EUR/USD 4 hour -- held a test of the 100 period mva (green line)
GVI Forex Jay 20:13:28 GMT - 01/12/2011
EUR/USD 1 hour -- move above the 100 hour mva (green line) was supportive, tested above the 200 hour mva (yellow line, currently 1.3120) so see if it holds
GVI Forex Jay 20:10:54 GMT - 01/12/2011
Keeping it simple:
EUR/USD 5 min chart was a guide today
GVI Forex Jay 18:24:53 GMT - 01/12/2011
As posted on GVI Forex:
GVI Forex Jay 17:33 GMT January 12, 2011
Tech Talk: Reply
Not much in the 1.31-1.32 range other than:
1.3151 = 20 day mva
1.3154 = 50% of 1.3433-1.2875
1.3170 = minor Jan 4 high
Note 1.3200 was the breakdown level following the ADP survey that came out a week ago (was it only one week ago!).
tokyo rana 14:27:21 GMT - 01/12/2011
Richland QC Mailman 14:09 dear friend,sorry correction...if ur trade is for short time maybe ok if u keep oz for somedays it cud be danger im expecting good numbers from oz tomorrow....dec job data is due tomorrow....itink if this time audusd go above 1.00 then it will take time to break below 1.00 and high swaps last time i paid lots of swap very expensive to short audusd better wait....eurusd shorts always better then audusd both moves in same direction imiss choice nov short audusd instead of eurusd but iwill short again audusd 1.04 or audjpy 83.9/84.3....happy day,
tokyo rana 14:20:52 GMT - 01/12/2011
Richland QC Mailman 14:09 dear friend,if ur trade for short maybe if u keep for oz it cud danger im expecting good numbers from oz tomorrow....dec job data is due tomorrow....happy day,
Richland QC Mailman 14:12:11 GMT - 01/12/2011
Thanks Jay for your very timely technical posts too.
Richland QC Mailman 14:09:01 GMT - 01/12/2011
It will now be interesting to see if gbp and euro will break the high of today or fail on the first attempt.
Aussie - Watch out 9940/30 as probable reversal point. Looking to short there.
GVI Forex Jay 14:09:01 GMT - 01/12/2011
Mailman, nice trades
Richland QC Mailman 14:03:39 GMT - 01/12/2011
Thanks SAS! closed all these longs.
Dubai SAS 14:00:49 GMT - 01/12/2011
Mailman - Great buys (Eur + Gbp) !
London Mick 13:53:22 GMT - 01/12/2011
Confounding turns into logical
Richland QC Mailman 13:43:20 GMT - 01/12/2011
Finally... usd weak again at least vs. gbp, euro and aussie.
Richland QC Mailman 12:53:48 GMT - 01/12/2011
Thanks Jay for these timely info. Opened up some good longs 1.2970 on speculation the bear tone has gone soft. Bulls now set to take center stage. Longs for gbp also above 1.5600.
prague mark 12:22:24 GMT - 01/12/2011
AL, thank you for "equilibrium" remark
Tonbridge AL 12:14:40 GMT - 01/12/2011
Jay to add weight to the 62% there is a low from 20 hours ago there 1.2940-1.2945 and should we go for an outside day then 1.2845 would produce equilibrium as a support on new lows
GVI Forex Jay 11:52:22 GMT - 01/12/2011
12:00 GMT (Global-View.com) January 12 - As I noted, last week the technicals tried to lead the euro fundamentals and this week the focus was on the latter to confirm the former. However, so far this has not materialized and this saw the eur/usd regain the 1.30+ level although briefly. The Portugal bond auction showed a good result on the surface but the euro sold off in what appeared to be a buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction. On the upside, the high today was at S2:
1.3045 = S2 – tested and capped the upside
1.3075 = 200 day mva
1.3088 = 38.2% of 1.30433-1.2875
1.3098 = S3
12:20 GMT (Global-View.com) January 11 - While last week’s euro meltdown was driven by technicals, the market focus is on fundamentals this week. This has attention on peripheral bond auctions over the next two days and market reaction to them. Portugal will issue 2014 and 2020 bonds and Italy 2015 bonds on Wednesday. Spain will auction 2016 bonds on Thursday. In the meantime, the eur/usd brief overnight break of 1.2968 and subsequent failure just below 1.3000 took out weak buy stops and left little to go after on the upside until the day high (1.2990). On the downside, yesterday’s low at 1.2873 is the only level worth noting other than a minor one at S1 = 1.2895 so little to go after on the downside until the low. This suggests a consolidation day but if yesterday's low holds, it would be the first higher low/higher high day since Jan 4 and hold out the risk of a retracement. Using 1.3433-1.2875:
1.3007 = 23.6%
1.3088 = 38.2%
GVI Forex Jay 12:20:20 GMT - 01/10/2011
12:20 GMT (Global-View.com) January 10 - Today is like a post-Katrina (i.e. disaster) type event where the market steps back to assess the damage. In this case the technical damage to the EUR/USD (also its crosses) after last week’s meltdown was severe and opens the door to further losses on the downside (e.g. 1.2796, 1.2645, 1.2626 and 1.2587) while below 1.2968 and 1.3000.
However, the pause on Monday after the initial gap lower has seen steep trendlines broken on both 1 and 4 hour charts. The steep slope of these lines made them vulnerable to a pause but it has at least slowed the move. On the other side, 1.2950 = the daily pivot and only above it would suggest more of a retracement risk. 1.2968 = former support/breakout level and 1.2980 = R1 block a return to 1.3000.
Looking ahead, test for the euro will come with peripheral bond auctions this week:
- Greece 26-week bills on Tuesday.
- Portugal 2014 and 2020 bonds, Italy 2015 bonds on Wednesday
- Spain auction 2016 bonds on Thursday
The reaction to the dent auctions will give a clue how much negative news is already discounted. In any case, expect a limited EUR/USD upside ahead of the results, especially while it stays below 1.2968 and 1.3000.
GVI Forex Jay 12:59:00 GMT - 01/08/2011
EUR/USD daily chart (click on the chart once opened to zoom in)
GVI Forex Jay 12:12:14 GMT - 01/07/2011
12:10 GMT (Global-View.com) - The market has been trading on the US employment report and Non-Farm Payrolls since Wednesday’s surprise leap in jobs reported in the monthly ADP survey. This saw the dollar firm, led by a falling euro, as forecasts for today’s Non-Farm Payrolls were marked higher. This sets the stage for today’s US employment report fireworks with a focus on the EUR/USD 1.30 level, which traded below it Friday for the second day in a row, As the daily chart shows (see below) there was severe technical damage inflicted yesterday:
EUR/USD daily chart )intra-day range so far 1.2960-1.3020):
- broke below 200 day mva (1.3084), trendline (1.3095 today) and key 1.3056 yesterday
- weak euro crosses gave the clue yesterday
- 1.30 clearly determines what comes next
- key support level is 1.2968, briefly broken overnight.
- firm break of 1.2968 would expose 1.2645, 1.2626 and key 1.2587
- above 1.3056 would be needed to slow the risk, above the former trendline and 200 day mva to neutralize
- This sets the stage for today’s NFP roulette at 13:30 GMT where there is risk on both sides on the headline. However, given technicals, logic suggests market should take any “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction, should one occur, as an opportunity to fade unless levels posted above are firmly renewed.
GVI Forex Jay 00:36:09 GMT - 01/07/2011
Note the bounce off major support at 1.2968. This was the key level before the test and now even more significant.
5 minute line broken. Started at 16:00 GMT so about 7 1/2 hours acted as a guide.
Market now digs in for the US jobs report.
GVI Forex Jay 23:47:49 GMT - 01/06/2011
Check out the 5 minute eur/usd chart and how the gentle sloping line has been capping the upside. I did not post it earlier due to the gentle slope of the line but it worked just before against the 1.3007 high and something to keep an eye on.
Chicago sc 16:33:56 GMT - 01/06/2011
If we get there, would sub-1.30 be a good level to fade the EURUSD slide (buy EURUSD)? I'm thinking 1.2993 to 1.2998 with a stop below 1.2980?
GVI Forex Jay 12:32:16 GMT - 01/06/2011
12:30 GMT (Global-View.com) January 5 - The forex market is still feeling the effects of yesterday’s surprise increase (by its magnitude) in the monthly ADP employment survey, which in turn has raised forecasts for Friday’s release of US December Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This suggests some risk of a disappointment if NFP comes in below raised forecasts but in the meantime the dollar should maintain a firmer bias ahead of the report. The dollar, meanwhile, is performing technically, with the break of 1.32 yesterday seeing it trade to just above a key cluster of supports (as also posted yesterday) in the eur/usd 1.3050-00 range (see below). This is potentially a formidable area of support and puts the market at a crossroads. A firm break of 1.3056 would expose the pivotal 1.30 level + the major 1.2968 low set on Nov 30, 2010 while a failure would maintain the current range.
On the upside, 1.32 (also the daily pivot) is the pivotal level and suggests a limited upside + SOB (“Sell On Blips”) bias while below it. Yesterday's low at 1.3127 is initial resistance and one that needs to hold to keep the focus on the cluster support.
Key levels on the downside (intra-day range 1.3090-1.3170):
1.3086 = 200 day mva
1.3085 = Dec 29 high
1.3083 = daily trendline
1.3076 = S1
1.3073 = Dec 27 low
1.3056 = Key Dec 23 low
1.3002 = S2
GVI Forex Jay 18:00:45 GMT - 01/05/2011
High just now was 1.3191 before being beaten back.
GVI Forex Jay 17:44 GMT January 5, 2011
Tech Talk: Reply
High just now was 1.3186 but still has a bid. Market is not sure what theme to trade on. Typical of week one in a new year.
GVI Forex Jay 16:56 GMT January 5, 2011
Tech Talk: Reply
EUR/USD 1.3168, 83 and 88 block a return to 1.32.
GVI Forex Jay 14:57:47 GMT - 01/05/2011
As noted 1.3127 = S2 (vs, 1.3133 lo
As also noted, key supports are below 1.31
Next up is the ISM Services PMI - watch the employment component
We will be offering two affordable live newswire services - if you are interested in more info, send me an EMAIL
GVI Forex Jay 14:26:51 GMT - 01/05/2011
USD/JPY broke its tight daily trendline (82.46). Little on the upside between 83.-84 so focus will be on closes vs
83.03 = 20 day mva (red line)
83.19 = 100 day mva (green line)
High so far 83.23
GVI Forex Jay 12:29:47 GMT - 01/05/2011
12:30 GMT (Global-View.com) January 5 - What a difference a day makes! At this time yesterday the EUR/USD was running buy stops in a failed attempt to expose 1.35. Today the downside is being tested as the market extends yesterday’s weaker close in a typical start of the year whipsaw. The pair has performed technically with the break of 1.3251 (Monday’s low) exposing the pivotal 1.32 level (intra-day low 1.3210). As the accompanying daily chart shows, a close below the 20 day mva (1.3221 = red line) would leave a void until key levels in the 1.30s. In any case, the 1.3200 level is pivotal and limits the downside while intact while the pair trades soft (i.e. negative bias) while below 1.3250, creating the current stalemate. Above 1.3250 would cool the risk.
On the downside:
- 1.3221 = 20 day mva (focus on the close vs. this level)
- 1.3200 = 61.8% of 1.3056-1.3433
- 1.3189 = S1 and 1.3127 = S2 => see FX Chart Points
- 1.3088 = 200 day mva and daily trendline
- 1.3085 = Dec 29 low
- 1.3073 = Dec 27 low
- 1.3056 = key Dec 23 low
Feel free to comment.
GVI Forex Jay 18:47:41 GMT - 01/04/2011
For those who have not read our newsletters, Tornbridge Al wrote a second article on using pivot points in this month's issue. If you want to see a copy, send me an EMAIL
They don't work all the time but enough times to pay notice.
GVI Forex Jay 15:47:44 GMT - 01/04/2011
I posted this on GVI Forex as a similar comment made by me last night.
GVI Forex Jay 15:07 GMT January 4, 2011
Tech Talk: Reply
A bit hairy and can't say I caught it but selling above the 100 day mva (1.3375) worked again.
GVI Forex Jay 14:48:02 GMT - 01/04/2011
eur/chf high was 1.2683 vs.1.2698 key res cited earlier. Note stocks turning mixed.
GVI Forex Jay 12:30:58 GMT - 01/04/2011
12:30 GMT (Global-View.com) January 4 – I noted yesterday that the start of the year market is often littered with landmines and that has been the case today. This has seen currencies such as the aud, jpy and chf sell off while offsets boosted the eur/usd and gbp/usd, leaving the dollar caught in the middle as positions taken into the close of the year unwound. This has seen some significant moves but damage has not been fatal (note 20 day mvas on our FX Chart Points ). As for the eur/usd, it came close but did not test last week’s high at 1.3424 (high 1.3416). To maintain a bid, it would need to hold above 1.3375 = 100 day mva, which acted as resistance until the early European session move above it. Only above 1.35 though would alter a view that this is the top of the current range. With that said, I don’t usually place too much significance to start of the year moves but they cannot be ignored as they can force a technical response.
See below for key cross levels:
eur/jpy:
110 sets the bias
109.86 = 20 day mva
111.94 and 112.22 are key resistance
eur/chf:
1.2698 = Dec 27 high
1.2709 = 20 day mva
GVI Forex Jay 13:05:04 GMT - 01/03/2011
13:00 GMT (Global-View.com) January 3 - The first year of the New Year is often one strewn with landmines in the form of false moves and whipsaws as the market starts the slow process of restoring liquidity. On Monday, the dollar is trading mixed to a touch firmer as many centers are still closed so the price action has to be taken with a grain of salt. The EURUSD has traded technically with the low at 1.3250 pausing above 1.3240 = 50% of 1.3056-1.3424 in week where fundamental factors will be a focus. Specifically, the key focus will be on the U.S. employment report on Friday and logic suggests the dollar should find support ahead of it although its weak close for the year means it has some technical obstacles to overcome for the market to start trading on a firmer growth-firmer dollar theme
As posted earlier:
Low so far 1.3250
FIBOS
On the downside (1.3056-1.3424)
1.3240 = 50%
1.3197 = 61.8%
On the upside (1.3424-1.3250):
1.3316 = 38.2% - broken
1.3337 = 50% - broken
1.3358 = 61.8%
GVI Forex Jay 00:28:51 GMT - 01/03/2011
No change to this view posted on Friday:
Looking ahead, it remains to be seen whether this was just seasonal pressures on the dollar and a market looking for cover before yearend or some shift in market dynamic so will let the charts decide aa 2011 market themes develop. As for the EURUSD, it is testing above its 100 day mva (1.3365) but is within its existing range as long as it stays below 1.3498 (see chart). Expect the first few days of the New Year to be choppy but logic suggests the dollar should find support ahead of the key December employment report next Friday.
GVI Forex Jay 11:31:26 GMT - 12/31/2010
11:31 GMT (Global-View.com) Dec 31 - I learned many years ago not to fight the charts and this week has been an example of how the technicals can confound the fundamentals. The EURUSD headed into this last week of the year with forecasts lined up towards weakness into 2011. However repeated failures to establish below the 200 mva despite repeated tests below thwarted a run at 1.30 and left those short vulnerable to an end of the year squeeze. Weak EURO crosses, most notably vs. the CHF, JPY, AUD were signs of EURO weakness but some of this was offset by a weak GBP, which fell sharply on its crosses, including vs the EURO this week while trading mixed vs. the USD.
Looking ahead, it remains to be seen whether this was just seasonal pressures on the dollar and a market looking for cover before yearend or some shift in market dynamic so will let the charts decide aa 2011 market themes develop. As for the EURUSD, it is testing above its 100 day mva (1.3365) but is within its existing range as long as it stays below 1.3498 (see chart). Expect the first few days of the New Year to be choppy but logic suggests the dollar should find support ahead of the key December employment report next Friday.
Mtl JP 11:45:51 GMT - 12/30/2010
Jay 10:33 - your observation that "the dollar is still feeling some of the effects of yesterday’s mid-day swoon after a well received 7-year auction saw bond yields fall sharply. The sensitivity to bond yields suggests the dollar is being treated cautiously with longer-term deficit concerns leading to a search elsewhere for alternatives" is very noteworthy.
Rates and rate differentials still a major market driver.
hillegom purk 10:43:34 GMT - 12/30/2010
Well thin markets go for super surprises. we can have the yawn scenario, that implies 13344 or so as high.
Supersurprise is low 13089.
Lets see. Either way, i am going to trade and will post. Now out for end of the year shopping.
GVI Forex Jay 10:33:46 GMT - 12/30/2010
I read a report that referred to the Swiss franc as being the new Deutschemark, which means it is being treated as a haven of stability in a world filled with uncertainties. In this case that means Eurozone sovereign debt concerns and a fear in some corners over the future of the euro. Under normal circumstances the dollar would be the safe haven, especially with an optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in 2011 and rising bond yields. Regarding the latter, the dollar is still feeling some of the effects of yesterday’s mid-day swoon after a well received 7-year auction saw bond yields fall sharply. The sensitivity to bond yields suggests the dollar is being treated cautiously with longer-term deficit concerns leading to a search elsewhere for alternatives.
This has the dollar is on the defensive in the next to last trading day of the year but it still seems to be more of a euro market than a dollar market as those trading look for cover. This can be seen in the EURCHF, which has fallen to another record low (1.2393), pulling USDCHF to a new record low (.9372) as well. USDJPY has extended its recent low as well (81.28) but remains above its key Nov 1 low at 80.25 and its record 79.75 low set in 1995.
As for the EURUSD, it seems set to break its 8 day pattern of sub-1.31 tests (sub-200 day mva tested on most of those days as well) but would need to get above Tuesday’s 1.3274 high to suggest more legs to this end of year retracement attempt. Levels to watch on the downside include 1.3219 = 20 day mva although 1.32 is most important in setting its bias. On the upside,
1.3274 = Tuesday’s high
1.3277 = 50% of 1.3498-1.3056
1.3329 = 61.8%
1.3358 = key Dec 17 high
1.3361 = 100 day mva
Thin markets make it hard to make a call and much depends on whether there are stops to run. EURUSD range so far 1.3215-1.3259
GVI Forex Jay 11:49:24 GMT - 12/29/2010
What caught my eye walking in is the eur/usd high at 1.3156 = 38.2% of 1.3274-1.3083. This suggests technicals are a factor even in this holiday thinned market.
On the other side, sub-1.31 traded for the 8th day in a row (only two closes below it) as well as the 200 day mva (1.3091) tested yet again. This is producing a stalemate, suggesting 1.31 would need to become resistance to encourage a run at 1.30 and below. Weak euro crosses are pointing that way but currently being frustrated by a mixed market as the dollar is caught in the middle of these crosscurrents.
Intra-day range so far 1.3083-1.3156. Key supports are 1.3073 and 1.3056. On the upside, 1.3156 (38.2%), 1.3179 (50%) and 1.3201 (61.8%). Upside should be limited as long as 1.3156 holds.
GVI Forex Jay 14:44:29 GMT - 12/28/2010
It is cross trading 101. Once the other side finds support or resistance (e.g. usd/jpy, usd/chf), for the crosses to move lower (or higher as the case may be) the weaker (or stronger pair) has to move lower (higher).
Example currently is once the dollar found support in pairs like usd/jpy, usd/chf, etc, eur/usd weakness took over as euro crosses slipped.
I hope I am clear. If not ask for a clarification.
GVI Forex Jay 14:44:28 GMT - 12/28/2010
It is cross trading 101. Once the other side finds support or resistance (e.g. usd/jpy, usd/chf), for the crosses to move lower (or higher as the case may be) the weaker (or stronger pair as the case may be) has to move lower(higher).
Example currently is once the dollar found support in pairs like usd/jpy, usd/chf, etc, eur/usd weakness took over as euro crosses slipped.
I hope I am clear. If not ask for a clarification.
HK REVDAX 14:39:13 GMT - 12/28/2010
Jay//Today is a reversal day of both Euro and gold. Euro has reversed while gold has not. But there are still many hours before closing and gravity can set in at any time...
GVI Forex Jay 14:35:10 GMT - 12/28/2010
I noted the eur/usd lag and weaker euro crosses but must admit I didn't expect this quick a move back down. Shows the danger of trading a less liquid holiday market.
Support starts at yesterday's 1.3173 high - just tested
Also note the 50% level (posted earlier) helped cap the upside.
tokyo rana 13:30:22 GMT - 12/28/2010
sorry correction ihope my friend caribean Rafe also watching price action i said donot worry usdjpy will be back soon 80.00....happy trade,
tokyo rana 13:29:38 GMT - 12/28/2010
ihave my friend caribean Rafe also watching price action i said donot worry usdjpy will be back soon 80.00....happy trade,
tokyo rana 13:27:55 GMT - 12/28/2010
again i was only bullish on jpy......eurjpy gbpjpy usdjpy very close to yearly low as expected.....still ithink jpy pairs will go 2000/4000pips from current levels trust me or not....happy day,
GVI Forex Jay 13:24:31 GMT - 12/28/2010
Mailman, no news, just thin end of year markets. Note weaker euro crosses weighing on the eur/usd. It found support midway between 1.3180-00.
Lahore FM 13:12:44 GMT - 12/28/2010
Mialman,usdcad for me has a possible long in it but oil too high and threatening to go even higher so just watching for now.
Richland QC Mailman 13:09:26 GMT - 12/28/2010
GBP intraday supports at 1.5470 then 1.5430/35. Let us see.
Dubai SAS 13:00:48 GMT - 12/28/2010
mailman - Typical year end markets
Richland QC Mailman 12:59:53 GMT - 12/28/2010
thanks Revdax.
HK REVDAX 12:54:30 GMT - 12/28/2010
Mailman//u may see gold follows suit too ...
Richland QC Mailman 12:53:13 GMT - 12/28/2010
Euro has suddenly reversed... Any news?
Richland QC Mailman 12:49:58 GMT - 12/28/2010
HI FM. Are you following usd/cad? How would you size up building up longs from here. Multi-support levels (daily chart) holding so far.
Lahore FM 12:08:57 GMT - 12/28/2010
thanx SAS,yes gbpusd weekly lower bounds were generally in that region you mentioned.
one small retrace down to 0.8520 area still possible for eurgbp but we have turned higher for many more days to come.
gbpusd might lag some from eurgbp drag.
Dubai SAS 12:06:41 GMT - 12/28/2010
Lahore FM 12:03 GMT December 28, 2010
FM very nice work on the euro and the eur/gbp ... i was looking for gbp to test 1.5295 to buy some but it dint happen although we got close
Lahore FM 12:03:04 GMT - 12/28/2010
1.3500 not looking as distant as it was on friday.let us see!
GVI Forex Jay 11:55:01 GMT - 12/28/2010
High just now 1.3274
GVI Forex Jay 11:38:46 GMT - 12/28/2010
Trading has been surprisingly active during this last week of the year and this has seen the dollar come under selling pressure as stops were run vs. several pairs. If you look closely at the market, weak GBP crosses were driving some of the offset dollar selling elsewhere. In addition, EURUSD, after initially leading, is now lagging as its crosses turned soft as well (e.g. EURCHF is close to 1.25 after yesterday’s high at 1.2698). One exception is EURGBP, which is firmer and neutralizing some of the EUR cross selling elsewhere. If this sounds complicated, it is as the dollar, to an extent, is caught in the middle of these crosscurrents although it is trading weak.
Regarding the EURUSD, it took out stops above 1.32 and the 20 day mva (1.3208) but has so far run into resistance above 1.3250. The key area is around 1.3360 (1.3358 = Dec 17 high, 1.3361 = 100 day mva). Using FIBOS for 1.3498-1.3056
1.3277 = 50%
1.3329 = 61.8%
Given thin liquidity at this time of year, it is hard to draw conclusions from the price action although technical damage has been done. In the meantime, EURUSD finds support while above 1.32 but would need to establish above 1.3250 to put the levels posted above in play. Below 1.32 cools the risk. Note GBPUSD currently playing some catch-up.
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