 GMT - 05/09/2010  
Personal Opinions:
These markets are very hard for me. I'e never seen something like it. I am accustomed to currency crises triggered by high inflation excessive growth etc. They normally have been addressed by a currency devaluation, restrictive budgets, monetary squeeze etc. So a government tries to avoid the inevitable by forex intervention etc. and then finally has to deal with the root cause of their problems by slowing the economy down.

How is this situation different? We are already in a deflationary spiral and the traditional remedies won't work. The IMF only knows how to trigger an economic slowdown, but we are dealing with economies that are already weak. Traditional therapies are akin to the Medieval practice of bleeding the fever in a dying man. You slow down the economies of Greece, Spain, Portugal etc., and even more people will be thrown out of work and their budget problems will only get worse. Not only will revenues fall but the demands on the social safety-nets will increase. Additionally, there is an increased risk of social unrest. The few wealthy European countries lack the resources bail out all the rest. Furthermore a near-term bailout will not address long-term structural issues that must still be fixed.

The only obvious socially-acceptable solution for Greece, Spain etc. is a currency DEVALUATION. Plans to shore up the Euro over the weekend make absolutely no sense. European countries in Europe at risk need economic STIMULUS not more deflation.

Its not the speculators that are the problem. It is illogical for investors to hold onto Greek debt if inevitably they are going to suffer a haircut. It also makes no sense to hold onto eur if the common currency scheme inevitably is going to have


GVI Forex john  21:15:53 GMT - 05/07/2010  
Historical charts on Futures Forum (COT)


GVI Forex john  20:51:16 GMT - 05/07/2010  
GVI index of long futures positions (weekly change). Range 0 to 100. A reading of 50 means longs and shorts are equal.

Commitment of Traders Report...







GVI Forex john  16:52:30 GMT - 05/07/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Weekly- Unsettled Trade

18:00 GMT- May 7 (global-view.com)  On Friday the markets were picking up the pieces after the instability of markets on Thursday. Legislation in Europe on the Greek bailout progressed pretty much

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GVI Forex john  15:04:18 GMT - 05/07/2010  
Fixed income market table updated on Futures Forum. Prices continue to improve and yields fall.


GVI Forex john  14:57:20 GMT - 05/07/2010  
May 7 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Early Monday will see the latest BOJ Central Bank minutes. In Europe, German trade figures and a Bank of England policy meeting (delayed due to election) are awaited. No rate changes are expected. In North America, the U.S. and Canada release no major data.

23::50

JA

BOJ Minutes

n/a

n/a

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

7:00

DE

Mar Trade EURb

n/a

12.1

11:00

UK

BOE Rates (0.50%)

unch

unch





GVI Forex john  13:38:46 GMT - 05/07/2010  
Two snapshots of U.S. fixed income markets today on Futures Forum. Yields off sharply in 10-yr.


GVI Forex john  12:38:20 GMT - 05/07/2010  
Also positive revisions to prior data...


Click on chart for more than 10-yr history



GVI Forex john  12:31:31 GMT - 05/07/2010  
290K
9.9%


GVI Forex john  11:36:27 GMT - 05/07/2010  
Data @ 12:30 GMT
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment
NFP seen +180K to 200K.


Non-Farm Payroll Employment is a monthly estimate of the number of payroll jobs at all nonfarm business establishments and government agencies. Information is also provided on the average number of hours worked per week and average hourly and weekly earnings.

The rate of unemployment is released along with this report.

Impact: Growth of employment and hours worked provide important information about the current and likely future pace of overall economic growth. Trends in average hourly earnings provide information about supply and demand conditions in labor markets, which may provide signals about the overall level of resource utilization in the economy.



GVI Forex john  11:09:48 GMT - 05/07/2010  
 
Canadian employment much stronger than expected.


GVI Forex john  11:01:11 GMT - 05/07/2010  
Canada +109K
rate 8.1%


GVI Forex john  09:56:06 GMT - 05/07/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Uncertainty Persists

10:00 GMT- May 7 (global-view.com)  The U.K. election result has had the worst possible outcome with a hung Parliament assured. Its unclear who in the end 

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NY MAXXXIM  00:17:35 GMT - 05/07/2010  
1 2 3 5 8 13 a b c E who1 no1 upyours mass media swineflu bs.


Eldoradopark area 702  22:37:01 GMT - 05/06/2010  
 
eco warriors nomics


Auckland  peat  21:37:42 GMT - 05/06/2010  
arco is saying
Present rumour is that a major US bank had an order to sell $15 million of S&P e-mini (YM) contracts but accidentally sold $15 billion. This could have triggered automatic computerised systems creating mayhem.


Europe Theorist  21:36:57 GMT - 05/06/2010  
UK BOND MARKET TO OPEN 1AM GMT. FIRST TIME EVER TO DEAL WITH FIXED INCOME/DEBT MKTS AND GBP


GVI Forex john  21:28:54 GMT - 05/06/2010  
Magic number for forming a government is 326 seats.


GVI Forex john  21:27:16 GMT - 05/06/2010  
Watching CNBC they finally have gotten around to discovering that the EUR/JPY trade preceded the plunge in stocks. I'm finding the "fat finger" story a little hard to accept.

for now:
- We will see if the Tories will be able to pull together a government once the actual votes are tallied. That will take a number of hours from now. A Conservative government should be GBP supportive if it comes to pass.

- Friday is monthly employment day for the U.S. This could be a big market mover.

- German Parliament (Upper and Lower Houses) is expected to approve Greek bailout bill tomorrow. This would not be a surprise to anyone.





GVI Forex john  21:06:45 GMT - 05/06/2010  
UK Exit Poll: Conservative Party To Win 307 Seats
UK Exit Poll: Labour Party To Win 255 Seats
UK Exit Poll: Liberal Democrats To Win 59 Seats
UK Poll: Labour-Liberal Coalition Would Fall Short Of Majority

------------------------------

GBP up


Cairo Hesham  19:51:36 GMT - 05/06/2010  
We will see more recovery next 24 hours


GVI Forex john  19:49:32 GMT - 05/06/2010  
Equities recovering helping EURUSD.


GVI Forex john  19:19:07 GMT - 05/06/2010  
flight to safety
US-2Y	0.777	-10 	-36.3
US-3Y	1.256	-14 	-54.4
US-5Y	2.141	-16 	-53.9
US-7Y	2.835	-17 	-41.6
US-10Y	3.399	-15 	-43.1
US-30Y	4.190	-20 	-17.0


warsaw TOMi  19:08:01 GMT - 05/06/2010  
overwhelming traffic, shot 100 pips down from 10K mark
it must be good advertising .. unbelievable those marketing forces :)
happy trades


GVI Forex john  19:04:18 GMT - 05/06/2010  
Note carnage in equities started in EUR/JPY trade. You have to monitor stocks.


GVI Forex  john  18:50:02 GMT - 05/06/2010  
DJIA	10185	-683 	10880	9870
S&P	1093	-73 	1167	1069
SP FUT	1120.5 	-43.5 	1168.8 	1119.5 
NAS	2239	-163 	2408	2186
TSE	11720	-155 	11949	11714


USA ZEUS  18:48:04 GMT - 05/06/2010  
nyc s 18:44 GMT May 6, 2010

Big picture was negative from several figures above.
I also call for scalps intraday. Scalps have been called and taken in reactionary moves. Some for a handful of pips and some for 60 like earlier today. NOW we are in a different market than people see when they look backwards at their charts- biggest mistake ever in trading. The past does not determine the future- EVER! The EUR/USD market is now in a two way phase for some time. Take it or leave it but when you see higher levels then you'll know( and know that it is too late to do anything about it)


Chicago sc  18:47:48 GMT - 05/06/2010  
I can understand it from my perspective. I posted on it last night. I find EURUSD trades better from the long side than the short. You just have to pick your shots very carefully.


nyc s  18:44:14 GMT - 05/06/2010  
Zeus I do not understand your repeated euro buy calls and bearish euro perspective. Am I missing something?


USA ZEUS  18:36:33 GMT - 05/06/2010  
CNBC showing riots breaking out in Athens just now.

This too is no surprise. Called for that many moons ago. Unfortunately it is only just beginning.

Be Prepared.


Minneapolis DRS2  18:25:37 GMT - 05/06/2010  
What is bad for EUR now will eventually be bad for USD. Those riots will eventually show up in the US.


HK [email protected]  18:24:50 GMT - 05/06/2010  
I told people yesterday to take very seriously those riots.
People power should never be discounted.


GVI Forex john  18:23:49 GMT - 05/06/2010  
Don't forget U.K. election results start to come out at 21:00 GMT.

GBP already trashed today. Source of some weak support for EUR??



GVI Forex john  18:21:57 GMT - 05/06/2010  
Bad for EUR.


GVI Forex john  18:21:18 GMT - 05/06/2010  
CNBC showing riots breaking out in Athens just now.


GVI Forex john  18:12:41 GMT - 05/06/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Eur, U.K. Vote, U.S. Jobs, etc.

20:00 GMT- May 6 (global-view.com)  The outcome of the ECB meeting was a disappointment Thursday after the ECB did little to suage fears of the markets 

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Belgrade AS  15:11:37 GMT - 05/06/2010  
thanks m8.needed to clear that up in my head !
thanks


GVI Forex john  15:07:04 GMT - 05/06/2010  
May 6 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Friday will see the policy statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia. In Europe, Swiss unemployment and retail sales data are due. U.K. PPI are also due along with German industrial output. In North America, U.S. and Canadian employment data are major highlights.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

RBA Policy Statement

n/a

n/a

5:45

CH

Apr Unemploy

4.10%

4.10%

7:15

CH

Mar Ret Sls yy

n/a

3.10%

8:30

UK

Apr Core PPI yy

3.50%

3.60%

10:00

DE

Feb Ind Output

1.40%

0.00%

11:00

CA

Apr Employ k

20.5

17.9

11:00

CA

Apr Rate

8.20%

8.20%

12:30

US

Apr Employ k

200

162

12:30

US

Apr Jobless

9.70%

9.70%



GVI Forex john  15:06:49 GMT - 05/06/2010  
AS- missed your question earlier. Yes, if a central bank buys bonds without regard to the money supply implications it can be Quantitative Easing. QE is basically flooding an economy with money.


Belgrade AS  13:21:11 GMT - 05/06/2010  
John GVI,is buying government bonds considered as "QE"?
i mean,it's an asset in ,right?
tia


GVI Forex john  13:20:27 GMT - 05/06/2010  
Markets not responding positively to Trichet press conference. Lack of specifics a problem.


GVI Forex john  12:40:54 GMT - 05/06/2010  
Another lackluster weekly jobs report... 444K

Weekly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for seven-year history



GVI Forex john  12:19:15 GMT - 05/06/2010  
 
Earlier Swiss CPI not much to worry about...


GVI Forex john  12:07:43 GMT - 05/06/2010  
Data/Events @ 12:30 GMT

ECB Press Conference
Quantitative ease? collateral rules changes?

An important component of the ECB policy decision. Live Video broadcast.

Weekly jobless data
Recently disappointing figures

Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.

U.S. Quarterly Productivity
important metric for future Fed policy

Productivity measures output from a production process per unit of input. Labor productivity is typically measured as a ratio of output per labor-hour.




GVI Forex john  11:45:19 GMT - 05/06/2010  
ECB unchanged


GVI Forex john  09:51:03 GMT - 05/06/2010  

The Daily Forex View

ECB Outcome to be Watched

10:00 GMT- May 6 (global-view.com)  The main focus at this hour is the outcome of the ECB meeting today with the markets wondering what if the central bank will announce a new round of quantitative 

MORE





GVI Forex john  09:50:07 GMT - 05/06/2010  
SNB refuses to comment. Standard procedure for them.


GVI Forex john  19:33:23 GMT - 05/05/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Wild Trading Conditions

20:00 GMT- May 5 (global-view.com)  Financial markets turned volatile Wednesday in early North American trading hours. Planned protests against upcoming government austerity measures

MORE





GVI Forex john  15:41:08 GMT - 05/05/2010  
May 5 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Thursday will see Japan return from Golden Days holidays. Australia will release Retail Sales and Visible Trade data. In Europe, Swiss CPI U.K. Service PMI and German Industrial orders are due. The ECB will announce its latest policy decision. No policy changes are likely. In North America, U.S. weekly jobless claims and 1Q10 productivity data are due. Weekly natural gas data are slated as well. The Canadian Ivey PMI data are widely followed.


 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

Retail Trade 1Q

0.30%

1.10%

0:30

AU

Mar Retail Sales

0.80%

-1.40%

0:30

AU

Mar Trade A$bln

-2.2

-1.924

7:15

CH

Apr CPI mm

0.70%

0.10%

7:15

CH

Apr CPI yy

1.30%

1.40%

8:30

UK

Apr SVC PMI

57

56.5

10:00

DE

Mar Ind Ord mm

1.20%

0.00%

11:45

EZ

ECB Rates (1.00%)

unch

unch

12:30

EZ

ECB Webcast

n/a

n/a

12:30

US

1Q Productivity

2.50%

6.90%

12:30

US

WK Cont Claims m

4.65

4.645

12:30

US

WK Initial Claims k

440

448

14:00

CA

Apr Ivey PMI

n/a

57.8

14:30

US

DOE Nat Gas bcf

78

77

...


GVI Forex  john  14:31:52 GMT - 05/05/2010  
EIA
Crude +2.8m
Gasoline +1.2m
Distillates 600K
C/U 89.6%



GVI Forex john  14:06:38 GMT - 05/05/2010  
 
EZ/US PMI svc


GVI Forex john  14:02:16 GMT - 05/05/2010  
Service PMI 55.4


GVI Forex john  13:27:19 GMT - 05/05/2010  
Data @ 14:00 GMT

U.S. Purchasing Managers Index – Service
Strong Headline figure expected


Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.



GVI Forex john  13:15:11 GMT - 05/05/2010  
To state the obvious, be very careful in these conditions and keep your leverage down. The markets are forcing the hand of the EU. No telling when they will finally respond. It could be in 5 minutes or a couple of days. Political markets are the hardest to trade.


GVI Forex john  12:25:33 GMT - 05/05/2010  
Monthly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for more than 10-yr history



GVI Forex john  12:17:00 GMT - 05/05/2010  
ADP # implies +180K for Friday NFP


GVI Forex john  12:16:15 GMT - 05/05/2010  
ADP +32K


GVI Forex john  11:49:23 GMT - 05/05/2010  
 
Earlier EZ revised Services PMI...


GVI Forex john  11:30:33 GMT - 05/05/2010  
Data @ 12:15 GMT
U.S. ADP National Employment Report
NFP on Friday = Private sector jobs change + government (Fed + State and local). NET government employment is seen +50K to +100K in April. ADP has been more reliable recently, but we still don't trust it.


The ADP National Private Employment Report is a measure of nonfarm private employment, based on aggregated and anonymous payroll data. The report attempts to provide additional timely and accurate estimates of short-term movements in the national labor markets ADP pays 1-in-6 private sector employees in the United States across a broad range of industries, firm sizes, and geographies.

The data (after revisions) tend to track the government data over time, although on any given month there can be significant discrepancies. The ADP report does not include government employees.


GVI Forex john  10:40:39 GMT - 05/05/2010  
Data @ 11:00 GMT

Weekly Mortgage Statistics


Weekly Mortgage Statistics are released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Total mortgage applications are the headline figure. They are then broken down into (1) new mortgage applications and (2) refinance applications. Both items by themselves are more revealing than the total number. The latest 30-year mortgage interest rate is released as well.

IMPACT: These data provide an early read on the state of the housing market.


GVI Forex john  09:51:50 GMT - 05/05/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Markets Focus on Stocks

10:00 GMT- May 5 (global-view.com)  Markets are on edge heading into the North American session today. The April ADP private jobs data would normally be the highlight of the session, but 

MORE





GVI Forex john  18:22:30 GMT - 05/04/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Markets Back in Action

20:00 GMT- May 4 (global-view.com)  With virtually all markets back Tuesday, except Japan which is in its Golden Week holidays, the focus was on the Euro-zone debt contagion. 

MORE





GVI Forex john  17:42:18 GMT - 05/04/2010  

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GVI Forex john  16:01:45 GMT - 05/04/2010  
May 4 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Wednesday will see the final Golden Week holiday in Japan. In Europe, EZ Service PMI data are due. Eurozone retail sales data are also awaited. In North America, U.S. mortgage statistics, ADP private employment data and the Service PMI are slated. Weekly EIA energy data are also on the docket.

 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

0:00

JA

Holiday

n/a

n/a

7:59

EZ

Apr SVC PMI

55.5

54.1

9:00

EZ

Mar Retail Sls mm

0.20%

-0.60%

9:00

EZ

Mar Retail Sls yy

-0.50%

-1.10%

11:00

US

WK Mortgage Stats

n/a

n/a

12:15

US

Apr ADP Jobs k

28

-23

14:00

US

Apr SVC PMI

56.3

55.4

10:30

US

EIA Crude mn

1.2

1.9

10:30

US

EIA Distillate mn

1.8

2.9

10:30

US

EIA Gasoline mn

0.2

-1.2

10:30

US

EIA Cap Util

89.20%

89.00%





GVI Forex john  14:10:12 GMT - 05/04/2010  
 
Pending Homes Sales predict Existing Homes data..


GVI Forex john  13:47:47 GMT - 05/04/2010  
Data @ 14:00 GMT

Pending Homes Sales

The Pending Homes sales index is produced monthly by the NAR. Pending Home Sales become Existing-Home Sales one-to-two months later.

The index derived from Pending Home Sales is used to predict Existing Home Sales, which is the most important U.S. housing statistic.


Factory Orders (Revision to Advance Durable Goods Orders)
Durable good new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. The advance report is an early estimate of durable goods orders. Two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the Factory Orders report. Department of Commerce; BEA.

The report provides information on the strength of demand, from both domestic and foreign sources, for U.S. manufactured durable goods.


GVI Forex john  12:01:39 GMT - 05/04/2010  
Short on details on bomb scares. Fueling flight to safety USD demand ??


GVI Forex john  11:56:17 GMT - 05/04/2010  
Two bomb scares in London.


GVI Forex john  11:46:19 GMT - 05/04/2010  
Total Open Interest in the EURO FX contract Monday ended at 242,231 -1,283 contracts. My data feed is now back on. During the hiatus, the number of positions seem to have spiked higher.


GVI Forex john  11:35:57 GMT - 05/04/2010  
 
U.K. PMI mfg data...


GVI Forex john  11:34:59 GMT - 05/04/2010  
 
Earlier China PMI...


GVI Forex john  10:06:19 GMT - 05/04/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Markets Back in Action

10:00 GMT- May 4 (global-view.com)  Virtually all markets are back today with the exception of Japan, which is nearing the end of the Golden Week holidays. The focus of many remains on Greece, as national legislatures are in the process of approving

MORE





GVI Forex john  20:31:06 GMT - 05/03/2010  
Data @ 3:30 GMT
Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Decision
+25bp rate hike widely expected


Often a major events for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.




GVI Forex john  19:21:43 GMT - 05/03/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Active Despite Holidays

20:00 GMT- May 3 (global-view.com)  Many centers were closed Monday due to a carry though of May Day observances. Reduced participation today was probably been a godsend as it has gave traders markets a chance to digest the Greek bailout. The plan is for $146 bln over the next three years

MORE





GVI Forex john  14:45:57 GMT - 05/03/2010  
May 3 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Tuesday will see a holiday in Japan. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike its cash rate target early by 25bp to 4.50%. In Europe, U.K. manufacturing PMI data are due. Eurozone PPI data are also awaited. In North America, U.S. Pending Homes Sales, Factory Orders and API data are awaited.

 

 

TUESDAY

 

 

0:00

JA

Holiday

n/a

n/a

3:30

AU

RBA (4.25%)

0.25

unch

8:30

UK

Apr MFG PMI

57.4

57.2

9:00

EZ

Mar PPI mm

0.70%

0.10%

9:00

EZ

Mar PPI yy

0.90%

-0.50%

14:00

US

Mar Pnd Homes

3.00%

8.20%

14:00

US

Mar Factory Ords

0.10%

0.60%

20:30

US

API Energy

n/a

n/a



GVI Forex john  14:22:53 GMT - 05/03/2010  
 
U.S.manufacturing PMI very strong. Close to as high as it ever gets.


nyc 14:02:27 GMT - 05/03/2010  
Solid ISM PMI 60.4, new orders, employment, prices up, inventories down


GVI Forex john  13:47:44 GMT - 05/03/2010  
Data @ 14:00 GMT

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

Been Running at a strong level and expected to remain so.


Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.



GVI Forex john  12:48:55 GMT - 05/03/2010  
 
Tame core PCE


GVI Forex john  09:55:47 GMT - 05/03/2010  
 
Earlier:
Swiss PMI remains very strong


GVI Forex john  09:55:24 GMT - 05/03/2010  
 
Earlier: Flash EZ mfg unrevised


GVI Forex john  09:43:15 GMT - 05/03/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Active Partial Holiday Session

10:00 GMT- May 3 (global-view.com) A Monday holiday in many centers today has probably been a godsend for many as it has given markets a chance to digest the Greek bailout plan today.

MORE








Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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