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GVI Forex john  08:52:22 GMT - 02/10/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

THU: BOE Decision. North America: US- Weekly Jobless  Wholesale Inventories, Natural Gas, 30-yr Auction

  • Trading mostly driven by technicals and flows (price action).

  • Watch the 30-yr auction later today. Weekly jobless early. 

  • Bernanke testimony had surprisingly little impact on the markets. .

  • Traders keeping a close eye on bonds. 10-yr auction surprisingly strong.

  • Lower U.S. bond yields 10-yr closed at 3.66%,weighing on USD.

  • Rising U.S. interest rates had been a key source of USD support..

  • Egypt out of the headlines, but not dead. Could flare up again at any time.





GVI Forex john  23:21:54 GMT - 02/09/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

THU: Far East: JP- CGPI, Machinery Orders, AU- Employment. Europe: CH- CPI, GB- Industrial/Manufacturing Output, BOE Decision. North America: US- Weekly Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories, Natural Gas, 30-yr Auction

  • Bernanke testimony had surprisingly little impact on the markets. .

  • Traders keeping a close eye on bonds. 10-yr auction surprisingly strong.

  • Lower U.S. bond yields 10-yr closed at 3.65% -8bps, weighed on USD.

  • Rising U.S. interest rates had been a key source of USD support..

  • Egypt out of the headlines, but not dead. Could flare up again at any time.

  • Trading mostly driven by technicals (price action).





GVI Forex john  18:07:00 GMT - 02/09/2011  
- Big surprise very strong auction.
- yields tumbling.
- EURUSD spiking higher.
- USD trading on yields.


GVI Forex  john  17:07:48 GMT - 02/09/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
Note the change signs on EUR crosses, except for EURNZD they are all positive. Suggests EUR still in demand. When they start to turn negative, the move is over.
12:08	Last	chg	high	low
EURUSD=	1.3697	65 	1.3720	1.3609
EURJPY=	112.91	67 	113.12	112.08
EURCHF=	1.3151	26 	1.3188	1.3122
EURGBP=	0.8508	26 	0.8525	0.8470
EURAUD=	1.3562	132 	1.3567	1.3420
EURCAD=	1.3622	62 	1.3624	1.3537
EURNZD=	1.7753	-18 	1.7762	1.7568



dc CB  14:20:27 GMT - 02/09/2011  
just after the elections there was a move to not give Ron Paul the chairmanship of the Monetary Policy Com. The republicans that wanted to block him were saying that he was too radical and confrontational. They gave up on that. So maybe????


GVI Forex john  14:07:30 GMT - 02/09/2011  
Bernanke can't avoid a Congressional Committee forever. Interesting that the committee chairs (both Republicans) could not coordinate their timing, unless as you say it was on purpose.


dc CB  13:59:36 GMT - 02/09/2011  
Interesting that Ron Paul is holding a hearing at the same time today. Maybe the strat is to never allow Bernanke to testify before Paul's committee.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology Subcommittee Chairman Ron Paul announced the witnesses for the Subcommittee’s hearing to examine the impact of Federal Reserve policies on job creation and the unemployment rate. The hearing will be held on Wednesday, February 9th at 10 am in room 2128 Rayburn.

No Fed Officials scheduled to testify at the hearing.


GVI Forex john  13:50:42 GMT - 02/09/2011  

...
Entry: Target: Stop:
- This testimony could be a watershed event as it could set the tone for the relationship of the Congress with the Fed for some time to come.
- A new and generally hostile Congress now in place even though Bernanke was put in place by a Republican President (BUSH Jr.).


GVI Forex john  12:38:36 GMT - 02/09/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

WED: North America: US- Bernanke, Weekly Energy, 10-yr

  • Key focus today is Bernanke testimony.

  • Traders keeping a close eye on bonds. 10-yr Auction a major focus.

  • Rising U.S. interest rates a key source of USD support..

  • Egypt out of the headlines, but not dead. Could flare up again at any time.

  • Trading mostly driven by technicals (price action).

  • EURUSD pivot is 1.3632. 





GVI Forex john  11:32:53 GMT - 02/09/2011  
- Now Bundesbank denies a statement is due on Weber, but fatal damage has been done imo.
- EUR up a bit. Had to believe the markets react to this.


GVI Forex john  10:55:18 GMT - 02/09/2011  
- EURUSD falls on report Buba President Weber will not be a replacement for Trichet.
- Apparently Weber disqualified himself with public comments in recent times.
- Not a major surprise to anyone following the situation.
- Trichet's term runs out in the fall;
- Expect a consensus candidate to emerge fairly quickly now that the air around Weber has cleared.


GVI Forex john  09:37:56 GMT - 02/09/2011  
- Mixed GBP reaction to December U.K. trade figures which were marginally weaker than expected.


GVI Forex john  22:44:01 GMT - 02/08/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

WED: Far East: No major data. Europe: DE- Trade GB- Trade. North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Bernanke, Weekly Energy, 10-yr

  • A key focus Wed will be the Bernanke testimony.

  • Traders keeping a close eye on bonds. 10-yr Auction a major focus.

  • Rising U.S. interest rates a key source of USD support.

  • Chinese rate hike more a reminder of global inflation risks.

  • Egypt out of the headlines, but not dead. Could flare up again at any time.

  • Trading mostly driven by technicals (price action).

  • EURUSD ending higher but off peak levels. Firmer vs. major crosses. 





dc CB  20:29:52 GMT - 02/08/2011  
 
5 year leading the charge.....last COT report had large specs holding large long postion


dc CB  20:01:11 GMT - 02/08/2011  
 
Methinks we're going to hear cries of 4.0, as we did last spring.


GVI Forex john  18:13:28 GMT - 02/08/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Generally reviews for the 3-yr auction have been lackluster. Bond prices are being marked down ahead of tranche 2 tomorrow (10-yr). USD improving on higher interest rates?


GVI Forex john  17:25:39 GMT - 02/08/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Don't forget,. 3-yr auction results at the top of the hour. We saw a private dealer poll a little while ago that 90 were looking for a weak outcome. Often theses polls are a contrary indicator.


GVI Forex john  14:25:00 GMT - 02/08/2011  
- Committee to discuss with Bernanke: QE2, the budget, a strong USD policy, inflation targeting etc.
- Depending on the answers by Bernanke, the USD could get support from this event. Worth monitoring.


GVI Forex john  13:09:38 GMT - 02/08/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

TUE: North America: US- NFIB Index, 3-yr Auction, API.

  • No major data from the U.S. today, but 3-yr Auction a major focus.

  • Rising U.S. interest rates have been a key source of USD support.

  • Focus now on key technical levels.

  • Chinese rate hike more a reminder of inflation, rather than a surprise.

  • Liquidity-driven demand for the EUR easing? 

  • Egypt out of the headlines. Could flare up again at any time. 





GVI Forex john  11:03:39 GMT - 02/08/2011  
- German December industrial output weaker than forecast. No doubt weather was a factor. Nevertheless, EURUSD is down on the data but still up on the day.


GVI Forex john  10:56:30 GMT - 02/08/2011  
Chinese rate hike was not a major surprise. It had been speculated about for a while. Timing is alway an unknown.


GVI Forex john  10:28:01 GMT - 02/08/2011  
- Chatter it has been Far East sovereign players who have bid up EURUSD today. Recall China comes back from its holidays on Wednesday.
- EUR better vs. the USD and mostly higher on its crosses at this hour.
- U.S. fixed income markets are dead steady ahead of a 3-yr auction today.


GVI Forex john  23:18:55 GMT - 02/07/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

TUE: Far East: CN- Lunar New Year. JP- Current Account. Europe: CH- Unemployment, DE- Industrial Output  North America: US- NFIB Index, 3-yr Auction, API.

  • Slow calendar this week. Markets still searching for a theme.

  • Focus now on key technical levels.

  • Has liquidity-driven demand for the EUR abated? 

  • Egypt out of the headlines for a day. Could flare up again at any time. 

  • Fundamental focus on rising U.S. bond yields. USD positive.

  • Bernanke focus on fiscal issues a weight on fixed income markets.





Israel  dil   17:54:24 GMT - 02/07/2011  
hopefully WS, that scenario will not make me to complain.


nyc ws  17:43:53 GMT - 02/07/2011  
or the month high???


Israel  dil   17:39:39 GMT - 02/07/2011  
my call about tomorrow is that ranges will be wider than today. Did EUR/USD see the month low already?


GVI Forex john  15:40:12 GMT - 02/07/2011  
- So far 20-day moving average 1.3495 untested.
- Someone protecting 1.3500.
- Perhaps some sovereigns buying down here?



GVI Forex john  14:37:02 GMT - 02/07/2011  
- Just noting that not only is EURUSD lower, but EUR is lower on all its major crosses. As always keep an eye on the EUR crosses.
- 10-yr last 3.676%, +3bp,



GVI Forex john  14:01:43 GMT - 02/07/2011  
- EURUSD through the global-view 100-day moving average of 1.3527 (close vs. the mva is most important)
- 20-day moving average 1.3495.
- Earlier saw soft Australian retail sales data.


GVI Forex john  12:27:58 GMT - 02/07/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Mon: North America: No Major Data.

  • Has liquidity-driven demand for the EUR abated? 

  • Slow calendar this week. Markets will be looking for a theme.

  • Street demonstrations in Cairo continue but flight-to-safety risk abating.

  • Australian retail sales data weaker than expected. RBA to move to sidelines? 

  • U.S. monthly employment gains Friday were disappointing, but dismissed due to technical factors. USD unaffected.

  • Bernanke focus on fiscal issues a weight on fixed income markets. Higher rates supporting USD.





Israel dil  11:30:57 GMT - 02/07/2011  
Jay, is it right to say that a trader interested in checking the EUR/USD downside must place his risk limit above 1.3750?


GVI Forex Jay  11:18:18 GMT - 02/07/2011  
This was behind the drop in the euro just now:

Monday, February 07, 2011 6:00:15 AM
*(GE) GERMANY DEC FACTORY ORDERS M/M: -3.4% V -2.0%E ; Y/Y:19.7 % V 20.5%E
- No revisions (Trade the News)

I posted this over the weekend on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 11:26 GMT February 5, 2011
Economic Data : Reply
Next week the US calendar is very light. This is from the BHF FX Briefing report in our blog and worth noting:

Next week, we are expecting weaker economic data, particularly from Germany, on account of the severe winter weather in December.




GVI Forex  john  11:11:54 GMT - 02/07/2011  
- Friday EURUSD low 1.3544
- Pivot support #1 = 1.3529
- 20-day average 1.3495



GVI Forex john  11:03:52 GMT - 02/07/2011  
- German industrial orders much weaker than expected. If Germany is dependent on demand from peripheral Europe, its hard to see where future growth will be coming from. Is current growth based on past momentum?


GVI Forex john  22:05:36 GMT - 02/06/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Mon: Far East: CN- Lunar New Year, AU- Retail Trade, Retail Sales, JP- Leading Indicators, Europe: DE- Industrial Orders, North America: No Major Data.

  • Street demonstrations in Cairo continue Flight-to-safety risk.

  • EU Leaders Summit did not produce major results. But slow deficit progress underway. Market neutral.. 

  • U.S. monthly employment gains of +36K disappointing, but dismissed due to technical factors. USD positive..

  • Bernanke focus on fiscal issues a weight on fixed income markets. Higher rates supporting USD.

  • Slow calendar this week. Markets will be looking for a theme.

  • Liquidity-driven EUR demand may be abating.





Mtl JP  19:54:39 GMT - 02/04/2011  
 
CB 13:23 - Ben's bigger problem: he is printing it but it ain`t rotating, despite recent headline bubbled that Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Most banks in the U.S. expect loan delinquencies and charge-off rates to improve in 2011, a Federal Reserve survey showed, as standards eased and demand increased for business lending.

I suppose the headline reflects FED`s enthustic optimism generated by the little hook in the red circle of the bottom chart.

The theory of the standard American bankers is that when we start to see loan demand turning up (as represented by the little hook in the forementioned red circle) it is a signal the financial system is getting giddy and that, in a logical extention, prospects for job creation are up.



GVI Forex john  16:16:20 GMT - 02/04/2011  
CNBC reporting market RUMORS Mubarak to resign. Take this with a grain of salt. Crude down.


GVI Forex john  16:08:02 GMT - 02/04/2011  
- We were expecting an active day and got one.
- CAD has provided some unexpected volatility with two releases out of line with expectations.
- This move not justified by PMI alone. Suggests some underlying CAD vulnerability.
- Some saying EURUSD weakness due to recent EUR liquidity squeeze abating.
- Others watching U.S. bond yields rising 10-yr last 3.63% +8bp. You can't ignore this.
- Still waiting for anything out of the EU Summit (forget it) and Egypt (news pending?).




dc CB  16:06:14 GMT - 02/04/2011  
The Fed purchased $7.27 bln of 2013-2015 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $28.81 bln


Chicago sc  15:55:27 GMT - 02/04/2011  
Looks like the markets got stuck short USDCAD. This move was certainly was not justified by the data.


to dr unken katt   15:50:34 GMT - 02/04/2011  
2600


nyc ws  15:29:53 GMT - 02/04/2011  
katt the right side of the chart did not show... What is the target you are showing?


to dr unken katt   15:18:21 GMT - 02/04/2011  
 
,


GVI Forex john  15:15:14 GMT - 02/04/2011  
Hard to trust the Ivey PMI data, but they are raising some doubts about the employment data out earlier today.


Mtl JP  14:36:37 GMT - 02/04/2011  
Jay 14:30 - thanks for the "strong growth" qualifier.

How does one distiguish it from, for example, strong growth in money supply inflation and players demanding compensation for purchasing power erosion via higher yield ?


GVI Forex Jay  14:30:43 GMT - 02/04/2011  
JP, that is true when investors flee bonds because of inflation or other concerns. When yields rise because of strong growth, it is a positive.

Note how the euro benefited from rising yields until yesterday's meltdown when rates backed off after Trichet.


Mtl JP  14:27:08 GMT - 02/04/2011  
US Yields as key:
Specifically, rising yields on US treasuries means investors are selling US govt paper.
This means players want to hold more risky assets.
Bottom line: it is a negative for the US dollar.


GVI Forex john  14:15:40 GMT - 02/04/2011  
- Just reading an analysis by someone I trust who has no ax to grind. He said the bottom-line on the report was that the data were "encouraging". He attributed the poor headline data to industries that are highly susceptible to weather and that the data will snap back when the distortions are worked out of future figures. That is why EURUSD has not gained.
- Yields on the 10-yr note are higher 3.58% +2bp. Watch them they are key.


dc CB  14:03:58 GMT - 02/04/2011  
 
From: NYFRB
To: PDs
Subject: Mission Critical
--------------------------------------------------------
First, welcome aboard to the 2 new members of our team.
In two hours we will be releasing another $7bln in exchange for some of the Treasures you bought from us last week.

We are now on Big Red Alert. Goal for today: paint us a big red candle - aka side reversal. Good luck trading. Kill some shorts for Hank.


nyc ws  13:53:53 GMT - 02/04/2011  
The #s were to out of whack but bond market taking it on the chin.


Israel dil  13:41:56 GMT - 02/04/2011  
then looking deeper into the data, and it really looks not too bright.

currently: Rocky Balboa 6 vs. HeliBenny 2

will QE manage get to 7 ?


Israel dil  13:34:20 GMT - 02/04/2011  

with the extreme weather during January and looking at the total unemployment rate improving. you can't call the data negative.


Israel dil  13:31:30 GMT - 02/04/2011  

*** Unemployment Rate (JAN) out at 9% vs. 9.5% exp. and 9.4% prior. ***


dc CB  13:23:40 GMT - 02/04/2011  
 
area of concern for Ben?


GVI Forex john  12:52:13 GMT - 02/04/2011  
For those who may have wondered, many have looked for and not found a correlation between employment data in Canada and the U.S. in any given month. Given the close integration of the two economies, this may raise questions about the statistics in either or both countries.

FWIW both nations work together on trade statistics, which is one reason why both release the trade data simultaneously.


GVI Forex john  12:20:58 GMT - 02/04/2011  
A bit more on Canada:
Constructive report. Canada regaining jobs lost during the recession. If improvement is sustained, the BoC will consider hiking rates in the Spring.

Positive news for CAD.


GVI Forex john  12:07:27 GMT - 02/04/2011  
CAD spikes higher on much stronger than expected employment data. Market shrugs off unemployment rate.


Singapore SGFXTrader  11:55:25 GMT - 02/04/2011  
Joe, i hope u can long Eurusd.

Can u post you long eurusd please?

Thanks in advance =)


London SMS  11:55:24 GMT - 02/04/2011  
I know where you're at Joe - so gimme an inside trade her. Watcha gonna do bro?


Cambridge Joe  11:46:27 GMT - 02/04/2011  
SMS// One way bet.... yes..... find out what I do .... then do the opposite..... you'll be minted ! LOl !


London SMS  11:38:04 GMT - 02/04/2011  
As I understand it - bad employment figs will be ignored as an anomoly (weather etc) whilst good stats will be ..... and there's the rub. Somewhere here is a one way bet but which way?


GVI Forex john  11:25:21 GMT - 02/04/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Double shot of Canadian data Friday
- Key employment figures for January see jobs gaining by 15.0K vs. +30.4K in December. Economy slowing ?
- Ivey PMI. due later is a raw (non-seasonally adjusted) figure and thus tends to be volatile.

Either release could be market-moving for CAD.


GVI Forex john  10:44:38 GMT - 02/04/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

FRI: North America: US- Employment. CA- Employment, Ivey PMI.

  • Australia and Japan only major centers open today due to New Year celebrations.

  • Street demonstrations in Cairo at risk of escalation today Flight-to-safety potential?

  • EU Leaders Summit not seen producing major results. But slow deficit progress underway. Market neutral.. 

  • U.S. monthly employment gains seen at about +150,000. Neutral outcome below +200K..

  • Bernanke focus on fiscal issues a weight on fixed income markets (10-y last 3.55%). USD negative?

  • Bund yields up today 3.23%, +1.9bp. Trichet mildly hawkish, nut less so than expected. EUR constructive.

  • Canadian employment data due next.





GVI Forex john  23:29:55 GMT - 02/03/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Double blast of Canadian data Friday includes key employment figures and Ivey PMI. Could be market-moving data for CAD on top of everything else.


GVI Forex john  23:00:24 GMT - 02/03/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

FRI: EZ Far East: CN- Lunar New Year. Europe: No major data. North America: US-  Employment. CA- Employment, Ivey PMI.

  • New Year celebrations seeing several Asian markets closed.

  • Street demonstrations in Cairo at risk of escalation on Friday.

  • Traders reacting to political events rather than anticipating them. Unclear where events headed broadly. 

  • January PMI Service data Thursday generally stronger than expected.

  • ECB and Fed as expected Thursday. ECB was mildly hawkish and the Fed mildly dovish

  • U.S. monthly employment data on Friday. Critical with Fed jobs focus.





GVI Forex john  18:02:31 GMT - 02/03/2011  
- Watching EURUSD (down) also EUR weaker on its major crosses.
- Keep in mind when EUR starts to turn, we often see it in its crosses first.


Boston BR  16:12:06 GMT - 02/03/2011  
Advil is a pain killer.


London SFH  16:04:25 GMT - 02/03/2011  
What dat? Like Viagra?


ldn ct  16:00:53 GMT - 02/03/2011  
I could use some advil.


Boston BR  15:49:05 GMT - 02/03/2011  
The forex market is running out of Advil to relieve the pain being inflcited. Am I seeing this correctly?


Israel dil  15:47:38 GMT - 02/03/2011  
2.764 is kind of nice target for today, any idea at which price it comes?!


Israel dil  15:43:58 GMT - 02/03/2011  
today's range is exactly 250% fibonacci extension of yesterday's range.


nyc s  15:43:26 GMT - 02/03/2011  
Looks like it may be over for now....


GVI Forex Jay  15:38:46 GMT - 02/03/2011  
Purk, range is now 209 pips


Amsterdam purk  15:35:11 GMT - 02/03/2011  
Not over yet Jay....


Mtl JP  15:31:39 GMT - 02/03/2011  
john 15:19 re Bernanke today:

NPC Luncheon with Ben Bernanke, Chairman, Federal Reserve at 12:30NYT; remarks will begin just after 1:00 p.m., followed by a question-and-answer session

"Participants agreed that greater public understanding of the Committee's interpretation of its statutory objectives could contribute to better macroeconomic outcomes". - FOMC November 2-3, 2010
Newly elected National Press Club President Mark Hamrick will be putting the questions to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
-
The mandarins at the FOMC appear to have come to the conclusion that all their meddling in the market is not producing by them stated desired results: they are running out of room to lower rates and their $600 billion spray is not producing jobs. (at least not productive ones)

How do you assess market risk of sticking Ben "lapse in judgment w/Maria" Bernanke out in an attempt to regain market credibility - just about the only thing the FED has in its arsenal to peddle ?



Israel dil  15:23:34 GMT - 02/03/2011  
Purk, bigger and juicer stops lay below 1.3550. I think so ;-)


Amsterdam purk  15:19:50 GMT - 02/03/2011  
Err Dil, shooting back to 137 can be done in a tick when stophunting is over.
When this is not stophunting we will see 13578.


GVI Forex john  15:19:33 GMT - 02/03/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- PMI data from almost everywhere (except maybe China) have been very strong recently. Waiting for confirmation from other statistics.
- EURUSD taking another leg downward. Wonder if we head back up later to pivot 1.3700 again????
- Bernanke up later today.


Israel dil  15:16:59 GMT - 02/03/2011  
Purk the knight, please make it to print few pips lower than 1.3578 as my order to buyback some EUROS is there. please be kind :-)


Amsterdam purk  15:15:39 GMT - 02/03/2011  
yes sir, 200 range is gone now.


Ochicinco 15:08:30 GMT - 02/03/2011  
EUR.USD would seem to be a failed effort to sustain any balance near or above 1.37. Look for 1.2Ochocinco to print.


nyc s  15:06:50 GMT - 02/03/2011  
Purk is that a 250 pip day range?


Amsterdam purk  15:04:21 GMT - 02/03/2011  
13628 done now, looking for 250 pip range at 13578.
But i guess it is worth a shot here to long, SMALL. I am waiting.


Amsterdam purk  14:11:11 GMT - 02/03/2011  
Stophunting in full progress now in e/u, we will see where it ends, maybe at 13154... or just back to 138 handle, because the weekly range is met. Rangeexpension will lead us to 13628-13588.


GVI Forex john  14:07:47 GMT - 02/03/2011  
- Trichet comments coming off as more dovish than the markets had been expecting. Looks like this assessment is behind the tumble in EURUSD.
- Question at ECB appears to be how to respond to imported (commodity) inflation. Not an issue of home-grown demand.
- Egypt remains a worry.


GVI Forex john  12:30:57 GMT - 02/03/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Thu EZ ECB. US- Weekly Jobless, Productivity, Service PMI, Factory Orders, Natural Gas, Bernanke.

  • New Year celebrations seeing Asian markets mostly closed today.

  • Street demonstrations in Cairo continue to be a weight on EURUSD. Traders only reacting to political events rather than anticipating them..

  • Unclear where events are headed in the broader region. 

  • January PMI Service data for the E-Z and U.K. both better than expected. EZ retail sales data disappointing.

  • ECB meeting today. Dealers wait for tone of Trichet comments. Bonds pricing in a hawkish tone. EUR positive

  • Bernanke speaks on the economy Thursday. Expect him to be dovish. USD negative?



GVI Forex john  23:09:48 GMT - 02/02/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Thu Far East: CN- Lunar New Year, AU- trade. Europe: CH- Trade, GB Service PMI, EZ- Service PMI, Retail Sales, ECB. North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Productivity, Service PMI, Factory Orders, Natural Gas, Bernanke.

  • Focus on street demonstrations Wednesday in Cairo. Traders prefer to react to political news rather than anticipate events.

  • Still unclear where events are headed in the broader region. 

  • January ADP private employment data better than expected. Analysts cautious about ADP data after last report.

  • Major cyclone hits Northern Australia. China now closed for Lunar New Year.

  • ECB meeting Thursday. Dealers wait for tone of Trichet comments. Bonds pricing in a hawkish tone. EUR positive

  • Highlights: Service PMIs (EZ, GB and U.S.), ECB, Weekly Jobless.

  • Bernanke speaks on the economy Thursday. Expect him to be dovish.





dc CB  20:05:48 GMT - 02/02/2011  
 
30-yr Yield hits Highest Level Since April 2010: Treasuries are back at their worst levels of the session as the sell off accelerated following today's Permanent Open Market Operations. The sell off comes after it was announced that dealers were looking to sell roughly 6.5x the amount the Fed was willing to buy back. On the selling, the 10-yr yield moved back above 3.50% for the first time since December 12th, and the 30-yr hit 4.653%, its highest level since late April. (briefing.com)

Refundiing annc for next Tues,Wed, Thurs.
$32 bln in 3s, $24 bln iin 10s, and $16 bln in 30s. respectively.

Permanent Open Market Operations: The Fed purchased $2.21 bln of 2021-2027 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $14.31 bln.

Tomorrow's POMO takes place in 2016-2018 maturities with the Fed looking to purchase $7-$9 bln worth.


GVI Forex john  15:56:05 GMT - 02/02/2011  
- fwiw U.S. treasuries appear to be taking off the flight to safety trades from earlier. Could be they are not trusting the tendency of TV media to exaggerate events for ratings.


GVI Forex john  15:51:26 GMT - 02/02/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- On top of political developments. Economic calendar chock full of market moving releases on Thursday and Friday.
- Commodity currencies are mixed. AUD weaker (Cyclone Yashi?)
- There has to be a lot of capital seeking refuge out of the Middle East. Many potential homes: USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, etc. Looking for safety not yield.
- Dealers mostly REACTING to political news, not anticipating it.

MORE TO ADD ?


Israel dil  15:12:46 GMT - 02/02/2011  
Ind! Rafe... 14:48 GMT February 2, 2011

i think 1.3575 will set the EUR/USD bias for the medium term. so betting on TEST of that level is not too wild. then we may look further.


Ind! Rafe...  15:09:36 GMT - 02/02/2011  
sorry. typo. it would be sub 1.27, 12776 to be exact.


Ind! Rafe...  14:48:22 GMT - 02/02/2011  
dil// monthly charts show a much lower target from our discussion last week. the corrected downside target could be sub 1.28.


Israel dil  14:32:50 GMT - 02/02/2011  
1,3745 is not a wild bet for EUR/USD today

downgrades + Egypt and the Joker Yasi and 13575 this week may happen


Israel dil  14:25:58 GMT - 02/02/2011  
i will not bet a single cent it was only in the air


to dr unken katt   14:23:47 GMT - 02/02/2011  
in the air doesnt count

i do it all the time


GVI Forex john  14:17:50 GMT - 02/02/2011  
- Reports military shots were fired into the air.
- EURUSD weaker Watching flight-to-safety trades.


HK [email protected]  14:17:45 GMT - 02/02/2011  
Mubarak supporters attacking the opposition demonstrators.
Knives, stones and gunshot.


GVI Forex john  14:14:43 GMT - 02/02/2011  
- just heard live shots fired according to Al Jazeera. No mention by whom.


GVI Forex john  13:46:14 GMT - 02/02/2011  
- EURUSD weaker on the day, EUR mostly weaker on its crosses. Keep an eye on them.
- Market shrugging off ADP report. Note they have quietly started to revise down the December Private Jobs data. They have a tendency to rewrite their previous history after the fact.
- Not much data left for the rest of the day.
- Keeping an eye on Egypt.


GVI Forex john  12:50:45 GMT - 02/02/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Wed North America: US- ADP Jobs, Wkly Energy.

  • Markets await street reaction to news Mubarak will step down in September.

  • Army calls for populace to return to normal life.

  • Still unclear where events are headed in the broader region. 

  • January ADP private employment due. Market will ignore anything out of line with consensus (+150K).

  • Major cyclone hitting northern Australia shortly.

  • China now closed one (week) for Lunar New Year. 





GVI Forex john  23:11:59 GMT - 02/01/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Wed: CN- Lunar New Year holidays. Europe: EZ- PPI. North America: US- Weekly Mortgage Stats, ADP Jobs, Wkly Energy.

  • Mubarak announces he will step down in September. Awaiting street reaction.

  • It is still unclear where events are headed in the broader region. 

  • EZ, CH, U.K., and U.S. PMI data out and strong. USD lower vs. Europe.

  • Chinese mfg PMI data remained relatively weak. Lunar Year starts Wednesday.

  • RBA kept policy steady and took a less hawkish future policy posture than expected.

  • U.S. sees ADP private jobs data Wednesday. Data saw a big January miss. 





London SMS  21:08:01 GMT - 02/01/2011  
The only part of Africa not currently mortgaged to China is North Africa. China has ruthlessly supressed any form of religious fundementalism and could even teach Russia a lesson or two I don't doubt. But I am sure they are viewing all this and salivating over the opportunties that will arise from the power vacuum across the entire lattice of N.Africa and now the M.E.. These revolts have been initiated by the educated middle classes not 'the great unwashed'. All it took was organised and continuous demonstrations and internet connection for the first week. Simples.
The royal houses must be preparing for the worst and could well see it manifested - time to put on the bicycle clips chaps.


GVI Forex john  21:00:14 GMT - 02/01/2011  
Mubarak.. Smooth transfer of power...to serve remainder of term...widen number of eligible candidates...change Presidential terms...


GVI Forex john  19:46:14 GMT - 02/01/2011  
Mubarak Statement Shortly...


Israel dil  19:15:25 GMT - 02/01/2011  
sure JP, he must discovered that trading oil pays better than US embassy staff (ok, the ambassador) at the UN :-)


Mtl JP  19:12:37 GMT - 02/01/2011  
dil and then I ll be indebted to neocon Bolton for $120++/bbl crude


GVI Forex Jay  19:11:50 GMT - 02/01/2011  
Mailman, when the year began forecasts were for a stronger dollar, partly based expectations that the US economy would outperform Europe. The focus then shifted, helped by easing soveregn debt concerns, to expectations of interest rate hikes by the ECB (UK, etc) on inflation concerns while the Fed lags with its focus on US jobs. A look at bund vs US 2 yr yields is revealing in this regard.

This has turned fx forecasts upside down with many now calling for a weaker dollar. Even events in Egypt failed to turn the tide for more than a day.



Israel dil  19:06:04 GMT - 02/01/2011  
Bolton: If Mubarak falls in Egypt, Israel should bomb Iran

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/02/bolton-israel-bomb-iran-mubarak-falls/


Israel dil  18:53:53 GMT - 02/01/2011  
John, in Egypt there is factory of Nissan and Toyota will start manufacturing in 2012 too. due the relative stability during the last 30 years money starts to flow into Egypt. if they have economical death wish, then they go ahead with the riots and so on. I think MB will take the time to learn how it works and then they will take Egypt really down.


Richland QC Mailman  18:49:54 GMT - 02/01/2011  
Following political chaos in Egypt and brewing political tensions now in Jordan, shouldn't the market be risk averse and going to safe traditional havens like the USD, the swissie and gold? Question: Why is the reverse happening?

----------------------------------------------------------

SINGAPORE — The world economy has begun improving but is beset by problems such as high unemployment and rising prices which could fuel crippling trade protectionism and violent social unrest, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday.

"The pre-crisis pattern of global imbalances is re-emerging," Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in a speech in Singapore.

"Growth in economies with large external deficits, like the US, is still being driven by domestic demand. And growth in economies with large external surpluses, like China and Germany,
is still being powered by exports," he said.

"As tensions between countries increase, we could see rising protectionism — of trade and of finance. And as tensions within countries increase, we could see rising social and political
instability within nations — even war."


GVI Forex john  18:48:45 GMT - 02/01/2011  
- So far no reaction to the headline.
It may be because:
1) the markets do not trust the news source.
2) they are still worried about what comes next.
3) its already priced in.
4) a combination of the above.

Any thoughts?


Mtl JP  18:47:41 GMT - 02/01/2011  
john IF Egypt-investing players start to return to Egypt what will they be selling: Gold, Euro and/or US t-bills ?


GVI Forex john  18:41:22 GMT - 02/01/2011  
- Seems to us that EURUSD could gain on hopes of a peaceful resolution of the Egyptian political crisis?


dc CB  15:39:34 GMT - 02/01/2011  
FWIW
Rumors swirling that Mubarak to leave immediately
Tue, Feb 01 2011, 15:33 GMT - Forex Live
By: Jamie Coleman

Not sure if there is any validity to the rumor, but if true...I would be very carefully holding "risk"... There is no way to convince me that an autocracy can transition to democracy peacefully in a region where democracy is rare. Should it come to pass, I would head to the sidelines and let the dust settle...



to dr unken katt   15:20:43 GMT - 02/01/2011  
cable didnt blink


Israel dil  15:19:22 GMT - 02/01/2011  
crash it when most wait it will rise.


to dr unken katt   15:17:58 GMT - 02/01/2011  
whats the real force behind the euro sentiment?


Israel dil  15:06:29 GMT - 02/01/2011  
interesting ISM, US FED may increase rates earlier than the ECB.


GVI Forex john  14:09:18 GMT - 02/01/2011  
- As usual, watching EUR crosses today. At the moment the EUR is mostly weaker, even though the EURUSD is up. Slight warning sign on the EUR even though the USD is broadly weaker.


GVI Forex john  12:36:16 GMT - 02/01/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: North America: US- Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, API Energy

  • Lots to focus on today with EZ, CH and U.K. PMI data out and strong. USD lower vs. Europe.

  • U.S. manufacturing PMI data due later today. . 

  • Egyptian politics still unsettled. Be wary of the next headline. Million man march today. Events coming to a head?

  • It is still unclear where events are headed in the broader region. 

  • Political events often don't have the trading staying power of economic trends.

  • Chinese mfg PMI data remained relatively weak. 

  • RBA kept policy steady and took a less hawkish future policy posture than expected. 





GVI Forex john  23:10:39 GMT - 01/31/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: Far East: CN- NBS PMI, RBA policy Decision, Europe: CH- Retail Sales, PMI, EZ- PMI, Unemployment, GB- Mfg PMI, M4 Money Supply. North America: US- Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, API Energy

  • Egyptian political trumps other factors still unclear where things are headed in the region. 

  • From a trading perspective, political events often don't have the staying power of economic trends.

  • Weak German December retail sales were followed by above target flash EZ HICP (CPI). ECB targets HICP. 

  • USD economic news mixed. 

  • Watching flight to safety trades.

  • EURUSD focused on neutrality at 1.3700.

  • Actice calendar Tuesday with key PMI data due.





Dubai SAS  16:52:36 GMT - 01/31/2011  
Mailman - are you still holding your euro shorts ? we might see 1.3635 - 55 before US tom !


Dubai SAS  16:50:55 GMT - 01/31/2011  
Richland QC Mailman 16:38 GMT January 31, 2011

Been long this pair since thursday with a stop at 9360 offer, came close today but held ... think i might close this around 9470 - 75 if we get there again !


GVI Forex john  16:50:32 GMT - 01/31/2011  
- USDCAD spiking higher on Canadian election fears.
- Canadian PM has named a campaign manager due to threats the opposition will force a vote.


Israel dil  16:48:47 GMT - 01/31/2011  

Saudi exports


Chicago sc  16:44:11 GMT - 01/31/2011  
RF- I don't think so. The U.S. cannot use Saudi sour crude. We cannot refine it. We are much more dependent on Nigeria.


Richland QC Mailman  16:38:59 GMT - 01/31/2011  
We are still in awe with usd/chf. It seems always finds a way to resurrect from the tomb.


HK [email protected]  16:36:53 GMT - 01/31/2011  
Any threat to Saudi is 100% an American issue.
And a very costly one.



lkwd jj  16:32:37 GMT - 01/31/2011  
how much will it cost the saudis to keep the canal open is the bottom line. they stand to lose the most if it gets shut.


dc CB  16:22:22 GMT - 01/31/2011  
The Fed purchased $7.72 bln of 2013-2014 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $37.24 bln

for the next 2 days the POMO will be smaller.
Tues - $1-2bln TIPS
Wed- $1.5-2.5 on the Long end 2021-2027
Thurs and Fri back into the 7-8Bln range.


GVI Forex john  16:20:57 GMT - 01/31/2011  
Brent Crude reportedly over $100.


HK [email protected]  16:20:35 GMT - 01/31/2011  
As an alternative to the Suez canal I suggest to build a railway to the REDSEA through Israel, which will serve as a airplane carrier carrier .


London ex  16:19:43 GMT - 01/31/2011  
We already saw on Friday that the Middle East flight to safety trade favors gold, oil, USD, U.S. treasuries, etc.


Israel dil  16:16:34 GMT - 01/31/2011  
how USD negative? how US sole problem?

Suez canal: all overseas and air transportation methods are USD dominated, sky rocketing prices there and Asia starts to suffer, and big time. any other views?

Suez canal is famous for connecting Asia and Europe much faster, how the US suffers solely?

US navy will re-use Suez canal faster than lightening after it gets close, but not the commercial services, so how the USA to suffer solely?

as last hit, will Egyptians use explosives to blow the Suez canal?


HK [email protected]  16:14:55 GMT - 01/31/2011  
nyc ws 16:11 GMT January 31, 2011

Right as you said.

So in order to contain the problem to Egypt the US will have to shoulder most of the expenses(additional to the 1.5B$ yearly).


nyc ws  16:11:35 GMT - 01/31/2011  
RF you make it sound like a US problem. There is a risk of political contagion and this is a global problem if it spreads. This has forex market implications.


Israel dil  16:08:07 GMT - 01/31/2011  
John, it gets very interesting:

- Mohamed Ghanem, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, calls Egypt to stop pumping gas to Israel and prepare the Egyptian army for a war with it’s eastern neighbor.

- CAIRO—Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood's agreement to back the secular, liberal opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei as lead spokesman for the country's opposition groups in reform negotiations suggests the group's once sidelined moderate wing is regaining strength

USA calls and names Mohamed ElBaradei as the one to bring democracy in Egypt and the same time your read such agenda running in the background. let's see the world reacting to closure of the Suez canal and who will get harmed from it fast and directly.


HK [email protected]  16:04:35 GMT - 01/31/2011  
MB was blessed by The Muslim Brotherhood.

This person can't even speak in Egyptian Arabic.

Once the Muslim brotherhood will gain power through him, they will close the Suez canal for the American navy and the defence of the Gulf may even collapse.

The US has no choice at this moment, but to stream massive and costly support for Mubarak.

Thus dollar negative!!!


Chicago  sc  16:01:50 GMT - 01/31/2011  
Another test of 1.3700 looming?


GVI Forex john  15:56:46 GMT - 01/31/2011  
- MB says it rejects new Egyptian government CNBC.
- EURUSD slips modestly.


dc CB  15:03:10 GMT - 01/31/2011  
now in the POMO hour
Fed will purchase $6-$8B worth of 2013/2014 maturities


GVI Forex john  14:55:25 GMT - 01/31/2011  
- Regional Chicago PMI considerably stronger than expected. Highest reading since July 1988. U.S. January national manufacturing PMI is due on Tuesday.
- EURUSD trying to establish support at the 1.3700 line. EUR broadly higher on its major crosses.
- Commodities are mixed with crude and gold weaker. Silver and Nat Gas are up.


GVI Forex john  13:52:13 GMT - 01/31/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
Two key releases today..

- EZ flash HICP (CPI) +2.4% y/y well above target putting the spotlight on the ECB to tighten policy at some point.

- U.S. Core PCE below rumored 1.0% target floor. (+0.7 y/y). keeps pressure for a policy tightening at bay.

- Data a weight on the USD.



GVI Forex john  13:35:54 GMT - 01/31/2011  
- U.S. data in line


GVI Forex john  13:27:32 GMT - 01/31/2011  
- Both Personal Income and Core PCE data due shortly.
- Personal income gives us a handle on potential spending by consumers.
- Core PCE is inflation is said to be the number the Fed targets.


GVI Forex john  12:46:18 GMT - 01/31/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: North America: CA- GDP, PPI. US- Personal Income, Core PCE inflation, Chicago PMI.

  • Political instability in Egypt trumping other factors at the moment. It is unclear where things are headed generally in the region. 

  • Could be resolved in a number of days or weeks. Political events often don't have the staying power of economic developments.

  • Month-end period for institutions generating some position squaring.

  • Very weak German December retail sales earlier, but flash EZ HICP (CPI) above target. ECB targets HICP. 

  • EURUSD pivot point =1.3645 for Monday. Support  #1 =1.3545; Resistance #1 = 1.3707. 

  • Watching flight to safety trades.

  • EURUSD has recovered from Friday close after tumbling early. EUR major crosses are better.





GVI Forex john  12:13:33 GMT - 01/31/2011  
- We heard a major tanker company indicate a little while ago that traffic through the Suez Canal has been running normally.


GVI Forex john  10:04:54 GMT - 01/31/2011  
- EZ HICP running above target. At some point the ECB will have to respond unless the increase is temporary. EURUSD is well above its lows of the day and the EUR is up on its major crosses.


GVI Forex john  21:40:42 GMT - 01/30/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: Far East: JP- Industrial Output. Europe: DE- Retail Sales EZ- flash HICP. North America: CA- GDP, PPI. US- Personal Income, Core PCE inflation, Chicago PMI.

  • Political instability in Egypt took hold of the markets as the day wore on Friday.

  • Unclear where things are headed generally in the region. Could be resolved in a number of days or weeks.  

  • Political events don't have the staying power of economic developments.

  • Month-end period for institutions generating some position squaring.

  • EURUSD 1.3700 pivot point =1.3645 for Monday. Support level #1 1.3545. 

  • Watching flight to safety trades as a guide.





GVI Forex  john  15:48:23 GMT - 01/28/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
Check out the EURUSD spots and crosses now...
	Last	chg	high	low
EURUSD=	1.3625	-107 	1.3746	1.3624
EURJPY=	112.12	-166 	113.91	112.06
EURCHF=	1.2866	-113 	1.2989	1.2864
EURGBP=	0.8606	-14 	0.8653	0.8595
EURAUD=	1.3715	-119 	1.3877	1.3716
EURCAD=	1.3616	-22 	1.3678	1.3606
EURNZD=	1.7584	-18 	1.7812	1.7594



dc CB  15:47:05 GMT - 01/28/2011  
Egyptian riots starting to take on a militant tinge, CNBC reports
Fri, Jan 28 2011, 15:28 GMT - Forex Live

What started as a grass-roots uprising against the Mubarak regime has taken on an Islamist tinge, CNBC reports. The banned Muslim Brotherhood has become active in the protests, according to reports. That seems to have upped jitters among traders, ever more fearful that oil cargoes through the Suez Canal could be disrupted. We're in the midst of a flight to safety with the market quiet long now of EUR/USD. If options-related interest is filled in around 1.3650, stops at 1.3630 look vulnerable. Oil is up, stocks are down and US yields are lower on the day...Looks like a classic flight to quality


London ex  15:42:07 GMT - 01/28/2011  
Yes its all a flight to safety into the weekend.


GVI Forex john  15:38:07 GMT - 01/28/2011  
- Crude, gold, silver natural gas etc, getting a lift from Egyptian unrest.
- Unrest cannot be good for stox.
- EURUSD weaker. EUR also down on its major crosses.
- Commodity currencies are mixed. AUD and NZD are up. CAD weaker.

Bottom Line...
Looks like there is no way you can go home EUR vs. anything amid political worries. No telling what happens before we open early Monday.

Other thoughts ??





nyc ws  15:23:37 GMT - 01/28/2011  
Markets waking up to Egypt unrest?


dc CB  15:23:30 GMT - 01/28/2011  
ES futures this morning classic Larry Williams OOPS trade.


to dr unken katt   15:14:41 GMT - 01/28/2011  
my shorts are falling down and i love the feeling tp 2300

auf wiedersehen


GVI Forex  john  15:04:35 GMT - 01/28/2011  
Univ of Michigan data SHOULD be USD constructive unless stocks rally. correlation trade.


GVI Forex john  13:59:35 GMT - 01/28/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
Thoughts on GDP - -
- Analysts pointing out an improvement in net exports offset a decline in inventories.

- Although it impacts GDP negatively, a decline in inventiories is seen by most analysts as a positive, because presumably they will have to be replaced in the future. On the other hand, rising inventories suggest slower growth in the future because they will have to be wound down.


dc CB  13:58:26 GMT - 01/28/2011  
 
pipped above high, but so far saved.
POMO $7-9bln in the 2018-2020 range today 10-11AM
after 11 may make another run .


GVI Forex john  13:33:38 GMT - 01/28/2011  
GDP roughly in line. Analysts will want to dig through the details now. Keep in mind, this report is based on partial data and is subject to big revisions.

On balance it should be USD constructive, but we will see!


dc CB  13:23:21 GMT - 01/28/2011  
 
the wind-up


dc CB  13:18:46 GMT - 01/28/2011  
another crux day...will there be a boffo GDP report that crushes the Treasury market? Yesterday the employment report stopped what was looking like a breakout of long Yields.


GVI Forex john  12:53:30 GMT - 01/28/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: North America: US- 4Q10 GDP, University of Michigan Survey

  • Monthend period for institutions generating some position squaring.

  • U.S. 4Q10 GDP seen +3.5% vs +2.6% in 3Q10.

  • EUR cash funding needs by banks behind EUR strength?

  • EUR remains a primary focus. EURUSD 1.3700  pivotal level. Actual pivot point =1.3711. 

  • Keep in mind Fed QE2 is a USD devaluation strategy.

  • Watching weakness of crude and oil prices.





GVI Forex  john  11:54:55 GMT - 01/28/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
Note change signs!
	Last	chg	high	low
EURUSD=	1.3722	-10 	1.3746	1.3680
EURJPY=	113.02	-76 	113.91	113.03
EURCHF=	1.2941	-38 	1.2989	1.2928
EURGBP=	0.8613	-7 	0.8653	0.8614
EURAUD=	1.3781	-53 	1.3877	1.3784
EURCAD=	1.3651	13 	1.3678	1.3638
EURNZD=	1.7717	-18 	1.7812	1.7708



GVI Forex john  10:26:34 GMT - 01/28/2011  
- Keeping an eye on the EURUSD spot and major EUR crosses. Often they tel us a lot about where we are headed. EUR currently a little soft on its crosses, but that can change over the day.


GVI Forex john  09:13:00 GMT - 01/28/2011  
- With not a lot of news due today from the U.S. the focus is likely to be on the price action and capital flows.
- We are in the end of month period, which is important for institutions.
- Focus back on the EURUSD 1.3700line (1.3711 is our pivot calculation).



GVI Forex john  23:20:16 GMT - 01/27/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: Far East: JP- Household Spending, CPI, Unemployment, Retail Sales. Europe: EZ- M3 Money Supply, CH- KOF indicator. North America: US- 4Q10 GDP, University of Michigan Survey

  • Usual active Japanese month-end calendar early. 

  • Quiet data calendar shaping up for U.S. Friday.

  • Looks like its been EUR funding demand might be behind EUR strength.

  • EUR remains a primary focus. Thursday saw hawkish statements by ECB Member Bini Smaghi. 

  • We are still using EURUSD 1.3700 as a pivotal level. Actual pivot point =1.3711. 

  • Fed QE2 is a USD devaluation strategy.

  • Crude ending weak. Last $85.33 (WTI/Brent spread trade).



GVI Forex john  20:39:21 GMT - 01/27/2011  
- Now that we have distanced EURUSD from 1.3700. Its tone has improved as expected.
- We have been hearing chatter for several days about EUR cash funding requirements for banks and supply, even though the cost of money is cheap, not readily available,
- We wonder if its this shortage of EUR supply is what keeps seeing the unit pop higher?
- On the other hand, the Fed is providing lots of USD supply (QE2).

A slow day for data Friday will make it easier to focus on the price action (technicals). Also it may provide a more clear picture of the true supply.demand equation.

Any thoughts ??


GVI Forex Jay  18:43:25 GMT - 01/27/2011  
1.37 has printed 3 days in a row but if it closes here would be the first close above it


GVI Forex john  18:36:44 GMT - 01/27/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- At the risk of jinxing this, our 1.3700 psychological pivot seems to be working well.

- Expect this line to set the tone of the markets depending on which side of neutrality we trade.

- Noticing that the EURUSD to equity correlation is working very loosely.


.


GVI Forex john  16:32:34 GMT - 01/27/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
Spot gold last $1318.90, -24.51.


GVI Forex john  16:30:26 GMT - 01/27/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Mixed patterns EUR off its highs vs. USD but mostly in positive territory on its major crosses.
- Commodities weak. Crude last $86.36, -1.33 (WTI/Brent spread?). We quote WTI. Gold making new lows for the move. Silver down. Natural Gas modestly easier.
- Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) mixed. Big move down in AUD .9905, -75.
- Equities easier. Fixed Income markets weaker as dealer set up for the 7-yr auction later.


Bottom-line USD trying to recover. Use EURUSD 1.3700 as psychologically pivotal.


to dr unken katt   15:10:54 GMT - 01/27/2011  
all u need is to buy 2 homes in detroit 1000$ a piece in order to make up the stats


GVI Forex john  15:02:54 GMT - 01/27/2011  
- Pending Homes sales data another strong housing number, albeit off heavily depressed levels.


GVI Forex john  13:57:58 GMT - 01/27/2011  
Lousy weekly jobless data, but a backlog of previous claims due to harsh weather came through. Bottom-line, it is hard to assess the data. For me I will be skeptical until the weekly figure can make a sustained break below 400K per week.

Durable Goods headline figures were weaker than expected but can be distorted by a few big ticket items. We understand the underlying data were not that bad.

On balance, there is nothing here to bail out the USD. Demand will have to come from elsewhere if it comes!


GVI Forex john  12:45:08 GMT - 01/27/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: North America: US- Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Homes Sales, Natural Gas, 7-yr Auction

  • Busy data calendar shaping up for U.S.

  • USD did not like FOMC keep policy steady with no end in sight for QE2. 

  • Keep in mind QE2 is in part a USD devaluation scheme.

  • EUR remains a primary focus. Keep a keen eye on its crosses.

  • Today has seen hawkish statements by ECB Member Bini Smaghi. 

  • Inflation worries premature? Crude closing below the technically significant $88.00 line.





GVI Forex john  23:04:03 GMT - 01/26/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: Far East: JP- Trade. Europe: GB- Distributive Trades. North America: US- Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Homes Sales, Natural Gas, 7-yr Auction

  • Busy data day shaping up for Thursday mostly in the U.S.

  • The FOMC kept its policy steady as expected. Its key policy statement is being seen as mixed. 

  • No changes in policy appear to be imminent.

  • The USD is ending the day Wednesday with a soft tone.

  • EUR remains a primary focus. Keep a keen eye on its crosses.

  • Inflation worries premature? Crude closing below the technically significant $88.00 line. 

  • In crude, we show the 50-day moving average closing at 88.51 and 100-day at 84.82.

 


GVI Forex john  15:42:18 GMT - 01/26/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Much larger build than expected in crude oil inventories.

- Many have been touting predicted $100 spot oil price as a major future driver of higher inflation. Crude last $87.46, +0.20.



GVI Forex john  15:23:20 GMT - 01/26/2011  
- Be careful about rosy media reports about New homes sales. They are still running roughly at all-time lows for the series (post-WWII). Further gains would be welcomed but we are running at an annual rate of 25-35% of where we should be.

- EURUSD lacking demand so far today. Major EUR crosses are mixed to weaker.

- Gold, Silver and oil are mixed. Same for the commodity currencies (AUD,CAD, NZD).

- Oil inventories shortly...



GVI Forex john  13:29:36 GMT - 01/26/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- After they ran stops at 1.3720 earlier in EURUSD trade has turned mixed.
- EUR mixed on its major crosses. Watch them. They set the tone.
- In crude oil $88.38 50-day moving average has been key. 100-day average is distant at $84.70. Last $86.70. +0.48.
- Fixed Income prices are being marked down (higher interest rates) into the 5-yr auction later today.





GVI Forex john  12:34:14 GMT - 01/26/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: US- Weekly Mortgages, New Homes Sales, Weekly Crude Inventories, 5-yr Auction, Fed Policy decision, NZ (Thursday) RBNZ Decision

  • BOE Minutes out. It might be that they have been overtaken by events (4Q10 GDP)?

  • Perhaps targeting a single inflation rate is much too simplistic.

  • Not too long ago central banks targeted the money supply and that did not work either.

  • GBP spiked on the Minutes and then retreated.

  • EUR remains a primary focus. Keep a sharp eye on its crosses.

  • Inflation worries premature? Crude holding below the technically significant $88.00 line . 





HK [email protected]  09:45:39 GMT - 01/26/2011  
All is correct, but GBP/usd wraps in it a big potential bull, with no connection to the fundamentals.

Looking complicated and lousy?
First signal of return of the bull is, let's say 10 points above today HI.
More conservative? wait for further signals.

GL/GT


GVI Forex john  09:41:07 GMT - 01/26/2011  
- GBP spikes higher initially on BOE minutes as concern about inflation come to the fore.
- Subsequently (yesterday) we saw negative GDP growth in 4Q10. The initial GBP surge has abated.
- Its hard or us to imagine an aggressive BOE tightening anytime soon.



GVI Forex john  23:27:42 GMT - 01/25/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: AU- Holiday, NZ (Thursday) RBNZ Decision, Europe: GB- BOE Minutes

  • Active session for data Tuesday:

  • a) U.K. preliminary 4Q10 GDP unexpectedly contracted. GBP hit hard on the news.

  • b) Australian quarterly CPI data unexpectedly eased. AUD fell.

  • c) U.S. Conference Board Survey considerably stronger than forecast.

  • EUR remains a primary focus. Early indications will come via its crosses.

  • Inflation worries premature? Crude below technically significant $88.00 line . 

  • Canadian CPI softer than forecast. Core CPI contained.

  • BOE Minutes the focus early Wednesday





GVI Forex john  18:12:53 GMT - 01/25/2011  
- 2-yr auction seen as so-so.
- Not sure what the USD is sensitive to anymore.

Note:
- GBP fell sharply on weak GDP
- AUD eased on softer than expected CPI
- CAD weaker on softer than forecast CPI

Its difficult to predict how the USD will react to any economic news. Presumably at some point we settle back into a more "normal" response to news. The fact is the USD reacts to news but its hard to predict how.



Chicago sc  16:31:40 GMT - 01/25/2011  
Looks like a succession of stop hunts today. Fine if you are fast on you feet. Otherwise...


Chicago  sc  15:51:18 GMT - 01/25/2011  
Dil and ex
Excellent calls...


Rexburg Stubbs  15:19:18 GMT - 01/25/2011  
GVI Forex Jay 15:17 GMT January 25, 2011

I'm to say that there is the macro view and then there is the shorter term views to boot. Have a nice day Jay.


GVI Forex Jay  15:17:13 GMT - 01/25/2011  
Stubbs, we all know your view so suggest sitting back and let your trades and P&L do the talking. I am not taking sides here and opposing views is what makes a market. gl


Rexburg Stubbs  15:14:49 GMT - 01/25/2011  
I'm to respectfully say USD strength is the result for today.
It takes multiple views to make a market. No fight picking from me.


London  ex  15:10:28 GMT - 01/25/2011  
dil- yes agree it looks that way.


Israel dil  15:08:07 GMT - 01/25/2011  
today, no matter the news but USD is to trade weaker.


GVI Forex john  15:05:07 GMT - 01/25/2011  
- CB Consumer Confidence another strong number. Much higher than expected.
- Should give equities a lift. Your choice on whether good news is constructive or not for USD ??



GVI Forex john  14:15:19 GMT - 01/25/2011  
- Case Shiller data suggest housing market remains weak. Hardly a surprise!
- Problem is the data are very old. November 2010.
- Watch EUR crosses. Turning mixed again?



GVI Forex john  12:06:50 GMT - 01/25/2011  

DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Canadian CPI data softer than expected across the board. Keeps rate hike pressures off Central bank.
- CAD initially weakens sharply vs. USD.


GVI Forex john  11:03:01 GMT - 01/25/2011  
- Seeing spot crude (WTI) currently at $86.58, -1.32. Markets getting mixed signals on demand/inflation. Gold 1324.60, -10.51.


GVI Forex john  10:59:20 GMT - 01/25/2011  

USD MOVING AVERAGES
Entry: Target: Stop:

Calendar: CA- CPI, US- Case-Shiller. Conference Board Confidence Survey, 2-yr Auction

  • U.K. preliminary 4Q10 GDP unexpectedly contracts. GBP hit hard on the news.

  • What do data imply for BOE policy with inflation well above target. Double-dip?

  • Australian quarterly CPI data unexpectedly eased. AUD is weaker. Will data impact last? 

  • March RBA rate hike now in doubt, especially after floods?

  • EUR remains a primary focus. Early indications will come via its crosses.

  • Inflation worries premature? Crude below technically significant $88.00 line . 

  • Key Canadian CPI data early Tuesday. US- Case-Shiller, Conference Board Confidence Survey, 2-yr auction.





GVI Forex john  10:45:35 GMT - 01/25/2011  
Update..

- Soft Aussie CPI takes March rate hike off the table? See alert and chart earlier today (scroll down)
- U.K. GBP has seen the GBP hit hard (data, Chart and immediate comments below).

- Question do these data releases have "legs" ? Will they last in terms of market impact. Would a weaker GBP weigh on EUR? I really don't know. Any ideas?



GVI Forex john  23:27:56 GMT - 01/24/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Calendar: Australia Quarterly CPI, JP- BOJ Decision. GB- GDP 

  • This remains a EUR market. The EUR opened weaker vs. USD and its crosses, but turned in the U.S. morning. 

  • A weaker EUR would have been a change from its recent pattern.

  • January flash EZ PMIs were flat,  but Germany continues to outperform.

  • Inflation pressures and worries starting to surface. Crude closing below technically significant $88.00 line . 

  • Key Canadian CPI data early Tuesday. US- Case-Shiller, Conference Board Confidence Survey, 2-yr auction.





GVI Forex john  20:36:58 GMT - 01/24/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Turn of the EUR (strengthening) on its crosses signaled the turn in the EURUSD earlier.
- Some say the break in crude price to below $88 was a major technical development today. Its supposed to give equities a lift.
- will EURUSD follow shares if they rally?



dc CB  16:11:02 GMT - 01/24/2011  
The Fed purchased $8.87 bln of 2016-2017 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $22.36 bln

on the high end of the 7-9bln range.


to dr unken katt   14:52:40 GMT - 01/24/2011  
why is euro goin up ?


Israel dil  14:50:18 GMT - 01/24/2011  
no news ct, the market keeps on doing the same as the last two weeks. all is normal, still :-)


ldn ct  14:48:27 GMT - 01/24/2011  
Is there any news out???????


GVI Forex john  14:40:58 GMT - 01/24/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Mixed start today with no strong themes early in NYC.
- Bitterly cold. One of the coldest days in years.
- EUR off its lows vs. the USD. Mixed on its major crosses. Earlier it had been weaker across the board on its crosses.
- No common theme in the commodity currencies. Gold, silver and crude are mixed.
- No obvious impact from bombing at Moscow's main domestic airport.
- U.S. sees 2, 5, and 7 year auctions this week. Also Fed decision is due on Wednesday.



Mtl JP  14:31:16 GMT - 01/24/2011  
there is no need to insult a noble animal like the elephant Revdax.
-
all is well: “Beijing will raise the minimum wage by 20.8% in 2011... increase to 1,160 yuan ($175) a month… take effect on Jan. 1… The city will also raise pension and unemployment benefits…” - bbrg Dec 28
-
IF I know my Chinese communist dirigists, it is my expert guess-estimate that street price-inflation runs ±40-45%


HK REVDAX  14:10:53 GMT - 01/24/2011  
JP//The Chinese economy is like an elephant, being guessed of how it looks by 9 blinds, as the old fable goes...


Mtl JP  13:40:29 GMT - 01/24/2011  
lower cad would allow - make easier for - BoC to finally raise int rate which both the FinMin and Carney are crowing about.
-
with respect to China and emerging markets: post 0/Hu shindig:
SocGen crafts strategy for China hard-landing - telegraph

Société Générale fears China has lost control over its red-hot economy and risks lurching from boom to bust over the next year, with major ramifications for the rest of the world.
-
Personally I like sceptical and prudent money managers.


dc CB  13:19:49 GMT - 01/24/2011  
POMO today Fed will purchase $7-$9 bln worth of 2016/2017 maturities through its Permanent Open Market Operations. 10-11AM EST.

Yields jocking setting up for 3 auctions, starting tomorrow thru Thurs 2s,5s,7s....each day results 1PM est.

FMOC annc Wed.


GVI Forex john  13:13:15 GMT - 01/24/2011  
JP- recent efforts by China to slow its economy have been felt adversely in the commodity currencies.


Mtl JP  13:07:39 GMT - 01/24/2011  
john 13:02 - bad for commodity currencies CAD - do you mean negative as in usdcad UP ?


GVI Forex john  13:02:25 GMT - 01/24/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Calendar: North America- No Major Data 

  • This remains a EUR market with the unit easier vs. USD and its crosses. 

  • A weaker EUR would be a change from its recent pattern.

  • January flash EZ PMIs were flat,  but Germany continues to outperform.

  • Inflation pressures and worries starting to surface. Lots of focus on $100 crude? . 

  • Chinese additional tightening speculation would be bad for commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD).

  • No major U.S./Canadian data are slated for Monday.

 





GVI Forex john  21:49:18 GMT - 01/23/2011  
- I saw somewhere that there was a story in The Australian that the RBA is likely to raise rates again in March.

Is this the proper time with the lasting effects of the flooding yet to be determined? Furthermore politically, and we all know that central banks are not political, this would be an odd move, imho.



GVI Forex john  21:42:10 GMT - 01/23/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? 24 Jan 11 Far East-Europe 

Calendar: AU- PPI, EZ- Flash Manufacturing/Service PMIs, New Industrial Orders

  • It has been a EUR market with the up vs. USD and its crosses. This starts a new week .

  • Waiting now to see flash EZ PMIs confirm recent strong German ZEW and Ifo surveys. Core Europe continues to outperform.

  • Inflation pressures starting to surface here and there. Lots of focus on $100 crude? . 

  • Chinese additional tightening speculation bad for commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD).

  • No major U.S./Canadian. data slated for Monday.

 





dc CB  16:52:30 GMT - 01/21/2011  
Permanent Open Market Operations: The Fed purchased $8.36 bln of 2018-2020 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $18.96 bln.

Monday's POMO will take place in 2016/2017 maturities with the Fed looking to buy $7-$9 bln worth.

also Auctions up next week. 2s,5's,7s...Tues, Wed, Thurs
(but then as ZeroHedge has shown, POMO will just be buying them back in the next round)


Paris ib  16:19:25 GMT - 01/21/2011  
Agreed. Short term rates are a whole nother story. Higher short term rates are net positive generally. Especially if they are tied in with growth, strong exports and low inflation (what's not to like?). Of course higher short term rates are not so positive for longer term interest rates so, again, the connection is there but it's just not a direct one. As the Euro crisis eases.... spreads between countries are likely to fall which means higher yields on Bunds and lower yields on peripherals. But it's the easing of the tension which is Euro positive not higher Bund yields.


GVI Forex john  16:14:29 GMT - 01/21/2011  
- good points.
- another weight on bunds is concern that "extraordinary ease" by the ECB will soon come to an end.


GVI Forex john  16:11:14 GMT - 01/21/2011  
 
Not a spectacular chart but here is some recent history...


Paris ib  16:09:18 GMT - 01/21/2011  
Well then the only connection is that a strong economy, linked with improved growth outlook and good export performance, is seeing a sell off in Bunds (fair enough, bonds tend to perform less well during a growth period and Bunds had benefitted from a flight to quality during the euro crisis which now appears to be over, for now). The same positive economic outlook is seeing short covering and investor flows into Euros. Again fair enough. But there is no direct link per se between the two. Money is not coming back to Europe to buy long German bonds (unless the investor wants to hold to maturity and doesn't mind losing money on a mark to market basis in the meantime).


GVI Forex john  16:04:47 GMT - 01/21/2011  
ib- Id appreciate your thoughts or those of anyone else.

My take is rising yields for "good" reasons should be positive for a currency. Rising yields for "bad" reasons, such as uncontrolled inflation, should be bad for a currency. Bund yields appear to be rising for "good" reasons and thus the EUR is gaining.


Paris ib  15:58:02 GMT - 01/21/2011  
So what would be the connection? Bunds are getting sold, so yields rise... that's why the yields rise on selling pressure. Or is the assumption that capital is attracted to the higher yield? You buy a bond while the yield is rising and you are losing money. You may as well just park your Euros in cash. Buying Euros to buy falling Bunds doesn't really make sense as an investment strategy.


GVI Forex  john  15:53:21 GMT - 01/21/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR Profile (USD and Crosses)
10:53	Last	chg	high	low
EURUSD=	1.3586	110 	1.3589	1.3450
EURJPY=	112.26	39 	112.32	111.64
EURCHF=	1.3016	-16 	1.3073	1.2978
EURGBP=	0.8497	21 	0.8528	0.8461
EURAUD=	1.3699	62 	1.3737	1.3636
EURCAD=	1.3464	29 	1.3528	1.3411
EURNZD=	1.7898	-18 	1.7935	1.7782



GVI Forex john  15:50:51 GMT - 01/21/2011  
- Long term (10-yr) EZ yields (German bund) yields have been rising all week. Perhaps they have been fueling the EUR rise.
- EUR is up against almost every major currency from the Thursday close (except CHF).
- More strong German data today (Ifo Survey) continues to fuel expectations for strong 2011 growth in CORE-EZ). The periphery remains a worry.
- Today is more a EUR market than a USD one.
- U.K. saw VERY weak December retail sales data earlier today, however the GBP has since rebounded.
- Markets are setting up for another round of PBOC tightening very soon in the next couple of weeks. This could hurt the currencies of the commodity exporters.




Mtl JP  13:38:25 GMT - 01/21/2011  
and a decidedly underwhelming price-reaction
CanFinMin probably well justified to paternalize the spenders with his mortagage tightening rules.


GVI Forex john  13:32:56 GMT - 01/21/2011  
- Stronger than expected Retail Sales give CAD a strong boost. Remember this was November data.


GVI Forex john  13:15:34 GMT - 01/21/2011  
- Canada retails sales due at the bottom of the hour. Although I complain that the data are ancient, they can impact the CAD.


GVI Forex john  12:38:31 GMT - 01/21/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Calendar: CA- Retail Sales

  • Its a EUR market with the unit up vs. the USD and on its crosses.

  • Headline German Ifo survey data even stronger than expected but other data mixed. Core Europe continues to outperform.

  • Recent data tend to support the notion that the U.S. and global economies are recovering. USD gains only on bad European News. 

  • Chinese additional tightening speculation bad for commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD).

  • Canadian Retail Sales data due. No major U.S. data slated for today.

 



GVI Forex john  09:57:50 GMT - 01/21/2011  
- Chatter Peoples Bank of China monetary tightening could come as early as this weekend.
- Cooler heads say next month is more likely.
- Risk of a government-induced slowing of the Chinese economy to contain inflation continues to be a weight on the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD).


GVI Forex john  23:07:39 GMT - 01/20/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Calendar: Europe: DE- Ifo Survey GB- Retail Sales

  • Interesting Day with early weakness in bund prices spilling over into U.S. treasuries.

  • Better than expected U.S. weekly jobless data fueled a further sell-off in U.S. treasuries.

  • Recent data tend to support the notion that the U.S.  and global economies are recovering.

  • USD mainly gains only on bad European News. 

  • Chinese data today assures additional tightening. Bad for commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD).

  • Key German Ifo data due early Friday. No key U.S. data are slated

 





dc CB  19:27:49 GMT - 01/20/2011  
 
30Y yield tiptoed above its Dec high.

catalyst for the afternoon sell off ...the 10Y TIPS auction.

Yield was 1.17% against expectations of 1.11%. Coverage was 2.37x compared to 2.91x last.


GVI Forex john  19:20:45 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Another very bad day in fixed income land. The U.S. 10-yr note was last 3.455% +12 bps. For the uninitiated, that is a large single day move. I'm guessing the USD does not like tis price weakness. That's the way I think also, but am never sure how traders will interpret news these days. Life used to be simpler but not easier.


Rexburg Stubbs  18:33:26 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say silver spot long at 27.45 is a bargain hedge IMVHO


Rexburg Stubbs  18:21:53 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Appetite For Destruction


GVI Forex john  18:13:06 GMT - 01/20/2011  
 
- EURUSD finding a floor?
- Commodity Currencies (AUD,CAD, NZD) all hit following strong Chinese data very early today. More policy tightening has been priced in.
- U.S. equities generally down, Gold and Silver are weak. Crude oil also down despite repeated talk recently about prices above $100 later this year.
- U.S. treasuries are weak.
- Worrisome NZ inflation report much earlier today (see chart). Higher rates next week?



Rexburg Stubbs  17:37:46 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say that one day the market will be stunned when The Ben Bernank pulls the plug on POMO just like that guy did to the runway lights in the movie Airplane...just to send a signal and see if anyone remembers who sits in the control tower.


Rexburg Stubbs  17:24:47 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say that one day Maria Barteloni says "eur at multi month high!" the next in subdued tone- "USD is somewhat higher on the heels of commodity price declines".

I'm to say commodity prices are declining because USD demand is strong as portfolios liquidate back into the safety net.


Rexburg Stubbs  16:50:15 GMT - 01/20/2011  
HK REVDAX 16:43 GMT January 20, 2011

I'm to say that if you know it will go bankrupt then why would you buy the dips like an Enron? I'm to say that many will go hooves up holding on to the eur failed fantasy.


HK REVDAX  16:43:44 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Stubbs//yes, euro is a man-made failure. but before it goes bankrupt, many here may go bankrupt first shorting it.

THE MKT CAN DO ANYTHING AND IT WILL DO ANYTHING!

GOOD NIGHT...OOOOOOOOOOZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ


Rexburg Stubbs  16:41:53 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say that the Maria Bartiloni's are about to say that eur was a BTFD because the price wiggled higher so now they feel comfortable calling out the idea after they did not do anything.


Rexburg Stubbs  16:33:20 GMT - 01/20/2011  
....But eur is a STFR because it is anothr man made total failure.


Rexburg Stubbs  16:30:34 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Rev- I'm to say physical gold is always a buy on dip or rally because it is neither here not there but simply is


Rexburg Stubbs  16:29:08 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say sorry for the many typos. The Hip Hop EUR is distracting from the keyboard soliloquy attempts .


HK REVDAX  16:26:18 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Stubbs//i would say that BTFD of gold with a stop at today's low might yield some money for some cheap wine tomorrow.


Rexburg Stubbs  16:23:26 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Rev-

I'm to say that with such confidence you should simply BTFD.
Otherwise, if conventional tactics aren't enough, there is always the nuclear mutually assured destruction in the maddening race to the bottom. Besides how will all the 50 Cent wannabe's roaming around the planet by that shiny new dreamy BMW 318? hihihi


HK REVDAX  16:18:29 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Stubbs//The only position I am carrying is short $/CAD about an hour ago. But the way I see euro is this: a low close today would deliver a shoot up tomorrow and all that navy bombardment would not stop its rise.


Rexburg Stubbs  16:15:37 GMT - 01/20/2011  
HK REVDAX 16:13 GMT January 20, 2011

I'm to say then sit back, turn your hat sideways, loosen your belt so your pants sag and guzzle some beer or rice dream sake and BTFD mate.


HK REVDAX  16:13:44 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Stubbs//I don't understand all that hip hop sensation in shorting euro. The fact of the matter is euro is being locked into a motionless state.


Rexburg Stubbs  16:02:19 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Singapore SGFXTrader 15:55 GMT January 20, 2011

I'm to say 10-4 and Roger that Delta unit. The great beast has been awakened. Will "lay down a blanket" when the beast has taken the bait.


Singapore SGFXTrader  15:55:02 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Rexburg Stubbs 15:37 GMT January 20, 2011

Bro, please call for USS Missouri to increase their firing power and cruise missile attacks on the coast!

We need to break down the firewall completely @ 1.34



Singapore SGFXTrader  15:47:52 GMT - 01/20/2011  

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Commander just gave new target.

Capture the Eurusd flag at 1.3360 for a start!


Singapore SGFXTrader  15:41:55 GMT - 01/20/2011  

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Just call for airstrike at Eurusd 1.34.

Commander-in-chief just gave orders to go full attack!

Airborne troopers jumping in at 0100hrs (singapore time - GMT + 8)


Rexburg Stubbs  15:37:11 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Singapore SGFXTrader 15:32 GMT January 20, 2011

I'm to say that the USS Missouri must be back in action to soften the beach- Fire!


Singapore SGFXTrader  15:32:24 GMT - 01/20/2011  

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Artillery shells please bombard Eurusd. I need to break the last defense [email protected]

After 1.34 firewall is demolished, all censored break lose!



Rexburg Stubbs  15:31:13 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say Maria B is about to have something to report.
Liquidation teams are moving in like S.W.A.T.


Rexburg Stubbs  15:21:10 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say that even that kid, Maria Bartiloni can call the market after it happens and the news is stale.


Chicago sc  15:21:05 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Stubbs- Its been a difficult couple of weeks, but you are right that the charts are just history. This has been proved in spades this year.


Singapore SGFXTrader  15:19:52 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Can u believe it?

My trading size today = 33 standard lots, shorting eurusd and audusd.

OMG, WTF!


Rexburg Stubbs  15:15:50 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say that people won't comment until after the charts already moved. Lack of commitment here is quite telling of the street.


Singapore SGFXTrader  15:12:48 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Bro, we are on our own. Market is against us.

One of the key US results is a flop =(

May the force be with us on the shorting wagon!


Rexburg Stubbs  15:09:10 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say that without a USD slaughter after the horrible US econ data then it must be buy (USD) the news, right?!


Rexburg Stubbs  15:03:38 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Haifa ac 14:58 GMT January 20, 2011

Profit taking = profit giving.

Takes two to tango in a zero sum game


Haifa ac  14:58:46 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Chicago sc 14:43 GMT January 20, 2011
What's the buzz? : Reply
Heavy volume in S&P futures early. Liquidating markets?//

Liquidation?
occurs after a prolonged decline when Last of the brave longs is bailing out mostly on margin calls
Market is at 2 year high
At most you can call it some Profit taking




Rexburg Stubbs  14:52:40 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say put your putter back in it's bag and get the Sasquatch ready. Tee-time in 8 mins.


Chicago sc  14:43:09 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Heavy volume in S&P futures early. Liquidating markets?


London Mick  14:36:59 GMT - 01/20/2011  
eurusd is being held up by firmer euro crosses


Rexburg Stubbs  14:33:16 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say that it is beginning to smell like the portfolio liquidation risk mgt teams are moving towards the trading desks. One-way, all-asset long, Ben Bernank trades getting strained.


Singapore SGFXTrader  14:11:38 GMT - 01/20/2011  

Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 0.98850 Target: 0.98003 Stop: 0.9920
Shorting signal seen for Audusd.

4 1-hr bearish candle. Now, we are at the 5th candle.

Please note that Audusd has corrected sharply since above parity.

Immediate target is 0.98003


Singapore SGFXTrader  14:07:45 GMT - 01/20/2011  

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.34451 Target: 1.3360 Stop: 1.35
Shorting signal seen for Eurusd.

Two 1-hr candle seen. Now, we are looking at the 3rd candle.

Eurusd will retrace to 1.3360 to form a "M" first before heading down to 1.32750.


Rexburg Stubbs  14:03:46 GMT - 01/20/2011  
nyc s 13:59 GMT January 20, 2011

I'm to say that I'm not to argue either. You are my friend- at least that much is clear! Thank you for the constructive tone and conversation.
This market is to break hard when it does. Very confused portfolio guys out there atm. I'm to say if (IF) the flash hits 1.3377 you might see rapid deterioration lower. That looks like a MOB (Make or break) on the Stubbs Screen.



nyc s  13:59:07 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Stubbs I am not arguing with the direction but the cheerleading will not bring it there any sooner. I respect someone who backs it up with real money so no argument from me on this either.


Rexburg Stubbs  13:57:55 GMT - 01/20/2011  
I'm to say that my trades maybe work, maybe not work- but unlike the Ben Bernank ("We will not monetize debt") at least you know up front the real honest viewpoint.


Rexburg Stubbs  13:54:02 GMT - 01/20/2011  
nyc s 13:50 GMT January 20, 2011

I'm to say that it is better to put the money where the mouth is. If I'm not to do what I say then I must be dis-informing like an investment banker.

I'm to ask- Which is most preferred, truth or traditional bankster BS?


HK REVDAX  13:52:44 GMT - 01/20/2011  
s//There is nothing wrong with Stubbs' style. This is the land of the free....


nyc s  13:50:32 GMT - 01/20/2011  
Stubbs what I like about you is you do not talk your book (not!) but do you have to repeat it so often. We all know your position and view.


Rexburg Stubbs  13:49:06 GMT - 01/20/2011  
BUZZ UP- I'm to say that there is rumor of a eur style flash crash on the horizon.


GVI Forex john  13:49:02 GMT - 01/20/2011  
- Much chatter that bund prices fell first.
- USD up on higher treasury yields.


GVI Forex  john  13:47:16 GMT - 01/20/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
U.S. fixed income gettting hit on jobless data
	Last	chg	ytd
3M lbr	0.303	0 	0.3
US-2Y	0.597	2 	-1.3
US-3Y	1.016	3 	1.6
US-5Y	1.992	6 	-1.9
US-7Y	2.735	6 	2.5
US-10Y	3.390	5 	10.0
US-30Y	4.554	3 	21.4



GVI Forex john  13:01:38 GMT - 01/20/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Calendar: CA- Leading indicators U.S.- Weekly Jobless, Existing Homes Sales, Philly Fed. LEI, Nat Gas, Crude Oil

  • Trade in EUR in the early days of the new year has remained volatile and dangerous

  • It seems as soon as a trend is established it peters out.

  • USD only improves on bad European News. 

  • Chinese data today assures additional tightening. Bad for commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD).

  • Instability in U.S. treasuries bears watching. FI trade Wednesday was subdued.





GVI Forex john  22:45:24 GMT - 01/19/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Calendar: CN- GDP, Industrial Output, CPI, Retail Sales, CH- ZEW Sentiment, GB- CBI Trends 

  • Trade in EUR in the early days of the new year remains  volatile and dangerous.

  • As predicted, the EURUSD only improves on bad European News. 

  • Germany stirred the pot Wednesday after concerns re Greek debt.

  • Japanese officials warn on JPY strength, but this is not a speculative move?

  • Instability in U.S. treasuries bears watching. FI trade Wednesday subdued.





to dr unken katt   14:51:48 GMT - 01/19/2011  
yea its economic model developed by robert mugabe
everyone there is a bilioneare


GVI Forex Jay  14:51:40 GMT - 01/19/2011  
EURO just took a hit on this:

Wednesday, January 19, 2011 9:43:51 AM
(GR) Germany govt advisor Feld: Greece is unable to fully repay its debt; Germany needs to set aside funds for more Greek aid - Handelsblatt

***Note that earlier in the session, there were press reports that the German govt was preparing emergency plans to restructure Greek debt; wants Greece to repurchase bonds with EFSF assistance. The Germany Finance Ministry later denied this press speculation.
(Trade the News
)


Rexburg Stubbs  14:48:33 GMT - 01/19/2011  
Belgrade TD 14:44 GMT January 19, 2011

I'm to say the best job for last two years has been to work at The Goldman Sachs- take fresh trillions of treasury issuance, mark it up then sell to the Ben Bernank. Free US Treasury arbitrage at its finest.


Belgrade TD  14:44:01 GMT - 01/19/2011  
off topic ... but the best job in the past two years was the production of paper for printing bank notes ... especially in the USA ... but now we know what to do for next crisis ... lol


Richland QC Mailman  14:43:03 GMT - 01/19/2011  
HI ks. Your outlook may be valid on the decisive break of 9300. But for now, we are seeing some good technical rebound and should 1.0066 gives way, a new bullish wave would already be in place.


philadelphia caba  14:40:45 GMT - 01/19/2011  
just wondering where your fair value come from..?


to dr unken katt   14:32:52 GMT - 01/19/2011  
potash


kl fs  14:31:16 GMT - 01/19/2011  
Mailman, the fair value for usdchf is around 0.82-0.85, my bet is we will see it within the next 12 months, even allowing for downside overshooting to 0.7x handle


Rexburg Stubbs  14:31:10 GMT - 01/19/2011  
Belgrade TD 14:25 GMT January 19, 2011

I'm to agree fully with that scary outlook. Someone was warning us of this a while back. Told us to stock up on long term food supplies etc. Food will become a great currency yet again it seems.


Richland QC Mailman  14:30:16 GMT - 01/19/2011  
Thanks TD for that point of view too. Oil has been traditionally a good investment option indeed.


Richland QC Mailman  14:28:24 GMT - 01/19/2011  
Thanks Dee. Would probably research more about it...

Returning to the world of forex, let us take a look at USD/CHF and EUR/CHF... Do we see some fundamental shift or purely technical bounce, especially USD/CHF (see weekly chart) which shows a technical reversal. For as long as 9300 holds, then we could be looking at very juicy gains towards 1.0066 then 1.0530... Should this be the case, who would be willing to invest now in USD/CHF and let their monies stay there?

Any supporting or dissenting insights?


Belgrade TD  14:25:24 GMT - 01/19/2011  
when we look at all these great instability in the atmosphere and the effects of climate change ... then for me it all has to do with food ... but probably not in 6 months ... the only other thing that can give a nice profit is oil, as usual ... well, my point of view


Mau Dee  14:15:08 GMT - 01/19/2011  

Seriously speaking, some of the sovereign debt look good. Yield to call close to 10%. Wont be proper to name them here but i have it them for my funds.


Richland QC Mailman  14:11:03 GMT - 01/19/2011  
HI folks. Good Asian evening. Aside from forex, and perhaps gold, which financial instrument is worth investing right now with lucrative returns after 6 months to a year?

Your thoughts very much appreciated.


GVI Forex john  14:06:49 GMT - 01/19/2011  
JP- No doubt. but housing is still a major part of the economy.


Mtl JP  13:57:14 GMT - 01/19/2011  
john 13:50 at risk of sounding like Hu about the dollar, "improving employment depends on housing" is a "product of the past". House mortgage indebtedness is an albatross around individual's necks.


GVI Forex john  13:50:04 GMT - 01/19/2011  
- Demographically, U.S. new home production remains exceptionally depressed. All these metrics (below) should be running at twice the current levels. The upside is that excess supply is being run off and pent up demand is developing. . Chicken and egg question is housing demand depends on improving employment and improving employment depends on housing.


Mtl JP  13:14:45 GMT - 01/19/2011  
john 13:02 - WHAT'S THE BUZZ?

with respect to The USD trading weaker again. Needs bad news from EZ to rally. & Instability in U.S. treasuries bears watching.
-
odds of yield curve inverting ?


GVI Forex john  13:02:40 GMT - 01/19/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Calendar: U.S. Housing Starts/Permits, API Energy CA- BOC MPR, NZ CPI 

  • The USD trading  weaker again. Needs bad news from EZ to rally.

  • .Trade in EUR in the early days of the new year volatile and dangerous.

  • Japanese officials warn on JPY strength, but this is not a speculative move?

  • Solid U.K. .employment and CPI/RPI data keep pressure on BOE to tighten. 

  • Bank of Canada. Monetary Policy Report due. 

  • Chinese Premier Hu meeting with Obama in Washington, Forex to be discussed.

  • Instability in U.S. treasuries bears watching.





GVI Forex john  22:40:00 GMT - 01/18/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Calendar: JP-Industrial Output, EZ- Current Account- GB- Unemployment 

  • Trade in the EUR in the early days of the new year  volatile and dangerous. Mixed views on future ECB policy.

  • German ZEW data stronger than expected. Focus on Ifo Survey Friday.

  • Hot U.K. CPI/RPI data keeps pressure on BOE to tighten. 

  • Bank of Canada. No rate change. Future policy outlook less hawkish than thought. 

  • Chinese Premier Hu meets with Obama in Washington, Forex to be discussed.

  • Instability seen in U.S. treasury markets. Bears watching.





Rexburg Stubbs  22:15:14 GMT - 01/18/2011  
I just love the smell of fresh napalm in the morning.


Lahore FM  20:14:27 GMT - 01/18/2011  
Rexburg Stubbs 17:57 GMT January 18, 2011

no need to apologize my friend.i only mean to say let's keep our heads cool,more so when the market favours our trading ideas...


dc CB  19:31:52 GMT - 01/18/2011  
GVI Forex john 16:41 GMT January 18, 2011
: Reply
ws- Take your choice. Markets no longer react the way they used to. By my way of thinking if foreigners (China etc) are dumping U.S. bonds,

john. the FED is buying bonds...it now owns more than the Chinese did before they started selling. The FED is screwing up "normal" market relationships......tomorrow they come in with another $7Bln. Today it was just a TIPS buy, small billions. That's one of the reasons why I post about POMO.

The Fed purchased $1.74 bln of 2013-2040 TIPS through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $4.94 bln. Tomorrow's POMO takes place in 2013/2014 maturities with the Fed looking to purchase $6-$8 bln worth.



hk ooozmeeh  18:43:53 GMT - 01/18/2011  
stubbs...have u seen a monument built for a critic, to this date i havent seen one in my place mate? i would really praise him had there been one..lol....gt to u...


Tokyo Rana  18:35:22 GMT - 01/18/2011  
to dr unken katt 18:0 dear friend,wat do u trade?wat do think short usd$?keep ur good work going...happy trade,


Rexburg Stubbs  18:28:01 GMT - 01/18/2011  
Clint Eastwood is here?

“You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?”...“I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it.”...
“Go ahead, make my day”!!


Rexburg Stubbs  17:57:52 GMT - 01/18/2011  
I'm to apologize Mr.,FM friend.
You are right. Please forgive Mr Stubbs.


Lahore FM  17:50:49 GMT - 01/18/2011  
Stubbs dear,you take it all too seriously.let's ease off.no one is answerable for there posts or trades in the final analysis but to themselves only.

also epithets may not be used.its a forum rule to which we all subscribe.


Rexburg Stubbs  17:13:34 GMT - 01/18/2011  
I'm to say mass liquidations are in the wurx
Bitchez!


Rexburg Stubbs  17:08:16 GMT - 01/18/2011  
Fat Finger


Rexburg Stubbs  16:41:35 GMT - 01/18/2011  
I'm to say forget the PIGS, this is the BOSS HOG
USD+++++++


GVI Forex john  16:41:06 GMT - 01/18/2011  
ws- Take your choice. Markets no longer react the way they used to. By my way of thinking if foreigners (China etc) are dumping U.S. bonds, the USD should weaken. It used to be that weak U.S. bond PRICES (higher yields) was a USD negative.

BTW- that is my bias.

The other scenario is that higher bond yields (lower prices) will be seen as a USD positive. Problem with that view is if foreigners are selling their USD holdings, the cash derived from their sales will likely be converted into another currency.

We will just have to see how the markets will play out. This could become a major market factor either way if it persists.



GVI Forex Jay  16:38:02 GMT - 01/18/2011  
I can try to answer that. It depends on the mood in the market.

In the past (as illustrated by the PIGS bonds in Europe), a flight from bonds can be a currency negative. In this yeild starved world, it can also be a currency positive, especially if higher yields are driven by expectations of tighter monetary policy fueled by economic growth. It would be a negative it higher yields came from US deficit concerns but this seems premature to be a factor at this time.


Lahore FM  16:36:15 GMT - 01/18/2011  
higher yields buy usd.


nyc ws  16:29:53 GMT - 01/18/2011  
John are higher bond yields due to selling a usd+ or usd-?


Rexburg Stubbs  16:29:39 GMT - 01/18/2011  
GVI Forex john 16:23 GMT January 18, 2011

I'm to say that its the "new normal"


GVI Forex john  16:23:27 GMT - 01/18/2011  
- Lots of chatter in the bond markets about heavy selling of U.S. treasuries 10-30 yr maturities.
- Has not impacted the forex markets YET, but could impact trading, so be aware.
- Selling started about two hours ago.
- Some are saying a big West Coast fund manager might be the source of selling. Should not be hard to guess what name is being bandied about.


GVI Forex john  15:03:21 GMT - 01/18/2011  
- NAHB index weaker than expected 17 had been forecast.
- This home builder index remains extremely depressed by historical standards.


GVI Forex john  14:34:50 GMT - 01/18/2011  
- Bank of Canada keeps rate steady as expected, but takes a less hawkish posture than some had been predicting.

- The bank still sees a risk of headwinds.

- "Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. This leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada. Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered."




GVI Forex john  12:21:28 GMT - 01/18/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

Calendar:  U.S.- Empire PMI, TIC data. NAHB Index. CA- BOC Decision

  • German ZEW data again stronger than expected. Slowdown never comes.

  • U.K. CPI/RPI data keeping pressure on BOE to tighten. 

  • European Finance Ministers (ECOFIN). Additional EFSF funding decision deferred  German domestic opposition strong.

  • Bank of Canada today. No rate change likely, but insight into future policy likely. 

  • Further Chinese policy tightening expected before start of the lunar new year

  • Trade in the EUR in the early days of the new year  volatile and dangerous. Mixed views on future ECB policy.





Rexburg Stubbs  00:15:06 GMT - 01/18/2011  
Eur/USA in continued failure mode.
Longs are about to drop to their knees...Bitchez


Rexburg Stubbs  23:00:45 GMT - 01/17/2011  
I'm to say that the great experiment is failing right before our eyes. Eur/USA is about to drop like a stone.


GVI Forex john  22:26:30 GMT - 01/17/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- An ongoing forum discussion

HIGHLIGHTS: GB-CPI, DE- ZEW Survey, U.S.- Empire PMI, TIC data. NAHB Index. CA- BOC Decision.

  • European Finance Ministers meeting. No decision on additional EFSF funding  German domestic opposition strong.

  • Key German Sentiment data (ZEW) due Tuesday.

  • Some insight into future Canadian monetary policy likely Tuesday. 

  • Further Chinese policy tightening expected before start of the lunar new year

  • Trade in the EUR in the early days of the new calendar year is being deemed volatile and dangerous.

  • Mixed ECB readings to tighten in 2H11? Some saying yes. We wonder.





Rexburg Stubbs  21:07:00 GMT - 01/17/2011  
Paris ib 20:49 GMT January 17, 2011
What's the buzz? : Reply
Europe does not require external savings, it does not need to import foreign capital to finance itself. This is not the United States.

If required central European authorities will issue bonds in Euros at a low rate (as previously explained) and then these authorities will lend those funds, still in Euros, at a higher rate to peripheral governments.


Are you sure it is not the United States? I think that was clear after WW II when the US "imperialists" left the junk in ruins for euro folks to figure it out for themselves after a "simplified" communism was nothing but appetite for destruction.

You can say that somehow some country will issue eurozone debt at low rates to some random magical lender at artificially low rates, but who on the periphery- Turkey, Iran?

Obviously the US does not need to import foreign capital. Small detail you left out- Largest holder of US debt is the Fed. The Treasury can simply issue endless debt to the Ben Bernank via the Goldman Sachs at zero or sub zero rates. That's pretty hard to beat in currency creation schemes. But in the race to the bottom, the US economy as a single nation dwarfs any other. Hence, there is no new reserve currency (unless you are Iran). Maybe "money" becomes currency again and people trade in gold and silver backed assets but that is for another discussion.

So, yes reserve currencies have changed hands over the millennia but the euro experiment, the worst constructed fiat currency ever invented by design won't even make it another decade.


Israel dil  20:54:14 GMT - 01/17/2011  
submarine, Germans build the best submarines.


Paris ib  20:49:41 GMT - 01/17/2011  
Europe does not require external savings, it does not need to import foreign capital to finance itself. This is not the United States.

If required central European authorities will issue bonds in Euros at a low rate (as previously explained) and then these authorities will lend those funds, still in Euros, at a higher rate to peripheral governments. All the money involved will be European if necessary. There is no need for foreign money. Europe does not run a current account deficit with the rest of the world. Which means it does not need foreign capital.

Global reserve currencies come and go. It used to be Sterling, that's long gone. Things change. But you can't trade short term fluctuations on stuff like this, you have to watch what is happening on the margin. Is there going to be noise made about the Euro, the bail-out or are we going to have other news?


Rexburg Stubbs  20:47:13 GMT - 01/17/2011  
Paris ib 20:34 GMT January 17, 2011

Like I said the Germans don't actually have the dough to support anyone.

So where will the dough come from? Estonia, Ireland, Greece Portugal?

Like I said, if Germans can't anchor the boat, then there is no boat.


Rexburg Stubbs  20:43:25 GMT - 01/17/2011  
Paris ib 20:34 GMT January 17, 2011
What's the buzz? : Reply
Like I said the Germans don't actually have the dough to support anyone. Any bail out money will have to be borrowed.

Issued by whom? Borrowed from whom? Multiple countries borrowing what with bonds that they individually issue that are backed by what? Please don't say China will privately lend to one country at one rate and another at a different rate. And just what are the consequences to the currency of any member country defaulting?

Failure is imminent.


Paris ib  20:40:40 GMT - 01/17/2011  
That's a view.


happy 2011  20:40:28 GMT - 01/17/2011  
no Appetite for Destruction knowledge become a dope too!


Rexburg Stubbs  20:38:01 GMT - 01/17/2011  
I'm to say that with all the noise and shin kicking, USD is the super reserve currency without alternative. Every major commodity is still priced in USD for a reason. If it was so simple to demand everything to switch into a future failed eur currency, it would have already occurred. It is pure rubbish and nonsense to think that europia can agree on a currency yet individually issue debt without any bailout or formal unwinding plans because nobody wants to lose their own seat in the horse race. No unity, no action = just another failed fiat.


Paris ib  20:34:43 GMT - 01/17/2011  
Like I said the Germans don't actually have the dough to support anyone. Any bail out money will have to be borrowed. At a low rate. Only to be lent out at a higher rate. (Nothing is being given away. You may have missed that small detail.) Which means they make a profit on the deal. Like the Germans make a profit on being in Europe and in being part of the Euro. It's not like this great big act of charity on their behalf. No matter how pious they act.

Anyway whatever your case I assume you just want to short the Euro, which is fair enough, but don't support your call on some grandiose idea that the end is nigh..... it isn't.


Rexburg Stubbs  20:27:47 GMT - 01/17/2011  
Paris ib 20:19 GMT January 17, 2011

A failed experiment?

I'm to say "absolutely". While Eur may seem to have simplified things for some in europia, who prefer the easy entitlement lifestyle the same way communism was to simplify things there, it comes at the expense of someone. Germany is not to support the europian freeloaders. You cannot succeed as a socio-politico currency with so many divides. Small country sovereign bond vs social entitlement uprisings, solved by the IMF and China will not be the answer on a larger scale.

Appetite for Destruction.


Paris ib  20:24:04 GMT - 01/17/2011  
I was working in a dealing room during the EMU crisis of the early 1990s (500% overnight interest rates anyone?) and I have heard all this nonsense before. With the excuse of the EMU crisis Europe now has the Euro.... not a failed experiment, to the contrary what we have is a slow march down one road, only some people keep missing the road signs. How they manage to NOT see what is actually happening escapes me. But hey.... not really my problem.


Paris ib  20:19:56 GMT - 01/17/2011  
A failed experiment? Don't think so. Anyway time will tell and, for your information, while no-one in Europe is thrilled about the added layer of bureaucracy and all the idiots with snouts in troughs in Brussels, the Euro is actually very popular and will be defended first, because it's good for business and second, because it has popular support. The question is do the vampires in Brussels escalate the crisis in order to gain more power for themselves (over national fiscal policy for example) because they know that support for the Euro is strong.... or not?

Stop reading tabloids people. The Euro has simplified life in Europe in a lot of ways so that worked. The adds-ons are the tricky bits. But repeating, without thinking, what is reported in the 'press' shouldn't be encouraged. If some German politicians and officials are milking this for all it's worth it's because they have an agenda not because there is this big uprising in Germany about the Euro. Remember Germany is currently experiencing record growth right now and they know full well that the Euro is part of that story.


Rexburg Stubbs  20:10:03 GMT - 01/17/2011  
Paris ib 19:58 GMT January 17, 2011

I'm to say How do you know it's "pretty darn strong"? You are European. Did you pick up the phone and ring them? Eur is a failed experiment. Everyone already knows this. If there is crisis it is the same as the U.N.- Debate and find no unity. Call the IMF for solutions. The weak experiment will get weaker. It will no longer exist in less than a decade. Any small crisis nearly collapsed the experiment last year. A real crisis will cause the rift and failure to be as swift as an earthquake. This is all common knowledge. You can't issue non-sovereign debt against a so-called sovereign currency that everyone knows is just modern Deutsche Marks.


Paris ib  19:58:23 GMT - 01/17/2011  
How do you know that there is little support? They ring u n tell you that personally?

First this 'bail out' stuff needs defining. You're American you know how important definitions are. The Germans don't have piles of cash lying around to lend to anyone. They run a govt deficit just like everyone else in the industrial world. So this 'money' they will have to borrow first before they can lend it to anyone. And guess what? They (the Germans, the Europeans or whoever you care to mention) will borrow the funds at a lower rate than they lend them out at, which means they will make a profit on the deal. It's called a spread. It's how banks used to make money.

And support for the Euro is pretty darn strong in Europe, and even it would seem in China and Japan. Where support is not strong is in the USA, the UK and the usual suspects. Which means they may have the financial press cornered but 'they' don't yet have a monoply on the truth.



Rexburg Stubbs  15:40:36 GMT - 01/17/2011  
I'm to say that there is no interest in a stable Eur/USD. Drop it like a stone.


GVI Forex john  15:05:16 GMT - 01/17/2011  
- Politically there is little support in the German electorate for bailing out other nations in the EZ.


GVI Forex john  14:49:55 GMT - 01/17/2011  
- As w suggested earlier, there is no German interest in expanding the EFSF.


GVI Forex john  11:39:52 GMT - 01/17/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

HIGHLIGHTS: No Major Data U.S. Holiday

  • European Finance Ministers meeting to decide on additions to EFSF fund today. Additional funding is not assured with German politicians now dragging their feet.

  • Key German Sentiment data (ZEW and IFO) due over the week.

  • China policy tightening on Friday a weight on the commodity exporting nations tightens reserve requirement. Further tightening expected before the start of the lunar new year

  • Trade in the EUR in the early days of the new calendar year is being deemed volatile and dangerous,

  • Mixed ECB readings to tighten in 2H11? Some saying yes. We wonder.





Mtl JP  23:46:10 GMT - 01/16/2011  
john 22:27 the BUZZ... is that last time Hu came to the US he was unceremoniously insulted. Sofar things do not look as if much has changed:

“China said it would ‘welcome’ a positive statement from the U.S. on the stability of Chinese- held dollar assets during next week’s summit in Washington between President Hu Jintao and President Barack Obama. ‘If the U.S. makes a positive statement on this issue we surely will welcome that,’ Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said… ‘China follows very closely the economic health of the United States and vice versa.’” - January 12, Bloomberg

Clinton on China: 'Distrust lingers on both sides' - http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41075794/ns/world_news-asiapacific/">Jan 14 - msnbc

Jan 14, 2011BEIJING (Dow Jones)--Keeping US$600 billion-US$800 billion worth of foreign-exchange reserves would be enough for China..
i.e. ...psst.. pass some of the bag along to someoene else...

Chinese President's U.S. visit vital to ties: ambassador - 2011-01-16, xinhuanet
an ambassador.. says... haha

U.S. and China economic relationship benefits both: Geithner - January 17, tehran times
-
I am reviewing pages of Japanese historical visit to Wall Street and reminding everyone who needed to know what could happen if... sentiment towards holding bags of US paper changed


GVI Forex john  22:27:55 GMT - 01/16/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

HIGHLIGHTS: No Major Data U.S. Holiday

  • Key German Sentiment data due over the week.

  • China policy tightening on Friday a weight on the commodity exporting nations tightens reserve requirement.

  • Focus to start this week on whether EUR short-covering demand has run its course.

  • Mixed ECB readings to tighten in 2H11? Some saying yes. We wonder.





Mtl JP  17:31:35 GMT - 01/14/2011  
john the clash ... is really between retail sales & consumer sentiment vs Ben's 3-4% growth for 2011 optimism.


dc CB  16:10:24 GMT - 01/14/2011  
The Fed purchased $7.31 bln of 2015/2016 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $24.89 bln.



GVI Forex john  15:09:19 GMT - 01/14/2011  
- Data out today were about as expected, but were slightly shaded to the soft side.
- The University of Michigan Survey fell significantly shy of expectations while the CPI was a tad hotter than expected.
- Nothing in the data should be USD positive.

Comments Encouraged.



GVI Forex john  12:32:17 GMT - 01/14/2011  
- U.S. data today could impact trade.
- Both Retail Sales and CPI data could impact prices. We will be watching the relative strength of retail sales more closely.
- EUR starting to sputter?

Any comments?


GVI Forex john  11:52:10 GMT - 01/14/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

HIGHLIGHTS: US- CPI, Retail Sales, Ind Production, Univ of Mich Survey

  • Active Calendar. Early close for some..

  • China tightens reserve requirement ratio. Hits Commodity Currencies.

  • EUR short-covering demand still around.

  • Mixed ECB readings to tighten in 2H11? Some saying yes. We wonder.

  • EURUSD and EUR cross tone much stronger on short-covering demand.

  • Starting to watch relative yields on 10-yr notes.





GVI Forex john  22:52:26 GMT - 01/13/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

HIGHLIGHTS: JP- CGPI, EZ- HICP, Trade. GB- PPI

  • Active Calendar: EZ inflation figures to be closely followed..

  • U.S. sees a heavy calendar later on Friday.

  • Spanish debt auction went well and fueled EUR short-covering demand.

  • Mixed readings of ECB press conference. ECB to tighten in 2H11? Some saying yes. We wonder?

  • EURUSD and EUR cross tone much stronger on short-covering demand..

  • Mixed Australian employment report





GVI Forex john  18:46:54 GMT - 01/13/2011  
- Silver, Gold, Crude and NG all is the red for the day. Not a "risk-on" session.


GVI Forex john  18:36:05 GMT - 01/13/2011  
- EUR higher vs. USD and on its major crosses.
- Short-covering continues. Not obvious from day to day what has been driving this currency. Chatter earlier of CB interest to buy.
- Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD NZD) mixed.
- Equities not trading with EURUSD.





GVI Forex john  14:27:16 GMT - 01/13/2011  
- Comments by Trichet today pretty much the usual stuff. Mention of budding inflationary pressures has caused a stir in the EURUSD. However, a change in monetary policy appears unlikely for now.


London Mick  14:20:20 GMT - 01/13/2011  
dc CB that is just an excuse for a market caught short. This market was selling earlier at 1.3150-70 and got caught the wrong way again. There should be support therefore below the market by those caught the wrong way.


GVI Forex john  14:19:42 GMT - 01/13/2011  
- Hearing that the weekly jobless claims this time of year typically are a mess due to assorted (seasonal, weather, etc) distortions. Nevertheless, the best guess is that the jobless data released this morning was the outlier. That means that the next reading in a weeks time should be back in line with recent levels.

- Better than expected trade this morning should provide a positive contribution to 4 Q10 GDP.

- Hearing mixed messages on the Bank of Canada decision next week. Some high profile advisors reportedly are saying the BOC will be turning more hawkish. This is out of line with what we have been hearing and what we have observed. Any comments would be useful.

- Chatter that the markets are still positioned wrong in the EUR (short). At some point this will correct itself. Your opinions of where we are in this process would be useful.



dc CB  14:06:21 GMT - 01/13/2011  
Trichet PressConf:
Asked if the ECB could become insolvent: says the insolvency of the ECB is an 'absurd' question; sasy had the EUR 5 bln capital in place since 2000 so the increase is not out of the question given the growth of the EU...
_________________________________________________
LOL...the NY Fed has a group of 20year olds who blow thru 6 to 8 Billion each moring in an hour every day of the week....


dc CB  14:00:59 GMT - 01/13/2011  
Short-covering rampant as focus turns to inflation
Thu, Jan 13 2011, 13:52 GMT - Forex Live
By: Jamie Coleman

The ECB's inflation concerns hit the market from out of left field, reinforcing a short-covering rally in EUR/USD after this week's successful bond auctions and signs that the ECB will increase the size of the bailout plan. The whiff of inflation that Trichet describes will make it virtually impossible for the ECB to ease any further if the EU runs into further debt-inspired trouble as the year goes on... 1.3300 is trendline resistance drawn off the 1.4280 highs from November.A break of that level would be extremely bullish from a technical perspective.


GVI Forex john  11:22:23 GMT - 01/13/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

HIGHLIGHTS: BOE, ECB, U.S. Weekly Jobs, Trade- U.S. /CA

  • Active Calendar: Do not expect market-moving news from BOE or ECB, but these are headline events.

  • U.S. and Canadian Trade data are headline events as well.

  • Despite the hype, there never was any suspense in the Spanish debt auction today.

  • For the past week the ECB has been buying peripheral bonds..

  • EUR USD and EUR cross tone better on short-covering demand..

  • Mixed Australian employment report



GVI Forex john  22:57:01 GMT - 01/12/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Wednesday saw a short-covering rally in the EURUSD and in the EUR crosses..

  • Despite much hype, there never was any suspense in the Portuguese debt auction results.

  •  For the past week the ECB has been supporting the auction.

  • Auction result pretty much as expected. Buy the rumor sell the fact. Sovereign debt prices improved all week.

  • Spanish auction on Thursday.

  • Economic calendar kicks into a higher gear on Thursday abs Friday.





GVI Forex john  17:26:08 GMT - 01/12/2011  
- 1.3075 G-V 200-day moving average in EURUSD.


GVI Forex john  16:50:39 GMT - 01/12/2011  
- Re 10-yr dealers like to knock down prices into an auction (higher yields) to make placing the debt they buy easier,
- Thursday sees a 30-yr bond auction.
- Borrowing from the U.S. does not stop.


GVI Forex john  16:47:30 GMT - 01/12/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- EURUSD short-covering major theme. EUR generally up on its major crosses.
- Market is set up for a positive Spanish auction on Thursday. Expect the ECB to MAKE it happen.
- AUD short-covering as well. AUDNZD up sharply.
- Gold/Silver down while crude is up modestly.
- Equities are up and the 10-yr is weaker. Last 3.41%, +7bp.
- 10-yr note auction in about 90 mins.
- Beige Book in 2-1/2 hrs. U.S. economy remains slow, but it has been gradually improving.

Comments/Additions Encouraged.


ha noi 13:32:04 GMT - 01/12/2011  
i thinks don't sell au because today eu daily close 0.994 tomorow au hit st 0.996


GVI Forex john  13:21:02 GMT - 01/12/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Despite the press hype, there never was any suspense in the Portuguese debt auction result today. For the past week the ECB has been supporting the auction.

  • Auction result pretty much as the MARKETS had expected. Sovereign debt prices had been improving this week.

  • Market reaction was a buy the rumor sell the fact.  

  • European worries USD supportive. Spanish auction on Thursday.

  • U.S. economic calendar slow in first half of week; busy later.





dc CB  04:47:42 GMT - 01/12/2011  
Filed at 11:23 p.m. EST

BEIJING (AP) — A state-owned Chinese bank says its New York City branch has begun offering accounts denominated in China's tightly controlled yuan, adding to a gradual campaign to expand the currency's global reach. ..................
.........Bank of China says customers of its Chinatown branch in New York will be allowed trade yuan for dollars and can wire yuan to or from China

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/01/11/business/AP-AS-China-Promoting-the-Yuan.html?censored=busln


dc CB  02:42:57 GMT - 01/12/2011  
Vague talk of large fixing flows later today in London
Wed, Jan 12 2011, 02:27 GMT - Forex Live
By: Sean Lee

I would consider it unusual to see large fixing demand in the middle of the month as the big events are usually related to asset-reallocation and they usually happen towards months-end. Nevertheless, there is talk of some large demand for EUR, GBP, AUD and CAD at today's London fix which might go some way to explaining the jumps in pairs like EUR/USD and cable over the last hour.


Mtl JP  02:16:35 GMT - 01/12/2011  
Singapore C 00:58 - above round number like 1.30 we' ll probably need to see above 1.3030 to get some additional euro phillip.
however, while euro is under 1.3151 the bias is down and still should favour selling rallies.
caveat: I am known to have been wrong and taken losses.


Mtl JP  01:27:33 GMT - 01/12/2011  
Germany's manufacturing for export workers, for example, benefit. keeps them busy and not striking / rioting in the streets


atlanta blahblah  01:14:17 GMT - 01/12/2011  
can you explain why there would be a defense of the 1.3 level? and who is defending 1.3?

i was thinking about something that i think is similar to the idea of defending an exchange rate.

for instance: is it good or bad for china when the exchange rate or the audusd is above parity? im not sure what the answer to this question is but if i had to make an answer i would say

stronger dollar means the reserves are worth more and those reserves can be used to purchase commodities needed for growth. so i reason that it is better for china if the exchange rate of audusd is below parity.

maybe im wrong about this.

so who benefits if the eurusd is below 1.3?



Singapore C  00:58:36 GMT - 01/12/2011  
There is an apparent defence of 1.30 but if it gives way the mood will change.


la la  00:31:58 GMT - 01/12/2011  
Why not 1.32?


atlanta blahblah  00:30:35 GMT - 01/12/2011  

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
do you think that it is possible that the down swings are traders taking profit at levels near 1.300?

maybe the real gangster traders are holding out for 1.31 or higher.


Richland QC Mailman  00:23:48 GMT - 01/12/2011  
Tested the mettle of this euro. Sold @1.2983. Temporarily rejected again before 1.3000. Let us see.


Mtl JP  00:10:05 GMT - 01/12/2011  
at 1.2985ish EURUSD is within striking distance of 1.30
even if no other reason than to be cantankerous.


GVI Forex john  22:58:18 GMT - 01/11/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Press trying to build suspense about sovereign debt auctions this week. EZ powers will make sure they go ok. 

  • European sovereign debt worries still a weight on EUR.

  • EURUSD remains decisively below 1.30. EURUSD 1.2930 pivot. Resistance 1.2984 (tested). 1.3000 pivotal to EUR USD tone. 

  • Japan to buy EZ debt to help Ireland. They get paper backed broadly by Europe and don't deal with individual government.

  • Activity might also help contain JPY vs EUR and indirectly the USD.

  • European worries USD supportive.

  • U.S. economic calendar slow in first half of week; busy later.





dc CB  21:15:15 GMT - 01/11/2011  
fyi
Starting this friday with JPM thru next friday with Bank America (BAC), US big -TBTF -banks will be reporting earnings.


dc CB  20:55:44 GMT - 01/11/2011  
15:46 Alaska pipeline officials seek approval for temporary restart; purpose of restart is to raise temperature of oil in pipeline - CNBC
Leak has not been stopped or isolated.


GVI Forex john  20:10:26 GMT - 01/11/2011  
dil- I have no way of giving you a meaningful probability. Any thing is possible, and even likely.

All I know is that that most "barriers" are just numbers, not ceilings or floors. Some institutional traders make a very nice living of running stops above or below the market. Nevertheless, the tone of the markets could quickly change if the EURUSD establishes itself above 1.3000. Just as BELOW 1.3000 it has a weak psychological tone.

Hope this helps!


dc CB  20:05:51 GMT - 01/11/2011  
 
AUD
New Flooding Rain Threat to Australia
Thunderstorms will unleash cloudbursts of potentially flooding rain in a corridor across central and southern Australia on Wednesday and Thursday.

The at-risk corridor will stretch across the remote desert outback of Northern Territory to settled areas of South Australia and Victoria between Adelaide and Melbourne.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44241/new-flooding-rain-threat-to-au.asp


Singapore SGFXTrader  20:00:22 GMT - 01/11/2011  

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Someone is preventing Eurusd from going above 1.30 at the moment.

They are collecting before the next wave up =)


Israel dil  19:54:42 GMT - 01/11/2011  
John, as you are very experienced in the markets, what are the odds you personally give to that EUR/USD will start new leg down below 1.2850 without spike above 1.30 first?

even by one pip or even for a tick time frame. TIA



GVI Forex john  19:48:46 GMT - 01/11/2011  
- Mildly surprised the EURUSD has not tested 1.3000 so far today.
- 1.3000 line still potentially in play.
- EUR holding well on its crosses.
- AUD getting hit hard. same for AUDNZD



GVI Forex john  17:14:03 GMT - 01/11/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- EURUSD holding. Test of 1.3000 in store ?
- EUR holding well on its various major crosses.
- Worries about Europe abating? JPY and CHF weaker.
- Auction week. 3-yr auction in less than an hour.
- Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) mixed. AUD weaker. Flood worries?
- Gold, Silver and crude are stronger.



GVI Forex john  14:07:25 GMT - 01/11/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Press trying to build suspense about sovereign debt auctions this week. EZ power will make sure they go ok. 

  • European sovereign debt worries still a weight on EUR.

  • EURUSD remains decisively below 1.30. EURUSD 1.2930 pivot. Resistance 1.2984 (tested). 1.3000 pivotal to EUR USD tone.

  • Note Japan to buy EZ debt to help Ireland. They want paper backed by Europe as a whole and do not want to deal with individual governments.

  • Activity might also help contain JPY.

  • European worries USD supportive.

  • U.S. economic calendar slow in first half of week; busy later.





GVI Forex john  23:11:48 GMT - 01/10/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Press Report that Germany and France leaned on Portugal to take EU/IMF bailout. Spanish and Italian risk spreads move wider. 

  • European sovereign debt worries persist.

  • EURUSD decisively below 1.30. EURUSD 1.2930 pivot. Resistance 1.2984. 1.3000 pivotal to EUR USD tone.

  • European worries USD supportive.

  • U.S. economic calendar slow in first half of week; busy later.





GVI Forex john  16:41:34 GMT - 01/10/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Picking up the pieces. Friday was not so much as pro-dollar as it was anti-EUR.
- EUR in a corrective mode vs. USD and on its major crosses. Still in bad shape below 1.3000.
- Note 1.2950 was the EUR USD pivot point, and roughly 1.3000 is resistance level 1.
- Shut down of Alaska pipeline putting a bid into crude. Gold and Silver are up.
- Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) are trading mixed.
- Equities are down and FI prices are up (10-yr last 3.299%,-1bp).





GVI Forex john  12:52:12 GMT - 01/10/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • EZ leans on Portugal to take EU/IMF bailout. Spanish and Italian risk spreads move wider. European sovereign debt worries persist.

  • EURUSD decisively below 1.30. EURUSD 1.2950 pivot. Resistance 1.3000. 1.3000 pivotal to EUR USD tone.

  • European worries USD supportive.

  • Friday U.S. jobs data after revisions were not far out of line with ORIGINAL expectations. In retrospect, ADP private jobs data were out of line.

  • We said that the markets had been priced for perfection Friday. EURUSD weakness major surprise after data. Not our scenario.

  • Bernanke economic testimony blunted by lackluster employment data. 

  • U.S. economic calendar slow in first half of week; busy later.





GVI Forex john  22:29:12 GMT - 01/09/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Friday U.S. jobs data after revisions were not far out of line with ORIGINAL expectations. In retrospect, it was the ADP private jobs data that were out of line.

  • We had thought that the markets had been priced for perfection on Friday. The weakness of the EURUSD certainly took the markets by surprise as prices suddenly gapped lower.

  • Bernanke testimony on the economy was blunted by lackluster employment data. 

  • European worries USD supportive.

  • EURUSD 1.2950 pivot. Resistance 1.3000. 1.3000 pivotal to EUR USD tone.

  • Markets will continue to severely challenge the weak E-Z peripherals.  





dc CB  19:10:28 GMT - 01/07/2011  
don't you just love stuff like this. not responsible?

US Bancorp: CNBC highlights US Bankcorp statement regarding lawsuit; co says that the judgement has no financial impact on it.
As a trustee, USB has no responsibility for the terms of the underlying mortgage or the procedure for which they are transferred.



dc CB  18:16:11 GMT - 01/07/2011  
GVI Forex john 17:48 GMT January 7, 2011
What's the buzz? : Reply
CB trying to figure out the ruling.

suggest that you open the ZH link to the ruling and read it.

The banks did not hold the mortgage when they initiated the forclosures. The papers they submitted to the court show that they were assigned the mortgages months after the property was sold.


GVI Forex john  17:48:24 GMT - 01/07/2011  
CB trying to figure out the ruling. I assume it means that no one has the standing to foreclose on the property? Pretty frightening with so many borrowers upside down on their mortgages. Too many will see this as a way to make a windfall. What a mess!


dc CB  17:26:46 GMT - 01/07/2011  
*BANKS LOSE PIVOTAL FORECLOSURE CASE IN MASSACHUSETTS HIGH COURT
*MASSACHUSETTS TOP COURT DECIDES CLOSELY WATCHED IBANEZ CASE
*MASSACHUSETTS DECISION MAY AFFECT FORECLOSURE-CRISIS CASES

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/some-very-bad-news-sweep-fraudclosure-under-rub-brigade

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-full-ibanez-supreme-court-ruling


dc CB  17:18:06 GMT - 01/07/2011  
it's more likely that there will be an another attempt to pass a law that retroactively makes what the banks have done legal, using MERS as an electronic transfer agent rather than tranfering each mortgage that is put into a security thru the required process --- which means going to the land transfer office in the county where the property is located, paying a transfer fee...etc......

They tried this already before the elections, and O did a "pocket veto", so it's still there in some form or another.

One thing is, with the states in dire straits now, collecting all those "fees" from the banks that were never paid because they circumvented the legal paper work, would help stressed state budgets.

I could go on .... Google MERS and you'll see that it's a legal nightmare created by the banks. This thing in one form or another will eventually go to the Supreme Court.


Mtl JP  17:02:10 GMT - 01/07/2011  
(mortgage) putback: putback is a forced repurchase of a security. typically because buyer claims misrepresentation / fraud.
-
something that Ben and a two-three hundered more billion in QE should be able to paper over ?


GVI Forex john  16:58:55 GMT - 01/07/2011  
- Looks like someone had some wood to chop in EURUSD all day. Probably unrelated to the data. In fact the data played into their hands.
- Pretty clear someone was on top above the 1.3000 line.
- No one reported significant upside stops in the EURUSD upside over the N.Y. morning on GVI.
- Someone cited the 200-day average (GV= 1.3061) as being a watershed for many. We have not gotten close to it yet.



GVI Forex Jay  16:54:04 GMT - 01/07/2011  
Euro popped up on this:

Friday, January 07, 2011 11:47:30 AM
(PO) Swiss National Bank (SNB) clarifies earlier reports, notes that no official decision has been made to not buy Portugal debt; states it has not bought Portugal bonds for 12 months - US financial press
- Notes that Portugal debt was never repo collateral for the SNB, no official decision has been made of late exclude Portugal's debt. (Trade the News)


dc CB  16:34:33 GMT - 01/07/2011  
POMO - Fed purchased $7.199 bln of 2013/2014 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $24.196 bln..

Also - Banks lose one at a state Supreme Court level. Two foreclosures were ruled invalid because the banks could not prove they owned the mortgages.

Massachusetts Supreme Court upheld a ruling against WFC and USB on their mortgage practices, specifically with regard to how the banks transferred mortgages into securitizations. The negative read-through comes from the idea that such a ruling may guide other rulings. This could invalidate some forclosures and increase mortgage putbacks to the banks that originated the mortgages.



Caribbean! Rafe...  15:37:27 GMT - 01/07/2011  
Mtl JP 15:13 GMT January 7, 2011

He may just be in collusion with spider man... lol


Mtl JP  15:13:06 GMT - 01/07/2011  
Bernanke .. looking pretty wise at the moment
as a teller of fairy tale story built on magic


GVI Forex john  14:31:31 GMT - 01/07/2011  
- What a start to the day!
- Bottom-line, setting market expectations aside, the employment report was disappointing. Jobs growth still remains slow.
- Analysts still seem to be touting a one month explosion at some point in the future.
- QE2 is alive and well. A future iteration is still possible if things don;t start to improve substantially.
- Bernanke Testimony shortly. He is looking pretty wise at the moment.
- EURUSD weak PLUS EUR is weak on its crosses.
- Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD. NZD) are stronger.





GVI Forex john  11:10:27 GMT - 01/07/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Focus on jobs data from the U.S.(13:30 GMT) and Canada (12:00 GMT) today. Consensus for payrolls +175 to 190K. 

  • Whisper numbers, which are usually are incorrect, are for much higher.

  • Markets now priced for perfection? Recall November data were a unexpected disappointment.

  • Testimony on the economy by Bernanke (14:30 GMT) after the data will be a highlight as well. 

  • Rising U.S. interest rates have become USD supportive.

  • EUR soft vs. USD and mixed on its key crosses. EURUSD 1.3000 target breached. 1.30 Still pivotal.

  • The European sovereign-debt crisis has picked up where it left off.

  • Markets will continue to severely challenge the weaker E-Z peripherals.  





GVI Forex john  22:59:41 GMT - 01/06/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Focus on jobs data after ADP private jobs result saw many revisions in forecasts for the data. Consensus for payrolls +175 to 190K .

  • Markets now priced for perfection (strong data)? Recall November data were surprisingly weak. . .

  • U.S. 10-yr note yield closes at 3.40% -7bp. Yields soared on Wednesday. Mostly a correction on Thursday.

  • Rising U.S. interest rates could become USD supportive.

  • EUR soft vs. USD and weaker on all its key crosses. EURUSD 1.3000 target breached.

  • The European sovereign-debt crisis has picked up where it left off.

  •  The market will continue to severely challenge the weaker peripherals.  





dc CB  22:57:08 GMT - 01/06/2011  
Mtl JP 20:01 GMT January 6, 2011
: Reply
CB - more candy: WASHINGTON—

The other little twist that non of the financial press talks about. The Private bank - the Fed- when it buys back auctioned Treasury instruments with "printed money" get to collect the interest on those Bills, Notes, Bonds etc....all payed of course by the US taxpayer - interest on the debt, as it's commonly known.
Low rates, but were talking interest on $Blns of debt.

Nice n easy to pull off, as they are, when you've got all the pols cloggiing up the newswires/airwaves with red-herrings---ie reducing Gov'ment spending........just keep yelling really loud at each other and no one will have a clue what is really going on.


Chicago  sc  22:31:38 GMT - 01/06/2011  
EURUSD 1.3000 finally taken out. Not sure why we had to wait for the N.Y. close to take it out. You never know some times. EUR just looks lousy.


Chicago sc  20:38:03 GMT - 01/06/2011  
Somebody protecting 1.3000 level? Not very aggressive.


Mtl JP  20:01:29 GMT - 01/06/2011  
CB - more candy: WASHINGTON—The Treasury will sell $145 billion in bills, notes and bonds next week. - wsj
-
US econy running at ±14 trillion. US treasury generating ±2 trillion from taxes. US govt debt at ±14 trillion, growing by $4 billion (4 thousand million) every day.
By 2015, ceteris paribus, debt will be at 15 trillion.
Currently players are willing to lend $100 for 10years to the Us Treasury for $3.5 dollars per year.


Chicago sc  19:57:02 GMT - 01/06/2011  
should have said sometime AGAIN soon.


Chicago sc  19:55:10 GMT - 01/06/2011  
EURUSD lacking resilience.
Looks to be like it wants to test 1.3000 sometime soon.


dc CB  19:40:11 GMT - 01/06/2011  
from ZeroHedge (beause no one else in the Financial Press bothers to look). Breakdown of today's POMO.

"what is shocking is the brazen arrogance of the Primary Dealers to flip what is pretty much an asston of the just issued 5 Year PM6 5 Year, which was auctioned off a week ago, and of which the primary dealers are flipping like deranged homeowners at the top of the housing bubble, without even a pretense of keeping the bond for at least a week or two! This is the purest definition of monetization: of today's $6.8 billion POMO, more than half, or $3.5 billion consisted merely of flipping precisely this CUSIP. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pomo-over-primary-dealers-dump-just-issued-december-28-5-year-ust-en-masse


Livingston nh  18:57:12 GMT - 01/06/2011  
The Fed is working against the Treasury attempt to lengthen maturity -- Ben's either smarter than all of us or dumber than dirt


atlanta blahblah  18:33:25 GMT - 01/06/2011  
why is believing in ben bernake dumb? im not sure how to feel about current fed policy, but i think there is a side to the current fed policies that doesnt get discussed in the media.




dc CB  18:30:30 GMT - 01/06/2011  
HERE YOU SEE THE IDIOTS --Longer term is at record lows

But QE2 isn't buying BACK the long end...they can only successfully auction off what they've announced that they'll buy back. In some cases, in as little as a month or two. PONZI


Livingston nh  18:16:56 GMT - 01/06/2011  
HERE YOU SEE THE IDIOTS --Longer term is at record lows --these guys are dumb as dirt - part of the problem is the BEN believers


dc CB  18:12:47 GMT - 01/06/2011  
Auctions up

$32 bln in 3s, $21 bln in 10s, and $13 bln in 30s will be sold next week (re-open of 10s and 30s).


dc CB  17:06:42 GMT - 01/06/2011  
Perhaps the POMO money is being used to get yields LOWER...how they do that I don't know. But after the drubbing the bond market and the Fed's portfolio took yesterday...when you consider that the Fed, the largest unregulated and totally opaque Hedge Fund on the planet, just handed its Primary Dealers nearly $7bln this past hour.
_______________________________________________________
Permanent Open Market Operations: The Fed purchased $6.78 bln of 2015/2016 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $18.56 bln.

Tomorrow's buying will take place in 2013/2014 maturities with the Fed buying $6-$8 bln worth.


Chicago tt  16:48:53 GMT - 01/06/2011  
There appears to be a bid a l.3005 (1.30 protection??)


kl fs  16:47:02 GMT - 01/06/2011  
agree with Mailman completely, sell usd and make money! only sell


Richland QC Mailman  16:30:35 GMT - 01/06/2011  
The buzz now is to SELL the greenback and buy aussie, gbp and euro.


London ex  16:23:47 GMT - 01/06/2011  
You just can't stand in front of a liquidating market. Looks like stops are coming out of the woodwork.


GVI Forex john  16:08:03 GMT - 01/06/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Markets pricing in a strong jobs number ahead of the report tomorrow.

- Lots of room for disappointment now Friday morning in NYC.

- Tale of the EUR being told not only in EURUSD but in its crosses. The EUR is relatively weak against everything.

- The Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD NZD) are broadly weaker vs. USD.

- Gold, Silver and crude are weaker. Still a lot of analyst chatter about crude above $100 this year. That remains to be seen.

- Yield on 10-yr 3.42% -4bp, but Tuesday close was only 3.32%. Equities are weaker on the higher LEVEL of U.S. interest rates. Higher interest rates are broadly USD supportive.


GVI Forex john  13:46:24 GMT - 01/06/2011  
- Weekly jobless data taken after the monthly data were counted. Thee should be no DIRECT connection between this report and the monthly data.


dc CB  13:43:58 GMT - 01/06/2011  
from FXStreet.com

Offers in the 1.3120/30 area on bounce
Thu, Jan 06 2011, 13:39 GMT - Forex Live
By: Jamie Coleman
Traders report sellers on the bounces to the 1.3120/30 area, the former support level on the way south. We also hear another spin on the option struck at the 1.3125 level that got lots of attention in the last 24-hours. Now there is talk that the option is a digital. The owner of the option gets paid-out millions if the market is below 1.3125 at expiry (usually 15:00 GMT but some say this one expires at 16:00). If the market is above 1.3125, no cigar...


dc CB  13:17:18 GMT - 01/06/2011  
POMOs today thru Tues. Jan 12 next POMO schedule out.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Also today Treas will annc size of next weeks auctions 3s,10,30's.


GVI Forex john  12:48:35 GMT - 01/06/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Focus now on the Friday jobs data after the ADP private jobs survey result saw many revise up their forecasts for the data on Friday.

  • Markets now set up for a disappointment? Recall November data were surprisingly weak. 

  • Today sees weekly jobless claims. They are unrelated to the specific Friday data, but are an important part of the larger picture. .

  • U.S. 10-yr note yield closes at 3.45% -2bp. Yields soared on Wednesday. Rising U.S. interest rates could become USD supportive.

  • EUR soft vs. USD and weaker on all its key crosses.   





GVI Forex john  23:01:23 GMT - 01/05/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • U.S. data continue to come in stronger than expected. Analysts revising upward their forecasts for payrolls on Friday.

  • U.S. 10-yr note yield closes at 3.49% +17bp.

  • Markets starting up the new year with a positive outlook based on recent economic figures. High unemployment is still an issue.

  • Rising U.S. interest rates could become USD supportive.

  • Active Data Calendar again Thursday. Highlight: U.S. weekly jobless.

  • EUR soft vs. USD and most of its key crosses. Nevertheless, it has gained vs the CHF and JPY.

  • European sovereign debt issue worries rekindled after SNB rejects Irish paper as repo collateral.  



nyc ws  17:18:40 GMT - 01/05/2011  
Maybe the euro is seen as a good candidate for a funding currency even if its rates are higher than say chf and jpy and even the usd as the currency has a bigger downside risk.


GVI Forex  john  17:11:04 GMT - 01/05/2011  
In response to a question of line note in table below that EUR is only stronger vs the JPY and CHF...
EURUSD=	1.3170	-137 	1.3325	1.3127
EURJPY=	109.60	51 	109.64	108.49
EURCHF=	1.2705	84 	1.2713	1.2572
EURGBP=	0.8498	-35 	0.8542	0.8472
EURAUD=	1.3159	-67 	1.3275	1.3156
EURCAD=	1.3093	-191 	1.3294	1.3075
EURNZD=	1.7271	-17 	1.7402	1.7251


This raises the question of why is are the carry trade funding currencies even weaker than the EUR.


GVI Forex john  17:01:14 GMT - 01/05/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Tough market. It appears the market goes off on the wrong foot at the start of the week. Hard to believe it is only Wednesday.
- You still have to wonder if the positive equity correlation to the EURUSD pair can hold.
- In earlier times, the USD correlated positively to strong economic data. It has been hard for some of us to react negatively in the USD to constructive economic news.
- EUR weaker vs USD and mostly weaker on its major crosses.
- Big exceptions to the rule are a better EURJPY and EURCHF today.
- Commodities are the big theme at the moment. Gold and silver are weaker, while crude is holding about steady on the day. The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD NZD) are trading mixed.
- U,S. data have been much stronger than expected, and have weighed heavily on fixed income markets today.





GVI Forex john  13:00:06 GMT - 01/05/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Typical volatile start to trade for the new year.

  • Markets starting up the new year with a positive outlook based on recent economic figures. High unemployment is still an issue.

  • Active Data Calendar today. Highlight: U.S. ADP private employment for December.  

  • Japanese exporter USD selling might have run its course? 

  • European sovereign debt issues still not resolved. SNB rejects Irish paper as repo collateral.  

  • Fed Minutes acknowledge improving economy, but end to QE2 will have a high bar to meet.



GVI Forex john  22:54:38 GMT - 01/04/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Typical volatile start to trade for the new year.

  • Markets starting up the new year with a positive outlook based on recent economic figures. High unemployment is still an issue.  

  • Waiting to see if Japanese exporter USD selling has run its course. 

  • European sovereign debt issues still not resolved. Still in the background.  

  • Active Data Calendar today. Highlight: U.S. ADP private employment for December.





lkwd jj  16:23:50 GMT - 01/04/2011  
auto sales report due out . time? ford and others moving...


GVI Forex john  16:19:21 GMT - 01/04/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- Gold, Silver, Oil, Nat gas etc., weaker. Looking for a story other than profit-taking.
- Equity markets opened the year strongly yesterday. They should positively correlate with industrial commodities. Today equities are flat.
- First week in January frequently has been a nightmare to trade.
- Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD & NZD) all are weaker.
- EUR trading mixed on its crosses and in an exceptionally wide range vs. the USD.
- GBP in demand on chatter about a BP takeover deal.




GVI Forex john  12:29:25 GMT - 01/04/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Markets starting up the new year with a positive outlook based on recent economic figures. High unemployment is still an issue.  

  • Waiting to see if Japanese exporter USD selling has run its course. The two most important dates of the Japanese financial year are March 31 (fiscal yearend) and September 30 (fiscal half-year end)..

  • European sovereign debt issues still not resolved. Still in the background.  

  • Markets should finally back to  full strength today. 

  • Data highlights include: U.S. factory orders and Fed Minutes.

  • EZ flash HICP estimate above target. U.K. mfg PMI solid. 





GVI Forex john  23:04:36 GMT - 01/03/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Today is a key session. Waiting to see if Japanese exporter USD selling has run its course as they return for their first day of the new calendar year.

  • Two most important dates of the Japanese financial year are March 31 (fiscal yearend) and September 30 (fiscal half-year end)..

  • European sovereign debt issues still not resolved. Could continue to flip back and forth.  

  • Markets should finally return to full strength today. A number of key markets were closed Monday. 

  • Data highlights include: EZ CPI (HICP), U.S. factory orders and Fed Minutes.



GVI Forex john  17:47:36 GMT - 01/03/2011  
-should have added, that the EUR is mostly, but not entirely higher on its crosses. We know this never seems to last.


GVI Forex john  16:41:23 GMT - 01/03/2011  
- Trying to get oriented. Falling yields on U.S. treasuries giving equities a boost. EURUSD still correlates positively with higher shares.
- Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) all better. AUD and CAD reopen tomorrow. NZ to remain on holiday. Risk on?
- Gold, Silver, Crude and Natural Gas are all stronger.
- Equities in the U.S. and those open in Europe are mostly higher.
- There is some "logic" to what is happening, but don't press this theory too far.


GVI Forex john  14:06:16 GMT - 01/03/2011  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • End of year USD weakness a frequent seasonal phenomenon. We will be watching to see if it persists in the new year.

  • European sovereign debt issues still not resolved. Could continue to flip back and forth.

  • JPY to remain in demand vs. USD. End of year JPY demand could persist for a while.  

  • A number of key markets are closed Monday. Activity will be in full swing by Tuesday. 

  • The U.S. ISM PMI is set for release today.  



GVI Forex john  21:40:22 GMT - 01/02/2011  

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • End of year USD weakness a frequent seasonal phenomenon. We will be watching to see if it persists in the new year.

  • European sovereign debt issues still not resolved.

  • JPY to remain in demand vs. USD? Key question.  

  • New Years Day is the most universal of the annual holidays. A number of fey markets are closed today (Monday).

  • No U.S. data are set for release.  



Rexburg Stubbs  13:49:03 GMT - 12/31/2010  
What's the buzz?

I'm to say.....BTFD!

Happy New Year!


Israel dil  12:42:29 GMT - 12/31/2010  
 

John, USD/CNY is the easiest currency on earth to trade, if judging the last 20 years. an evidence enclosed :-)


HK REVDAX  12:31:07 GMT - 12/31/2010  
John//Anything that cannot be used to make money is false information...and Wall Street is full of that...


GVI Forex john  12:28:24 GMT - 12/31/2010  
REVDAX don't worry Im skeptical of everything I read or hear. Everybody has an agenda.



HK REVDAX  12:23:44 GMT - 12/31/2010  
John//There is quite a bit of disinformation in this Wikileak. Be careful with what you hear. Just looking at the charts will do u a world of good.


GVI Forex john  12:21:58 GMT - 12/31/2010  
- Just saw an item on a ticker (no details) that Wikileaks said China to allow CNY to gain by 5% in 2011. I'm not sure how they would know.


GVI Forex john  12:17:00 GMT - 12/31/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • End of year USD weakness often a seasonal phenomenon.

  • JPY remains in demand vs. USD. Shirt-covering?  

  • New Years Day is the most universal of the annual holidays. although U.S. equity markets do not observe it.

  • Other U.S. markets putting in a half-day.

  • Tokyo now closed until Tuesday 4 January 2011.

  • No U.S. data set for release. Government employees recognize the holiday.   



GVI Forex john  22:58:20 GMT - 12/30/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? 31 Dec 10 Far East/Europe 

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • End of year USD weakness often a seasonal phenomenon.

  • Japanese exporters were still actively hedging USD future flows through FY end (March 2011). 

  • New Years Day is the most universal of the annual holidays.

  • Tokyo now closed until Tuesday 4 January 2011.

  • Half-day for those key European center which are open.

  • Key 200-day average in EURUSD 1.3088..

  • CNY stronger. Dec HSBC PMI 54.4 vs, 55.3 in November.  





GVI Forex john  14:58:37 GMT - 12/30/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- USD bias downward?



GVI Forex john  14:57:42 GMT - 12/30/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- USD reaction to the data muted.
- Good news is bad news?
- EURUSD looking to follow stocks.
- Tokyo and Frankfurt now closed for the year.
- Be wary of thin market's ability to absorb chunky flows with reduced institutional liquidity.



GVI Forex john  23:03:04 GMT - 12/29/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • U.S. seven year auction proved to be decisive. Strong auction saw prices rise and yields fall sharply.

  • Lower yields gave equities a lift and thus supported the EURUSD.

  • Reportedly Japanese exporters actively have been hedging USD future flows through the fiscal yearend (March 2011).

  • End of year USD weakness often seasonal phenomenon.

  • EURUSD failed at distancing itself from 1.3100 yesterday. Key 200-day average 1.3185.

  • PBOC turning towards market-oriented strategies. CNY revaluation increasingly logical idea.





GVI Forex john  19:20:39 GMT - 12/29/2010  
- Focus of all the markets remains on fixed income trading.
- Seems there is no demand for the EURUSD at the higher levels once again.



GVI Forex john  18:25:01 GMT - 12/29/2010  
- Hard to get comfortable with the notion of selling USD on a good treasury auction.
- Easy to make the case for a lower USD on a poor auction.


GVI Forex john  11:11:28 GMT - 12/29/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Watch U.S. seven year auction at 18:00 GMT. Five-yr was ugly yesterday. Confidence questions?

  • Reportedly Japanese exporters actively have been hedging USD future flows through the fiscal yearend (March 2011). Intervention is ineffective against these flows. 

  • End of year USD weakness often seasonal phenomenon.

  • EURUSD failed at distancing itself from 1.3100 yesterday. Key 200-day average 1.3091.

  • This is not as much a EUR market today: EURUSD steady EUR mixed on its major crosses.

  • PBOC turning towards market-oriented strategies. Hikes bank funding costs to combat inflation. CNY revaluation increasingly logical idea.



GVI Forex john  10:17:55 GMT - 12/29/2010  
- Heard earlier today that Japanese exporters have been active this year hedging their USD exposures before their long new years break. Sounds like a form of capitulation to me.


GVI Forex john  23:09:27 GMT - 12/28/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Focus through Tuesday mostly on flows.

  • End of year USD weakness often seasonal phenomenon.

  • Japanese FinMin warns about JPY strength. intervention threat. 

  • EURUSD distancing itself from 1.3100. Key 200-day average 1.3091.

  • EUR market: EURUSD tumbles. EUR weak on its major crosses, except vs. GBP. 

  • PBOC turning to more market-oriented strategies, such as CNY revaluation as opposed to administrative controls.



Mtl JP  18:01:26 GMT - 12/28/2010  
soyabean prices at a two-year high.
China imports boatloads of soyabeans.


GVI Forex john  16:58:58 GMT - 12/28/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
- We are not aware of any news today.
- We have heard that some big EURUSD sell orders hit a thin market.
- EUR cross behavior suggests the EURUSD selling might be coming out of the EUR crosses.
- EURUSD seems to be drawn every day to its 200-day moving average. Our calculation shows it at 1.3093 today.
- Note only the GBP has been keeping up with the EUR. The EURGBP cross is about steady on the day,
- EURJPY and EURCHF crosses have tumbled.
- GBPJPY and GBPCHF crosses obviously are sharply weaker also
- CHFJPY is up modestly.


GVI Forex  john  14:55:42 GMT - 12/28/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR getting hit on almost all its croses...
9:54	Last	chg	high	low
EURUSD=	1.3137	-25 	1.3274	1.3138
EURJPY=	107.86	-109 	109.52	107.87
EURCHF=	1.2505	-133 	1.2666	1.2491
EURGBP=	0.8541	5 	0.8592	0.8525
EURAUD=	1.2973	-129 	1.3159	1.2973
EURCAD=	1.3127	-128 	1.3336	1.3130
EURNZD=	1.7382	-18 	1.7644	1.7396



GVI Forex john  12:32:18 GMT - 12/28/2010  
- Interesting that two of the traditional carry trade funding currencies (JPY and CHF) have been in demand recently. Is this just a coincidence or perhaps related to year-end ?

- One might make the case that just about every currency these days has a low enough interest rate to be a funding currency.

- Why this matters is that the demand equation for these currencies COULD change next week??

Ideas?


Mtl JP  12:06:13 GMT - 12/28/2010  
from my 23:54:12 - john please explain exactly how a CNY revaluation by PBOC is a more market-oriented strategy.
-
what is the shift from - gov't meddling? - to "a more market-oriented strategy" ?



GVI Forex john  11:04:57 GMT - 12/28/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • End of year USD weakness often seasonal phenomenon.

  • Japanese FinMin warns about JPY strength. intervention threat?

  • Mixed Japanese data. Deflation persists. 

  • EURUSD distancing itself from 1.3100. Key 200-day average 1.3093.

  • EURCHF weak again. New lows seen.

  • PBOC now more market-oriented strategies, such as CNY revaluation? Shanghai Composite  weak.

  • Tuesday holiday in Some centers.





Mtl JP  23:54:12 GMT - 12/27/2010  
john 23:41 please explain exactly how a CNY revaluation by PBOC is a more market-oriented strategy.


GVI Forex john  23:41:22 GMT - 12/27/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Slew of Japanese data out. Economy slow and deflation persists. 

  • Chatter PBOC will turn now to more market-oriented strategies, such as a CNY revaluation?

  • EURUSD pivots 1.3100. Key 200-day average 1.3093. 

  • U.S. data Tuesday Case Shiller, Conference Board Survey and 5-yr auction..

  • Tuesday holiday in Some centers.

  •  U.S. east coast recovering (ed) from major winter storm.

  • Early-bird traders will be setting up this week for the start of 2011.





HK REVDAX  14:06:01 GMT - 12/27/2010  
John//There is indeed a way that a rising Yuan will help solve the US current mess. It is for the US to sell to China its high-tech toys, something which the government of the US has resisted doing. If the US government could do that, she would be complying with the textbooks classical economics.
That is, international trading partners are free to buy whatever they want from each other.

The longer it is delayed, the less able the Europeans will resist the temptation of opening up accounts with China Investment Incorp. to sell their high tech, and more time for the Chinese high-tech people to catch up.

After all, Europe is also full of liberal politicians who give the voters what they want, and the flower children in Europe are as fond of having good times as the Americans.


HK REVDAX  13:53:00 GMT - 12/27/2010  
John//More than time...the only cure for the US problems is for the Americans to bite the bullets, work their a)ss off like the Chinese, and save up something for the rainy days.


HK REVDAX  13:50:06 GMT - 12/27/2010  
John//And the second leveraged speculation the US has gone in is its college loan. Utterly thousands of flower children go to college on loans with no collateral for a college good time. These loans are based up their ability to pay after graduation. Thus the flower kids go to college on loans, have a good time, and many end up with a micky mouse degree like 'Global studies'. These kids have no skills for jobs, and no trading clients to bring into investment companies, and they despise labor jobs like cleaning the toilets...and want to escape into graduate schools...

A rising yuan will not help the US pay for this margin call...


GVI Forex john  13:46:01 GMT - 12/27/2010  
The only cure for the current economic mess is time. I don't see QE2 solving anything but it will probably help a little. I also doubt that a yuan revaluation will change things significantly.


HK REVDAX  13:39:50 GMT - 12/27/2010  
John//Quantative easing will finally make the link succumb but by how much I am not sure. A rising Yuan will definitely help reduce inflation inside China but I am not sure what good it will do to solve the US domestic problems.

All I know is as a trader, once one's position is cut due to the inability to answer margin calls, there will be one option left for him ... Pay up or see u in court.

The US as a nation went into submortgage speculation for a liberal salvation of the masses ... and lost big time! There will be one and only one thing the USA can do to get itself out of the mess. It is to PAY UP the trading loss.

Thus a rising Yuan won't help the US that much...

Do you see any way out of the current mess?


GVI Forex john  13:26:07 GMT - 12/27/2010  
Yes CNY definitely stronger. Some feel that going back in time that the Feds QE2 will have forced the hand of the PBOC.


HK REVDAX  12:57:39 GMT - 12/27/2010  
John//RMB revaluation? Up or down? Definitely up?


GVI Forex john  12:52:26 GMT - 12/27/2010  
FWIW- NYSE working normal hours today, but its floor has mainly become a stage prop with most of the activity these days executed electronically.


GVI Forex john  12:31:24 GMT - 12/27/2010  
Not precisely sure of the logic but the Nikkei and JPY reportedly gained in response to the Chinese rate hike. We alluded in our early comments to hopes that official Chinese economic policies might be in the process of becoming a more market oriented. This could include a CNY revaluation.


GVI Forex john  11:15:46 GMT - 12/27/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • China Christmas Day rate hike (+25bp). Only timing was a surprise hits Shanghai Index late in the day (-1.9%) on Monday. 

  • Chatter PBOC will turn now to more market-oriented strategies, such as a CNY revaluation?

  • EURUSD pivots 1.3100. Key 200day average 1.3096 as of Friday close. 

  • No U.S. data due on Monday.

  • Monday holiday in Some centers.

  • East Coast of the U.S. slammed by major winter storm.

  • Early-bird traders will be setting up this week for the start of 2011.





GVI Forex john  20:39:10 GMT - 12/26/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • EURUSD pivoting 1.3100. Key 200day average 1.3096 as of Friday close. 

  • No U.S. data due on Monday.

  • Monday holiday almost everywhere.

  • Early-bird traders will be setting up this week for the start of 2011.





GVI Forex john  17:16:18 GMT - 12/23/2010  
- Presumably SNB was behind the EURUSD and EURCHF spikes a little while ago. Useful to know because it suggests they could come back in again when the markets least suspect it.

- EUR spikes are like sugar highs. They don't last. The SNB quit these plays a while ago once the markets got their number.

- Once they become predictable they only give the markets a trading opportunity.



GVI Forex john  12:49:12 GMT - 12/23/2010  
What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion
- Tension on the Korean Peninsula heightens Both sides threaten the other. USD could benefit on flight-to-safety.
- Additional Chinese monetary policy tightening (administrative) in the works?
- China confirms support for the Eurozone.. 
- EUR has been pivoting 1.3100. The 200-day avg 1.3102. .
- A Slew of U.S. data due this morning.
- Europe mainly closed next Monday and Tuesday.



GVI Forex john  23:27:37 GMT - 12/22/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Japan is closed for a holiday on Thursday (Emperor's birthday).

  • South Korea to hold another live fire exercise Thursday.

  • Additional Chinese monetary policy tightening (administrative) in the works?

  • Press report China to buy EUR4-5bln in Portuguese bonds gave EUR a boost, but importantly the surge quickly faded. 

  • EUR has been pivoting 1.3100. The 200-day avg 1.3102.

  • Europe mainly closed next Monday and Tuesday. Half-day Thursday for Germany.

  • BOE Minutes suggest a policy tightening in mid-2011.

  • A Slew of U.S. data set for Thursday morning.

  • U.S. Christmas holiday to be observed Friday. Thursday half-day session. 





GVI Forex john  12:21:17 GMT - 12/22/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion
 
- Press report China to buy EUR4-5bln in Portuguese bonds. Waiting for confirmation. 
- Expect sovereign debt problems well into 2011. 
- BOE Minutes suggest policy tightening in mid-2011. 
- Additional Chinese monetary policy tightening (administrative) in the works? 
- EUR is back above 1.3100. The 200-day avg 1.3105. 
- South Korea to hold another live fire exercise Thursday. 
- U.S. Christmas holiday to be observed Friday. Thursday half-day session.  
- Europe mainly closed next Monday and Tuesday.  
- Long-term U.S. interest rates.10-yr 3.33%, +2bp. 
 


GVI Forex john  23:03:36 GMT - 12/21/2010  

WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:
What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion
  • DOWNGRADES: Fitch threatens Greece. Moody's threatens Portugal. Downgrades two Spanish regions. Expect sovereign debt problems well into 2011.
  •  
  • EUR closing below 1.3100. The 200-day moving average is 1.3105.
  •  
  • BOJ policy statement was dovish. Deflation remains.
  •  
  • Short week with U.S. Christmas holiday being observed on Friday and half-day Thursday. Europe mainly closed next Monday and Tuesday. Asia mixed.
  •  
  • Heavy U.S. data push Wednesday through early Thursday.
  •  
  • Long-term U.S. interest rates.10-yr 3.31%, -3bp.
  •  



    Mtl JP  20:06:21 GMT - 12/21/2010  
    john 19:49 - that is probably just juniors trading with limited authority (or euros left) to sell.

    I still think there are bigger fish now rather peeved that they did not get a price squeeze higher from which to sell into next year. (in French they would be called "leche-vitrine")
    --------
    sidenote: read earlier that those famous Japanese trading housewives are suposed to save the Japanese market via changes designed to ease trading regs in Japan with goal to stimulate the sluggish domestic stock market by spurring active trading by individuals next year.


    GVI Forex john  19:52:23 GMT - 12/21/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    - Several hours ago Fitch put Greece sovereign debt on credit watch negative.
    - That's all it took for EURUSD to break through moving average support just above the 1.3100 line.
    - That goal accomplished, not much else to do. Those buying against support taken out.



    GVI Forex john  15:31:31 GMT - 12/21/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    - EUR boost from promise of Chinese investment support for Euro-zone fading.
    - U.S. equities on a better footing. As a result, U.S. bond prices have eased. 10-yr last 3.334%, 0 bp.
    - EUR flat vs. USD. It is evenly mixed on its major crosses.
    - Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) mixed vs. USD. No clear pattern.
    - EURUSD 200-day average at 1.3108 could be in play later.



    GVI Forex john  13:44:01 GMT - 12/21/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Moody's Threatens Portugal downgrade. Downgrades two Spanish regions.
  • Expect sovereign debt problems well into 2011.
  • BOJ policy statement, reading between the lines. dovish.
  • Korean Peninsula tensions easing..
  • Short week for many. with U.S. Christmas holiday being observed on Friday and half-day Thursday.
  • Europe mainly closed next Monday and Tuesday. Asia mixed.
  • Heavy U.S. data push Wednesday through early Thursday.
  • Long-term U.S. interest rates have turned volatile.10-yr 3.30%, -3bp. 3.50% area now psychological resistance?




  • gvi forex john  09:05:50 GMT - 12/21/2010  
    - sovereign debt issues persist. - dovish boj
    - korea tensions ease


    GVI Forex john  23:43:06 GMT - 12/20/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    What's the Buzz? 21 Dec 10 Far East/Europe 

    What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • Poor tone Monday in the EUR vs. the USD and on its major crosses.

  • Korean Peninsula tensions generating USD flight-to-safety demand at EUR expense.

  • Short week for many. with U.S. Christmas holiday being observed on Friday and half-day Thursday.
  •  
  • Europe mainly closed next Monday and Tuesday.  Asia mixed.

  • Heavy data push on Tuesday through early Thursday.
    Long-term U.S. interest rates have turned volatile.10-yr closed at 3.33%, 0bp. 3.50% area now psychological resistance?

  • European sovereign debt issues still bubble up. French AAA downgrade coming?





  • Lahore FM  21:20:55 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    you are most welcome John..the milkins will always move the market to their advantage even with the far fetched!


    Syd,how inflationary is the environment in Australia these days..how you see RBA acting let us say till mid 2011.what is your rates view?

    will the mining companies and housing sway the indefatigable wayne swan who likes to act like the midwest sherrifs?


    GVI Forex john  20:53:41 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    FM thanks for the info!


    Lahore FM  20:52:14 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    but the quake hit Kerman province...

    Kerman is not one of the oil-producing regions of Iran, the world's fourth-biggest crude exporter. Iran is criss-crossed by major faultlines and is frequently hit by earthquakes.

    Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Magnitude+ earthquake+hits+southern+Iran/4004652/story.html#ixzz18jqDhoRv


    GVI Forex  john  20:44:27 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    - EUR ending up the day with a lousy tone vs. the USD and almost all of its crosses. This looks like more than a flight to safety.

    - Do we see a test of 1.30 this week?

    - WP story about an earthquake in Iran generating crude demand.

    - Yield on 10-yr pressing 3.34%.



    Vienna GD  19:33:38 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    John - there's an Update to my last post, due to new information I got later.


    GVI Forex john  17:51:05 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    GD- Would not surprise me. We should be moving out of deflation reasonably soon and there are all sorts of issues about the value of key paper currencies that will not be resolved soon. We are headed into uncharted territory.


    GVI Forex Jay  17:47:29 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    Welcome Ukraine.


    Ukraine 17:25:16 GMT - 12/20/2010  

    EURUSD
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    Hello!


    Vienna GD  16:55:52 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    John I think we should be prepared for a big move in hard assets very soon: see these Gold charts and these
    Gold charts

    These are my targets until latest March 2011
    Of course I could be wrong - but I doubt that I'm far of the big picture. Let's review in April!


    Israel dil  16:02:47 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    John & JP, waiting for long time in public has the nature to make the waiting people to spend more money while waiting. good for the economy too.


    Mtl JP  15:43:00 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    john 15:41 somebody is mega-thankful to ObL for the just-in-time x-mass over-time pay


    GVI Forex john  15:41:10 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    - Terrorist Risk? Authorities hypersensitive to all POTENTIAL threats. Media as well. Headlines could hit markets.

    - Credit Agency debt downgrades coming out as well. Usually they are a lagging indicator of problems.

    - Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) trading wide ranges, but mixed.

    - U.S. fixed income prices up (lower interest rates). Flight to safety?

    - Equities mixed. Precious metals and energy mixed as well. No clear trading pattern.

    - EUR weak vs. USD and on its major crosses (except CAD).


    GVI Forex john  12:53:39 GMT - 12/20/2010  
    - Technical observation- Note support level 2 in Daily pivot points works out exactly to 1.3000. Definitely a major psychological benchmark as well.


    GVI Forex john  12:50:47 GMT - 12/20/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    --What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion


  • Korean Peninsula tensions generating USD flight-to-safety demand at EUR expense.

  • Northern Europe hit again by crippling storms. Reduced participation implies greater price volatility.

  • Short week for many. with U.S. Christmas holiday being observed on Friday and half-day Thursday.
  •  
  • Europe mainly closed next Monday and Tuesday.  Asia mixed.

  • Heavy data push on Tuesday through early Thursday.
    Long-term U.S. interest rates have turned volatile. 10-yr 3.31%, 1bp. 3.50% area now psychological resistance?

  • European sovereign debt issues still bubble up. French AAA downgrade coming?



  • dc CB  23:29:32 GMT - 12/19/2010  
    Cover Outlook.
    Time Man of the Year puts on that Facebook guy.

    Barrons(remember this is a Murdock publication - along with the Wall Street Journal, DowJones, Fox TV/Cable, NY Post, being just those in the US)...so you can't read it unless you Pay. But a glance at the headlines gives an idea of the push. All is lookin' pretty darn good.

    http://online.barrons.com/home-page


    GVI Forex john  22:08:51 GMT - 12/19/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion
  • European sovereign debt issues still bubbling up periodically.

  • Christmas/New Year breaks in sight. Reduced participation implies greater price volatility.

  • Short week for the U.S. with the Christmas holiday being observed on Friday with a half-day also on Thursday. 

  • Europe mainly closed next Monday and Tuesday.  Asia mixed.

  • U.S. data push on Tuesday through early Thursday.
    Long-term U.S. interest rates have turned volatile. Oftentimes, after a major move prices (yields in this case) turn volatile, This situation often suggests that the markers have started to overreach.



  • GVI Forex  john  20:17:52 GMT - 12/17/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    Quite a reversal over the past two days. Yields on the 10-yr down sharply.
    	Last	chg	ytd
    3M lbr	0.304	-0 	5.4
    US-2Y	0.605	-4 	-53.5
    US-3Y	0.995	-6 	-80.5
    US-5Y	1.944	-10 	-73.6
    US-7Y	2.677	-13 	-57.4
    US-10Y	3.322	-13 	-50.8
    US-30Y	4.403	-15 	4.3
    
    


    GVI Forex john  17:21:49 GMT - 12/17/2010  
    - 10-yr yield below 3.40%. Last 3.38%,-7bp. Higher USD helping. Symbiotic relationship. Perhaps a return to normality?
    - Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) all trading weaker.
    - Gold, Silver and Crude mixed.
    - EUR mixed to lower.
    - Market thinning into the weekend. Expect gappy prices this afternoon.


    GVI Forex john  11:48:53 GMT - 12/17/2010  
    I have no personal view on this but feel obliged to point out that consensus forecasts for the key German IFO data (earlier) have WRONGLY been for a weaker outcome for many months now. Perhaps it will be time to take the other side when the economists capitulate and start to look for strength in the data?


    PAR 11:38:09 GMT - 12/17/2010  
    With QE2 permanent and Bush taxes extended permanently the US economy really will be booming next year. You could see some Chinese like growth figures in America with so much stimuli kicking in.


    GVI Forex john  11:32:01 GMT - 12/17/2010  
    - Ive heard more than a few traders say that they look forward to the period after Christmas and before New Years as their favorite time for trading.
    - Markets tend to go "neutral" lower risk profile before the holidays. This can give you a leg up for the start of the new year if you have a strong view before the big players return.
    - Markets will be thin today and prices could as a result be gappy. So it might pay to adjust your leverage accordingly.


    GVI Forex john  11:23:13 GMT - 12/17/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:

    What's the Buzz? -- What's driving forex now discussion

    • Markets shrug off five notch Irish downgrade by Moodys. Lagging indicator?

    • Christmas/New Year breaks in sight. Reduced participation implies greater price volatility. 

    • German IFO Survey stronger than expected. Despite expectations, the economy keeps rolling on.



    • Long-term U.S. interest rates have turned volatile. Oftentimes, after a major move prices (yields in this case) turn volatile, This situation often suggests that the markers have started to overreach.: 10-yr last 3.41%, -4 bps.

    • U.S. data mostly stronger than expected again on Thursday.  

    • Data calendar for North America is thin on Friday.



    GVI Forex john  22:41:34 GMT - 12/16/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:

    What's the Buzz? -- What's driving forex now discussion

    • Long-term U.S. interest rates have turned volatile. Oftentimes, after a major move prices (yields in this case) turn volatile, This situation often suggests that the markers have started to overreach.: 10-yr last 3.43%, -10 bps. 10-yr 3.50% has been a pivotal level.

    • European sovereign debt issues starting to fade again?

    •  U.S. data mostly stronger than expected again on Thursday.  

    • Split read on EZ PMI data. HICP tame. U.K. retail sales firm..

    • Position-squaring pressures. Christmas/New Year breaks in sight. 

    • German IFO Survey major data overnight. U.S. thin on Friday.





    Cambridge Joe  22:04:51 GMT - 12/16/2010  
    Was it something I said... ?

    GBPCAD just fell off it's perch... and of course.. an attempt to quickly buy in is thwarted by my old friend trade contex being too busy.

    Also a further 'glitch in the matrix means that now the order has gone in... it's at -20 ...

    Should have gone to sleep !


    dc CB  21:57:28 GMT - 12/16/2010  
    Mtl JP 16:52 GMT December 16, 2010
    What's the buzz? : Reply
    CB - an ecomic pannel

    You don't buy a house on it's price, you buy it on the monthly payment.

    If 23% of mortgages are underwater, and interest rates continue up at the current clip...almost 1% in less than a month, the sticker price on houses will have to fall to a balance out the "monthly payment". The number of current owners underwater will increase.......you see where this is going.


    GVI Forex Jay  17:10:53 GMT - 12/16/2010  
    This is what hit the euro a short while ago (note weaker euro crosses). As posted on GVI Forex

    GVI Forex Jay 16:51 GMT December 16, 2010
    Headlines and Discussions: Reply
    Euro just dipped on this - market reacting but should not be a surprise

    * (GR) Moody's places Greece rating on downgrade review; multi-notch downgrade would be possible



    Mtl JP  16:52:50 GMT - 12/16/2010  
    CB - an ecomic pannel here in Canada yesty on TV prognosticated that 20% (saying 5-10-15 as possibilities) house price drop has about 0% chance
    -
    what, in your neck of woods, does "home pricing crash" mean ? I believe current average house price is 214K, but I stand to be corrected.
    --
    would a home pricing crash not be beneficial as it would render housing more accessible to more new buyers ?
    One thing I find perplexing is are those whe have been turffed out in the reposession process for-ever out of the qualifying buyer pool ? IF housing were at some 70% saturation level and millions become credit-stained, where do new buyers come from ?
    tia


    dc CB  16:42:02 GMT - 12/16/2010  
    Permanent Open Market Operations: The Fed purchased $6.78 bln of 2013/2014 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $22.08 bln.

    Tomorrow's POMO takes place in 2028-2040 maturities when the Fed will purchase $1.5-$2.5 bln worth.

    On another note:
    bankrate has just announced that its 30 Year fixed has spiked from 5% to 5.19% overnight - the highest since April 21. Next up: another home pricing crash.


    Mtl JP  16:38:09 GMT - 12/16/2010  
    sounds like the FED suits could easily shut down their shop for that period of time and go on holidays while they wait


    GVI Forex john  16:31:27 GMT - 12/16/2010  
    I believe "extended" in this case means at least six months.


    Mtl JP  16:21:29 GMT - 12/16/2010  
    john re U.S. data continues to run mostly better than expected

    none that apparently count as the "recovery" is apparently too weak to raise rates as prognosticated by Ben, needing more continued stimulus in the form of Ben's intententions to buy $600 billion worth of US gov't paper.
    -
    what does "extended" mean, do you think, measiring time numericaly, in Fed-speak?


    GVI Forex john  16:10:44 GMT - 12/16/2010  

    What's the Buzz? -- What's driving forex now discussion

    • Rising U.S. interest rates USD positive? U.S. 10-yr note yield working higher: Last 3.51%, -3 bps.

    • 10-yr 3.50% pivotal level.

    • European sovereign debt issues starting to fade again?

    • Split read on EZ PMI data. HICP tame. U.K. retail sales firm..

    • Position-squaring pressures. Christmas/New Year breaks in sight. 

    •  U.S. data continues to run mostly better than expected.  



    San Diego LC  19:40:05 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    USDJPY through 84.40, ten yr yield at 3.557%. If 84.40 + 3.5% holds, I think we see 86 USDJPY quite soon...


    GVI Forex Jay  19:04:53 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    JP, 3.50% 10 year appears toi be the current line in the sand


    Mtl JP  18:57:35 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    IF the yield is reflecting anticipated growth then players have not been listening to Ben who continues to - unclearly ? - trumpet that his policies are not producing the designed effect.

    I can only think of one reason players are demanding and getting higher yield: because they can - those that are at the leading edge of the lineup recieving the money inflow: namely raw commodity players. Unlike the un-employed asking for pay raise before he even has a job.

    At this stage of 3.488% I wonder how much upside there is left. (ignoring that a bond's ultimate low price is 0)


    GVI Forex john  18:41:40 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    1) There is no doubt that recent U.S. data almost universally have been pointing to a pick-up in non-inflationary (for now) growth.

    2) The Obama/Congressional tax/spending plan is seen as supportive of additional growth.

    3) The 10-yr yield 3.49% is much too high for a 0% fed funds rate. Could be the markets are not in a position to absorb additional supply? It might also be that investors see 3.49% as much too low for 10-yrs. It might also be that the markets do not trust the Fed. The 10-yr note lives in a different universe from #1 and #2. The three are not incompatible.

    Thus good news for USD in the short run 2-3 years could turn very negative beyond that time frame. As forex traders we all live in the short run. As for the long term, recall the forex market has a very short attention span.



    Mtl JP  18:29:00 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    john one moment it is "better growth picture" (on 0 extending W's tax deal), next it is a no confidence vote in Ben and his FED backstopping the Fed gov't deficit.

    A lot of weight is attached to market positionning: what is the market ratio betting on lower bonds ? The unwind could be interesting.

    Pray tell your esteemed view on where the 10 yr yield top is, all things considered.
    tia


    GVI Forex john  18:13:48 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    Market Update
    - Commodity currencies AUD, CAD, NZD) mixed. As noted below, CAD has been strong.
    - Gold, Silver and Crude mixed. No obvious pattern here.
    - Equities are mixed.
    - EUR has tanked vs.USD and mostly softer on its crosses.
    - EUR seems not to like latest sovereign debt developments, but odds are these concerns fade again.
    - U.S, 10-yr yield working higher again. Seems to be a reaction to a better growth picture for the U.S. Inflation and Job creation remain tame.



    Mtl JP  14:54:51 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    CK - according to the guardian "It is now expected that it could be 6pm at the earliest before the Dáil ratifies both the banking reforms and the international financial bailout. The vote had originally been due to take place at 1.30pm."
    -
    assume times are local


    Mtl JP  13:43:52 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    john 12:10 - piece in barrons argues FED's spray hose IS political
    http://online.barrons.com/article/ SB5000142405297020483100457602 1211797260254.html?mod=BOL_hpp_highlight


    UK CK  13:13:45 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    What time is the irish budget vote?


    Mtl JP  13:08:13 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    john 12:10 - re 10yr yield rise as Vote of no-confidence in the Fed yesterday.

    could you be more specific: Vote of no-confidence by who exactly - which market segment are the types driving yields higher and kneecapping Ben's plan for business to incite them to hire more people ?
    ----
    Price-inflation starts with those at the head of economic food chain: raw commodity players, not those last in line, namely (un)employees / consumer and their demand.

    When Ben and his team of expert economists look at retail sales for indications of economic growth they look at prices. Not volume / weight shipped. Huge mistake.


    GVI Forex Jay  12:41:27 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    Timely and insightful post by John in What's the Buzz --

    Hard to believe sovereign debt issues back in play. Could fade fast.



    London Mick  12:19:38 GMT - 12/15/2010  
    This is typical December trading and it will only get more choppy as each day passes,


    GVI Forex john  12:10:33 GMT - 12/15/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:

    What's the Buzz? -- What's driving forex now discussion

    • Hard to believe sovereign debt issues back in play. Could fade fast.

    • U.S. 10-yr note last 3.42%, 0 bps. Vote of no-confidence in the Fed yesterday..

    • Fed leaves policy steady as expected. Statement virtually unchanged.

    • Will have to see if the markets perceive higher interest rates as a USD positive or negative.

    • U.K. CBI better than forecast. Japan Tankan weak, but better than forecast ,Forecasts for weaker end 1Q11.

    • Position-squaring pressures. Christmas/New Year breaks in view. 

    • Active calendar from North America. Wednesday. U.S. data  running better than expected recently.  

    • Key Irish vote IMF/EU bailout plan vote today? 



    GVI Forex john  23:01:42 GMT - 12/14/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:

    What's the Buzz? -- What's driving forex now discussion

    • Fed leaves policy steady as expected. Statement virtually unchanged.

    • .U.S. 10-yr note last 3.47%, +19bps. Looks like a vote of no-confidence in the Fed.

    • Will have to see if the markets perceive higher interest rates as a USD positive or negative.

    • U.S./German data Tuesday stronger than expected.

    • Position-squaring pressures. Christmas/New Year breaks coming into view. 

    • Active calendar from North America. Wednesday. U.S. data  running better than expected recently.  

    • Key Irish vote IMF/EU bailout plan vote Wednesday. 





    nyc s  19:34:03 GMT - 12/14/2010  
    It is too random choppy for my heart - I may have to call 911


    Mtl JP  19:29:00 GMT - 12/14/2010  
    dr unken katt / direction => recovery
    always direction of recovery.
    to what or when we do not know.


    to dr unken katt   19:25:37 GMT - 12/14/2010  
    so whats the direction fellas?


    GVI Forex Jay  19:24:16 GMT - 12/14/2010  
     
    More on the trendline - see 5 min chart - note support


    GVI Forex Jay  18:34:38 GMT - 12/14/2010  
    I need to preface this by saying I am not a technican and what I have learned is on the job and not from a textbook.

    A long time ago, when I first learned about technicals, a commodities trader sat me down and showed me how he draws trendlines off intermediate highs and lows. I am not sure if the term is still used but it is the basis for how I look at charts.

    I hope this is a textbook explanation. An intermediate high is a higher high surrounded by lower highs on each side but only becomes a valid chart point if a new low for the move is made following the high. Vice versa for intermediate lows.

    I use these as my key support or resistance points and to draw trendlines.


    GVI Forex john  18:22:54 GMT - 12/14/2010  
    Jay - can you explain what an intermediate high or low is?


    GVI Forex Jay  18:20:54 GMT - 12/14/2010  
     
    Tech Talk:

    This is an example of how I use trendlines (only ones drawn off intermediate highs and lows). Note the EUR/USD 5 min chart and how the top end held.


    GVI Forex john  18:18:17 GMT - 12/14/2010  
    - The big surprise today would be any hint of a Fed tightening.
    - We would be very surprised if they do.


    Mtl JP  17:45:53 GMT - 12/14/2010  
    ya, that is the ticket: cite improving economy
    so lets remove "extended" and suggest possibility of higher US rates. Can' t let that inflation demon get out of hand as Ben insisted that he will both know when and how.


    GVI Forex john  17:41:33 GMT - 12/14/2010  
    Whats the Buzz? Market Update..
    - FOMC decision @ 19:15 GMT No policy change seen
    - Fed should cite improving economy.
    - U.S. data earlier today positive. Same for Germany.
    - U. K. inflation this AM above target. QE2 speculation dead.
    - Not clear why interest rates have been drifting higher today.
    - Commodity currencies are mixed.
    - Equities are up.
    - EUR up vs USD, but mostly lower on its major crosses.
    - USD often sees seasonal weakness into year-end.

    Please feel free to comment !


    GVI Forex john  13:24:17 GMT - 12/14/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:

    What's the Buzz? -- What's driving forex now discussion

  • U.S. bonds center-focus for sentiment. 10-yr note last 3.31%, +3bps.

  • Position-squaring pressures starting to ease? Christmas/New Year breaks coming into view. 

  • Active calendar from North America. U.S. data  running better than expected recently. Fed Later. Seen unchanged. 

  • Key Irish vote IMF/EU bailout plan vote on Wednesday, December 15. 





  • GVI Forex john  23:31:27 GMT - 12/13/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    • U.S. bonds center-focus for sentiment. 10-yr note last 3.28%, - 5bps.

    • Position-squaring pressures easing?

    • No major data from North America Monday. U.S. data  running better than expected very recently.

    • Christmas/New Year breaks coming into view.  Perhaps behind some of the position-squaring.

    • China did not hike rates after raising Bank Required Reserve Ratio Friday. CPI above expectations on Saturday.   

    • Key Irish vote IMF/EU bailout plan vote on Wednesday, December 15. 





    GVI Forex john  15:34:20 GMT - 12/13/2010  
    - For the first time in a while Commodity Currency (AUD CAD NZD) group is stronger vs. USD.
    - Gold, Silver, Nat Gas and Crude are higher.
    - Equities are up.
    - All above are a Risk Trade profile.
    - Fixed income markets are marginally weaker (higher yields).
    - USD generally softer. EUR better vs. USD but mixed on its crosses.
    - Looks like a low conviction market.


    GVI Forex Jay  15:06:49 GMT - 12/13/2010  
    Also posted earlier on GVI Forex

    Interesting eur/usd daily chart - no clear trend (note down trendline broken and never renewed). Note the 20 and 100 day mva converging today at 1.3351.



    GVI Forex Jay  14:26:35 GMT - 12/13/2010  
    Note key levels: I posted this earlier on GVI Forex

    Tech Talk:
    EUR/USD:
    1.3294 = 50% of 1.3421-1.3166 (also around 100 4 hour mva) - just tested

    1.3322 = Key 1 hour chart resistance
    1.3324 = 61.8% of 1.3421-1.3166


    GVI Forex john  13:58:02 GMT - 12/13/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    • U.S. bonds center-focus for sentiment. 10-yr note last 3.37%, +4bps.

    • NEW WEEK. No major data from North America today. U.S. data  running better than expected very recently.

    • Christmas/New Year breaks coming into view.  Perhaps behind some of the position-squaring.

    • China did not hike rates after raising Bank Required Reserve Ratio Friday. CPI above expectations on Saturday.  

    • AUD China proxy. We have to differentiate between China now and the future. Markets know present and discount the future. 

    • Key Irish vote IMF/EU bailout plan vote on Wednesday, December 15.  USDJPY supported by rising U.S. 2-yr yields. 

    • Good 2-yr correlations with AUDUSD and USDCAD.



    GVI Forex john  21:53:01 GMT - 12/12/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    -- Far East/Europe Trading Topics --

    What's the Buzz? -- What's driving forex now discussion

    • NEW WEEK. No major data from anywhere today, Christmas/New Year breaks coming into view. 

    • U.S. data has been running better than expected very recently.

    • China CPI reinforced Friday PBOC decision to tighten policy by hiking Bank Required Reserve Ratio.

    • AUD a proxy for the China. Must differentiate between China now and where its headed. Markets know present and discount the future. 

    • U.S. bonds likely to remain center-focus for sentiment. 10-yr note ended week at 3.28%. 2.94% was Monday's close.

    • Key Irish vote IMF/EU bailout plan vote on Wednesday, December 15.  USDJPY supported by rising U.S. 2-yr yields. 

    • Good 2-yr correlations with AUDUSD and USDCAD.





    GVI Forex john  16:41:42 GMT - 12/10/2010  
    Yes they are imprecise, but they often do reflect direction and the markets react to them because thats all we get.


    Mtl JP  16:39:00 GMT - 12/10/2010  
    john 16:31 I should have put my Q in quote marks.
    I meant to imply Chinese numbers are, like those out of US, primarily bogus.

    That does not however mean that market does not react to them. As long as market trades on the margin so especially sensitive to outsized releases - a never-ending game.


    GVI Forex john  16:31:26 GMT - 12/10/2010  
    JP- Re China data: what I want does not matter. Chatter in Asia this week is that November yr/yr CPI will be even higher than the 4.7% level (vs. 4.7% in Oct) expected. Some are saying the data are being released on Saturday to bury the headline.

    That means the data could be worse than expected. Note the PBOC already tightened policy today. Will a rate hike follow next? Of course Chinese data are not the most reliable and are subject more than others to political influence.

    These data most directly impact the currencies of countries who are large exporters to China. In particular Australia (AUD) is seen as a China proxy. Also, Japan exports a lot to China and by inference the NZD should be influenced among others.



    Mtl JP  15:53:19 GMT - 12/10/2010  
    China Key economic data:
    what would you like the data to be ?


    GVI Forex john  15:52:54 GMT - 12/10/2010  
    - Commodity Currency (AUD, CAD, NZD) risk trades continue not to work.
    - Gold down, but Sliver steady. Crude softer. no risk trades here.
    - Equities flat. - ditto.
    - U.S. data USD constructive. Now it reacts positively to good data?
    - EUR spot and crosses mostly weaker on the day.



    GVI Forex john  15:46:54 GMT - 12/10/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    10 December 2010 -- North America/Europe Trading Topics

    CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION of what Forex markets are trading on.
    • U.S. data released today better than expected.
    • China monetary policy tightened by raising Bank Required Ratio. Key economic data due Saturday.
    • U.S. bonds likely to remain center-focus for sentiment.
    • 10-yr note now 3.25%, +4bps. 2.94% was Monday's close.
    • Key Irish vote IMF/EU bailout plan vote on Wednesday, December 15.
    • USDJPY supported by rising U.S. 2-yr yields. Good correlations with AUDUSD and USDCAD
    Hit Reply to respond. This must be two-way feature to work. We need your comments to keep it current. We also need contributions on the technicals.

    Click on the title link for details over past days.



    GVI Forex  john  11:16:48 GMT - 12/10/2010  

    LATEST TRADING PIVOT POINTS
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    Pivots from a EUR Point of View...
    Pivots	EURUSD	EURJPY	EURCHF	EURGBP	EURCAD	EURAUD
    Res 3	1.3475	112.54	1.3200	0.8478	1.3515	1.3669
    Res 2	1.3398	112.10	1.3148	0.8447	1.3468	1.3611
    Res 1	1.3319	111.44	1.3083	0.8422	1.3432	1.3580
    
    Pivot	1.3242	111.00	1.3031	0.8391	1.3385	1.3522
    
    Sup 1	1.3163	110.34	1.2966	0.8366	1.3349	1.3491
    Sup 2	1.3086	109.90	1.2914	0.8335	1.3302	1.3433
    Sup 3	1.3007	109.24	1.2849	0.8310	1.3266	1.3402
    						
    TREND	EURUSD	EURJPY	EURCHF	EURGBP	EURCAD	EURAUD
    BIAS	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down
    
    


    GVI Forex john  11:13:18 GMT - 12/10/2010  
    - EURUSD steady, but EUR universally weaker on its crosses.
    - China tightening not a surprise. Eyes on interest rates next and CPI data on Saturday.


    Quito Valdez  01:02:33 GMT - 12/10/2010  
    GVI Forex john 23:15 GMT December 9, 2010
    John, thank you for your contuing tips and valuable information for old and new traders alike. Just to let you know it's much appreciated.

    Short EUR/USD 1.3229, 1.3234, short order placed also at 1.3234 , TPs and other placements will come manually all the way to 1.30.


    Quito Valdez  01:02:31 GMT - 12/10/2010  
    GVI Forex john 23:15 GMT December 9, 2010
    John, thank you for your contuing tips and valuable information for old and new traders alike. Just to let you know it's much appreciated.

    Short EUR/USD 1.3229, 1.3234, short order placed also at 1.3234 , TPs and other placements will come manually all the way to 1.30.


    GVI Forex john  23:15:21 GMT - 12/09/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    For those interested in the why's of forex price moves. You will soon learn that the market tends to trade on transitory themes. That is what our ongoing Whats the Buzz Discussion is all about.

    We would love to see MANY more contributions from traders who rely mostly on the technicals. Many professional traders use a hybrid system. They use fundamentals to set a bias and then the technicals to execute their trades.


    GVI Forex john  23:10:10 GMT - 12/09/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    10 December 2010 -- Far East/Europe Trading Topics

    CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION of what Forex markets are trading on.
    • U.S. Bonds were in the lead again Thursday. The focus was on the 30-yr bond auction after the disasterous day in the 10-yr on Wednesday. Bond dealers did what they had to do on Tuesday and Wednesday to adjust prices/yields to reflect current realities and the 30-yr did well.
    • 10-yr note now 3.21%, +1bps. 2.94% was Monday's close.
    • Fitch downgraded Ireland 3 notches to BBB+ from A+. Outlook STABLE. Key Irish IMF/EU bailout plan vote on December 15.
    • China monetary policy tightening signaled this weekend by moving economic data releases forward to Saturday.
    • USDJPY supported by rising U.S. 2-yr yields. Good correlations with AUDUSD and USDCAD
    • Active U.S. data calendar on Friday.
    Hit Reply to respond. This must be two-way feature to work. We need your comments to keep it current. We also need contributions on the technicals.

    Click on the title link for details over past days.



    GVI Forex john  18:18:12 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    For those interested in the why's of forex price moves. You will soon learn that the market tends to trade on transitory themes. That is what our ongoing Whats the Buzz Discussion is all about.

    We would love to see MANY more contributions from traders who rely mostly on the technicals. Many professional traders use a hybrid system. They use fundamentals to set a bias and then the technicals to execute their trades.


    dc CB  18:16:21 GMT - 12/09/2010  
     
    The 30 has always been the weakest auction and given the aggresssive sell off in the Bond market the same or worse was expected.


    GVI Forex john  18:10:44 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    - When Issued (pre-auction price) was 4.4455. 30yr auction yield was 4.410%. Treasury yields falling across the board. A bit esoteric for some forex traders but this is what the market is all about right now.


    PAR 18:08:51 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    Who is buying those bonds ? Bernanke & Co ?


    GVI Forex john  18:07:27 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    - Stronger than expected 30-yr auction (lower than expected yield) EURUSD much stronger.


    GVI Forex john  16:17:29 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    - Waiting for 30-yr auction at 18:00 GMT last 4.450%, +2bp. Odds are dealers cheapened prices (higher yields) enough on Tuesday and Wednesday to place the paper. We will see.
    - Higher interest for the right reasons (not inflation worries) are USD supportive. They really matter!
    - Mixed picture in the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD).
    - EUR spot and crosses weak. Irish uncertainties a factor again. Vote set for December 15.
    - Gold and Silver up a bit Crude softer. Equities mixed. Not a risk-on environment.


    GVI Forex john  15:43:54 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    - Headlines out of Ireland regarding the IMF/EU bailout referendum vote in Parliament have been behind a lot of the volatility in EURUSD today.
    - Latest headline said two independent MPs will vote with the government, so presumably it will pass. Opposition parties are not clearly showing their hands.
    - The vote was set today for December 15.


    GVI Forex john  14:11:49 GMT - 12/09/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    9 December 2010 -- North America/Europe Trading Topics

    CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION of what Forex markets are trading on.
    • U.S. Bonds off to a quiet start today. It may be that bond dealers did what they had to do on Tuesday and Wednesday to adjust prices/yields to reflect current realities. Higher interest rates are USD supportive and a main driver of forex market prices.
    • 10-yr note now 3.20%, -4bps. 2.94% was Monday's close.
    • U.S. Treasury Auctions: $13bn 30yr Thursday. Last 4.426%, 0bp.
    • Fitch downgraded Ireland 3 notches to BBB+ from A+. Outlook STABLE. Another key Irish budget vote Thursday.
    • Australian jobs data muc stronger than expected: AUD positive.
    • China monetary policy tightening signaled this weekend by moving economic data releases forward to Saturday.
    • USDJPY supported by rising U.S. 2-yr yields. Good correlations with AUDUSD and USDCAD
    Hit Reply to respond. This must be two-way feature to work. We need your comments to keep it current. We also need contributions on the technicals.

    Click on the title link for details over past days.



    GVI Forex john  11:49:06 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    BOE at the top of the hour. No changes expected.


    Mtl JP  11:32:47 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    john 11:20 - thank you.
    RBA has, at least currently, an enviable "problem": an economy on fire.


    GVI Forex john  11:20:51 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    JP- Data has questioned basic perceptions about the Australian economy that it has been slowing. The RBA will first have to look to other data for confirmation. As for an interest rate hike, the Reserve Bank does not meet in January. Its next meeting is on February 1, 2011.

    Key for AUD as well will be the strength of Chinese data as many see it as a proxy China trade.


    GVI Forex john  11:12:59 GMT - 12/09/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
     
    Australian employment data much stronger than expected (volatile data series).


    Mtl JP  11:10:04 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    john no longer buzz but history
    the next Q is: will RBA hike rate


    GVI Forex john  11:02:18 GMT - 12/09/2010  
    - AUDUSD up strongly on much better than expected employment data (earlier today). Jobs gained 54,600 vs +20K estimated and the unemployment rate eased to 5.2% vs 5.4%.


    - 3Q10 Japanese GDP revised higher but there is still a lot of talk about a recession in 2011.


    GVI Forex john  23:17:00 GMT - 12/08/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    9 December 2010 -- Far East/Europe Trading Topics

    CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION of what Forex markets are trading on.
    • Wednesday was another difficult day for bonds. 10-yr auction went ok after prices were taken drastically lower (higher yields). Hard to call it a good auction in that context, Higher interest rates were USD supportive and the main driver of forex market prices.
    • 10-yr note now 3.27%, +15bps. 2.94% was Monday's close.
    • U.S. Treasury Auctions: $13bn 30yr Thursday. Last 4.458% +8.9bp WI 4.468 - 4.445.
    • Phase one of Irish budget vote passed. Another keyvote Thursday.
    • China monetary policy tightening signaled this weekend by moving economic data releases forward to Saturday.
    • USDJPY supported by rising U.S. 2-yr yields. Good correlations with AUDUSD and USDCAD
    Hit Reply to respond. This must be two-way feature to work. We need your comments to keep it current. We also need contributions on the technicals.

    Click on the title link for details over past days.



    dc CB  18:41:49 GMT - 12/08/2010  
     
    from ZeroHedge. chart of 10Y auction results this year


    dc CB  18:32:45 GMT - 12/08/2010  
     
    tnx


    GVI Forex john  18:06:34 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    10-yr closed at 2.94% on Monday.

    Big moves for this market.


    GVI Forex john  18:05:14 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    10-yr Results
    Yield 3.340%:
    8.71% At High
    Bid-To-Cover: 2.92
    Indirect Bid: 44%
    Direct Bid: 11%
    Coupon: 2.625%


    NYC jr  17:56:46 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    Also if the fed doesnt lose money it isnt stimulus


    GVI Forex john  17:51:55 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    Pre-auction 10-yr WI 3.318- 3.298


    Mtl JP  17:50:06 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    john maybe wikileaks will release FED's audited statement - as a x-mas gift


    GVI Forex john  17:49:55 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    Only if the Fed accountants don't mark their positions to market. Most of what the Fed has been buying is in the 5-7 year range. You also have to figure in their cost of funds against the yield. Even for the Fed money is not free.


    GVI Forex Jay  17:34:10 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    There is only a loss if the Fed sells the bonds from its portfolio. If the Fed holds to maturity, there is no loss except on a mark to market.


    GVI Forex john  17:33:37 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    JP- I guess we just have to trust them. They certainly are audited.


    Mtl JP  17:27:16 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    john 17:19 - how do we KNOW that "Fed profits each year are passed onto the U.S. Treasury" ?

    It is not as if the FED is a public company with shareholders and audited financial statements (like the SNB has shareholders for example)


    GVI Forex john  17:19:12 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    PAR- you raise an interesting question. If the Fed winds up holding huge amounts of U.S. government debt, then it will have to take the losses itself. All of the Fed profits each year are passed onto the U.S. Treasury. I assume the same pertains to losses. So in the end, the government will wind up paying more for its borrowing than initially thought.


    Mtl JP  16:37:06 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    PAR unlike me (and probably you too) Ben has an unlimited supply of things that IF you and I created out of thin air (and if caught) would be considered crimal and land one in jail.


    PAR 16:24:49 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    Someone must have huge losses on his Us treasury positions among one of the biggest selloffs ever seen in treasuries.
    Is it a hedge fund or is it just trader Bernanke ?


    GVI Forex john  16:13:58 GMT - 12/08/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    Market Observations:
    - Commodity currencies (AUD,CAD, NZD) weaker but CAD not participating. Risk off -- sort of.
    - U.S. Treasuries weak again as air is let out of the Treasury price bubble. 10-yr last 3.28%, +15bp ugly.
    - 10yr auction at 18:00 GMT 10-yr WI 3.283 - 3.263.
    - Talk of switching from bonds to stocks but we are do not see it in stock indices.
    - EUR spots and crosses mostly weaker. EURJPY up.
    - USDJPY highly sensitive to rising U.S. 2-yr. Same for AUD and CAD. Correlation positive with rising U.S. yields.

    Comments, Additions? Trading Ideas?



    GVI Forex john  14:40:24 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    AS- Thats what Ben will be asking.


    Belgrade AS  14:36:45 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    even with tax cuts excluded from analisys,we are back to John's logical question how can yields go up in the middle of a 800bill bond purchase(QEII)
    right?


    GVI Forex john  14:35:37 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    Jay I would say AUD and CAD are the MOST sensitive. But certainly true re JPY


    GVI Forex john  14:34:34 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    Chris we have been hearing the same today. Bads news for bonds good news for shares. Does EURUSD trade on rates or shares?????


    GVI Forex Jay  14:34:22 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    JPY tends to be most sensitive to moves in US yields.



    Mtl JP  14:29:02 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    AS 14:16 Ben is backstopping tax cuts related less income for govnmt


    London Chris  14:21:11 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    They have been running out of bonds into stocks.


    Belgrade AS  14:16:07 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    re:u.s. yields/FX
    my guess is that yesterdays moves have everything to do with tax cuts in usa.
    tax cuts mean less income for govnmt.this is by default debt-negative event.debt-negative is by definition ccy-negative.
    so,the big "buzzin'" question is "why in the world did usd go up?"...to rephrase it:foreigners ran out of u.s.debt into fiat usd to do WHAT with it???


    GVI Forex john  13:43:50 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    See moving averages in this post or Market Tracker.

    I think current the price action has a lot to do with year-end. We could also be letting a little air out of the bond bubble.


    GVI Forex john 11:13 GMT December 8, 2010
    GVI Forex Trading Support: Reply
    MOVING AVERAGES
    :


    Mtl JP  13:38:20 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    john 13:35 there was earlier talk of a 200dma.
    I believe the number was 3.07%
    Think current action is a JUBBs ?


    GVI Forex john  13:35:52 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    Won't keep this up all day , but 10-yr last 3.187% +6
    Waiting to see how NY trades after overseas markets drove yields higher.


    GVI Forex Jay  13:33:19 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    - FX market is trading hyper sensitive to moves in US yields (bonds)


    GVI Forex john  13:07:46 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    10-yr still weak last 2.23% +10.


    GVI Forex john  12:25:43 GMT - 12/08/2010  
    - Fixed income off to a rough start heading into the N.Y. open. If prices start to stabilize and recover some ground, such a development would be a weight on the USD.


    GVI Forex john  12:20:49 GMT - 12/08/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
     
    We cited the US 2-yr note yesterday several times as a driver in USDJPY. Its not always even, but the correlation is there. Note Chart.


    GVI Forex john  12:13:37 GMT - 12/08/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    8 December 2010 -- North America/Europe Trading Topics

    CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION of what Forex markets are trading on.
    • Tuesday was one of most difficult days in recent memory in fixed income. Appropriately 10-yr auction today at 18:00 GMT 10-yr last 3.19% +7bp.
    • On Monday 3.00% was market sentiment barometer. WI now 3.198-3.185. U.S. Treasury Auctions: $21bn 10yr Wednesday and $13bn 30yr Thursday.
    • Obama tax/spending stimulus agreement. He is to get his party in line.
    • Phase one of Irish budget vote passed. Next vote Thursday.
    • China monetary policy tightening signaled this weekend by moving economic data releases forward to Saturday.
    • USDJPY supported by rising U.S. 2-yr yields.
    Hit Reply to respond. This must be two-way feature to work. We need your comments to keep it current. We also need contributions on the technicals.

    Click on the title link for details over past days.



    GVI Forex john  23:29:09 GMT - 12/07/2010  
    Ahead of the 10-yr auction Wednesday. The WI (When-Issued) price is 3.135-3.115.


    GVI Forex john  23:24:31 GMT - 12/07/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    8 December 2010 -- Far East/Europe Trading Topics

    CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION of what Forex markets are trading on.
    • One of the most difficult days in recent memory in fixed income markets.
    • Still watching how U.S. 10-yr trades vis-a-vis 3.00% level. Market sentiment barometer.
    • U.S. Treasury Auctions: $21bn 10yr Wednesday and $13bn 30yr Thursday.
    • Obama tax/spending stimulus agreement. He to get his party in line.
    • Phase one of Irish budget vote passed. Next vote Thursday.
    • E-Z "E-bonds" idea deferred. EU FinMins require a crisis to make a decision.
    • China monetary policy tightening likely this weekend.
    • USDJPY supported by rising U.S. 2-yr yields.
    Hit Reply to respond. This must be two-way feature to work. We need your comments to keep it current. We also need contributions on the technicals.

    Click on the title link for details over past days.



    GVI Forex john  23:23:15 GMT - 12/07/2010  

    WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
    Entry: Target: Stop:
    Whats the Buzz? is intended to be a continuous discussion of what is driving the forex markets news, fundamentals, technicals, etc.






    Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

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