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GVI Forex Jay  13:35:34 GMT - 01/14/2011  
Post-data high so far 1.3384

GVI Forex Jay  12:51:39 GMT - 01/14/2011  
eur/usd low was 1.3319, 1 pip above the 23.6% level posted below. Note yesterday's 1.3384 high is again acting as a resistance.

GVI Forex Jay  12:00:03 GMT - 01/14/2011  
12:00 GMT ( January 14 - A friend of mine once wrote a television pilot entitled “I Gave at the Office” and this week could have been called “I Gave to the Market” as a week long liquidating market squeezed euro shorts. Perhaps it was the time of the year where the market has thin pockets that contributed to this brutal start of the year whipsaw. Whatever the case, the price action has forced many to reassess what had looked like a clear path for 1.26 when the week started. With hindsight this is one of those weeks when the eur/usd low (or high as the case may be) was made early Monday and this often is a sign of a reversal move as the week winds on.

Technically eur/usd has traded an outside week with the overnight move above 1.3433 (high 1.3455) although it would need to close above this level to produce an outside week key reversal. Below 1.3433 cools the risk and unlike the rest of the week leaves little to go after on the upside unless a new high is made. Assuming 1.3455 stays in place, it would be the first time this week that a new high was not made during the US session.

On the downside, the sharp move up has left little in the way of key levels with one focus on yesterday’s 1.3384 high, which would need to become support to put the focus on 1.34+. On the downside:

1.3321 = intra-day low
1.3318 = 23.6% of 1.2875-1.3455
1.3307 = 50 day mva
1.3290 = daily trendline broken Thursday
1.3274 = daily pivot
1.3233 = 38.2%

Looking ahead, many will be glad this week is over and take a low profile ahead of a US 3 day holiday weekend to reassess and start afresh next week. As for the market, assuming euro buying has been driven by liquidations, keep an eye on euro crosses to see if the unwinding has finally run its course. On the downside, there should be some support on dips by those caught short and hoping for a move down to cover those positions but unlike the past few days, upticks will not bring in fresh buying unless 1.3455 is taken out. Only below the former trendline would put it back into its old trend.

nyc s  14:29:43 GMT - 01/13/2011  
Moot point now

nyc s  14:27:23 GMT - 01/13/2011  
Where do you guys show the eurusd trendline? There must be stops above it but there are differences among charting progrqawms.

GVI Forex Jay  13:36:44 GMT - 01/13/2011  

The 1.32-1.33 is void of chart levels other than the 1.3219 61.8% level.(broken)

Key levels are above 1.33

1.3307 = daily trendline
1.3321 = 50 day mva
1.3402 = 100 day mva
1.3433 = 2011 high

The 1.32 level dictates the tone from here. Hard to believe we are talking about 1.32 and levels above it.

Below 1.3170-00 is needed to cool the risk.

GVI Forex Jay  11:59:54 GMT - 01/13/2011  
12:00 GMT ( January 13 - Those who day trade sometimes lose sight of the overall picture and how the market is positioned longer-term. Take this week as an example where the euro started out by extending its low vs. the dollar but has since undergone a sharp retracement, led by unwinding of short euro crosses, most notably vs. the chf and jpy. We often refer to this as a liquidating market, which I characterized yesterday as follows:

This a liquidating market today and why you are seeing stops above the day high as shorts get stopped by the order flow. A characteristic of a liquidating market is a new high followed by backing and filling once the order is done.

There has been some follow through overnight as euro crosses extended gains, pushing eur/usd through some stops until hitting a wall at 1.3170, which is also the Jan 6 high so a double top while it holds. This sets the stage for the US session where euro crosses will again provide a clue as to whether it pushes on or pressures ease. As the levels posted below show, 1.3170-1.3220 is a potential resistance band. Should the bottom end hold then the 200 day mva could become an attraction.

On the upside:

1.3170 (intra-day high and a double top)
1.3195 = R1 (see FX Chart Points )
1.3200 = pivotal big figure
1.3219 = 61.8% of 2011 range (1.3433-1.2875)

On the downside:
1.3147 = 20 day mva (focus for the close)
1.3100 = 23.6% of 1.2875-1.3170
1.3088 = intra-day low
1.3079 = daily pivot
1.3074 = 200 day mva
1.3057 = 38.2% of 1.2875-1.3170

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