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GVI Forex john  16:51:44 GMT - 08/13/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Curious Trade

18:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 13, 2010  Friday was another strange session. The USD continued to press higher despite data. Early on, German 2Q10 was a stronger than expected 2.2% q/q. German quarterly GDP data is not annualized as is the case for the U.S.  

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GVI Forex john  15:06:33 GMT - 08/13/2010  

 

Aug 13 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Japanese GDP early Monday. In Europe, Eurozone CPI (HICP) data are due. In North America, the Empire PMI, Monthly TIC flows and the NAHB index are slated.

 

 

 

SUNDAY

 

 

23:50

JA

GDP pa 2Q10r

2.30%

5.00%

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

9:00

EZ

HICP x-f&e yy Jul

1.00%

0.90%

9:00

EZ

HICP yy Jul

1.70%

1.40%

12:30

US

Empire PMI Aug

5

5.1

14:00

US

TIC data Jun

n/a

n/a

14:00

US

NAHB Index Aug

15

14

 

 




GVI Forex john  12:47:29 GMT - 08/13/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Advance retail sales nothing to write home about...


GVI Forex john  12:46:48 GMT - 08/13/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
CPI in line...


GVI Forex john  12:29:07 GMT - 08/13/2010  
S&P futures leading EURUSD correlation trades are on.


GVI Forex john  12:24:46 GMT - 08/13/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier EZ 2Q10 GDP as expected.


GVI Forex john  11:35:02 GMT - 08/13/2010  
Data @ 12:30 GMT

U.S. Retail Sales

Retail Sales are usually a broad measure of the retail sale of consumer durable and non-durables. It is used by analysts to gauge the strength of consumer consumption.

IMPACT: In most economies, the consumer sector is the largest sector of the economy. Central banks watch retail sales to measure the strength of the economy.


U.S. Consumer Price Index
The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as “core” inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.

Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.




GVI Forex john  11:15:42 GMT - 08/13/2010  
USDJPY pivot = 85.62 (close to current spot)
Resistance 1 = 86.21 (HOD 86.29)
Support 1 = 85.20 (85.00 Japan line in the sand)



GVI Forex john  11:11:35 GMT - 08/13/2010  
Despite all the hoopla about German GDP today, the EURUSD is below its 1.2847 pivot. Keep an eye on that point as it will set the tone of the markets.

Support 1 = 1.2763
Resistance 1 = 1.2913 (HOD so far 1.2906).

Wide neutral range today.



GVI Forex john  11:00:45 GMT - 08/13/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3063	87.38	1.0737	1.5826	1.0545
Res 2	1.2997	86.71	1.0677	1.5771	1.0520
Res 1	1.2913	86.29	1.0587	1.5673	1.0472
					
Pivot	1.2847	85.62	1.0527	1.5618	1.0447
					
Sup 1	1.2763	85.20	1.0437	1.5520	1.0399
Sup 2	1.2697	84.53	1.0377	1.5465	1.0374
Sup 3	1.2613	84.11	1.0287	1.5367	1.0326

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8327	112.63	1.3811	0.9095
Res 2	0.8297	111.77	1.3739	0.9051
Res 1	0.8265	110.96	1.3604	0.9003		
				
Pivot	0.8235	110.10	1.3532	0.8959

Sup 1	0.8203	109.29	1.3397	0.8911
Sup 2	0.8173	108.43	1.3325	0.8867
Sup 3	0.8141	107.62	1.3190	0.8819



GVI Forex john  10:58:55 GMT - 08/13/2010  




GVI Forex john  09:43:47 GMT - 08/13/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Active Trade

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 13, 2010  German 2Q10 was a stronger than expected 2.2% q/q today. Keep in mind their quarterly GDP data is not annualized 

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GVI Forex  john  20:07:17 GMT - 08/12/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3063	87.38	1.0737	1.5826	1.0545
Res 2	1.2997	86.71	1.0677	1.5771	1.0520
Res 1	1.2913	86.29	1.0587	1.5673	1.0472
					
Pivot	1.2847	85.62	1.0527	1.5618	1.0447
					
Sup 1	1.2763	85.20	1.0437	1.5520	1.0399
Sup 2	1.2697	84.53	1.0377	1.5465	1.0374
Sup 3	1.2613	84.11	1.0287	1.5367	1.0326

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8327	112.63	1.3811	0.9095
Res 2	0.8297	111.77	1.3739	0.9051
Res 1	0.8265	110.96	1.3604	0.9003		
				
Pivot	0.8235	110.10	1.3532	0.8959

Sup 1	0.8203	109.29	1.3397	0.8911
Sup 2	0.8173	108.43	1.3325	0.8867
Sup 3	0.8141	107.62	1.3190	0.8819



GVI Forex john  18:26:41 GMT - 08/12/2010  




GVI Forex john  18:01:01 GMT - 08/12/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Consolidation

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 12, 2010  The focus of forex trading Thursday was neither risk on or risk off. Dealers are still trying to pick up the pieces following 

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GVI Forex john  15:40:32 GMT - 08/12/2010  

 

Aug 12 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major data Friday. In Europe, Eurozone trade and revised GDP data are due. In North America, U.S. retail sales, CPI , the University of Michigan Survey and Business Inventories are slated.

 

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

9:00

EZ

Trade EURb Jun

-0.3

-3.4

9:00

EZ

GDP qq 2Qr

0.70%

0.20%

9:00

EZ

GDP yy 2Qr

1.50%

0.60%

12:30

US

Retail Sls Jul

0.50%

-0.50%

12:30

US

R/S x-auto Jul

0.40%

-0.10%

12:30

US

core CPI Jul

0.30%

-0.10%

12:30

US

CPI mm Jul

0.20%

0.20%

13:55

US

U Mich Sent Augp

69.4

67.8

14:00

US

Bus Inv Jun

0.30%

0.10%

 

 




GVI Forex john  12:38:54 GMT - 08/12/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
No light at the end of the tunnel in weekly jobless data...

Weekly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for seven-year history



GVI Forex john  11:28:19 GMT - 08/12/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT
Weekly jobless data
initial claims seen at 465K vs. 479K


Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.




GVI Forex john  11:14:18 GMT - 08/12/2010  
Re pivot points today, support and resistance levels each day are based on the previous day ranges, so they may be skewed out too far in some cases due to some wide ranges on Wednesday. In some cases, e.g. USD/JPY, they look reasonable.


GVI Forex john  11:06:10 GMT - 08/12/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3421	86.37	1.0765	1.6058	1.0686
Res 2	1.3305	85.93	1.0684	1.5962	1.0580
Res 1	1.3095	85.63	1.0631	1.5822	1.0515
					
Pivot	1.2979	85.19	1.0550	1.5726	1.0409
					
Sup 1	1.2769	84.89	1.0497	1.5586	1.0344
Sup 2	1.2653	84.45	1.0416	1.5490	1.0238
Sup 3	1.2443	84.15	1.0363	1.5350	1.0173



Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8395	114.85	1.3996	0.9235
Res 2	0.8358	113.76	1.3910	0.9184
Res 1	0.8286	111.85	1.3770	0.9083
								
Pivot	0.8249	110.76	1.3684	0.9032
							
Sup 1	0.8177	108.85	1.3544	0.8931
Sup 2	0.8140	107.76	1.3458	0.8880
Sup 3	0.8068	105.85	1.3318	0.8779


GVI Forex john  11:05:16 GMT - 08/12/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  10:45:13 GMT - 08/12/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
AUD down following weaker than expected Australian jobs report earlier. Specifically it was the up-tick in the unemployment rate and the break down in full-time vs. part-time jobs that was the issue


GVI Forex john  09:49:26 GMT - 08/12/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Risk Off Day?

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 12, 2010 So far it is unclear if Thursday will pan out to be yet another risk off session. Dealers are still trying to pick up the 

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GVI Forex  john  20:21:02 GMT - 08/11/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3421	86.37	1.0765	1.6058	1.0686
Res 2	1.3305	85.93	1.0684	1.5962	1.0580
Res 1	1.3095	85.63	1.0631	1.5822	1.0515
					
Pivot	1.2979	85.19	1.0550	1.5726	1.0409
					
Sup 1	1.2769	84.89	1.0497	1.5586	1.0344
Sup 2	1.2653	84.45	1.0416	1.5490	1.0238
Sup 3	1.2443	84.15	1.0363	1.5350	1.0173



Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8395	114.85	1.3996	0.9235
Res 2	0.8358	113.76	1.3910	0.9184
Res 1	0.8286	111.85	1.3770	0.9083
								
Pivot	0.8249	110.76	1.3684	0.9032
							
Sup 1	0.8177	108.85	1.3544	0.8931
Sup 2	0.8140	107.76	1.3458	0.8880
Sup 3	0.8068	105.85	1.3318	0.8779


GVI Forex john  20:18:39 GMT - 08/11/2010  




GVI Forex john  19:44:13 GMT - 08/11/2010  

The Daily Forex View

USD Unexpectedly Soars

(Global-View.com) Aug 11, 2010 Quite a day in forex. Some dealers were blindsided by budding new credit problems in Europe. Reportedly, the ECB 

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GVI Forex  john  16:14:50 GMT - 08/11/2010  
From same G-V table. you might want to use standard deviations on Bollinger Bands on some pairs today.
Bollinger	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
20d Sdev	0.0164	0.85	0.0065	0.0280	0.0102
					
3 Std Dev	1.3519	89.26	1.0673	1.6421	1.0647
2 Std Dev	1.3355	88.41	1.0608	1.6142	1.0545
1 Std Dev	1.3191	87.56	1.0543	1.5862	1.0443
					
20day Avg	1.3026	86.70	1.0478	1.5582	1.0342
					
1 Std Dev	1.2862	85.85	1.0413	1.5303	1.0240
2 Std Dev	1.2697	85.00	1.0348	1.5023	1.0138
3 Std Dev	1.2533	84.15	1.0283	1.4743	1.0036


GVI Forex john  16:06:26 GMT - 08/11/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3417	87.04	1.0731	1.6138	1.0495
Res 2	1.3326	86.64	1.0674	1.6024	1.0442
Res 1	1.3258	85.99	1.0576	1.5940	1.0377
					
Pivot	1.3167	85.59	1.0519	1.5826	1.0324
					
Sup 1	1.3099	84.94	1.0421	1.5742	1.0259
Sup 2	1.3008	84.54	1.0364	1.5628	1.0206
Sup 3	1.2940	83.89	1.0266	1.5544	1.0141


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8415	114.95	1.4026	0.9290
Res 2	0.8389	114.37	1.3975	0.9228
Res 1	0.8352	113.47	1.3898	0.9184
								
Pivot	0.8326	112.89	1.3847	0.9122
								
Sup 1	0.8289	111.99	1.3770	0.9078
Sup 2	0.8263	111.41	1.3719	0.9016
Sup 3	0.8226	110.51	1.3642	0.8972


GVI Forex john  16:02:46 GMT - 08/11/2010  




GVI Forex john  15:08:05 GMT - 08/11/2010  

 

Aug 11 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see key Australian employment data. Revisions to Japanese Industrial Output are due as well. In Europe, Eurozone industrial production data are due. In North America, weekly jobless claims and import prices are slated. The U.S. will also see a 30-yr auction.

 

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

Jobs k Jul

20

45.9

0:30

AU

Rate Jul

5.10%

5.10%

4:30

JA

Ind Out Junr

n/a

0.10%

9:00

EZ

Ind Prod mm Jun

0.60%

0.90%

9:00

EZ

Ind Prod yy Jun

0.70%

9.40%

12:30

US

Imp Prices Jul

0.40%

-1.30%

12:30

US

WKInit Claims k

465

479

12:30

US

WKConClaims m

4.54

4.537

17:00

TRY

TRY 30-yr

n/a

n/a

 

 




GVI Forex john  13:42:20 GMT - 08/11/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Third pivot support level in EURUSD 1.2940.


GVI Forex john  12:41:02 GMT - 08/11/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Trade Gap much larger than expected. Exports down and imports up.


GVI Forex john  11:25:31 GMT - 08/11/2010  
Data @ 12:30 GMT
U.S. and Canada Merchandise Trade


Broad Definition: Merchandise trade is trade in goods only, not services, and excludes capital transfers and foreign investments. Exports are total exports; they include both domestically-produced goods and re-exports, which constitute imports of goods which are warehoused here, then re-exported. Imports are general imports, which measure total arrivals of goods. The. Balance of trade is defined as total exports minus general imports.

IMPACT: Trade figures used to be viewed as the most important statistic for the forex market. It goes to proper valuation of the exchange rate, but can also reflect relative demand for goods. A trade deficit is a net deduction from GDP, while a surplus is an addition.



Richland QC Mailman  11:18:17 GMT - 08/11/2010  
Trend for the past 2 days favouring the USD. But at this point, i think it is worth to take some contra-trend trading for euro, gbp, aussie and even the swissie. It has reached very attractive levels to go long.



GVI Forex john  11:15:29 GMT - 08/11/2010  
Pivot point Support 2 in EUR/USD 1.3008 (see below).


GVI Forex john  11:13:34 GMT - 08/11/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3417	87.04	1.0731	1.6138	1.0495
Res 2	1.3326	86.64	1.0674	1.6024	1.0442
Res 1	1.3258	85.99	1.0576	1.5940	1.0377
					
Pivot	1.3167	85.59	1.0519	1.5826	1.0324
					
Sup 1	1.3099	84.94	1.0421	1.5742	1.0259
Sup 2	1.3008	84.54	1.0364	1.5628	1.0206
Sup 3	1.2940	83.89	1.0266	1.5544	1.0141


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8415	114.95	1.4026	0.9290
Res 2	0.8389	114.37	1.3975	0.9228
Res 1	0.8352	113.47	1.3898	0.9184
								
Pivot	0.8326	112.89	1.3847	0.9122
								
Sup 1	0.8289	111.99	1.3770	0.9078
Sup 2	0.8263	111.41	1.3719	0.9016
Sup 3	0.8226	110.51	1.3642	0.8972


GVI Forex john  11:12:04 GMT - 08/11/2010  


GVI Forex john  09:53:50 GMT - 08/11/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Adjusting Markets

(Global-View.com) Aug 11, 2010 It seems that the markets were not prepared for the Fed decision on Tuesday. No one had expected a rate change so the rate 

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GVI Forex  john  20:30:55 GMT - 08/10/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3417	87.04	1.0731	1.6138	1.0495
Res 2	1.3326	86.64	1.0674	1.6024	1.0442
Res 1	1.3258	85.99	1.0576	1.5940	1.0377
					
Pivot	1.3167	85.59	1.0519	1.5826	1.0324
					
Sup 1	1.3099	84.94	1.0421	1.5742	1.0259
Sup 2	1.3008	84.54	1.0364	1.5628	1.0206
Sup 3	1.2940	83.89	1.0266	1.5544	1.0141


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8415	114.95	1.4026	0.9290
Res 2	0.8389	114.37	1.3975	0.9228
Res 1	0.8352	113.47	1.3898	0.9184
								
Pivot	0.8326	112.89	1.3847	0.9122
								
Sup 1	0.8289	111.99	1.3770	0.9078
Sup 2	0.8263	111.41	1.3719	0.9016
Sup 3	0.8226	110.51	1.3642	0.8972


GVI Forex john  20:28:12 GMT - 08/10/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:


GVI Forex john  19:56:46 GMT - 08/10/2010  
EURUSD following S&P post-Fed.


Rexburg Stubbs  19:22:04 GMT - 08/10/2010  
Any thoughts?

What's good for ST is at the expense of something even greater LT.

The release is highly orchestrated. they know how to pull strings but to interpret the release into something useful is like pushing on a string.
Wall Street 19:13 GMT August 10, 2010


Wall Street 19:13:30 GMT - 08/10/2010  
Well I was half right earlier. The Fed did downgrade its economic outlook. I was right on that.

They did more than I expected as the Fed in essence pledge to stop draining excess liquidity from the system for an indefinite time period. I assume that means at a minimum until year end and possibly beyond. interest rates are now on hold indefinitely.

Bottom line
-- good for bonds short-term
-- good for equities
-- bad for USD
-- good for commodities

Any thoughts??



GVI Forex john  19:04:13 GMT - 08/10/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Key Fed Decision 

Until today, the path of policy was be aimed at removing excess ease from the system and returning to normality. Now we are back in a policy framework that 

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GVI Forex john  15:33:22 GMT - 08/10/2010  

 

Aug 10 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Japanese machinery orders and wholesale prices. A slew of Chinese data are due as well. In Europe, U.K. jobs data and the BOE inflation report will be released  In North America, weekly mortgage data, trade statistics and energy data are slated. The U.S. will also see a 10-yr auction. Canadian trade data are slated.

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

23:50

JA

Mach Ords Jun

5.50%

-9.10%

23:50

JA

CGPI mm Jul

0.10%

-0.40%

23:50

JA

CGPI yy Jul

0.10%

0.50%

2:00

CN

CPI yy Jun

3.30%

2.90%

2:00

CN

Ind Out

13.20%

13.70%

2:00

CN

Retail Sales yy

18.40%

18.30%

8:30

UK

Avg Earn 3m yy Jun

1.10%

2.70%

8:30

UK

Claimant Count k Jul

-16.5

-20.8

10:30

UK

Inflation Report

n/a

n/a

11:00

US

WK Mortgage Stats

n/a

n/a

12:30

CA

Trade C$bn Jun

-0.3

-0.5

12:30

US

Trade bn Jun

-42.9

-42.3

14:30

US

EIA Crude mn

-1.6

-2.8

14:30

US

EIA Distillate mn

1.3

0.728

14:30

US

EIA Gasoline mn

0.1

2.18

14:30

US

EIA Cap Util

90.80%

91.20%

17:00

TRY

TRY 3-yr

n/a

n/a

 

 




Wall Street 14:24:38 GMT - 08/10/2010  
EURUSD and EURJPY (if course) pretty closely linked to S&P today. It might be equities are telling us not to look for much from the Fed this afternoon? Im expecting the FOMC to downgrade the economic outlook but to do do nothing of substance about it.


GVI Forex john  13:11:24 GMT - 08/10/2010  


Wall Street 12:07:22 GMT - 08/10/2010  
The pressure on the Fed to do SOMETHING today has to be intense. At a minimum to keep equity markets on an even keel they must give the appearance that they are doing something.

Strong action should help equities and drive EURUSD higher. A disappointing outcome should hurt equities and drive EURUSD lower.

I think today's decision and policy statement could set the tone of the markets for the balance of the year, so this time whatever they decide matters. I see a lot of room for disappointment today.


GVI Forex john  11:56:13 GMT - 08/10/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Fed Decision @ 18:15 GMT

Preview from Lloyds TSB Weekly on the GVI Blog


"Friday’s disappointing payrolls report has added to the excitement and uncertainty around this week’s FOMC interest rate decision. Recent leaks, added to comments from Fed officials, indicate a decent chance that the FOMC could decide to take further measures to support the economy on Tuesday. The most likely change appears to be the reinvestment of cash received from maturing holdings of mortgage backed securities (MBS) into additional MBS or Treasuries, but other options are also available.

On balance, we do not expect a change to policy at this meeting, as it appears too premature given signs that growth has sustained into the current quarter (both ISM surveys were above expectations in July and showed expansion), however we would not be surprised should it happen.


Lloyds Weekly



GVI Forex john  11:35:30 GMT - 08/10/2010  

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Note EURUSD testing support level 2 (1.3159) in the pivots. A decisive move through Support or Resistance Levels 2 in the pivot calculation starts to qualify as a big move.


GVI Forex john  11:17:22 GMT - 08/10/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
other pivots...
Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8381	114.60	1.4039	0.9245
Res 2	0.8359	114.29	1.3960	0.9225
Res 1	0.8336	113.91	1.3914	0.9194
								
Pivot	0.8314	113.60	1.3835	0.9174
								
Sup 1	0.8291	113.22	1.3789	0.9143
Sup 2	0.8269	112.91	1.3710	0.9123
Sup 3	0.8246	112.53	1.3664	0.9092


GVI Forex john  11:16:31 GMT - 08/10/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3371	86.75	1.0675	1.6070	1.0336
Res 2	1.3339	86.35	1.0586	1.6034	1.0317
Res 1	1.3281	86.10	1.0537	1.5968	1.0293
					
Pivot	1.3249	85.70	1.0448	1.5932	1.0274
					
Sup 1	1.3191	85.45	1.0399	1.5866	1.0250
Sup 2	1.3159	85.05	1.0310	1.5830	1.0231
Sup 3	1.3101	84.80	1.0261	1.5764	1.0207


GVI Forex john  11:15:26 GMT - 08/10/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  11:00:05 GMT - 08/10/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
U. S. Data @ 12:30 GMT
U.S. Quarterly Productivity


Productivity measures output from a production process per unit of input. Labor productivity is typically measured as a ratio of output per labor-hour.



GVI Forex john  09:46:35 GMT - 08/10/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Fed Decision Day 

10:00 GMT- Aug 10 (global-view.com) Today saw no surprises for the Bank of Japan as they left policy unchanged. Concerns about deflation in Japan persist 

MORE





GVI Forex john  21:56:59 GMT - 08/09/2010  
Bank of Japan Policy Decision. Time uncertain.

With Rates Virtually at Zero. No Rate Changes are seen. Keep an eye on their economic assessment


Often a major event for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.



GVI Forex  john  20:37:15 GMT - 08/09/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
other pivots...
Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8381	114.60	1.4039	0.9245
Res 2	0.8359	114.29	1.3960	0.9225
Res 1	0.8336	113.91	1.3914	0.9194
								
Pivot	0.8314	113.60	1.3835	0.9174
								
Sup 1	0.8291	113.22	1.3789	0.9143
Sup 2	0.8269	112.91	1.3710	0.9123
Sup 3	0.8246	112.53	1.3664	0.9092


GVI Forex  john  20:35:03 GMT - 08/09/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3371	86.75	1.0675	1.6070	1.0336
Res 2	1.3339	86.35	1.0586	1.6034	1.0317
Res 1	1.3281	86.10	1.0537	1.5968	1.0293
					
Pivot	1.3249	85.70	1.0448	1.5932	1.0274
					
Sup 1	1.3191	85.45	1.0399	1.5866	1.0250
Sup 2	1.3159	85.05	1.0310	1.5830	1.0231
Sup 3	1.3101	84.80	1.0261	1.5764	1.0207


GVI Forex john  20:31:31 GMT - 08/09/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  18:03:36 GMT - 08/09/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Fed Decision Tuesday 

20:00 GMT- Aug 9 (global-view.com) There has been a fair amount of discussion Monday on GVI Forex about what the Fed will decide Tuesday and 

MORE





GVI Forex john  14:43:14 GMT - 08/09/2010  

 

Aug 9 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see the BOJ decision at an unspecified time. In Europe, the U.K. trade balance is due. German trade data are always a highlight.  In North America, wholesale inventories are due early and the latest API data are release late. The latest Fed decision is awaited as well.

 

4:30

JA

BOJ (0.10%)

unch

unch

8:30

UK

Trade GBP b Jun

-4.02

-8.06

12:30

US

Productivity 2Q

0.40%

2.80%

14:00

US

Whsl Inv Jun

0.60%

0.50%

18:15

Fed

Fed Rates

unch

unch

20:30

US

API Energy

n/a

n/a

 

 




GVI Forex  john  12:58:15 GMT - 08/09/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Note below that major USD spots are very close to pivots based on Fiday range and close. Suggests wait and see posture by traders.


GVI Forex john  12:38:13 GMT - 08/09/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3536	87.25	1.0652	1.6189	1.0497
Res 2	1.3435	86.73	1.0580	1.6095	1.0402
Res 1	1.3361	86.06	1.0478	1.6028	1.0337
					
Pivot	1.3260	85.54	1.0406	1.5934	1.0242
					
Sup 1	1.3186	84.87	1.0304	1.5867	1.0177
Sup 2	1.3085	84.35	1.0232	1.5773	1.0082
Sup 3	1.3011	83.68	1.0130	1.5706	1.0017


GVI Forex john  12:32:38 GMT - 08/09/2010  
Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8393	115.05	1.3941	0.9312
Res 2	0.8366	114.39	1.3894	0.9266
Res 1	0.8343	113.92	1.3840	0.9227
								
Pivot	0.8316	113.26	1.3793	0.9181
								
Sup 1	0.8293	112.79	1.3739	0.9142
Sup 2	0.8266	112.13	1.3692	0.9096
Sup 3	0.8243	111.66	1.3638	0.9057


GVI Forex john  12:30:42 GMT - 08/09/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex  john  11:34:17 GMT - 08/09/2010  
Fed Decision due Tuesday @ 18:15 GMT

Preview from Lloyds TSB Weekly on the GVI Blog


"Friday’s disappointing payrolls report has added to the excitement and uncertainty around this week’s FOMC interest rate decision. Recent leaks, added to comments from Fed officials, indicate a decent chance that the FOMC could decide to take further measures to support the economy on Tuesday. The most likely change appears to be the reinvestment of cash received from maturing holdings of mortgage backed securities (MBS) into additional MBS or Treasuries, but other options are also available.

On balance, we do not expect a change to policy at this meeting, as it appears too premature given signs that growth has sustained into the current quarter (both ISM surveys were above expectations in July and showed expansion), however we would not be surprised should it happen.


Lloyds Weekly


GVI Forex john  09:45:09 GMT - 08/09/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Waiting for Fed 

10:00 GMT- Aug 9 (global-view.com)  The headline event early this week will be the Fed policy decision on Tuesday. Some sort of downgrade to the economic 

MORE





GVI Forex john  22:25:00 GMT - 08/08/2010  
Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8393	115.05	1.3941	0.9312
Res 2	0.8366	114.39	1.3894	0.9266
Res 1	0.8343	113.92	1.3840	0.9227
								
Pivot	0.8316	113.26	1.3793	0.9181
								
Sup 1	0.8293	112.79	1.3739	0.9142
Sup 2	0.8266	112.13	1.3692	0.9096
Sup 3	0.8243	111.66	1.3638	0.9057


GVI Forex john  22:24:08 GMT - 08/08/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3536	87.25	1.0652	1.6189	1.0497
Res 2	1.3435	86.73	1.0580	1.6095	1.0402
Res 1	1.3361	86.06	1.0478	1.6028	1.0337
					
Pivot	1.3260	85.54	1.0406	1.5934	1.0242
					
Sup 1	1.3186	84.87	1.0304	1.5867	1.0177
Sup 2	1.3085	84.35	1.0232	1.5773	1.0082
Sup 3	1.3011	83.68	1.0130	1.5706	1.0017


GVI Forex john  22:23:15 GMT - 08/08/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex  john  20:18:26 GMT - 08/06/2010  
Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8393	115.05	1.3941	0.9312
Res 2	0.8366	114.39	1.3894	0.9266
Res 1	0.8343	113.92	1.3840	0.9227
								
Pivot	0.8316	113.26	1.3793	0.9181
								
Sup 1	0.8293	112.79	1.3739	0.9142
Sup 2	0.8266	112.13	1.3692	0.9096
Sup 3	0.8243	111.66	1.3638	0.9057


GVI Forex  john  20:18:23 GMT - 08/06/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3536	87.25	1.0652	1.6189	1.0497
Res 2	1.3435	86.73	1.0580	1.6095	1.0402
Res 1	1.3361	86.06	1.0478	1.6028	1.0337
					
Pivot	1.3260	85.54	1.0406	1.5934	1.0242
					
Sup 1	1.3186	84.87	1.0304	1.5867	1.0177
Sup 2	1.3085	84.35	1.0232	1.5773	1.0082
Sup 3	1.3011	83.68	1.0130	1.5706	1.0017


GVI Forex john  20:16:28 GMT - 08/06/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  16:10:53 GMT - 08/06/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

U.S./Canadian Job Trends

16:00 GMT- Aug 6 (global-view.com)  U.S.  and Canadian jobs reports released early in North America were both disappointing. The U.S. report lacked any 

MORE





GVI Forex john  14:44:07 GMT - 08/06/2010  

 

Aug 6 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Japanese Current Account data.  In Europe, German trade data are always a highlight.  In North America, no key Canadian or U.S. data are due.

 

 

 

SUNDAY

 

 

23:50

JA

Cur Acct Jun

n/a

-8.10%

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

6:00

DE

Trade EURb Jun

12.6

10.6

 

 




GVI Forex john  14:09:46 GMT - 08/06/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Canada Ivey PMI weaker than predicted.


GVI Forex john  13:21:59 GMT - 08/06/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 14:00 GMT

Canadian Ivey PMI
Purchasing Managers Index

Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.



GVI Forex  john  12:46:42 GMT - 08/06/2010  
SNAPSHOT
Check out yield on 2-yr note
	Last	chg	ytd
3M lbr	0.411	-1 	16.1
US-2Y	0.514	-2 	-62.6
US-3Y	0.757	-4 	-104.3
US-5Y	1.513	-6 	-116.7
US-7Y	2.224	-5 	-102.6
US-10Y	2.865	-4 	-96.5
US-30Y	4.042	-2 	-31.8


GVI Forex john  12:40:21 GMT - 08/06/2010  
Refresh page to update chart.


GVI Forex john  12:36:50 GMT - 08/06/2010  
Soft figures in line with other data recently...

Monthly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for more than 10-yr history



GVI Forex Jay  12:14:42 GMT - 08/06/2010  
Friday, August 06, 2010 8:10:05 AM
(US) Preview: July change in Nonfarm payrolls and change in manufacturing payrolls due at 08:30ET (12:30 GMT)
- Change in Nonfarm Payroll: -65K expected versus -125K prior (Note the range of estimates are from -160K to +10K)
- Change in Private payrolls: +90Ke v +83K prior (Range of analyst estimates from +20K to 150K)
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +13Ke expected versus +9K prior (Note the range of estimate are from flat to +45K).... (TTN)


GVI Forex john  11:48:46 GMT - 08/06/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
additional pairs....
Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8374	114.89	1.3987	0.9230
Res 2	0.8349	114.42	1.3934	0.9202
Res 1	0.8323	113.72	1.3861	0.9174
								
Pivot	0.8298	113.25	1.3808	0.9146
								
Sup 1	0.8272	112.55	1.3735	0.9118
Sup 2	0.8247	112.08	1.3682	0.9090
Sup 3	0.8221	111.38	1.3609	0.9062


GVI Forex john  11:47:04 GMT - 08/06/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3349	87.04	1.0661	1.6040	1.0281
Res 2	1.3291	86.76	1.0601	1.5985	1.0234
Res 1	1.3235	86.27	1.0531	1.5933	1.0201
					
Pivot	1.3177	85.99	1.0471	1.5878	1.0154
					
Sup 1	1.3121	85.50	1.0401	1.5826	1.0121
Sup 2	1.3063	85.22	1.0341	1.5771	1.0074
Sup 3	1.3007	84.73	1.0271	1.5719	1.0041


GVI Forex john  11:45:46 GMT - 08/06/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex Jay  11:19:27 GMT - 08/06/2010  
RTRS forecast is -65,000 for headline NFP and +90,000 private payrolls excluding census workers


GVI Forex john  11:10:22 GMT - 08/06/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
U.S. Employment Report Preview -- @ 12:30 GMT

"...It is a key week for US data, culminating with the publication of July payrolls report. The reversal of temporary hiring related to Census 2010 is expected to result in the second successive month of falling payrolls in July.

We look for a decline of 55,000, coming on the back of a fall of 125,000 in June. However, particular interest will be paid to the change in private payrolls, which we expect to be +120,000 – the highest for two months but still well below April (241,000). The unemployment rate is forecast to edge up 0.1% to 9.6% in July, while average earnings growth is likely to have remained subdued..."

Source: Lloyds Weekly blog posted every Monday on Global-view




U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Non-Farm Payroll Employment is a monthly estimate of the number of payroll jobs at all nonfarm business establishments and government agencies. Information is also provided on the average number of hours worked per week and average hourly and weekly earnings.

The rate of unemployment is released along with this report.

Impact: Growth of employment and hours worked provide important information about the current and likely future pace of overall economic growth. Trends in average hourly earnings provide information about supply and demand conditions in labor markets, which may provide signals about the overall level of resource utilization in the economy.



GVI Forex john  11:06:18 GMT - 08/06/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Weaker than expected...


GVI Forex john  11:02:29 GMT - 08/06/2010  
CDA jobs -9,300 rate 8.0%


GVI Forex john  10:22:14 GMT - 08/06/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @11:00 GMT
Canadian Employment Data / Unemployment Rate
Could impact markets as Bank of Canada policy tightening has slowed


Employment is a monthly estimate of the number of payroll jobs and government agencies. The rate of unemployment is released along with this report.

Impact: Growth of employment provides important information about the current and likely future pace of overall economic growth and future monetary policy. Most analysts prefer to watch the employment data rather than the unemployment rate, which is also impacted by changes to the labor force (denominator of the ratio).

Other statistics watched are the breakdown between full and part-time jobs and the labor participation rate.



GVI Forex john  09:35:27 GMT - 08/06/2010  

The Daily Forex View

U.S./Canadian Jobs Due

10:00 GMT- Aug 6 (global-view.com) All markets are gearing up for U.S.  and Canadian jobs reports early today in North America. In the U.S., expectations are for 

MORE





GVI Forex john  20:57:33 GMT - 08/05/2010  
Note: exact same pivot in USDJPY (85.99) today (Thursday as on Wednesday.


GVI Forex  john  20:51:58 GMT - 08/05/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
additional pairs....
Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8374	114.89	1.3987	0.9230
Res 2	0.8349	114.42	1.3934	0.9202
Res 1	0.8323	113.72	1.3861	0.9174
								
Pivot	0.8298	113.25	1.3808	0.9146
								
Sup 1	0.8272	112.55	1.3735	0.9118
Sup 2	0.8247	112.08	1.3682	0.9090
Sup 3	0.8221	111.38	1.3609	0.9062


GVI Forex  john  20:31:49 GMT - 08/05/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3349	87.04	1.0661	1.6040	1.0281
Res 2	1.3291	86.76	1.0601	1.5985	1.0234
Res 1	1.3235	86.27	1.0531	1.5933	1.0201
					
Pivot	1.3177	85.99	1.0471	1.5878	1.0154
					
Sup 1	1.3121	85.50	1.0401	1.5826	1.0121
Sup 2	1.3063	85.22	1.0341	1.5771	1.0074
Sup 3	1.3007	84.73	1.0271	1.5719	1.0041


GVI Forex john  20:28:18 GMT - 08/05/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  18:18:43 GMT - 08/05/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

July Jobs Awaited

20:00 GMT- Aug 5 (global-view.com) There were no major surprises from the ECB and BOE policy announcements on Thursday. Both kept 

MORE





GVI Forex john  17:11:24 GMT - 08/05/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
U.S. Employment Report Preview -- Friday @ 12:30 GMT

"...It is a key week for US data, culminating with the publication of July payrolls report. The reversal of temporary hiring related to Census 2010 is expected to result in the second successive month of falling payrolls in July.

We look for a decline of 55,000, coming on the back of a fall of 125,000 in June. However, particular interest will be paid to the change in private payrolls, which we expect to be +120,000 – the highest for two months but still well below April (241,000). The unemployment rate is forecast to edge up 0.1% to 9.6% in July, while average earnings growth is likely to have remained subdued..."

Source: Lloyds Weekly blog posted every Monday on Global-view





GVI Forex john  16:02:36 GMT - 08/05/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3392	87.39	1.0485	1.6091	1.0320
Res 2	1.3326	87.03	1.0449	1.6029	1.0296
Res 1	1.3278	86.42	1.0419	1.5986	1.0267
					
Pivot	1.3212	86.06	1.0383	1.5924	1.0243
					
Sup 1	1.3164	85.45	1.0353	1.5881	1.0214
Sup 2	1.3098	85.09	1.0317	1.5819	1.0190
Sup 3	1.3050	84.48	1.0287	1.5776	1.0161


GVI Forex john  15:42:46 GMT - 08/05/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  15:22:03 GMT - 08/05/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:

 

Aug 5 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see the Reserve Bank of Australia policy statement and Japanese leading indicators. In Europe, Swiss employment data are due along with U.K. industrial Output data.  German Industrial output is awaited as well. due.  In North America,  Canadian and U.S. employment data are due along with the Ivey PMI.

 

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

00:30

AU

RBA Policy Statement

n/a

n/a

5:00

JA

Lead Ind Jun

n/a

-3.00%

5:45

CH

Unemploy Jul

3.90%

3.90%

8:30

UK

Core PPI yy Jul

4.50%

4.80%

8:30

UK

Ind Out mm Jun

0.20%

0.70%

8:30

UK

Ind Out yy Jun

2.00%

2.60%

8:30

UK

Mfg Out mm Jun

0.40%

0.30%

8:30

UK

Mfg Out yy Jun

4.00%

4.30%

10:00

DE

Ind Output Jun

0.70%

2.60%

11:00

CA

Jobs k Jul

15

93.2

11:00

CA

Rate Jul

7.90%

7.90%

11:00

US

Jobs k Jul

-60

-125

12:30

US

Rate Jul

9.60%

9.50%

12:30

CA

Ivey PMI Jul

55

58.9

 

 




GVI Forex john  12:41:48 GMT - 08/05/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
More poor data. Bad seasonal adjustment factors the excuse today...
Weekly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for seven-year history



GVI Forex  john  12:08:53 GMT - 08/05/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Additional pairs...
Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD	GBP/JPY
Res 3	0.8334	114.95	1.4046	0.9289	139.09
Res 2	0.8321	114.34	1.3957	0.9236	138.21
Res 1	0.8300	113.94	1.3907	0.9202	137.63
					
Pivot	0.8287	113.33	1.3818	0.9149	136.75
						
Sup 1	0.8266	112.93	1.3768	0.9115	136.17
Sup 2	0.8253	112.32	1.3679	0.9062	135.29
Sup 3	0.8232	111.92	1.3629	0.9028	134.71




GVI Forex john  11:58:11 GMT - 08/05/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT
Weekly jobless data
Initial claims seen 455K vs 457K


Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.




GVI Forex john  11:49:56 GMT - 08/05/2010  
ECB keeps policies unchanged.


GVI Forex john  11:38:04 GMT - 08/05/2010  
ECB Decision/Press Conference Preview

"With the EU bank ‘stress tests’ behind us, the focus this week returns to regular ECB monetary policy where we look for the main refinancing rate to remain on hold at 1%. And in all likelihood, despite the tests being generally well-received by financial markets, Jean-Claude Trichet will repeat that the ECB continues to be in a mode of ‘unlimited liquidity supply'..."


Source: Lloyds Weekly blog on Global-view


GVI Forex john  11:01:42 GMT - 08/05/2010  

OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
BOE policy unchanged as expected.


Mtl JP  10:50:47 GMT - 08/05/2010  
john 10:02 - from your calendar:
UK BOE Rates (0.50%) unch unch
-
means there is only one way to trade the BoE release:
- IF they surprise the market pundits.


GVI Forex john  10:38:14 GMT - 08/05/2010  

OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
Decision @ 11:45 GMT. Press Conference @ 12:30 GMT
Central Bank Policy Decision
No rate Changes expected


Often a major event for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.


ECB Press Conference @ 12:30 GMT
An important component of the ECB policy decision. Live Video broadcast.



GVI Forex john  10:02:07 GMT - 08/05/2010  

OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
Decision @ 11:00 GMT
BOE Policy Decision
No rate changes Expected


Often a major event for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.


GVI Forex john  09:56:05 GMT - 08/05/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3392	87.39	1.0485	1.6091	1.0320
Res 2	1.3326	87.03	1.0449	1.6029	1.0296
Res 1	1.3278	86.42	1.0419	1.5986	1.0267
					
Pivot	1.3212	86.06	1.0383	1.5924	1.0243
					
Sup 1	1.3164	85.45	1.0353	1.5881	1.0214
Sup 2	1.3098	85.09	1.0317	1.5819	1.0190
Sup 3	1.3050	84.48	1.0287	1.5776	1.0161


GVI Forex john  09:54:52 GMT - 08/05/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  09:37:08 GMT - 08/05/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

ECB, BOE and Weekly Jobs

10:00 GMT- Aug 5 (global-view.com) The focus early today in North American hours will be the BOE and ECB policy decisions. No rate change is expected 

MORE





tokyo rana  01:42:00 GMT - 08/05/2010  
GVI Forex john 20:50 GMT August 4, 2010
thanx for kind post..my ex is very short..and i can be wrong and im often wrong but my view un changed...lets see...best regards


GVI Forex john  20:50:02 GMT - 08/04/2010  
rana- Ive been in this business long enough to realize you could be right. There are no sure things in forex. I try to take this one day at a time. A wise trader taught me about 30 years ago that you never can trust a central bank. They are not on your side. All the best!


tokyo rana  20:44:31 GMT - 08/04/2010  
GVI Forex john 20:33 GMT August 4, 2010
many thanx...ithink thats why go below 85 bcoz peoples think it will not break barriers are just barriers break of 85 more real than 95...best regards,


GVI Forex john  20:33:11 GMT - 08/04/2010  
Rana- Tokyo has repeatedly made it clear that it does not want USDJPY below 85.00. If they are going to support that price, odds are they will before we get there.


tokyo rana  20:24:05 GMT - 08/04/2010  
GVI Forex john 20:22 GMT August 4, 2010
dear john,wat danger?kindly tellme...regards


GVI Forex john  20:22:06 GMT - 08/04/2010  
Looking at the pivot points as of today's close. The 85.99 (86.00) pivot in USDJPY jumps put at me now that we are in the danger zone with the BOJ.


GVI Forex  john  20:16:43 GMT - 08/04/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3329	87.74	1.0770	1.6062	1.0347
Res 2	1.3284	87.07	1.0664	1.6014	1.0309
Res 1	1.3222	86.66	1.0593	1.5954	1.0241
					
Pivot	1.3177	85.99	1.0487	1.5906	1.0203
					
Sup 1	1.3115	85.58	1.0416	1.5846	1.0135
Sup 2	1.3070	84.91	1.0310	1.5798	1.0097
Sup 3	1.3008	84.50	1.0239	1.5738	1.0029


GVI Forex john  20:14:44 GMT - 08/04/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  18:23:42 GMT - 08/04/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Weekly Jobless Data Awaited

20:00 GMT- Aug 4 (global-view.com) The ADP private jobs report released early on Wednesday saw an as expected 42,000 advance in private jobs. The data provided 

MORE





GVI Forex  john  16:53:55 GMT - 08/04/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3392	87.39	1.0485	1.6091	1.0320
Res 2	1.3326	87.03	1.0449	1.6029	1.0296
Res 1	1.3278	86.42	1.0419	1.5986	1.0267
					
Pivot	1.3212	86.06	1.0383	1.5924	1.0243
					
Sup 1	1.3164	85.45	1.0353	1.5881	1.0214
Sup 2	1.3098	85.09	1.0317	1.5819	1.0190
Sup 3	1.3050	84.48	1.0287	1.5776	1.0161


GVI Forex  john  16:50:56 GMT - 08/04/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  15:02:46 GMT - 08/04/2010  

 

Aug 4 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major data. In Europe, German Industrial orders ate due.  Later the latest BOE and ECB monetary policy decisions are due. In North America, U.S. weekly jobless claims are due. Also weekly natural gas inventories are slated.

 

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

10:00

DE

Ind Ord mm Jun

1.50%

-0.50%

11:00

UK

BOE Rates (0.50%)

unch

unch

11:45

EZ

ECB Rates (1.00%)

unch

unch

12:30

EZ

ECB Webcast

n/a

n/a

12:30

US

WKInit Claims k

455

457

12:30

US

WKConClaims m

4.52

4.565

15:00

US

Nat Gas bcf

35

28

 



GVI Forex  john  14:25:08 GMT - 08/04/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 14:30 GMT
EIA- The Department of Energy (DOE survey)


EIA Survey comes out Wednesday morning. The DOE survey is more closely watched and generally seen as more accurate than the API data on Tuesday.


GVI Forex john  14:07:04 GMT - 08/04/2010  
 
ISM better mo/mo but still off recent highs


GVI Forex john  13:38:43 GMT - 08/04/2010  
Data @ 14:00 GMT
Purchasing Managers Index – Manufacturing and Service - plus Regional PMIs
Market sees 53.00. Focus on jobs sub-component.


Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.


GVI Forex john  12:25:09 GMT - 08/04/2010  
ADP data did not tell us much.


nyc ws  12:24:58 GMT - 08/04/2010  
ADP survey seeing a relief reaction.


GVI Forex john  12:23:48 GMT - 08/04/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:

Click on chart for more than 10-yr history



GVI Forex john  12:16:43 GMT - 08/04/2010  
ADP +42K just about dead on market expectations.


GVI Forex john  11:14:42 GMT - 08/04/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:15 GMT
U.S. ADP National Employment Report
Market expects +35,000 gain in private jobs


The ADP National Private Employment Report is a measure of nonfarm private employment, based on aggregated and anonymous payroll data. The report attempts to provide additional timely and accurate estimates of short-term movements in the national labor markets ADP pays 1-in-6 private sector employees in the United States across a broad range of industries, firm sizes, and geographies.

The data (after revisions) tend to track the government data over time, although on any given month there can be significant discrepancies. The ADP report does not include government employees.





GVI Forex john  10:46:16 GMT - 08/04/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3392	87.39	1.0485	1.6091	1.0320
Res 2	1.3326	87.03	1.0449	1.6029	1.0296
Res 1	1.3278	86.42	1.0419	1.5986	1.0267
					
Pivot	1.3212	86.06	1.0383	1.5924	1.0243
					
Sup 1	1.3164	85.45	1.0353	1.5881	1.0214
Sup 2	1.3098	85.09	1.0317	1.5819	1.0190
Sup 3	1.3050	84.48	1.0287	1.5776	1.0161


GVI Forex john  10:44:43 GMT - 08/04/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  10:02:52 GMT - 08/04/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier Service PMIs. U.K. downtrend worrisome?


GVI Forex john  09:59:49 GMT - 08/04/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier Service PMIs. EZ flat.


GVI Forex john  09:44:08 GMT - 08/04/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Waiting for Jobs

10:00 GMT- Aug 4 (global-view.com) The key focus of trade today is the ADP private jobs report. These data recently have become a little more accurate, and 

MORE





GVI Forex  john  20:25:21 GMT - 08/03/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3392	87.39	1.0485	1.6091	1.0320
Res 2	1.3326	87.03	1.0449	1.6029	1.0296
Res 1	1.3278	86.42	1.0419	1.5986	1.0267
					
Pivot	1.3212	86.06	1.0383	1.5924	1.0243
					
Sup 1	1.3164	85.45	1.0353	1.5881	1.0214
Sup 2	1.3098	85.09	1.0317	1.5819	1.0190
Sup 3	1.3050	84.48	1.0287	1.5776	1.0161


GVI Forex  john  20:23:42 GMT - 08/03/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  18:03:24 GMT - 08/03/2010  

The Daily Forex View

USD Slumps

20:00 GMT- Aug 3 (global-view.com) One key focus of trade on Tuesday was back on speculation that the Fed would soon be engaging in a second round of 

MORE





GVI Forex john  17:38:06 GMT - 08/03/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3363	87.33	1.0592	1.6175	1.0377
Res 2	1.3279	87.11	1.0535	1.6041	1.0337
Res 1	1.3223	86.78	1.0464	1.5965	1.0284
					
Pivot	1.3139	86.56	1.0407	1.5831	1.0244
					
Sup 1	1.3083	86.23	1.0336	1.5755	1.0191
Sup 2	1.2999	86.01	1.0279	1.5621	1.0151
Sup 3	1.2943	85.68	1.0208	1.5545	1.0098


GVI Forex john  15:57:59 GMT - 08/03/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  14:31:10 GMT - 08/03/2010  

 

Aug 3 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Australian trade data. In Europe, EZ and U.K. Service PMI data are due.  EZ retail sales are slated as well.  In North America, U.S. weekly mortgage statistics, ADP Private jobs and the ISM Service PMI are due. Also weekly energy inventories are slated.

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

.:00:30

AU

Trade A$bln Jun

1.8

1.645

7:58

EZ

SVC PMI Jul

56

56

8:30

UK

SVC PMI Jul

54.4

54.4

9:00

EZ

Retail Sls mm Jun

0.10%

0.20%

9:00

EZ

Retail Sls yy Jun

1.00%

1.00%

11:00

US

WK Mortgage Stats

n/a

n/a

12:15

US

ADP Jobs k Jul

35

13

14:00

US

SVC PMI Jul

53

53.8

14:30

US

EIA Crude mn

-1

7.31

14:30

US

EIA Distillate mn

1.1

0.091

14:30

US

EIA Gasoline mn

-0.7

0.931

14:30

US

EIA Cap Util

90.00%

90.60%

 

 

 



GVI Forex john  14:22:28 GMT - 08/03/2010  
Pending homes sales are usually a good predictor of the most important housing report (existing homes sales). Looks to me like last month's lousy data has been confirmed.


GVI Forex john  14:11:20 GMT - 08/03/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Pending Homes Sales look pretty grim for future data...


GVI Forex john  13:09:18 GMT - 08/03/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 14:00 GMT
Factory Orders (Revised Advance Durable Goods)

Durable good new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. The advance report is an early estimate of durable goods orders. Two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the Factory Orders report. Department of Commerce; BEA.


Pending Homes Sales
The Pending Homes sales index is produced monthly by the NAR. Pending Home Sales become Existing-Home Sales one-to-two months later.

The index derived from Pending Home Sales is used to predict Existing Home Sales, which is the most important U.S. housing statistic.




GVI Forex john  12:43:39 GMT - 08/03/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Core PCE contained...


GVI Forex john  11:29:37 GMT - 08/03/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT

Personal Income

Personal income is defined as the income that is received by persons from participation in production, from both government and business transfer payments, and from government interest (which is treated like a transfer payment). It is calculated as the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and transfer payments to persons, less personal contributions for social insurance.

U.S. Core PCE price index
The Core PCE price index is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy.

IMPACT: Core PCE is said to be the preferred inflation measure of the Fed and therefore is a very significant release in that it can influence policy. It is thought the Fed targets core PCE loosely between 2.0% and 3.0%.





GVI Forex john  11:19:13 GMT - 08/03/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3363	87.33	1.0592	1.6175	1.0377
Res 2	1.3279	87.11	1.0535	1.6041	1.0337
Res 1	1.3223	86.78	1.0464	1.5965	1.0284
					
Pivot	1.3139	86.56	1.0407	1.5831	1.0244
					
Sup 1	1.3083	86.23	1.0336	1.5755	1.0191
Sup 2	1.2999	86.01	1.0279	1.5621	1.0151
Sup 3	1.2943	85.68	1.0208	1.5545	1.0098


GVI Forex john  10:35:51 GMT - 08/03/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  10:04:31 GMT - 08/03/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
Earlier Swiss CPI tame..


GVI Forex john  09:48:23 GMT - 08/03/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Continues to Slump

10:00 GMT- Aug 3 (global-view.com) The USD has continued to work its way lower as legacy short EURUSD positions continue gradually to be unwound. One 

MORE





GVI Forex  john  20:28:41 GMT - 08/02/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3363	87.33	1.0592	1.6175	1.0377
Res 2	1.3279	87.11	1.0535	1.6041	1.0337
Res 1	1.3223	86.78	1.0464	1.5965	1.0284
					
Pivot	1.3139	86.56	1.0407	1.5831	1.0244
					
Sup 1	1.3083	86.23	1.0336	1.5755	1.0191
Sup 2	1.2999	86.01	1.0279	1.5621	1.0151
Sup 3	1.2943	85.68	1.0208	1.5545	1.0098


GVI Forex john  20:26:43 GMT - 08/02/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  19:24:40 GMT - 08/02/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

USD Following Stocks

20:00 GMT- Aug 2 (global-view.com) The USD has started of the new week on the back foot as the lead EURUSD relationship was following the lead of 

MORE





GVI Forex john  16:06:45 GMT - 08/02/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  15:17:32 GMT - 08/02/2010  
The USD has started of the new week on the back foot as the lead EURUSD relationship is following the lead of equity prices higher. Overlay charts show this relationship very clearly.


GVI Forex john  15:00:22 GMT - 08/02/2010  

 

Aug 2 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Australian retail sales statistics and a Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision. The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. In Europe, Swiss CPI, EZ PPI and trade data are awaited. In North America, U.S. Personal income statistics, pending homes sales, factory orders and weekly API energy data are due.  

 

 

 

TUESDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

Retail Trade 2Q

0.80%

0.10%

0:30

AU

Retail Sales Jun

0.30%

0.20%

0:30

AU

RBA (4.50%)

4.50%

unch

7:15

CH

CPI mm Jul

-0.50%

-0.40%

17:15

CH

CPI yy Jul

0.70%

0.50%

9:00

EZ

Trade EURb Jun

n/a

-3.4

9:00

EZ

Jun PPI mm

0.40%

0.30%

9:00

EZ

Jun PPI yy

3.10%

3.10%

12:30

US

Core PCE mm Jun

0.10%

0.20%

12:30

US

Per Inc Jun

0.20%

0.40%

14:00

US

Pnd Hms Jun

3.70%

-30.00%

14:00

US

Factory Ords Jun

-0.30%

-1.40%

20:30

US

API Energy

n/a

n/a

 

 

 



GVI Forex john  14:09:23 GMT - 08/02/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
ISM Mfg PMI 56.2 unchanged, but better than forecast..


GVI Forex john  11:12:52 GMT - 08/02/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3216	87.90	1.0557	1.5934	1.0451
Res 2	1.3155	87.42	1.0511	1.5828	1.0413
Res 1	1.3104	86.92	1.0456	1.5765	1.0340
					
Pivot	1.3043	86.44	1.0410	1.5659	1.0302
					
Sup 1	1.2992	85.94	1.0355	1.5596	1.0229
Sup 2	1.2931	85.46	1.0309	1.5490	1.0191
Sup 3	1.2880	84.96	1.0254	1.5427	1.0118


GVI Forex john  11:11:30 GMT - 08/02/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

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USD

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AUD

GVI Charts

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GBP

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GVI Forex john  11:02:06 GMT - 08/02/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier Swiss MANUFACTURING PMI strong reading.



GVI Forex john  11:00:50 GMT - 08/02/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier U.K. MANUFACTURING PMI weaker.



GVI Forex john  10:58:50 GMT - 08/02/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier E-Z MANUFACTURING PMI slight revision to flash estimate.



GVI Forex john  10:54:34 GMT - 08/02/2010  
 
Chinese Manufacturing PMI earlier. Lackluster data.


GVI Forex john  09:58:44 GMT - 08/02/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Soft USD Tone

10:00 GMT- Aug 2 (global-view.com) The USD is heading into North America Forex trading with a soft tone, but not out of bounds within recent ranges. European 

MORE





GVI Forex john  20:08:52 GMT - 08/01/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3216	87.90	1.0557	1.5934	1.0451
Res 2	1.3155	87.42	1.0511	1.5828	1.0413
Res 1	1.3104	86.92	1.0456	1.5765	1.0340
					
Pivot	1.3043	86.44	1.0410	1.5659	1.0302
					
Sup 1	1.2992	85.94	1.0355	1.5596	1.0229
Sup 2	1.2931	85.46	1.0309	1.5490	1.0191
Sup 3	1.2880	84.96	1.0254	1.5427	1.0118


GVI Forex john  20:07:32 GMT - 08/01/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

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USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex  john  20:35:39 GMT - 07/30/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3216	87.90	1.0557	1.5934	1.0451
Res 2	1.3155	87.42	1.0511	1.5828	1.0413
Res 1	1.3104	86.92	1.0456	1.5765	1.0340
					
Pivot	1.3043	86.44	1.0410	1.5659	1.0302
					
Sup 1	1.2992	85.94	1.0355	1.5596	1.0229
Sup 2	1.2931	85.46	1.0309	1.5490	1.0191
Sup 3	1.2880	84.96	1.0254	1.5427	1.0118


GVI Forex  john  20:34:19 GMT - 07/30/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

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USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  16:45:32 GMT - 07/30/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

FRIDAY: Soft U.S. Data

13:00 GMT- July 30 (global-view.com) Forex Trading centered around the release of the first estimate of 2Q10 GDP early Friday. the data were even weaker 

MORE





GVI Forex john  14:44:11 GMT - 07/30/2010  

 

July 30 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Chinese PMI data. In Europe, EZ, Swiss and U.K. PIM Data are due.  In North America,  U.S. manufacturing PMI and construction data are awaited Canada will be closed for a holiday.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

 

18:30

CN

PMI NBS Jul

51.1

52.1

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

0:00

CA

Holiday

n/a

n/a

7:15

CH

Ret Sls yy Jun

n/a

3.80%

7:30

CH

Mfg PMI Jul

65.1

65.7

7:58

EZ

MFG PMI Jul

56

56.5

8:30

UK

MFG PMI Jul

57

57.5

8:30

UK

SVC PMI Jul

54.4

54.4

14:00

US

MFG PMI Jun

54

56.2

14:00

US

Construction Jun

-0.50%

-0.20%

 



Chicago 13:49:28 GMT - 07/30/2010  
Chi PMI 62.3 --- so much for the rumor


GVI Forex Jay  13:39:54 GMT - 07/30/2010  
From GVI Forex:

Spotforex NY 13:37 GMT July 30, 2010
Headlines and Discussion: Reply
On the back of weaker GDP...market talk of a weaker chicago number with sub 54 noted v 56.0e



Belgrade TD  13:38:54 GMT - 07/30/2010  
just info ... in the GBP data (http://www.global-view.com/gvi3/cpbgbp.htm), missing GBP/USD but is inserted USD/JPY, the GBP/USD data is, anyway, located in the USD table ... it's just a info, only "objection to correct" ... great job


GVI Forex john  13:30:06 GMT - 07/30/2010  
ss- University of Michigan survey is revised over the month so it should not change a lot since this is the final figure. It will be watched more closely than usual this time around because the previous reading was unexpectedly weak.


perth ss  13:19:15 GMT - 07/30/2010  
will this make a monster shift or is it factored in already..forgive my amateur approach...just dont know enough about it
regards


GVI Forex john  13:16:42 GMT - 07/30/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 13:55 GMT-
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment


The University of Michigan Survey is a consumer confidence index published (and revised) over each month. The index is normalized to 100 (December 1964). At least 500 telephone interviews are conducted each month. 50 core questions are asked.


GVI Forex john  13:14:06 GMT - 07/30/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 13:45 GMT
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index


Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.



A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.



GVI Forex john  12:52:20 GMT - 07/30/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
GDP Weaker than expected 1Q10 data revised up. Chart corrected.


GVI Forex john  12:48:59 GMT - 07/30/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier Japanese PMI uninspiring...


GVI Forex john  11:51:05 GMT - 07/30/2010  
Data @ 12:30 GMT

First Estimate of U.S. 2Q10 GDP Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
See 2.5% p.a. (data will be revised a number of times)


The total value of goods and services produced within the borders of a country, regardless of who owns the assets or the nationality of the labor used in producing that output. The growth of output is usually measured in real terms, meaning increases in output due to inflation have been removed.

Importance: One goal (often unstated) of central banks is sustained growth of the economy with full employment and stable prices. Real GDP is the most comprehensive measure of the performance of an economy. By monitoring trends in the overall growth rate as well as the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation, policy makers are able to assess whether the current stance of monetary policy is consistent with its policy goals.

Canadian monthly GDP due as well..



GVI Forex john  10:38:02 GMT - 07/30/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3261	88.30	1.0736	1.5741	1.0490
Res 2	1.3184	87.90	1.0658	1.5701	1.0441
Res 1	1.3134	87.37	1.0532	1.5660	1.0397
					
Pivot	1.3057	86.97	1.0454	1.5620	1.0348
					
Sup 1	1.3007	86.44	1.0328	1.5579	1.0304
Sup 2	1.2930	86.04	1.0250	1.5539	1.0255
Sup 3	1.2880	85.51	1.0124	1.5498	1.0211


GVI Forex john  10:34:53 GMT - 07/30/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

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USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  10:04:18 GMT - 07/30/2010  

OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
St. Louis Fed President Bullard to appear on CNBC for an hour starting in one hour.


GVI Forex john  09:37:23 GMT - 07/30/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Weak Equities

10:00 GMT- July 30 (global-view.com) Comments by St. Louis Fed president Bullard Thursday hard a disproportionately large impact on market sentiment. Bullard has generally been thought to be one of 

MORE





GVI Forex  john  20:12:10 GMT - 07/29/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3261	88.30	1.0736	1.5741	1.0490
Res 2	1.3184	87.90	1.0658	1.5701	1.0441
Res 1	1.3134	87.37	1.0532	1.5660	1.0397
					
Pivot	1.3057	86.97	1.0454	1.5620	1.0348
					
Sup 1	1.3007	86.44	1.0328	1.5579	1.0304
Sup 2	1.2930	86.04	1.0250	1.5539	1.0255
Sup 3	1.2880	85.51	1.0124	1.5498	1.0211


GVI Forex john  20:10:07 GMT - 07/29/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  17:56:21 GMT - 07/29/2010  

OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

EURUSD Gains

20:00 GMT- July 29 (global-view.com)  The USD continued to list lower on Thursday, but might have gotten some support from heavy equity prices. There 

MORE





GVI Forex john  14:50:23 GMT - 07/29/2010  

 

July 29 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see the usual heavy slate of end of month Japanese data on Friday. In Europe, EZ flash CPI data are due, unemployment data as well. The Swiss KOF leading. Indicator is closely followed. In North America, the U.S. will see GDP data, the Chicago PMI and the final University of Michigan survey reading for the month. Canadian GDP data are due as well. .

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

23:15

JA

Mfg PMI Jul

n/a

53.9

23:30

JA

Core CPI yy Jun

-1.10%

-1.20%

23:30

JA

CPI yy Jun

n/a

-0.90%

23:30

JA

Hhld Spend yy Jun

-0.60%

-0.70%

23:30

JA

Unemploy Jun

5.20%

5.20%

23:50

JA

Ind Out Junp

0.20%

0.10%

9:00

EZ

HICP (flash) yy Jul

1.70%

1.40%

9:00

EZ

Unemploy Jun

10.00%

10.00%

9:30

CH

KOF Ind Jul

2.3

2.25

12:30

CA

GDP mm May

0.10%

0.00%

12:30

US

GDP 2Qra

2.50%

2.70%

13:45

US

Chicago PMI Jul

58

59.1

13:55

US

U Mich Sent Julf

67

66.5

 



GVI Forex john  12:42:27 GMT - 07/29/2010  
Its hard for me to look at the weekly jobless stats below for this calendar year and not draw the startling conclusion that things are dead flat.


GVI Forex john  12:39:00 GMT - 07/29/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
Weekly Jobless Claims 457K in line with estimates...

Click on chart for seven-year history



GVI Forex john  11:54:23 GMT - 07/29/2010  
Note below Support 2 in USDJPY 86.76. Low of the day so far has been 86.75. Pivot Points are not a panacea, but they are useful in estimating the scale of prospective moves.


GVI Forex john  11:48:54 GMT - 07/29/2010  

OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3097	88.78	1.0700	1.5717	1.0508
Res 2	1.3069	88.44	1.0661	1.5677	1.0448
Res 1	1.3024	87.94	1.0616	1.5627	1.0417
					
Pivot	1.2996	87.60	1.0577	1.5587	1.0357
					
Sup 1	1.2951	87.10	1.0532	1.5537	1.0326
Sup 2	1.2923	86.76	1.0493	1.5497	1.0266
Sup 3	1.2878	86.26	1.0448	1.5447	1.0235


GVI Forex john  11:46:17 GMT - 07/29/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  11:29:38 GMT - 07/29/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT

Weekly jobless data
Seen stubbornly high


Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.


Canadian Producer Price Index (PPI)

The PPI is a price index designed to measure the level of wholesale prices in a given economy. Its another input into the policy making decisions of central banks.




GVI Forex john  09:53:08 GMT - 07/29/2010  

OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

EURUSD Gaining

10:00 GMT- July 29 (global-view.com)  The USD is trading lower heading into North American activity on Thursday. Economic data and the Beige Book on Wednesday did nothing to dispel concerns about the economy, and economic data from Europe today has been positive.

 MORE





GVI Forex john  21:20:25 GMT - 07/28/2010  
From: G-V Pivot Point table (USD Base)
S-2 in NZD/USD .7013
We show the post rate decision low at .7000??

Pivot points are not perfect, but they provide a uncanny scale estimate of price moves. Well worth adding to your bag of trading tools.


GVI Forex  john  21:00:44 GMT - 07/28/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
RBNZ +25 to 3.00%, as expected.


GVI Forex john  20:20:40 GMT - 07/28/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
RBNZ decision @ 21:00 GMT
Central Bank Policy Decision
See 25bp Cash Rate hike to 3.00%


Often a major events for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.





GVI Forex  john  20:12:04 GMT - 07/28/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3097	88.78	1.0700	1.5717	1.0508
Res 2	1.3069	88.44	1.0661	1.5677	1.0448
Res 1	1.3024	87.94	1.0616	1.5627	1.0417
					
Pivot	1.2996	87.60	1.0577	1.5587	1.0357
					
Sup 1	1.2951	87.10	1.0532	1.5537	1.0326
Sup 2	1.2923	86.76	1.0493	1.5497	1.0266
Sup 3	1.2878	86.26	1.0448	1.5447	1.0235


GVI Forex john  20:10:27 GMT - 07/28/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  18:08:46 GMT - 07/28/2010  

The Daily Forex View

EUR Pivoting 1.30 vs. USD

20:00 GMT- July 28 (global-view.com)  Forex markets were continuing to struggle against EURUSD 1.3000 by mid-session Wednesday in North America. Some were 

 MORE





GVI Forex john  17:54:31 GMT - 07/28/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 18:00 GMT
Fed Beige Book


The Beige Book Report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis.



GVI Forex john  15:06:17 GMT - 07/28/2010  

 

July 28 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see an expected rate hike by the RBNZ later. Subsequently Japanese Retail Sales data are due. In Europe, no major data are slated. In North America, the U.S. will see weekly jobless claims, weekly natural gas statistics and a seven-year note auction. Canadian PPI data are due as well. .

21:00

NZ

RBNZ 2.75%

3.00%

unch

23:50

JA

Retail Sales Jun

3.20%

2.80%

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

12:30

CA

PPI mm Jun

0.00%

0.30%

12:30

CA

PPI yy Jun

1.40%

1.40%

12:30

US

WKInit Claims k

460

464

12:30

US

WKConClaims m

4.5

4.487

14:30

US

Nat Gas bcf

33

51

17:00

TRY

TRY 7-yr

n/a

n/a

 



ldn ldn  12:33:52 GMT - 07/28/2010  
Weaker durable goods orders, fell instead of rise


GVI Forex john  11:52:08 GMT - 07/28/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT
Advance Durable Goods/Factory Orders


Durable good new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. The advance report is an early estimate of durable goods orders. Two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the Factory Orders report. Department of Commerce; BEA.



GVI Forex john  11:23:29 GMT - 07/28/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Much earlier today. Reference excellent input by Sydney Joe yesterday (on GVI Forex). RBA trimmed mean quarterly CPI advanced only 0.5% in the quarter. Recall he said 0.8% was in the middle of market expectations < 0.7% or > 0.9% were the critical levels to watch. The 0.5% reading has reportedly put the RBA on hold for the rest of the year.

The change in interest rate outlook has weighed on the AUD.


GVI Forex  john  10:43:45 GMT - 07/28/2010  
Based on Tuesday Closes
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3139	89.40	1.0823	1.5784	1.0560
Res 2	1.3092	88.68	1.0731	1.5688	1.0478
Res 1	1.3047	88.28	1.0665	1.5637	1.0419
					
Pivot	1.3000	87.56	1.0573	1.5541	1.0337
					
Sup 1	1.2955	87.16	1.0507	1.5490	1.0278
Sup 2	1.2908	86.44	1.0415	1.5394	1.0196
Sup 3	1.2863	86.04	1.0349	1.5343	1.0137


GVI Forex john  10:08:22 GMT - 07/28/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD





GVI Forex john  09:53:54 GMT - 07/28/2010  

The Daily Forex View

EURUSD Pivots 1.3000

10:00 GMT- July 28 (global-view.com)  Forex markets are continuing to look for direction in the dog days of summer. At the moment, the focus remains on equity 

 MORE





Lahore FM  21:28:58 GMT - 07/27/2010  
it is at 0130 gmt et.


Houston et  21:27:24 GMT - 07/27/2010  
John: Isn't Australian CPI due at 01:30 GMT?


GVI Forex john  21:24:27 GMT - 07/27/2010  
Data @ 00:30 GMT
Australian Consumer Price Index

The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as “core” inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.

Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.



GVI Forex john  20:21:09 GMT - 07/27/2010  


GVI Forex john  17:14:43 GMT - 07/27/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Weak U.S. Sentiment Surveys

20:00 GMT- July 27 (global-view.com)  The focus today appears to have been  on flows as we indicated early in the day. Developments on the economic front from 

 MORE





GVI Forex john  14:34:26 GMT - 07/27/2010  

 

July 27 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see key Australian CPI data on Wednesday. In Europe, no major data are due. In North America, the U.S. will see weekly mortgage statistics, Durable Goods orders, weekly energy inventories, a five year note auction and the Fed’s Beige Book. .

 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

CPI q/q 2Q

1.00%

0.90%

0:30

AU

CPI y/y 2Q

3.40%

2.90%

11:00

US

WK Mortgage Stats

n/a

n/a

12:30

US

Dur Goods Jun

0.70%

-1.10%

14:30

US

EIA Crude mn

-1.8

0.36

14:30

US

EIA Distillate mn

1.6

1.1

14:30

US

EIA Gasoline mn

0.6

3.9

14:30

US

EIA Cap Util

90.90%

91.50%

17:00

US

TRY 5-yr

n/a

n/a

18:00

Fed

Beige Book

n/a

n/a

 



GVI Forex john  11:50:28 GMT - 07/27/2010  
Data @ 13:00 GMT

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices


The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measure the residential housing market. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is a broader composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly.

This is yet another measure of the housing industry in the U.S. It is watched because of its accuracy, but the data tend to be too old to impact the markets much.



GVI Forex john  09:51:45 GMT - 07/27/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Focus on Flows

10:00 GMT- July 27 (global-view.com)  The focus today appears to be on flows. As such the rumor mill has been working at full speed. There is chatter the SNB 

 MORE





GVI Forex  john  20:13:46 GMT - 07/26/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD

Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3168	88.33	1.0629	1.5639	1.0451
Res 2	1.3086	88.02	1.0592	1.5580	1.0418
Res 1	1.3041	87.45	1.0535	1.5530	1.0369
					
Pivot	1.2959	87.14	1.0498	1.5471	1.0336
					
Sup 1	1.2914	86.57	1.0441	1.5421	1.0287
Sup 2	1.2832	86.26	1.0404	1.5362	1.0254
Sup 3	1.2787	85.69	1.0347	1.5312	1.0205


GVI Forex john  14:10:46 GMT - 07/26/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
New homes sales. Big downward revision to previous data...


GVI Forex john  13:32:00 GMT - 07/26/2010  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 14:00 GMT

New Home Sales


New Home Sales record sales of U.S. newly constructed residences. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes New Home Sales statistics monthly.



GVI Forex john  11:37:08 GMT - 07/26/2010  
FOREX TRADING TOOLS

FX Rates:

Chart Point Tables:

By Base:

CHF

FX Database

Classic Format

USD

JPY

AUD

GVI Charts

Risk Trades

EUR

GBP

CAD

Pivots  EUR/$  $/JPY	$/CHF	GBP/$
Res 3	1.3159	88.40	1.0750	1.5688
Res 2	1.3063	87.96	1.0657	1.5568
Res 1	1.2986	87.63	1.0595	1.5494
				
Pivot	1.2890	87.19	1.0502	1.5374
				
Sup 1	1.2813	86.86	1.0440	1.5300
Sup 2	1.2717	86.42	1.0347	1.5180
Sup 3	1.2640	86.09	1.0285	1.5106






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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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Mon 27 May 2019
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