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GVI Forex  john  20:23:59 GMT - 09/03/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3009	86.06	1.0349	1.5559	1.0695
Res 2	1.2953	85.64	1.0293	1.5513	1.0632
Res 1	1.2922	85.02	1.0229	1.5484	1.0512
					
Pivot	1.2866	84.60	1.0173	1.5438	1.0449
					
Sup 1	1.2835	83.98	1.0109	1.5409	1.0329
Sup 2	1.2779	83.56	1.0053	1.5363	1.0266
Sup 3	1.2748	82.94	0.9989	1.5334	1.0146


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8407	111.19	1.3374	0.9308
Res 2	0.8378	110.38	1.3269	0.9242
Res 1	0.8357	109.57	1.3187	0.9201
		
Pivot	0.8328	108.76	1.3082	0.9135
			
Sup 1	0.8307	107.95	1.3000	0.9094
Sup 2	0.8278	107.14	1.2895	0.9028
Sup 3	0.8257	106.33	1.2813	0.8987



GVI Forex john  20:23:01 GMT - 09/03/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  16:30:45 GMT - 09/03/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Mixed Economic Data

17:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 3, 2010  The August U.S. non-farm payroll data surprised the markets with a decline in headline number of -54K when a fall of 

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GVI Forex john  14:17:00 GMT - 09/03/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Weak ISM Services. Note U.S. trend (down).


GVI Forex john  12:50:45 GMT - 09/03/2010  
Data @ 14:00 GMT-

See 53.2 vs. 54.3. Keep a close eye on the Employment index subcomponent.

Purchasing Managers Index – Service


Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.




GVI Forex john  12:38:41 GMT - 09/03/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:

Click on chart for more than 10-yr history



GVI Forex john  11:44:52 GMT - 09/03/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment

...Street expectations center around a headline figure of a loss of about -100K jobs in the month. Most will be focused on the private payrolls subcomponent of the report. Estimates are for about -100K in temporary census jobs to have been lost and additionally -25K in state and local employment. The outlook for the private payroll figure is mixed following a small decline in the ADP estimate on Wednesday followed by a strong advance in the ISM manufacturing PMI that same day. In short, there are a wide range of outcomes seen by the market..." --Daily Forex View



Non-Farm Payroll Employment is a monthly estimate of the number of payroll jobs at all nonfarm business establishments and government agencies. Information is also provided on the average number of hours worked per week and average hourly and weekly earnings.

The rate of unemployment is released along with this report.

Impact: Growth of employment and hours worked provide important information about the current and likely future pace of overall economic growth. Trends in average hourly earnings provide information about supply and demand conditions in labor markets, which may provide signals about the overall level of resource utilization in the economy.



GVI Forex john  11:36:39 GMT - 09/03/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Weekly Major Data Item Previews from Lloyds TSB Blog

Fri Sep 3 @ 12:30 GMT US- August non-farm payrolls where we look for a total decline of 100k, albeit with a (modest) rise in private sector jobs. The US labour market remains a concern for the Fed and employers are reluctant to add to payrolls in a still uncertain economic environment.




GVI Forex john  10:38:01 GMT - 09/03/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3074	85.83	1.0325	1.5671	1.0787
Res 2	1.2965	85.24	1.0255	1.5581	1.0721
Res 1	1.2883	84.86	1.0206	1.5517	1.0617
					
Pivot	1.2774	84.27	1.0136	1.5427	1.0551
					
Sup 1	1.2692	83.89	1.0087	1.5363	1.0447
Sup 2	1.2583	83.30	1.0017	1.5273	1.0381
Sup 3	1.2501	82.92	0.9968	1.5209	1.0277


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8404	110.97	1.3252	0.9341
Res 2	0.8366	109.78	1.3148	0.9219
Res 1	0.8325	108.97	1.3078	0.9156
			
Pivot	0.8287	107.78	1.2974	0.9034
		
Sup 1	0.8246	106.97	1.2904	0.8971
Sup 2	0.8208	105.78	1.2800	0.8849
Sup 3	0.8167	104.97	1.2730	0.8786




GVI Forex john  10:36:43 GMT - 09/03/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  10:00:14 GMT - 09/03/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier EZ Flash Services PMI revised up slightly. Running about flat?



GVI Forex john  09:47:16 GMT - 09/03/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
U.K. Services PMI disappoints (51.3). Take a look at the slope of the lines in the manufacturing and services PMI's. U.K. headed for a double-dip?


GVI Forex john  09:29:50 GMT - 09/03/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Mixed U.S. Jobs Forecasts

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 3, 2010  The focus of trade into the long North American weekend is the release of August U.S. non-farm payroll data. Street .

MORE





GVI Forex john  22:09:05 GMT - 09/02/2010  
Don't ignore the data below. Swiss GDP and Retail Sales on Thursday (both very strong) drove the EURCHF thru 1.30.....


GVI Forex john  22:04:29 GMT - 09/02/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
-- Friday Data --
07:15 GMT
Swiss Consumer Price Index

The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as “core” inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.

Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.


07:58 GMT EZ-
08:30 GMT UK-
Purchasing Managers Index – Services

Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.


09:00 GMT EZ- Retail Sales

Retail Sales
Retail Sales are usually a broad measure of the retail sale of consumer durable and non-durables. It is used by analysts to gauge the strength of consumer consumption.

IMPACT: In most economies, the consumer sector is the largest sector of the economy. Central banks watch retail sales to measure the strength of the economy.



GVI Forex john  20:27:53 GMT - 09/02/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Weekly Major Data Item Previews from Lloyds TSB Blog

Fri Sep 3 @ 8:30 GMT UK- Look for a small drop in the services PMI . It is expected to remain at levels consistent with decent, albeit unspectacular, growth.

Fri Sep 3 @ 12:30 GMT US- August non-farm payrolls where we look for a total decline of 100k, albeit with a (modest) rise in private sector jobs. The US labour market remains a concern for the Fed and employers are reluctant to add to payrolls in a still uncertain economic environment.




GVI Forex  john  20:20:45 GMT - 09/02/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2921	85.07	1.0271	1.5552	1.0649
Res 2	1.2884	84.81	1.0228	1.5503	1.0602
Res 1	1.2850	84.53	1.0181	1.5448	1.0566
					
Pivot	1.2813	84.27	1.0138	1.5399	1.0519
					
Sup 1	1.2779	83.99	1.0091	1.5344	1.0483
Sup 2	1.2742	83.73	1.0048	1.5295	1.0436
Sup 3	1.2708	83.45	1.0001	1.5240	1.0400


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8422	109.22	1.3130	0.9205
Res 2	0.8386	108.76	1.3084	0.9163
Res 1	0.8355	108.37	1.3036	0.9140
		
Pivot	0.8319	107.91	1.2990	0.9098
		
Sup 1	0.8288	107.52	1.2942	0.9075
Sup 2	0.8252	107.06	1.2896	0.9033
Sup 3	0.8221	106.67	1.2848	0.9010



GVI Forex john  20:19:26 GMT - 09/02/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  18:56:57 GMT - 09/02/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

U.S. Jobs Data Next

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 2, 2010  The ECB Thursday made no waves as it held rates steady and pledged to continue to provide sufficient liquidity to 

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GVI Forex john  15:57:10 GMT - 09/02/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Sep 2 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major data on Friday. In Europe, EZ and U.K. Service PMI data are due. Also EZ retail sales and the latest Swiss CPI figures are slated. In North America, U.S. monthly jobs and the U.S. Service PMI is slated. Both the U.S. and Canada wil be closed Monday for holidays..

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

7:15

CH

CPI mm Aug

0.10%

-0.70%

7:15

CH

CPI yy Aug

0.40%

0.40%

7:58

EZ

SVC PMI Aug

56.1

55.8

8:30

UK

SVC PMI Aug

52.9

53.1

9:00

EZ

Retail Sls mm Jul

0.20%

0.00%

9:00

EZ

Retail Sls yy Jul

0.60%

0.40%

12:30

US

Jobs k Aug

-100

-131

12:30

US

Rate Aug

9.60%

9.50%

14:00

US

SVC PMI Aug

53.2

54.3




GVI Forex john  14:17:52 GMT - 09/02/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Pending Homes sales bouncing along the bottom.


GVI Forex john  13:04:13 GMT - 09/02/2010  
Data @ 14:00 GMT

Factory Orders (Revision to Advance Durable Goods Orders)


Durable good new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. The advance report is an early estimate of durable goods orders. Two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the Factory Orders report. Department of Commerce; BEA.

The report provides information on the strength of demand, from both domestic and foreign sources, for U.S. manufactured durable goods.

Pending Homes Sales
The Pending Homes sales index is produced monthly by the NAR. Pending Home Sales become Existing-Home Sales one-to-two months later.

The index derived from Pending Home Sales is used to predict Existing Home Sales, which is the most important U.S. housing statistic.



GVI Forex john  12:59:14 GMT - 09/02/2010  
FWIW- Weekly Jobless claims were mixed. After revisions about as expected, but still at an uncomfortably high level. Weekly jobless claims are headed in the wrong way (higher).

BTW- We noted yesterday that revised monthly ADP Private employment data have been showing a similar pattern to the weekly jobless numbers (basically flat) since January.

What this means is that the Fed will have no choice but to continue to pursue a low interest rate policy for the U.S. for the foreseeable future.


GVI Forex john  12:46:07 GMT - 09/02/2010  
Weekly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for seven-year history



GVI Forex john  12:32:23 GMT - 09/02/2010  
jobless 472 K vs. 478K rev prev week.


GVI Forex  john  11:45:17 GMT - 09/02/2010  
ECB unchanged as expected.


GVI Forex john  11:35:59 GMT - 09/02/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT
Weekly jobless data

Market consensus is for a level of weekly jobless claims of 475K (vs.473K a week ago). There is little doubt that the employment situation has deteriorated although volatility in the data makes the weekly call difficult. Use 475K as neutrality for the markets, but note revisions to prior data.


Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.



GVI Forex john  11:15:15 GMT - 09/02/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3074	85.83	1.0325	1.5671	1.0787
Res 2	1.2965	85.24	1.0255	1.5581	1.0721
Res 1	1.2883	84.86	1.0206	1.5517	1.0617
					
Pivot	1.2774	84.27	1.0136	1.5427	1.0551
					
Sup 1	1.2692	83.89	1.0087	1.5363	1.0447
Sup 2	1.2583	83.30	1.0017	1.5273	1.0381
Sup 3	1.2501	82.92	0.9968	1.5209	1.0277


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8404	110.97	1.3252	0.9341
Res 2	0.8366	109.78	1.3148	0.9219
Res 1	0.8325	108.97	1.3078	0.9156
			
Pivot	0.8287	107.78	1.2974	0.9034
		
Sup 1	0.8246	106.97	1.2904	0.8971
Sup 2	0.8208	105.78	1.2800	0.8849
Sup 3	0.8167	104.97	1.2730	0.8786




GVI Forex john  11:14:04 GMT - 09/02/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  10:16:03 GMT - 09/02/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Weekly Major Data Item Previews from Lloyds TSB Blog

Thu Sep 2 @ 11:45 GMT EZ- We look for the ECB’s refinancing rate to stay at 1%, although the meeting is likely to be more notable for the new staff economic projections and the decision on whether to extend its 3-month unlimited liquidity operation beyond the end of September. In terms of data - in contrast to the US – euro area survey indicators broadly continue to surprise on the upside, bolstered by healthy demand for exports.

Fri Sep 3 @ 8:30 GMT UK- Look for a small drop in the services PMI . It is expected to remain at levels consistent with decent, albeit unspectacular, growth.

Fri Sep 3 @ 12:30 GMT US- August non-farm payrolls where we look for a total decline of 100k, albeit with a (modest) rise in private sector jobs. The US labour market remains a concern for the Fed and employers are reluctant to add to payrolls in a still uncertain economic environment.




GVI Forex john  10:01:53 GMT - 09/02/2010  
RE: EUR/CHF discussion yesterday afternoon here. From the "Daily"

"... Swiss 2Q10 GDP (+3.4% y/y vs. +2.7% y/y expected) has given the CHF a lift on its EUR cross. Swiss July retail sales data (+4.8% y/y vs. 1.0% in June) was strong as well..."

EURCHF below 1.30 line at the moment (1.2983). Remains to be seen if it will stay down here.


GVI Forex john  09:50:47 GMT - 09/02/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
ECB @ 11:45 & 12:30 GMT-
Central Bank Policy Decision (11:45 GMT)

Often a major event for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.

ECB Press Conference (12:30 GMT)
An important component of the ECB policy decision. Live Video broadcast.



GVI Forex john  09:38:05 GMT - 09/02/2010  

The Daily Forex View

ECB/Jobless Claims

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 2, 2010 The focus early today is on the ECB decision in a couple of hours. E-Z interest rates are likely to be held steady well into 

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GVI Forex john  22:01:03 GMT - 09/01/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Additional data due in Europe

@ 6:45 GMT Swiss GDP
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The total value of goods and services produced within the borders of a country, regardless of who owns the assets or the nationality of the labor used in producing that output. The growth of output is usually measured in real terms, meaning increases in output due to inflation have been removed.

Importance: One goal (often unstated) of central banks is sustained growth of the economy with full employment and stable prices. Real GDP is the most comprehensive measure of the performance of an economy. By monitoring trends in the overall growth rate as well as the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation, policy makers are able to assess whether the current stance of monetary policy is consistent with its policy goals.


@ 07:15 Swiss Retail Sales
Retail Sales

Retail Sales are usually a broad measure of the retail sale of consumer durable and non-durables. It is used by analysts to gauge the strength of consumer consumption.

IMPACT: In most economies, the consumer sector is the largest sector of the economy. Central banks watch retail sales to measure the strength of the economy.





GVI Forex john  20:51:16 GMT - 09/01/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 00:30 GMT
Australian Merchandise Trade


Broad Definition: Merchandise trade is trade in goods only, not services, and excludes capital transfers and foreign investments. Exports are total exports; they include both domestically-produced goods and re-exports, which constitute imports of goods which are warehoused here, then re-exported. Imports are general imports, which measure total arrivals of goods. The. Balance of trade is defined as total exports minus general imports.

IMPACT: Trade figures used to be viewed as the most important statistic for the forex market. It goes to proper valuation of the exchange rate, but can also reflect relative demand for goods. A trade deficit is a net deduction from GDP, while a surplus is an addition.


GVI Forex john  20:37:33 GMT - 09/01/2010  
Weekly Major Data Item Previews from Lloyds TSB Blog

Thu Sep 2 @ 9:00 GMT EZ- We look for an unchanged outturn of +1.0% quarter-on-quarter for eurozone Q2 GDP, with the recent upward revision to Spanish GDP to - 0.1% quarter-on-quarter from -0.2% previously having only a limited impact.

Thu Sep 2 @ 11:45 GMT EZ- We look for the ECB’s refinancing rate to stay at 1%, although the meeting is likely to be more notable for the new staff economic projections and the decision on whether to extend its 3-month unlimited liquidity operation beyond the end of September. In terms of data - in contrast to the US – euro area survey indicators broadly continue to surprise on the upside, bolstered by healthy demand for exports.

Fri Sep 3 @ 8:30 GMT UK- Look for a small drop in the services PMI . It is expected to remain at levels consistent with decent, albeit unspectacular, growth.

Fri Sep 3 @ 12:30 GMT US- August non-farm payrolls where we look for a total decline of 100k, albeit with a (modest) rise in private sector jobs. The US labour market remains a concern for the Fed and employers are reluctant to add to payrolls in a still uncertain economic environment.




GVI Forex john  20:35:06 GMT - 09/01/2010  
We expect Thursday to be an important day for the USD. Lousy Weekly jobless claims data could undo the positive ISM PMI out today. The EURUSD is likely to follow the S&P. First day of each month is often an important allocation day for new funds. Wait to see how S&P trades Thursday.


GVI Forex  john  20:20:19 GMT - 09/01/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3074	85.83	1.0325	1.5671	1.0787
Res 2	1.2965	85.24	1.0255	1.5581	1.0721
Res 1	1.2883	84.86	1.0206	1.5517	1.0617
					
Pivot	1.2774	84.27	1.0136	1.5427	1.0551
					
Sup 1	1.2692	83.89	1.0087	1.5363	1.0447
Sup 2	1.2583	83.30	1.0017	1.5273	1.0381
Sup 3	1.2501	82.92	0.9968	1.5209	1.0277


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8404	110.97	1.3252	0.9341
Res 2	0.8366	109.78	1.3148	0.9219
Res 1	0.8325	108.97	1.3078	0.9156
			
Pivot	0.8287	107.78	1.2974	0.9034
		
Sup 1	0.8246	106.97	1.2904	0.8971
Sup 2	0.8208	105.78	1.2800	0.8849
Sup 3	0.8167	104.97	1.2730	0.8786




GVI Forex john  20:18:08 GMT - 09/01/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  19:06:49 GMT - 09/01/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Jobless Claims Next

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 1, 2010 The ADP private employment estimate released Wednesday was weaker than suggested and had negative 

MORE





GVI Forex john  15:35:26 GMT - 09/01/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  15:29:23 GMT - 09/01/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Sep 1 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Australian trade data on Thursday. In Europe, Swiss GDP and Retail Sales data are awaited. The  EZ will announce GDP and PPI figures. Also the ECB will hold its monthly meeting. No policy changes are expected.  In North America, weekly jobless claims, pending homes sales and factory orders are slated.  Weekly EIA natural gas inventory data are due.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

Trade A$bln Jul

3.1

3.539

6:45

CH

GDP yy 2Q

2.70%

2.20%

6:45

CH

GDP qq 2Q

0.80%

0.40%

7:15

CH

Ret Sls yy Jul

n/a

0.90%

9:00

EZ

GDP qq 2Qr

1.00%

1.00%

9:00

EZ

GDP yy 2Qr

1.70%

1.70%

9:00

EZ

Jul PPI mm

0.30%

0.30%

9:00

EZ

Jul PPI yy

4.00%

3.00%

11:45

EZ

ECB Rates (1.00%)

unch

unch

12:30

EZ

ECB Webcast

n/a

n/a

12:30

US

WKInit Claims k

475

473

12:30

US

WKConClaims m

4.43

4.456

14:00

US

Pnd Hms Jul

-1

-2.60%

14:00

US

Factory Ords Jul

0.40%

-1.20%

14:30

US

Nat Gas bcf

51

40

 

 




GVI Forex john  14:17:44 GMT - 09/01/2010  
Data @ 14:30 GMT
EIA- The Department of Energy (DOE survey)

EIA Survey comes out Wednesday morning. The DOE survey is more closely watched and generally seen as more accurate than the API data on Tuesday.



GVI Forex john  14:03:20 GMT - 09/01/2010  
ISM Aug Manufacturing PMI 56.3 Vs Jul 55.5


GVI Forex john  13:57:29 GMT - 09/01/2010  
Data @ 14:00 GMT
Purchasing Managers Index – Manufacturing

Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.



GVI Forex john  12:38:37 GMT - 09/01/2010  
fwiw- Note ADP data, give or take a few 10K, has been roughly flat all year. We've seen the same pattern in weekly jobless claims in 2010.


GVI Forex john  12:34:32 GMT - 09/01/2010  
My pleasure!


Savannah ZEUS  12:28:55 GMT - 09/01/2010  
GVI Forex john 12:24 GMT September 1, 2010

Thanks for the rapid delivery! :-)


GVI Forex john  12:24:04 GMT - 09/01/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
Monthly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for more than 10-yr history



Savannah ZEUS  12:23:40 GMT - 09/01/2010  
GVI Forex john 12:17 GMT September 1, 2010

Hi John. Isn't there a pretty close correlation overall with ADP & NFP? Do you happen to have one of those great charts with these two stats?


GVI Forex john  12:17:23 GMT - 09/01/2010  
ADP -10,000. Not a good outcome, but we never seriously trust this statistic.


Mtl JP  12:10:45 GMT - 09/01/2010  
john - important point: "significant discrepancies"

probably best to not trade it unless the release is more than ±50K off the con: 17


GVI Forex john  11:57:05 GMT - 09/01/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:15 GMT
U.S. ADP National Employment Report


The ADP National Private Employment Report is a measure of nonfarm private employment, based on aggregated and anonymous payroll data. The report attempts to provide additional timely and accurate estimates of short-term movements in the national labor markets ADP pays 1-in-6 private sector employees in the United States across a broad range of industries, firm sizes, and geographies.

The data (after revisions) tend to track the government data over time, although on any given month there can be significant discrepancies. The ADP report does not include government employees.



GVI Forex john  10:20:25 GMT - 09/01/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Weekly Major Data Item Previews from Lloyds TSB Blog

Wed Sep 1 @ 14:00 GMT US- August ISM manufacturing survey will attract particular interest after a sharp drop in July’s new orders index. Our ISM manufacturing forecast stands at 54.0.

Thu Sep 2 @ 9:00 GMT EZ- We look for an unchanged outturn of +1.0% quarter-on-quarter for eurozone Q2 GDP, with the recent upward revision to Spanish GDP to - 0.1% quarter-on-quarter from -0.2% previously having only a limited impact.

Thu Sep 2 @ 11:45 GMT EZ- We look for the ECB’s refinancing rate to stay at 1%, although the meeting is likely to be more notable for the new staff economic projections and the decision on whether to extend its 3-month unlimited liquidity operation beyond the end of September. In terms of data - in contrast to the US – euro area survey indicators broadly continue to surprise on the upside, bolstered by healthy demand for exports.

Fri Sep 3 @ 8:30 GMT UK- Look for a small drop in the services PMI. It is expected to remain at levels consistent with decent, albeit unspectacular, growth.

Fri Sep 3 @ 12:30 GMT US- August non-farm payrolls where we look for a total decline of 100k, albeit with a (modest) rise in private sector jobs. The US labour market remains a concern for the Fed and employers are reluctant to add to payrolls in a still uncertain economic environment.




GVI Forex john  10:11:33 GMT - 09/01/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier Chinese PMI stronger just above 50...


GVI Forex john  10:09:13 GMT - 09/01/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier: CH PMI weaker...


GVI Forex john  10:08:27 GMT - 09/01/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier: U.K. PMI weaker...


GVI Forex john  10:06:48 GMT - 09/01/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier: EZ PMI slight revision to flash data...


GVI Forex john  09:42:13 GMT - 09/01/2010  

The Daily Forex View

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Sep 1, 2010 Two pieces of key data are due from the U.S. today. The ADP private employment estimate has been more 

MORE





GVI Forex  john  20:46:11 GMT - 08/31/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2860	85.30	1.0352	1.5590	1.0789
Res 2	1.2801	84.98	1.0307	1.5533	1.0730
Res 1	1.2743	84.47	1.0225	1.5442	1.0693
					
Pivot	1.2684	84.15	1.0180	1.5385	1.0634
					
Sup 1	1.2626	83.64	1.0098	1.5294	1.0597
Sup 2	1.2567	83.32	1.0053	1.5237	1.0538
Sup 3	1.2509	82.81	0.9971	1.5146	1.0501

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD

Res 3	0.8425	109.00	1.3107	0.9047
Res 2	0.8357	108.38	1.3053	0.9002
Res 1	0.8309	107.44	1.2960	0.8953
			
Pivot	0.8241	106.82	1.2906	0.8908
				
Sup 1	0.8193	105.88	1.2813	0.8859
Sup 2	0.8125	105.26	1.2759	0.8814
Sup 3	0.8077	104.32	1.2666	0.8765




GVI Forex john  20:43:38 GMT - 08/31/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  18:13:42 GMT - 08/31/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Active Data Week

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 31, 2010 Tuesday saw mixed data from the U.S. in what will be a busy week for releases. Actually mixed data is an 

MORE





GVI Forex john  17:54:55 GMT - 08/31/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 18:00 GMT
Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC Minutes)


Three weeks after the each FOMC meeting, the Fed releases minutes of that meeting. The minutes provide an in-depth summary of what was discussed at the meeting and list those who voted with the majority and those who dissented.



GVI Forex john  15:21:38 GMT - 08/31/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Weekly Major Data Item Previews from Lloyds TSB Blog

Tues Aug 31 @ 18:00 GMT US- FOMC minutes. Looking for more colour on the Fed’s decision to re-invest the proceeds from agency debt and MBS.

Wed Sep 1 @ 8:30 GMT UK- Look for a small drop in the manufacturing PMI. It is expected to remain at levels consistent with decent, albeit unspectacular, growth.

Wed Sep 1 @ 14:00 GMT US- August ISM manufacturing survey will attract particular interest after a sharp drop in July’s new orders index. Our ISM manufacturing forecast stands at 54.0.

Thu Sep 2 @ 9:00 GMT EZ- We look for an unchanged outturn of +1.0% quarter-on-quarter for eurozone Q2 GDP, with the recent upward revision to Spanish GDP to - 0.1% quarter-on-quarter from -0.2% previously having only a limited impact.

Thu Sep 2 @ 11:45 GMT EZ- We look for the ECB’s refinancing rate to stay at 1%, although the meeting is likely to be more notable for the new staff economic projections and the decision on whether to extend its 3-month unlimited liquidity operation beyond the end of September. In terms of data - in contrast to the US – euro area survey indicators broadly continue to surprise on the upside, bolstered by healthy demand for exports.

Fri Sep 3 @ 8:30 GMT UK- Look for a small drop in the services PMI. It is expected to remain at levels consistent with decent, albeit unspectacular, growth.

Fri Sep 3 @ 12:30 GMT US- August non-farm payrolls where we look for a total decline of 100k, albeit with a (modest) rise in private sector jobs. The US labour market remains a concern for the Fed and employers are reluctant to add to payrolls in a still uncertain economic environment.




GVI Forex john  14:26:25 GMT - 08/31/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Aug 31 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Australian GDP data. In Europe, Swiss, EZ and U.K. mfg PMI data are due. In North America, weekly mortgage Statistics, ADP Jobs, ISM mfg PMI and construction data are slated.  The weekly EIA energy inventory data are due.

 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

GDP qq 2Q

1.00%

0.50%

0:30

AU

1Q GDP yy 2Q

2.90%

2.70%

7:30

CH

Mfg PMI Aug

66

66.9

7:58

EZ

MFG PMI Aug

55

56.7

8:30

UK

MFG PMI Aug

57

57.5

11:00

US

WK Mortgage Stats

n/a

n/a

12:15

US

ADP Jobs k Aug

17

42

14:00

US

MFG PMI Aug

52.8

55.5

14:00

US

Construction Aug

-0.50%

-0.10%

14:30

US

EIA Crude mn

1.3

4.11

14:30

US

EIA Distillate mn

1.1

1.8

14:30

US

EIA Gasoline mn

-0.2

-2.3

14:30

US

EIA Cap Util

87.50%

87.70%




GVI Forex john  13:40:16 GMT - 08/31/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 14:00 GMT
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey


Consumer Confidence Survey is a monthly report detailing consumer attitudes and buying intentions. The Index is calculated on the basis of a 5,000 household survey of consumer opinions on current conditions and future expectations of the economy.




GVI Forex john  13:15:54 GMT - 08/31/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 13:45 GMT
Purchasing Managers Index - Chicago PMI


Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.


GVI Forex john  12:34:39 GMT - 08/31/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 13:00 GMT
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices


The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measure the residential housing market. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is a broader composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly.

This is yet another measure of the housing industry in the U.S. It is watched because of its accuracy, but the data tend to be too old to impact the markets much.



GVI Forex john  11:40:30 GMT - 08/31/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2843	86.87	1.0381	1.5663	1.0764
Res 2	1.2806	86.40	1.0348	1.5622	1.0682
Res 1	1.2734	85.51	1.0303	1.5540	1.0639
					
Pivot >>1.2697	85.04	1.0270	1.5499	1.0557 <<
					
Sup 1	1.2625	84.15	1.0225	1.5417	1.0514
Sup 2	1.2588	83.68	1.0192	1.5376	1.0432
Sup 3	1.2516	82.79	1.0147	1.5294	1.0389


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8273	111.29	1.3266	0.9101
Res 2	0.8245	110.44	1.3206	0.9065
Res 1	0.8217	108.81	1.3102	0.8998

Pivot >>0.8189	107.96	1.3042	0.8962 <<

Sup 1   0.8161	106.33	1.2938	0.8895
Sup 2	0.8133	105.48	1.2878	0.8859
Sup 3	0.8105	103.85	1.2774	0.8792




GVI Forex john  11:39:05 GMT - 08/31/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  11:18:17 GMT - 08/31/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT
Canada Current Account balance


The Current Account balance is the difference between a nation's exports of goods and services and its imports of goods and services. The current account is one of the two primary components of the balance of payments, the other being the capital account. It is called the current account because goods and services are generally consumed in the current period.




GVI Forex john  11:13:36 GMT - 08/31/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Major Data Previews from Lloyds TSB Blog .

Tue Aug 31 @12:30 GMT CA- Canadian GDP is forecast to have moderated from 6.1% quarterly annualised growth in Q1 to 3.3% in Q2, we look for an acceleration in Australian quarterly growth to 1% (up from 0.5% previously), reflecting a surge in public sector investment.

Tues Aug 31 @ 13:00 GMT US- After a wave of poor US housing market data, a decline in annual house price inflation is expected in Tuesday’s Case-Shiller data.

Tues Aug 31 @ 18:00 GMT- US FOMC minutes. Looking for more colour on the Fed’s decision to re-invest the proceeds from agency debt and MBS.

Wed Sep 1 @ 8:30 GMT UK- Look for a small drop in the manufacturing PMI. It is expected to remain at levels consistent with decent, albeit unspectacular, growth.

Wed Sep 1 @ 14:00 GMT US- August ISM manufacturing survey will attract particular interest after a sharp drop in July’s new orders index. Our ISM manufacturing forecast stands at 54.0.




GVI Forex john  09:57:09 GMT - 08/31/2010  

The Daily Forex View

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 31, 2010  Late summer markets seem to continue to lack a central trading theme even though there are a number of items 

MORE





GVI Forex  john  20:21:22 GMT - 08/30/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2843	86.87	1.0381	1.5663	1.0764
Res 2	1.2806	86.40	1.0348	1.5622	1.0682
Res 1	1.2734	85.51	1.0303	1.5540	1.0639
					
Pivot >>1.2697	85.04	1.0270	1.5499	1.0557 <<
					
Sup 1	1.2625	84.15	1.0225	1.5417	1.0514
Sup 2	1.2588	83.68	1.0192	1.5376	1.0432
Sup 3	1.2516	82.79	1.0147	1.5294	1.0389


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8273	111.29	1.3266	0.9101
Res 2	0.8245	110.44	1.3206	0.9065
Res 1	0.8217	108.81	1.3102	0.8998

Pivot >>0.8189	107.96	1.3042	0.8962 <<

Sup 1   0.8161	106.33	1.2938	0.8895
Sup 2	0.8133	105.48	1.2878	0.8859
Sup 3	0.8105	103.85	1.2774	0.8792


GVI Forex john  20:17:46 GMT - 08/30/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  19:55:11 GMT - 08/30/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
Major Data Previews from Lloyds TSB Blog .

Tue Aug 31 @ 9:00 GMT EZ- The ‘flash’ estimate of eurozone CPI inflation for August, where our forecast stands at 1.6%.

Tue Aug 31 @12:30 GMT CA- Canadian GDP is forecast to have moderated from 6.1% quarterly annualised growth in Q1 to 3.3% in Q2, we look for an acceleration in Australian quarterly growth to 1% (up from 0.5% previously), reflecting a surge in public sector investment.

Tues Aug 31 @ 13:00 GMT US- After a wave of poor US housing market data, a decline in annual house price inflation is expected in Tuesday’s Case-Shiller data.

Tues Aug 31 @ 18:00 GMT- US FOMC minutes. Looking for more colour on the Fed’s decision to re-invest the proceeds from agency debt and MBS.

Wed Sep 1 @ 8:30 GMT UK- Look for a small drop in the manufacturing PMI. It is expected to remain at levels consistent with decent, albeit unspectacular, growth.

Wed Sep 1 @ 14:00 GMT US- August ISM manufacturing survey will attract particular interest after a sharp drop in July’s new orders index. Our ISM manufacturing forecast stands at 54.0.




GVI Forex john  19:18:51 GMT - 08/30/2010  

The Daily Forex View

London Holiday 

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 30, 2010  London markets were closed Monday for the late-summer bank holiday, and the London holiday dampened market 

MORE





GVI Forex john  15:31:24 GMT - 08/30/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Major Data Previews from Lloyds TSB Blog .

Tue Aug 31 @ 9:00 GMT EZ- The ‘flash’ estimate of eurozone CPI inflation for August, where our forecast stands at 1.6%.

Tue Aug 31 @12:30 GMT CA- Canadian GDP is forecast to have moderated from 6.1% quarterly annualised growth in Q1 to 3.3% in Q2, we look for an acceleration in Australian quarterly growth to 1% (up from 0.5% previously), reflecting a surge in public sector investment.

Tues Aug 31 @ 13:00 GMT US- After a wave of poor US housing market data, a decline in annual house price inflation is expected in Tuesday’s Case-Shiller data.

Tues Aug 31 @ 18:00 GMT- US FOMC minutes. Looking for more colour on the Fed’s decision to re-invest the proceeds from agency debt and MBS.

Wed Sep 1 @ 8:30 GMT UK- Look for a small drop in the manufacturing PMI. It is expected to remain at levels consistent with decent, albeit unspectacular, growth.

Wed Sep 1 @ 14:00 GMT US- August ISM manufacturing survey will attract particular interest after a sharp drop in July’s new orders index. Our ISM manufacturing forecast stands at 54.0.




GVI Forex john  13:55:46 GMT - 08/30/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Aug 30 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Japanese retail sales and industrial output data. Also Australian Current Account and retail sales data are slated. In Europe, U.K. money supply data are awaited. Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) and unemployment data are slated. In North America, the Case-Shiller index, Chicago PMI Conference Board Survey, and latest Fed Minutes are due. Late in the day, the weekly API energy inventory estimates will be released.

23:50

JA

Retail Sales Jul

3.50%

3.20%

23:50

JA

Ind Out Julp

-0.20%

-1.10%

 

 

TUESDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

C/Act A$bn 2Q

6.5

16.55

0:30

AU

Retail Sales Jul

0.40%

0.20%

8:30

UK

M4 Money Jul

n/a

0.40%

9:00

EZ

HICP (flash) yy Aug

1.60%

1.70%

9:00

EZ

Unemploy Jul

10.00%

10.00%

12:30

CA

GDP mm Jun

0.20%

0.10%

13:00

US

Case-Shil 20 Jun

n/a

0.47%

13:45

US

Chicago PMI Aug

57.5

62.3

14:00

US

CB Confidence Aug

51.6

50.4

18:00

Fed

Fed Minutes

n/a

n/a

20:30

US

API Energy

n/a

n/a




GVI Forex john  12:41:19 GMT - 08/30/2010  
 
Core PCE not an issue.


Europe Theorist  12:33:42 GMT - 08/30/2010  
I just follow the DOW John.....worked so well for the last week or so....


GVI Forex john  12:24:55 GMT - 08/30/2010  
EURUSD correlation to S&P e-mini trade on at the moment.


GVI Forex john  11:10:51 GMT - 08/30/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT

U.S. Personal Income
Personal income is defined as the income that is received by persons from participation in production, from both government and business transfer payments, and from government interest (which is treated like a transfer payment). It is calculated as the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and transfer payments to persons, less personal contributions for social insurance.

U.S. Core PCE price index
The Core PCE price index is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy.

IMPACT: Core PCE is said to be the preferred inflation measure of the Fed and therefore is a very significant release in that it can influence policy. It is thought the Fed targets core PCE loosely between 2.0% and 3.0%.


Canada Current Account balance
The Current Account balance is the difference between a nation's exports of goods and services and its imports of goods and services. The current account is one of the two primary components of the balance of payments, the other being the capital account. It is called the current account because goods and services are generally consumed in the current period.

Canada- Producer Price Index (PPI)
The PPI is a price index designed to measure the level of wholesale prices in a given economy. Its another input into the policy making decisions of central banks.



GVI Forex john  09:42:24 GMT - 08/30/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Newest Japanese Measures

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 30, 2010  Japan made a lot of noise early today about an emergency BOJ meeting and a new stimulus package etc., but the 

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Richland QC Mailman  00:49:42 GMT - 08/30/2010  
In a few minutes, meeting to start. Have already gone on board. I think it will soar later!


Porto Cubriclas  00:07:16 GMT - 08/30/2010  
GVI Forex john 22:08 GMT August 29, 2010
BOJ Gov Shirakawa Press Conference at 0530 GMT following emergency BOJ meeting @ 00:00 GMT.

Started?


GVI Forex john  22:15:40 GMT - 08/29/2010  
Emergency policy ease expected from the BOJ. and special loan program for businesses.


Lahore FM  22:13:16 GMT - 08/29/2010  
there is a possibility that all this ado about nothing WILL come come to nothing.


Lahore FM  22:12:00 GMT - 08/29/2010  
its boj for yen meeting not boj for economy meeting.


GVI Forex  john  22:08:51 GMT - 08/29/2010  
BOJ Gov Shirakawa Press Conference at 0530 GMT following emergency BOJ meeting @ 00:00 GMT.


GVI Forex john  20:10:07 GMT - 08/29/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2886	87.00	1.0397	1.5650	1.0730
Res 2	1.2832	86.24	1.0349	1.5594	1.0689
Res 1	1.2785	85.79	1.0319	1.5556	1.0603
					
Pivot	1.2731	85.03	1.0271	1.5500	1.0562
					
Sup 1	1.2684	84.58	1.0241	1.5462	1.0476
Sup 2	1.2630	83.82	1.0193	1.5406	1.0435
Sup 3	1.2583	83.37	1.0163	1.5368	1.0349


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8289	111.36	1.3281	0.9197
Res 2	0.8261	110.15	1.3200	0.9097
Res 1	0.8234	109.43	1.3156	0.9045
	
Pivot	0.8206	108.22	1.3075	0.8945
			
Sup 1	0.8179	107.50	1.3031	0.8893
Sup 2	0.8151	106.29	1.2950	0.8793
Sup 3	0.8124	105.57	1.2906	0.8741



GVI Forex john  20:08:46 GMT - 08/29/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex  john  20:13:20 GMT - 08/27/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2886	87.00	1.0397	1.5650	1.0730
Res 2	1.2832	86.24	1.0349	1.5594	1.0689
Res 1	1.2785	85.79	1.0319	1.5556	1.0603
					
Pivot	1.2731	85.03	1.0271	1.5500	1.0562
					
Sup 1	1.2684	84.58	1.0241	1.5462	1.0476
Sup 2	1.2630	83.82	1.0193	1.5406	1.0435
Sup 3	1.2583	83.37	1.0163	1.5368	1.0349


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8289	111.36	1.3281	0.9197
Res 2	0.8261	110.15	1.3200	0.9097
Res 1	0.8234	109.43	1.3156	0.9045
	
Pivot	0.8206	108.22	1.3075	0.8945
			
Sup 1	0.8179	107.50	1.3031	0.8893
Sup 2	0.8151	106.29	1.2950	0.8793
Sup 3	0.8124	105.57	1.2906	0.8741



GVI Forex john  20:05:50 GMT - 08/27/2010  




GVI Forex john  17:16:25 GMT - 08/27/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Bernanke

18:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 27, 2010  We were not disappointed by the speech by Fed Chair Bernanke today, but we had not been looking for much. Some 

MORE



GVI Forex john  15:42:34 GMT - 08/27/2010  

Aug 27 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major data early on Monday. In Europe, the U.K. will be closed for the late-summer bank holiday. In North America, U.S. personal income and core PCE data are due. Canada will release the latest PPI data.

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

0:00

UK

Holiday

n/a

n/a

12:30

CA

Cur/Acct C$b 2Q

-10.6

-7.82

12:30

CA

PPI mm Jul

0.70%

-0.90%

12:00

CA

PPI yy Jul

n/a

0.20%

12:30

US

Core PCE mm Jul

n/a

0.00%

12:30

US

Per Inc Jul

n/a

0.00%




GVI Forex john  12:36:32 GMT - 08/27/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
GDP as broadly expected...


Mtl JP  12:07:11 GMT - 08/27/2010  
john // GDP -> value of goods and services produced

not # of units produced but value. should be vulnerable to absence of price-inflation and increasingly jobless consumer.

Preferable to trade reaction after the release rather than risk a bet ahead of it ?


GVI Forex john  11:59:09 GMT - 08/27/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
We saw a saw a top institutional forex guy out of Tokyo this morning. He emphatically blamed the JPY strength on falling U.S. interest rates. See attached chart (from Daily Report twice daily) illustrating this relationship. Note also Forex Forum left sidebar where we update interest rates twice daily.


GVI Forex john  11:27:13 GMT - 08/27/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Major Data previews from Lloyds TSB from GV Blog

Revised 2Q10 U.S. GDP @ 12:30 GMT

Following a record widening in the US trade deficit in June, we expect the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday to be revised down to 1.4% quarterly annualised growth from an originally reported 2.4%. Furthermore, Q3 GDP indicators to date are suggesting that growth could remain muted for some time.




GVI Forex john  11:24:04 GMT - 08/27/2010  
Data @ 12:30 GMT
U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Revision to 2Q10 release


The total value of goods and services produced within the borders of a country, regardless of who owns the assets or the nationality of the labor used in producing that output. The growth of output is usually measured in real terms, meaning increases in output due to inflation have been removed.

Importance: One goal (often unstated) of central banks is sustained growth of the economy with full employment and stable prices. Real GDP is the most comprehensive measure of the performance of an economy. By monitoring trends in the overall growth rate as well as the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation, policy makers are able to assess whether the current stance of monetary policy is consistent with its policy goals.




GVI Forex john  10:39:36 GMT - 08/27/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
ECB President Trichet to speak today at 18:50 GMT at Jackson Hole Symposium


GVI Forex john  10:33:12 GMT - 08/27/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2895	85.36	1.0389	1.5730	1.0676
Res 2	1.2830	85.13	1.0355	1.5664	1.0639
Res 1	1.2782	84.79	1.0293	1.5601	1.0596
					
Pivot	1.2717	84.56	1.0259	1.5535	1.0559
					
Sup 1	1.2669	84.22	1.0197	1.5472	1.0516
Sup 2	1.2604	83.99	1.0163	1.5406	1.0479
Sup 3	1.2556	83.65	1.0101	1.5343	1.0436


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8253	108.97	1.3243	0.9006
Res 2	0.8225	108.49	1.3192	0.8961
Res 1	0.8210	108.03	1.3112	0.8923
	
Pivot	0.8182	107.55	1.3061	0.8878
	
Sup 1	0.8167	107.09	1.2981	0.8840
Sup 2	0.8139	106.61	1.2930	0.8795
Sup 3	0.8124	106.15	1.2850	0.8757


GVI Forex john  10:32:00 GMT - 08/27/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  09:43:54 GMT - 08/27/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
U.K. GDP revised up modestly as expected.


GVI Forex john  09:42:00 GMT - 08/27/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier Japanese deflation persists...


GVI Forex john  09:27:24 GMT - 08/27/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Bernanke and GDP Today

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 27, 2010  The best we can hope for from Fed Chair Bernanke at 14:00 GMT today in Jackson Hole is only SOME detail on the 

MORE





GVI Forex john  20:42:50 GMT - 08/26/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Speech @ 14:00 GMT Friday
Fed Chair Bernanke @ Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.


TOPIC: "The Economic Outlook and the Federal Reserve's Policy Response"

IMPACT: Seen as a major policy speech by the markets. Traders hoping for an explanation of future policy. As usual, lots of room for disappointment.


GVI Forex john  20:34:48 GMT - 08/26/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Major Data previews from Lloyds TSB from GV Blog

Revised 2Q10 U.K. GDP @ 8:30 GMT

A main highlight will be the second estimate of Q2 GDP, where we look for an outturn of +1.1% quarter-on-quarter, unrevised from the preliminary estimate published in late July. Subsequently-released June industrial production figures – which showed a 1.0% quarter-on-quarter increase during Q2 – imply no revision to the preliminary GDP estimate (taken alone, at least).


Revised 2Q10 U.S. GDP @ 12:30 GMT

Following a record widening in the US trade deficit in June, we expect the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday to be revised down to 1.4% quarterly annualised growth from an originally reported 2.4%. Furthermore, Q3 GDP indicators to date are suggesting that growth could remain muted for some time.




GVI Forex  john  20:16:35 GMT - 08/26/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	Gold	Oil	S&P
Res 3	1243.10	75.38	1076
Res 2	1240.48	74.67	1069
Res 1	1238.93	74.00	1060
			
Pivot	1236.31	73.29	1053
			
Sup 1	1234.76	72.62	1044
Sup 2	1232.14	71.91	1037
Sup 3	1230.59	71.24	1028


GVI Forex  john  20:12:24 GMT - 08/26/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2895	85.36	1.0389	1.5730	1.0676
Res 2	1.2830	85.13	1.0355	1.5664	1.0639
Res 1	1.2782	84.79	1.0293	1.5601	1.0596
					
Pivot	1.2717	84.56	1.0259	1.5535	1.0559
					
Sup 1	1.2669	84.22	1.0197	1.5472	1.0516
Sup 2	1.2604	83.99	1.0163	1.5406	1.0479
Sup 3	1.2556	83.65	1.0101	1.5343	1.0436


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8253	108.97	1.3243	0.9006
Res 2	0.8225	108.49	1.3192	0.8961
Res 1	0.8210	108.03	1.3112	0.8923
	
Pivot	0.8182	107.55	1.3061	0.8878
	
Sup 1	0.8167	107.09	1.2981	0.8840
Sup 2	0.8139	106.61	1.2930	0.8795
Sup 3	0.8124	106.15	1.2850	0.8757


GVI Forex john  20:10:51 GMT - 08/26/2010  




GVI Forex john  18:23:57 GMT - 08/26/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Bernanke & GDP Revisions 

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 26, 2010  The U.S. weekly claims report was not as weak ar predicted (490K) , but at 473K was still overall a weak number. 

MORE





GVI Forex john  15:16:55 GMT - 08/26/2010  

Aug 26 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see a slew of month end major data from Japan. In Europe, U.K. GDP is a major item. The Swiss KOF indicator is awaited. In North America, revisions to 2Q10 GDP are awaited. The University of Michigan Sentiment survey is due also. The markets are awaiting a key speech by Fed Chair Bernanke in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

23:30

JA

Core CPI yy Jul

-1.10%

-1.00%

23:30

JA

CPI yy Jul

n/a

-0.70%

23:30

JA

Hhld Spend yy Jul

1.30%

0.50%

23:30

JA

Unemploy Jul

5.30%

5.30%

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

8:30

UK

GDP qq 2Q

1.10%

1.10%

8:30

UK

GDP yy 2Q

1.60%

1.60%

8:30

CH

KOF Ind Aug

2.2

2.23

12:30

US

GDP 2Qr

1.30%

2.40%

13:55

US

U Mich Sent Augf

70

67.8




Mtl JP  13:16:03 GMT - 08/26/2010  
john 12:37 - choose your poison:

"Our numbers are always very accurate, so I was surprised at the discrepancy with the government's numbers," says Mayur, whose firm owns the TIPP polling unit, a polling partner for Investors' Business Daily and Christian Science Monitor... his survey for May revealed that 28% of the 1,000-odd households surveyed reported that at least one member was looking for a full-time job... The June poll turned up 27.8% of households with at least one member who's unemployed and looking for a job, while the latest poll conducted in the second week of July showed 28.6% in that situation. That translates to an unemployment rate of over 22%, says Mayur, who has started questioning the accuracy of the Labor Department's jobless numbers - LINK



GVI Forex john  12:37:18 GMT - 08/26/2010  
Increase in jobless claims better than feared...

Weekly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for seven-year history



London Mick  11:49:12 GMT - 08/26/2010  
Market is adjusting risk ahead of US weekly claims data


GVI Forex john  11:34:16 GMT - 08/26/2010  
JP- good point. Also with jobless benefits running off for many all the time, I suspect that a good number have figured out how to "game" the system.


Mtl JP  11:28:56 GMT - 08/26/2010  
Jobless Claims is victim to changes in claims rules.
confusion between continuing and initial = added risk to trading off the numbers


GVI Forex john  11:19:26 GMT - 08/26/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Preview by Lloyds TSB from Global-View Blog

Weekly Jobless Claims @ 12:30 GMT

The sluggish recovery in the labour market is hindering any uplift in confidence and spending. While we expect initial jobless claims to fall by 25k after last week’s shock rise to 500k – the worst since November 2009 – the number of lay-offs by firms has clearly trended up in recent months and will weigh on household spending over the coming quarters. The weak labour market is also likely to coincide with continued weakness in existing and new home sales.


GVI Forex john  11:17:15 GMT - 08/26/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT

Weekly jobless data

Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.


GVI Forex john  11:15:03 GMT - 08/26/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2834	85.80	1.0416	1.5561	1.0740
Res 2	1.2780	85.32	1.0373	1.5515	1.0703
Res 1	1.2716	85.05	1.0337	1.5481	1.0648
			
Pivot	1.2662	84.57	1.0294	1.5435	1.0611

Sup 1	1.2598	84.30	1.0258	1.5401	1.0556
Sup 2	1.2544	83.82	1.0215	1.5355	1.0519
Sup 3	1.2480	83.55	1.0179	1.5321	1.0464

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD

Res 3	0.8288	109.25	1.3205	0.9017
Res 2	0.8263	108.45	1.3145	0.8956
Res 1	0.8227	107.85	1.3093	0.8894
Pivot	0.8202	107.05	1.3033	0.8833

Sup 1	0.8166	106.45	1.2981	0.8771
Sup 2	0.8141	105.65	1.2921	0.8710
Sup 3	0.8105	105.05	1.2869	0.8648


GVI Forex john  11:13:45 GMT - 08/26/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  09:42:47 GMT - 08/26/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Waiting for More U.S. Data

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 26, 2010  Today the focus is on the U.S.  weekly jobless report early in N.Y. After two poor sets of housing data this week 

MORE





GVI Forex  john  20:38:05 GMT - 08/25/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	Gold	Oil	S&P
Res 3	1255.21	75.31	1084
Res 2	1247.97	74.02	1071
Res 1	1244.09	73.37	1065
			
Pivot	1236.85	72.08	1052
			
Sup 1	1232.97	71.43	1046
Sup 2	1225.73	70.14	1033
Sup 3	1221.85	69.49	1027


GVI Forex  john  20:29:58 GMT - 08/25/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2834	85.80	1.0416	1.5561	1.0740
Res 2	1.2780	85.32	1.0373	1.5515	1.0703
Res 1	1.2716	85.05	1.0337	1.5481	1.0648
			
Pivot	1.2662	84.57	1.0294	1.5435	1.0611

Sup 1	1.2598	84.30	1.0258	1.5401	1.0556
Sup 2	1.2544	83.82	1.0215	1.5355	1.0519
Sup 3	1.2480	83.55	1.0179	1.5321	1.0464

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD

Res 3	0.8288	109.25	1.3205	0.9017
Res 2	0.8263	108.45	1.3145	0.8956
Res 1	0.8227	107.85	1.3093	0.8894
Pivot	0.8202	107.05	1.3033	0.8833

Sup 1	0.8166	106.45	1.2981	0.8771
Sup 2	0.8141	105.65	1.2921	0.8710
Sup 3	0.8105	105.05	1.2869	0.8648


GVI Forex  john  20:28:09 GMT - 08/25/2010  




GVI Forex john  18:33:42 GMT - 08/25/2010  

The Daily Forex View

More Bad U.S. Data

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 25, 2010  Wednesday saw more poor data out of the U.S.  Advance Durable Goods Orders and New Homes Sales released 

MORE





GVI Forex john  15:42:29 GMT - 08/25/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Thursday data previews by Lloyds TSB fom Global-View Blog

Thursday
EZ M3 @ 8:00 GMT
Euro M3 money supply data will incorporate the latest figure on bank lending to the private sector. Significantly, the pace of contraction in loans extended to non-financial corporations has now started to ease.

Weekly Jobless Claims @ 12:30 GMT
The sluggish recovery in the labour market is hindering any uplift in confidence and spending. While we expect initial jobless claims to fall by 25k after last week’s shock rise to 500k – the worst since November 2009 – the number of lay-offs by firms has clearly trended up in recent months and will weigh on household spending over the coming quarters. The weak labour market is also likely to coincide with continued weakness in existing and new home sales.




GVI Forex john  15:29:55 GMT - 08/25/2010  

Aug 25 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major data. In Europe, EZ money supply is closely followed by many members of the ECB. In North America, weekly jobless claims are always a highlight. Natural Gas inventories will be watched following the break of the $4.00 price level. A 7-yr note auction is slated.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

8:00

EZ

M3 3mo-avg Jul

0.50%

0.00%

8:00

EZ

Apr M3 yy

0.30%

0.20%

12:30

US

WKInit Claims k

491

500

12:30

US

WKConClaims m

4.5

4.478

14:30

US

Nat Gas bcf

36.5

37

17:00

TRY

TRY 7-yr

n/a

n/a




GVI Forex john  14:15:30 GMT - 08/25/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 14:30 GMT
EIA- The Department of Energy (DOE survey)


EIA Survey comes out Wednesday morning. The DOE survey is more closely watched and generally seen as more accurate than the API data on Tuesday.


GVI Forex john  14:11:23 GMT - 08/25/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
More poor housing data (new homes sales new data point)


GVI Forex john  13:05:00 GMT - 08/25/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 14:00 GMT
New Home Sales, Starts/Permits


New Home Sales record sales of U.S. newly constructed residences. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes New Home Sales statistics monthly

IMPACT: New homes sales is viewed as a second tier housing figure but is a part of the larger picture.



GVI Forex john  12:00:42 GMT - 08/25/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT

Advance Durable Goods/Factory Orders


Durable good new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. The advance report is an early estimate of durable goods orders. Two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the Factory Orders report. Department of Commerce; BEA.




GVI Forex john  11:27:42 GMT - 08/25/2010  
EURUSD back trading with S&P futures. Easier S&P futures since about 8:00 GMT leading EURUSD lower. N.Y. trading robots switched back on?


GVI Forex john  10:50:14 GMT - 08/25/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2863	86.63	1.0572	1.5644	1.0814
Res 2	1.2791	85.92	1.0512	1.5579	1.0738
Res 1	1.2732	85.04	1.0408	1.5504	1.0668
					
Pivot	1.2660	84.33	1.0348	1.5439	1.0592
					
Sup 1	1.2601	83.45	1.0244	1.5364	1.0522
Sup 2	1.2529	82.74	1.0184	1.5299	1.0446
Sup 3	1.2470	81.86	1.0080	1.5224	1.0376


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8308	110.28	1.3278	0.9010
Res 2	0.8264	109.07	1.3229	0.8959
Res 1	0.8237	107.87	1.3145	0.8900

Pivot	0.8193	106.66	1.3096	0.8849

Sup 1	0.8166	105.46	1.3012	0.8790
Sup 2	0.8122	104.25	1.2963	0.8739
Sup 3	0.8095	103.05	1.2879	0.8680



GVI Forex john  10:48:10 GMT - 08/25/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  10:00:43 GMT - 08/25/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier: German IFO. Better than forecast. Note general trends in components.


GVI Forex john  09:42:01 GMT - 08/25/2010  

The Daily Forex View

JPY Still the Focus

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 25, 2010  One has to wonder if the poor U.S. housing data yesterday were a game changer for the markets. Bottom line, the data were exceptionally weak in relative and absolute terms. Also all attempts to explain the data away had a hollow ring to them.

MORE





GVI Forex  john  20:21:39 GMT - 08/24/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2863	86.63	1.0572	1.5644	1.0814
Res 2	1.2791	85.92	1.0512	1.5579	1.0738
Res 1	1.2732	85.04	1.0408	1.5504	1.0668
					
Pivot	1.2660	84.33	1.0348	1.5439	1.0592
					
Sup 1	1.2601	83.45	1.0244	1.5364	1.0522
Sup 2	1.2529	82.74	1.0184	1.5299	1.0446
Sup 3	1.2470	81.86	1.0080	1.5224	1.0376


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8308	110.28	1.3278	0.9010
Res 2	0.8264	109.07	1.3229	0.8959
Res 1	0.8237	107.87	1.3145	0.8900

Pivot	0.8193	106.66	1.3096	0.8849

Sup 1	0.8166	105.46	1.3012	0.8790
Sup 2	0.8122	104.25	1.2963	0.8739
Sup 3	0.8095	103.05	1.2879	0.8680



GVI Forex john  20:18:43 GMT - 08/24/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  18:11:12 GMT - 08/24/2010  

The Daily Forex View

JPY Issues Unresolved

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 24, 2010  Tuesday was a difficult forex trading session. It had appeared early that the focus of the day would be on additional 

MORE





GVI Forex john  18:04:18 GMT - 08/24/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Major Data Previews for Wednesday from Lloyds TSB in GVI Blog...

08:00 key indicator Germany’s Ifo survey, where we see a pull-back in the expectations component reflecting concerns about the evolution of global economic recovery. We expect the overall business climate index to soften to 105.3 from July’s 106.2.

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods- Although US durable goods orders are expected to have rebounded in July, we think by 0.5% month-on-month, recent surveys suggest underlying demand is softening.



GVI Forex john  17:56:31 GMT - 08/24/2010  
Correction to Calendar. Fed Minutes are due in one week's time not today...


GVI Forex john  14:51:52 GMT - 08/24/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Aug 24 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see the release of Japanese trade data. In Europe, the key IFO survey results are due. In North America, weekly mortgage statistics, Durable Goods Orders, New Homes Sales and weekly energy data are due. A 5-yr note auction is slated.

 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

23:50

JA

Trade JPYb Jul

458.8

687

8:00

DE

IFO Climate Aug

105.5

106.2

8:00

DE

IFO Cond Aug

107

106.8

8:00

DE

IFO Expect Aug

104.7

105.5

11:00

US

WK Mortgage Stats

n/a

n/a

12:30

US

Dur Goods Jul

2.80%

-1.10%

14:00

US

N-Homek Jul

330

330

14:30

US

EIA Crude mn

0.8

-0.818

14:30

US

EIA Distillate mn

1

-0.039

14:30

US

EIA Gasoline mn

-0.2

1.07

14:30

US

EIA Cap Util

89.70%

90.00%

17:00

TRY

TRY 5-yr

n/a

n/a




GVI Forex john  14:11:49 GMT - 08/24/2010  
 
Note plunge in existing homes sales presaged by pending homes sales data (red line lagged) over past two months


GVI Forex john  13:16:51 GMT - 08/24/2010  
Data @ 14:00 GMT
Existing Homes Sales
Seen sharply lower as buying incentives ran off


The most closely followed housing statistic by the markets is Existing Homes sales compiled by the NAR (National Association of Realtors). Existing-Home Sales data come out On or about the 25th of each month. The report contains statistics on sales and prices of existing single-family homes for the nation and the four regions. These figures include condos and co-ops, in addition to single-family homes.



GVI Forex john  12:52:22 GMT - 08/24/2010  
JPY spots vs EUR and USD seem to be tracking S&P even more closely than EURUSD.

Risk trades generally are out of favor today.


GVI Forex john  12:28:33 GMT - 08/24/2010  
$/yen reminds me of the 1970's and 1980's. Markets forcing the hand of the BOJ.


GVI Forex john  11:26:19 GMT - 08/24/2010  
Data @ 12:30 GMT
Canadian Retail Sales


Retail Sales are usually a broad measure of the retail sale of consumer durable and non-durables. It is used by analysts to gauge the strength of consumer consumption.

IMPACT: In most economies, the consumer sector is the largest sector of the economy. Central banks watch retail sales to measure the strength of the economy.



GVI Forex john  11:06:35 GMT - 08/24/2010  
A couple of thoughts from our Daily forex View...


There is not much the government can do to combat the rise of the JPY in the face of real capital flows. Those funding long EUR and USD positions in JPY want to reduce their short JPY exposures and will not be deterred by forex intervention. Forex intervention is a more effective tool against speculation.

Tokyo is certainly distressed by the strength of the currency with the economy fragile. The Nikkei eased again today on the strength of the currency. Some sort of action in the JPY is probable this week, whether it will be effective remains to be seen.

The Carry Trade currencies (and risk trades) are weaker vs. the JPY and USD as well. This suggests that JPY carry trades are being unwound.




GVI Forex  john  20:27:24 GMT - 08/23/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2799	86.14	1.0546	1.5710	1.0636
Res 2	1.2765	85.91	1.0477	1.5665	1.0583
Res 1	1.2715	85.55	1.0442	1.5592	1.0552
					
Pivot	1.2681	85.32	1.0373	1.5547	1.0499
					
Sup 1	1.2631	84.96	1.0338	1.5474	1.0468
Sup 2	1.2597	84.73	1.0269	1.5429	1.0415
Sup 3	1.2547	84.37	1.0234	1.5356	1.0384


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8217	109.79	1.3300	0.9094
Res 2	0.8199	109.35	1.3246	0.9038
Res 1	0.8178	108.62	1.3213	0.8977
		
Pivot	0.8160	108.18	1.3159	0.8921
	
Sup 1	0.8139	107.45	1.3126	0.8860
Sup 2	0.8121	107.01	1.3072	0.8804
Sup 3	0.8100	106.28	1.3039	0.8743




GVI Forex john  20:24:35 GMT - 08/23/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  18:45:30 GMT - 08/23/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Focus on Austerity

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 23, 2010  Forex markets moved beyond the Australian election on Monday and are now expecting an extended period of time 

MORE





GVI Forex john  14:27:47 GMT - 08/23/2010  

Aug 23 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major releases on Tuesday. In Europe, EZ new industrial orders are due along with Belgian leading indicators. In North America, U.S. existing homes sales, the latest Fed minutes, a 2-yr auction and API Energy data are slated.

 

 

TUESDAY

 

 

9:00

EZ

New Ind Ord mm Jun

1.50%

3.80%

9:00

EZ

New Ind Ord yy Jun

22.90%

22.70%

12:30

CA

Retail Sales - Jun

n/a

-0.20%

12:30

CA

RS x-auto - Jun

n/a

-0.10%

13:00

BE

Lead Ind Aug

-6

-6.5

14:00

US

Ex Hms m Jul

4.78

5.37

17:00

TRY

TRY 2-yr

n/a

n/a

18:00

Fed

Fed Minutes

n/a

n/a

20:30

US

API Energy

n/a

n/a

 

 




GVI Forex john  12:24:27 GMT - 08/23/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2973	86.60	1.0506	1.5730	1.0668
Res 2	1.2903	86.23	1.0450	1.5663	1.0591
Res 1	1.2805	85.95	1.0401	1.5597	1.0538
					
Pivot	1.2735	85.58	1.0345	1.5530	1.0461
					
Sup 1	1.2637	85.30	1.0296	1.5464	1.0408
Sup 2	1.2567	84.93	1.0240	1.5397	1.0331
Sup 3	1.2469	84.65	1.0191	1.5331	1.0278

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8306	110.91	1.3316	0.9045
Res 2	0.8277	110.25	1.3278	0.8989
Res 1	0.8230	109.57	1.3217	0.8956

Pivot	0.8201	108.91	1.3179	0.8900
	
Sup 1	0.8154	108.23	1.3118	0.8867
Sup 2	0.8125	107.57	1.3080	0.8811
Sup 3	0.8078	106.89	1.3019	0.8778



GVI Forex john  12:23:06 GMT - 08/23/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  11:03:27 GMT - 08/23/2010  
 
Earlier EZ flash Service PMI weaker than expected.


GVI Forex john  11:02:40 GMT - 08/23/2010  
 
Earlier EZ flash mfg PMI weaker than expected.


GVI Forex john  09:41:32 GMT - 08/23/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Inconclusive Aussie Vote

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 23, 2010  The focus over this past weekend has been on the election in Australia, which has ended with a hung Parliament. .

MORE





GVI Forex  john  20:39:48 GMT - 08/22/2010  
Don't trust those ranges!


GVI Forex  john  20:37:53 GMT - 08/22/2010  
AUD=	0.8870	-52 	0.8940	0.8843
CAD=	1.0492	6 	1.0506	1.0479
NZD=	0.7044	-25 	0.7066	0.7037
AUDNZD=	1.2580	-32 	1.2646	1.2560


GVI Forex  john  20:37:06 GMT - 08/22/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2973	86.60	1.0506	1.5730	1.0668
Res 2	1.2903	86.23	1.0450	1.5663	1.0591
Res 1	1.2805	85.95	1.0401	1.5597	1.0538
					
Pivot	1.2735	85.58	1.0345	1.5530	1.0461
					
Sup 1	1.2637	85.30	1.0296	1.5464	1.0408
Sup 2	1.2567	84.93	1.0240	1.5397	1.0331
Sup 3	1.2469	84.65	1.0191	1.5331	1.0278

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8306	110.91	1.3316	0.9045
Res 2	0.8277	110.25	1.3278	0.8989
Res 1	0.8230	109.57	1.3217	0.8956

Pivot	0.8201	108.91	1.3179	0.8900
	
Sup 1	0.8154	108.23	1.3118	0.8867
Sup 2	0.8125	107.57	1.3080	0.8811
Sup 3	0.8078	106.89	1.3019	0.8778



GVI Forex  john  20:33:51 GMT - 08/22/2010  




GVI Forex  john  20:19:56 GMT - 08/20/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2973	86.60	1.0506	1.5730	1.0668
Res 2	1.2903	86.23	1.0450	1.5663	1.0591
Res 1	1.2805	85.95	1.0401	1.5597	1.0538
					
Pivot	1.2735	85.58	1.0345	1.5530	1.0461
					
Sup 1	1.2637	85.30	1.0296	1.5464	1.0408
Sup 2	1.2567	84.93	1.0240	1.5397	1.0331
Sup 3	1.2469	84.65	1.0191	1.5331	1.0278

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8306	110.91	1.3316	0.9045
Res 2	0.8277	110.25	1.3278	0.8989
Res 1	0.8230	109.57	1.3217	0.8956

Pivot	0.8201	108.91	1.3179	0.8900
	
Sup 1	0.8154	108.23	1.3118	0.8867
Sup 2	0.8125	107.57	1.3080	0.8811
Sup 3	0.8078	106.89	1.3019	0.8778



GVI Forex john  20:18:32 GMT - 08/20/2010  




GVI Forex john  16:02:07 GMT - 08/20/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Following Equities

17:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 20, 2010  The markets have behaved pretty much as we had expected today as traders pondered the poor economic data 

MORE





GVI Forex  john  15:23:41 GMT - 08/20/2010  




GVI Forex john  14:14:18 GMT - 08/20/2010  

Aug 20 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major releases on Monday. Saturday will see a major national election in Australia. Many polls are favoring a close victory by the Australian Labor Party (ALP).  In Europe, flash manufacturing and Service PMIs are awaited. In North America, no major data are slated.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

 

0:00

AU

Election

n/a

n/a

 

 

SUNDAY

 

 

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

7:58

EZ

Mfg PMI flash Jun

56.2

56.5

7:58

EZ

Svc PMI flash Jun

55.5

56




GVI Forex john  11:09:56 GMT - 08/20/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Mixed data but no cause for concern at the BOC.


GVI Forex john  10:44:40 GMT - 08/20/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3019	86.86	1.0638	1.5846	1.0621
Res 2	1.2960	86.39	1.0552	1.5759	1.0518
Res 1	1.2890	85.85	1.0432	1.5678	1.0452
					
Pivot	1.2831	85.38	1.0346	1.5591	1.0349
					
Sup 1	1.2761	84.84	1.0226	1.5510	1.0283
Sup 2	1.2702	84.37	1.0140	1.5423	1.0180
Sup 3	1.2632	83.83	1.0020	1.5342	1.0114

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8305	110.92	1.3553	0.9101
Res 2	0.8277	110.55	1.3480	0.9059
Res 1	0.8248	109.96	1.3353	0.8989

Pivot	0.8220	109.59	1.3280	0.8947
				
Sup 1	0.8191	109.00	1.3153	0.8877
Sup 2	0.8163	108.63	1.3080	0.8835
Sup 3	0.8134	108.04	1.2953	0.8765



GVI Forex john  10:42:38 GMT - 08/20/2010  




GVI Forex john  10:10:28 GMT - 08/20/2010  
Data @ 11:00 GMT
Canadian Consumer Price Index


The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as “core” inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.

Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.



GVI Forex john  09:38:47 GMT - 08/20/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Chasing Equities Today?

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 19, 2010  The markets will have another session today to ponder the poor  economic data out of the U.S. released 

MORE





GVI Forex  john  21:03:08 GMT - 08/19/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3019	86.86	1.0638	1.5846	1.0621
Res 2	1.2960	86.39	1.0552	1.5759	1.0518
Res 1	1.2890	85.85	1.0432	1.5678	1.0452
					
Pivot	1.2831	85.38	1.0346	1.5591	1.0349
					
Sup 1	1.2761	84.84	1.0226	1.5510	1.0283
Sup 2	1.2702	84.37	1.0140	1.5423	1.0180
Sup 3	1.2632	83.83	1.0020	1.5342	1.0114

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8305	110.92	1.3553	0.9101
Res 2	0.8277	110.55	1.3480	0.9059
Res 1	0.8248	109.96	1.3353	0.8989

Pivot	0.8220	109.59	1.3280	0.8947
				
Sup 1	0.8191	109.00	1.3153	0.8877
Sup 2	0.8163	108.63	1.3080	0.8835
Sup 3	0.8134	108.04	1.2953	0.8765



GVI Forex john  20:54:54 GMT - 08/19/2010  




GVI Forex john  18:22:24 GMT - 08/19/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Double-Dip?

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 19, 2010  Thursday was a bad day for economic data out of the U.S. We tend to watch weekly jobless claims more 

MORE





GVI Forex john  17:20:57 GMT - 08/19/2010  
Seeing some North American loose correlation between equities and EURUSD.


GVI Forex john  15:48:28 GMT - 08/19/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Aug 19 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major releases on Friday. In Europe, no key are due. In North America, Canadian CPI data are awaited.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

11:00

CA

BOC CPI yy Jul

1.80%

-0.10%

11:00

CA

CPI yy Jun

1.90%

1.00%




GVI Forex john  13:35:36 GMT - 08/19/2010  
Data @ 14:00 GMT
Philadelphia Fed Survey


The Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968.

Leading Economic Indicators
Second-tier report report. A compendium mostly of data already known.



GVI Forex john  12:43:02 GMT - 08/19/2010  
Weekly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for seven-year history



GVI Forex john  12:33:04 GMT - 08/19/2010  
US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 500,000

bad number


GVI Forex john  11:32:45 GMT - 08/19/2010  
Data at 12:30 GMT
Weekly jobless data
IMPACT: High


Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.



GVI Forex john  10:39:35 GMT - 08/19/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3013	86.17	1.0516	1.5880	1.0392
Res 2	1.2968	85.93	1.0484	1.5784	1.0366
Res 1	1.2914	85.68	1.0449	1.5692	1.0323
					
Pivot	1.2869	85.44	1.0417	1.5596	1.0297
					
Sup 1	1.2815	85.19	1.0382	1.5504	1.0254
Sup 2	1.2770	84.95	1.0350	1.5408	1.0228
Sup 3	1.2716	84.70	1.0315	1.5316	1.0185


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8336	111.08	1.3533	0.9128
Res 2	0.8309	110.73	1.3491	0.9093
Res 1	0.8276	110.31	1.3443	0.9043

Pivot	0.8249	109.96	1.3401	0.9008				

Sup 1	0.8216	109.54	1.3353	0.8958
Sup 2	0.8189	109.19	1.3311	0.8923
Sup 3	0.8156	108.77	1.3263	0.8873



GVI Forex john  10:38:03 GMT - 08/19/2010  




GVI Forex john  09:51:42 GMT - 08/19/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Markets Heating Up

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 19, 2010  The EUR is trading modestly lower vs. the USD at this hour and is currently broadly weaker on its key crosses.

MORE





GVI Forex john  20:59:08 GMT - 08/18/2010  
We are still watching the EURUSD pivot point (1.2869), based on Wednesday's range. Above or below sets the tone of the market.

The USDJPY pivot is 85.44, but we fell the 85.00 level is a lot more important.


GVI Forex  john  20:42:13 GMT - 08/18/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3013	86.17	1.0516	1.5880	1.0392
Res 2	1.2968	85.93	1.0484	1.5784	1.0366
Res 1	1.2914	85.68	1.0449	1.5692	1.0323
					
Pivot	1.2869	85.44	1.0417	1.5596	1.0297
					
Sup 1	1.2815	85.19	1.0382	1.5504	1.0254
Sup 2	1.2770	84.95	1.0350	1.5408	1.0228
Sup 3	1.2716	84.70	1.0315	1.5316	1.0185


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8336	111.08	1.3533	0.9128
Res 2	0.8309	110.73	1.3491	0.9093
Res 1	0.8276	110.31	1.3443	0.9043

Pivot	0.8249	109.96	1.3401	0.9008				

Sup 1	0.8216	109.54	1.3353	0.8958
Sup 2	0.8189	109.19	1.3311	0.8923
Sup 3	0.8156	108.77	1.3263	0.8873



GVI Forex john  20:40:20 GMT - 08/18/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  19:21:46 GMT - 08/18/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Following Price Action

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 18, 2010  As expected, Wednesday was a lackluster day for forex trading in the absence of major news. The two key EUR 

MORE





GVI Forex john  14:48:40 GMT - 08/18/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

 

Aug 18 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major releases on Thursday. In Europe, Swiss Trade figures and U.K. retail sales data are due. In North America, the Philly Fed survey, Leading Economic Indicators and weekly natural gas statistics are due.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

6:15

CH

Trade CHF bn Jul

n/a

1.77

8:30

UK

Ret Sls mm Jul

0.40%

0.70%

8:30

UK

Ret Sls yy Jul

0.60%

1.30%

9:00

CH

ZEW Inv Sent Aug

n/a

2.2

12:30

CA

Lead Ind -- Jul

0.60%

1.00%

14:00

US

Philly Fed Aug

7

5.1

14:00

US

Lead Ind Jul

0.20%

-0.20%

14:30

US

Nat Gas bcf

34

37




GVI Forex john  12:00:25 GMT - 08/18/2010  
We are watching the pivot points in EURUSD and USDJPY to set tone of the markets on a day with mo major data slated. 1.2867 is the pivot in EURUSD and 85.43 is the point in USDJPY. These numbers cannot not be exact because others will be using different source data but they should be generally representative.

Our calculations are based on the data in the GVI FX Database



GVI Forex john  11:31:59 GMT - 08/18/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
Japanese fixed income markets flashing a yellow warning light. GVI Japanese Interest Rate Chart. Note how 10-yr yield has tumbled and 2-yr note is yielding close to 0%. See left sidebar for links to interest rate charts for major economies updated twice daily.


GVI Forex john  10:24:49 GMT - 08/18/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3038	86.31	1.0547	1.5807	1.0539
Res 2	1.2977	86.00	1.0497	1.5752	1.0488
Res 1	1.2928	85.74	1.0463	1.5664	1.0410

Pivot	1.2867	85.43	1.0413	1.5609	1.0359

Sup 1	1.2818	85.17	1.0379	1.5521	1.0281
Sup 2	1.2757	84.86	1.0329	1.5466	1.0230
Sup 3	1.2708	84.60	1.0295	1.5378	1.0152


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8406	112.12	1.3660	0.9246
Res 2	0.8345	111.32	1.3560	0.9164
Res 1	0.8306	110.71	1.3501	0.9111
			
Pivot	0.8245	109.91	1.3401	0.9029

Sup 1	0.8206	109.30	1.3342	0.8976
Sup 2	0.8145	108.50	1.3242	0.8894
Sup 3	0.8106	107.89	1.3183	0.8841


GVI Forex john  10:23:51 GMT - 08/18/2010  




GVI Forex john  09:36:34 GMT - 08/18/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Late Summer Trade

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 18, 2010  The USD is trading modestly lower against the four majors heading into N.Y. trade today. Otherwise, the EUR is 

MORE





GVI Forex  john  20:44:08 GMT - 08/17/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3038	86.31	1.0547	1.5807	1.0539
Res 2	1.2977	86.00	1.0497	1.5752	1.0488
Res 1	1.2928	85.74	1.0463	1.5664	1.0410

Pivot	1.2867	85.43	1.0413	1.5609	1.0359

Sup 1	1.2818	85.17	1.0379	1.5521	1.0281
Sup 2	1.2757	84.86	1.0329	1.5466	1.0230
Sup 3	1.2708	84.60	1.0295	1.5378	1.0152


Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8406	112.12	1.3660	0.9246
Res 2	0.8345	111.32	1.3560	0.9164
Res 1	0.8306	110.71	1.3501	0.9111
			
Pivot	0.8245	109.91	1.3401	0.9029

Sup 1	0.8206	109.30	1.3342	0.8976
Sup 2	0.8145	108.50	1.3242	0.8894
Sup 3	0.8106	107.89	1.3183	0.8841


GVI Forex john  20:43:04 GMT - 08/17/2010  




GVI Forex john  19:37:44 GMT - 08/17/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Lloyds TSB Data preview from GVI Blog

"The most important release of the week is the (BOE) minutes of the August MPC policy meeting (Wednesday). The minutes take on greater importance given the cautious note struck by the Bank of England in last week’s Inflation Report. The BoE revised down its projection for GDP growth in 2011.

Moreover, despite revising up its short-term inflation outlook, it stuck with its view that annual CPI would fall well below the government’s 2% target over the medium term. The minutes will show the importance the Committee now attaches to the arguments surrounding the UK policy debate. While one member - Andrew Sentance - is likely to have argued again for a modest tightening, the tone of the Inflation Report suggests other members still need a lot of convincing.

Overall, we expect the most likely outcome of the policy vote was 8-1 in favour of no change. Given the Bank’s latest forecasts, however, we would not be surprised if there was a three-way split, with one or two members voting in favour of a resumption of QE. The minutes are released after the CPI figures (Tuesday), but before the public finance data and retail sales figures."





GVI Forex john  17:48:01 GMT - 08/17/2010  

DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

The Daily Forex View

Active Session Early

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 17, 2010  Tuesday was another active session with the correlation computers apparently turned back on during the 

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GVI Forex john  15:22:27 GMT - 08/17/2010  

OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Check out this relationship. it continues to work well. The USDJPY is positively correlated with the differential on U.S. minus Japanese 2-yr government bond yields. check out the left sidebar, we update selected interest rate levels twice daily.



GVI Forex john  14:39:18 GMT - 08/17/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

 

Aug 17 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major releases on Wednesday. In Europe, the U.K. will see the release of the latest BOE meeting minutes. In North America, weekly mortgage statistics and crude oil inventories are due.

 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

8:30

UK

BOE Minutes

n/a

n/a

11:00

US

WK Mortgage Stats

n/a

n/a

14:30

US

EIA Crude mn

-1.1

-2.99

14:30

US

EIA Distillate mn

1.3

0.409

14:30

US

EIA Gasoline mn

-0.2

3.46

14:30

US

EIA Cap Util

87.60%

88.10%




GVI Forex john  12:53:00 GMT - 08/17/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 13:15 GMT

Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization


Industrial Production is an index designed to measure changes in the level of output in the industrial sector of the economy. The index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry (manufacturing, mining, and utilities). The data is produced by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

IMPACT: While the industrial sector of the economy represents only about 20 percent of GDP, because changes in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector changes in this index provide useful information on the current growth of GDP. The level of capacity utilization in the industrial sector provides information on the overall level of resource utilization in the economy which may in turn provide information on the likely future course of inflation.



GVI Forex john  12:41:34 GMT - 08/17/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Level of permits/starts lower than forecast. Not sure if this is good or bad. Presumably, supply of existing stock is being absorbed?


GVI Forex john  11:27:13 GMT - 08/17/2010  

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3016	87.05	1.0687	1.5893	1.0572
Res 2	1.2943	86.67	1.0610	1.5800	1.0518
Res 1	1.2880	85.99	1.0505	1.5723	1.0479
					
Pivot	1.2807	85.61	1.0428	1.5630	1.0425
					
Sup 1	1.2744	84.93	1.0323	1.5553	1.0386
Sup 2	1.2671	84.55	1.0246	1.5460	1.0332
Sup 3	1.2608	83.87	1.0141	1.5383	1.0293

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD	GBP/JPY
Res 3	0.8267	111.16	1.3606	0.9162	135.67
Res 2	0.8247	110.74	1.3529	0.9080	135.13
Res 1	0.8218	110.03	1.3428	0.9026	134.29
			
Pivot 0.8198	109.61	1.3351	0.8944	133.75
	
Sup 1	0.8169	108.90	1.3250	0.8890	132.91
Sup 2	0.8149	108.48	1.3173	0.8808	132.37
Sup 3	0.8120	107.77	1.3072	0.8754	131.53





GVI Forex john  11:25:53 GMT - 08/17/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  11:22:33 GMT - 08/17/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:
Data @ 12:30 GMT

Producer Price Index (PPI)

The PPI is a price index designed to measure the level of wholesale prices in a given economy. Its another input into the policy making decisions of central banks.

Home Starts/Permits
New Home Sales record sales of U.S. newly constructed residences. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes New Home Sales statistics monthly





GVI Forex john  10:11:44 GMT - 08/17/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier U.K. inflation improving (easing)...Note CPI (red bar) is almost in target.


GVI Forex john  09:50:05 GMT - 08/17/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Volatile Trade

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 17, 2010  Not surprisingly, the USD has turned south against Europe today. We had been wondering late yesterday if the 

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GVI Forex  john  20:32:01 GMT - 08/16/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3016	87.05	1.0687	1.5893	1.0572
Res 2	1.2943	86.67	1.0610	1.5800	1.0518
Res 1	1.2880	85.99	1.0505	1.5723	1.0479
					
Pivot	1.2807	85.61	1.0428	1.5630	1.0425
					
Sup 1	1.2744	84.93	1.0323	1.5553	1.0386
Sup 2	1.2671	84.55	1.0246	1.5460	1.0332
Sup 3	1.2608	83.87	1.0141	1.5383	1.0293

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD	GBP/JPY
Res 3	0.8267	111.16	1.3606	0.9162	135.67
Res 2	0.8247	110.74	1.3529	0.9080	135.13
Res 1	0.8218	110.03	1.3428	0.9026	134.29
			
Pivot 0.8198	109.61	1.3351	0.8944	133.75
	
Sup 1	0.8169	108.90	1.3250	0.8890	132.91
Sup 2	0.8149	108.48	1.3173	0.8808	132.37
Sup 3	0.8120	107.77	1.3072	0.8754	131.53





GVI Forex john  20:28:55 GMT - 08/16/2010  

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:




GVI Forex john  19:11:17 GMT - 08/16/2010  

The Daily Forex View

August Markets

20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 16, 2010  We noted early today that forex markets appeared to be looking for direction in the new week. We still feel 

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GVI Forex john  14:48:33 GMT - 08/16/2010  

CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

 

Aug 16 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major releases on Tuesday. In Europe, Eurozone Current Account data are due. The session will also see U.K. inflation data and the German ZEW survey. In North America, U.S. PPI, housing starts and permits, Industrial Production and API data are due.

 

 

 

TUESDAY

 

 

8:00

EZ

Cur/Acct Eurb Jun

n/a

-5.8

8:00

EZ

Inv Flows Eurb Jun

n/a

46.7

8:30

UK

CPI yy Jul

3.10%

3.20%

8:30

UK

RPI-X Jul

4.90%

5.00%

9:00

DE

ZEW Cond Aug

23

14.6

9:00

DE

ZEW Sent Aug

21

21.1

12:30

CA

Mfg Sales Jun

n/a

0.40%

12:30

US

PPI Jul

0.20%

-0.50%

12:30

US

PPI core Jul

0.20%

0.10%

12:30

US

Bldg Permits k Jul

585

586

12:30

US

House Starts k Jul

560

549

13:15

US

Cap Util Jul

n/a

74.10%

13:15

US

Ind Prod Jul

0.70%

0.10%

20:30

US

API Energy

n/a

n/a




GVI Forex john  12:36:50 GMT - 08/16/2010  
Data @ 13:00 GMT
Treasury TIC data


The Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system collects data for the United States on cross-border portfolio investment flows and positions between U.S. residents (including U.S.-based branches of firms headquartered in other countries) and foreign residents (including offshore branches of U.S. firms).

IMPACT: Traders sometimes use the TIC data as a measure of international demand for U.S. financial instruments. These data tend to be a bit old (two months) by the time they are released.



GVI Forex john  12:32:32 GMT - 08/16/2010  
Empire PMI 7.1


GVI Forex john  12:20:02 GMT - 08/16/2010  

ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
Earlier E-Z inflation in line with estimates.


GVI Forex john  11:43:13 GMT - 08/16/2010  
Data @ 12:30 GMT-
Purchasing Managers Index – Empire PMI


Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.



GVI Forex john  11:10:53 GMT - 08/16/2010  
Interesting EURUSD trading near 1.2804 pivot based on Friday ranges/closes. Neutral market
EURUSD Pivot: 1.2804
Resistance 1: 1.2855
Support 1: 1.2702

USDJPY pivot 86.08
Resistance 1: 86.59
Support 2: 85.27



GVI Forex john  10:48:34 GMT - 08/16/2010  
Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3008	87.40	1.0622	1.5765	1.0536
Res 2	1.2957	86.89	1.0587	1.5722	1.0487
Res 1	1.2855	86.59	1.0553	1.5657	1.0448
		
Pivot	1.2804	86.08	1.0518	1.5614	1.0399

Sup 1	1.2702	85.78	1.0484	1.5549	1.0360
Sup 2	1.2651	85.27	1.0449	1.5506	1.0311
Sup 3	1.2549	84.97	1.0415	1.5441	1.0272

Pivots EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8318	112.47	1.3617	0.9107
Res 2	0.8289	111.79	1.3579	0.9071
Res 1	0.8233	110.91	1.3499	0.9000

Pivot	0.8204	110.23	1.3461	0.8964
							
Sup 1	0.8148	109.35	1.3381	0.8893
Sup 2	0.8119	108.67	1.3343	0.8857
Sup 3	0.8063	107.79	1.3263	0.8786



GVI Forex john  10:46:49 GMT - 08/16/2010  




GVI Forex john  09:50:35 GMT - 08/16/2010  

The Daily Forex View

Cautious Start

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 16, 2010  Forex Markets appear to be looking for direction in the new week. The sharp decline in the EURUSD last week is not  

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