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dc CB  17:22:40 GMT - 01/28/2011  

dc CB  17:08:06 GMT - 01/28/2011  
with crude up over $3, gold and silver up large, the Canadian$ is holding up rather well, as during the US session it usually follows Stox. ...CD here, not USD/CAD.
Any pressure removed from Stox should release CD ot higher on oil.

GVI Forex Jay  17:03:53 GMT - 01/28/2011  
Notice how the tone changed once eur/usd broke below its 100 hour mva. This has turned into a liquidating run for the exits market today.

GVI Forex Jay  12:01:12 GMT - 01/28/2011  
12:00 GMT ( January 28 - The end of the week approaches with the eur/usd holding firm but battling to establish above the 1.37 level. This has seen some consolidation despite new highs this week and patterns develop that are worth noting as clues to what comes next:

- 13 out of last 14 daily closes have been higher. Thursday's close was 1.3737
- Higher high each day this week, inside day so far today. Thursday’s 1.3638-1.3759 range still intact.
- 1.37 has printed 4 days in a row including today- this level sets the tone going forwards

Chart Points:
- 100 day mva (green line) came close for the 2nd day but again checked the downside. This is a key indicator to watch on the downside and supports the upside while intact. Below it changes the picture. (see chart)
- On the upside, 1.3786 remains key resistance
- Currently, 1.3745 (also around 61.8% of 1.4282-1.2875, briefly broken yesterday) is acting as resistance

GVI Forex Jay  19:18:09 GMT - 01/27/2011  
After the first week of the year when the eur/usd closed lower each day, it has closed higher in 13 out of the past 14 days (including today).

GVI Forex Jay  15:40:16 GMT - 01/27/2011  
EUR/USD R2 = 1.3761 vs. 1.3757 high

See FX Chart Points

GVI Forex Jay  13:14:34 GMT - 01/27/2011  
Note the former EUR/USD daily trendline acting as a resistance. Click on chart to zoom in

GVI Forex Jay  13:08:22 GMT - 01/27/2011  
Market is seeking the path of least resistance and this has seen a crack open on the eur/jpy upside (see daily chart - click on it to zoom in). Momentum is positive but faces key resistance at:


A break of 115.66 would open a void on the upside.

GVI Forex Jay  12:01:43 GMT - 01/27/2011  
12:00 GMT ( January 27 - There is an old trading adage “to expect the unexpected” and this been the case today as the market was blindsided by S&P cutting Japan’s sovereign debt rating. This saw the jpy fall sharply, both vs. the dollar and on its crosses, usd/jpy spiking over 1 jpy higher to 83.21 but did not approach key resistance at 83.49-54. There was some chatter of Japanese exporters selling that helped cap the upside.

EUR/USD, meanwhile, looked set to consolidate after struggling earlier above 1.37 but has since spiked to a new high (1.3756). The catalyst was an inflation comment by ECB’s Bini Smaghi, which seemed innocuous to me but the way the market reacted is yet another confirmation that “it is not the news but the reaction to news that gives the clue.” In any case, eur/usd has extended its high to break 1.37445 (61.8% of 1.4282-1.2875). This has seen 1.3750+ trade, briefly so far, suggesting this level would need to be firmly broken to setup a test of the next key target at 1.3786 (Nov 22 high). Beyond 1.3786 it gets thin with pivotal big figures at 1.38, 1.40 and 1.42 standing in the way of the major level at 1.4282. On the downside, yesterday’s high at 1.3721 is pivotal support, risk is on 1.3786 while above it.

Note the 1 hour chart where the 100 hour mva I have been citing as a key indicator checking the downside at the low today.

GVI Forex Jay  14:57:03 GMT - 01/26/2011  
As I noted earlier, The intra-day low is 1.3656, suggesting 1.3650 is pivotal as well in keeping the focus on 1.37+.

Low so far 1.3653.

Mtl JP  12:17:09 GMT - 01/26/2011  
Jay - market pundits ignored China's help euro yik-yak. Now Euro sceptics and other euro predjudiced players got their panties jammed up their donkey-crack. Going forward key metric is how many of the "the dwindling bear camp" Euro shorters are still wiggling alive in the battlefield trenches after the last two-week attack on them to mount new and additional short plays.

The big players can sit back without aggressively pushing the euro further up as they enjoy the mayhem on the field and watch the shorts nursing their wounds.

GVI Forex Jay  11:58:34 GMT - 01/26/2011  
12:00 GMT ( January 26 -The eur/usd has extended its high to take out a rumored 1.3720 DNT option barrier but faces a potential tough zone at 1.37-1.38 even though there are only a few chart points worth noting in this region. These levels however, are significant at 1.37445 (61.8% of 1.4282-1.2875) and 1.3786 (key Nov 22 high). For the dwindling bear camp, the 61.8% level is significant in maintaining hope that the sharp rebound off 1.2875 is still a retracement. The 1.3786 level is significant as it protects the pivotal 1.38 level with a void of key levels above it until 1.40 and 1.4282. On the downside, there are no significant levels worth noting until sub-1.36 so keep an eye on 1.3685-1.3703 as above it would be needed to suggest a run at the 1.3721 intra-day high and the levels cited above. There is currently minor support at 1.3680. The intra-day low is 1.3656, suggesting 1.3650 is pivotal as well in keeping the focus on 1.37+.

GVI Forex john  10:25:27 GMT - 01/26/2011  
I hope whoever wrote that option was paid a lot. When I first saw it yesterday, it seemed like a lot of risk for an extended period on a fairly narrow band from its mid-point.

GVI Forex Jay  10:15:17 GMT - 01/26/2011  
Caba, good catch (you are sharper than I am this time of the moening), when I started the post the high was 1.3716. I show 1.3721 as the high now so mission accomplished to kick out that DNT barrier. The eur/usd closed at 1.3382 on Jan 18 when that option was put on.

philadelphia caba  10:12:45 GMT - 01/26/2011  
have already 1.3723 high on my platform

GVI Forex Jay  10:04:52 GMT - 01/26/2011  
I posted this yesterday morning on GVI Forex and the 1.3720 barrier is so far putting up a defense.

GVI Forex Jay 12:06 GMT January 25, 2011
A friend just sent me this and is worth noting:

There's a 1.2660-1.3720 DNT that was put on, on the 18th of January for a EUR 10 mio payout. It expires 18th april 2011.

GVI Forex Jay  14:25:00 GMT - 01/25/2011  
Euro seems more of a sideshow today but just bounced off 1.3617 again for an intra-day triple top. Odd level for resistance. Above it is resistance at 1.3628 and 1.3638. Below it keeps focus on supports at 1.3587, 1.3576, 1.3572 (day low). EUR/CHF still under pressure (low 1.2825).

GVI Forex Jay  11:59:21 GMT - 01/25/2011  
12:00 GMT ( January 25 - The market was thrown a curveball today as the initial focus on the first EFSF bond issue (euro positive) was replaced by a sell-off in GBP following the surprise contraction in 4Q10 GDP. This has seen the GBP fall sharply both vs. the dollar and on its crosses, GBP/USD testing its 100 day mva at 1.5756 (note green line on the daily chart). Low has so far been 1.5748. The 20 day mva is at 1.5696 and 50 day mva at 1.5681. See FX Chart Points

This has created a mixed picture for the dollar with lags in other pairs vs. the dollar out of weaker GBP crosses. This includes the EUR/USD, which retreated from a 2-day double top at 1.3686 but paused above yesterday’s 1.3540 low as a firmer eur/gbp has offset some of the impact of a weaker eur/chf and eur/jpy. This low would need to be taken out to shift the focus to 1.35. On the upside, only a break of 1.3686 would be significant.

GVI Forex Jay  15:29:48 GMT - 01/24/2011  
Expectations of a consolidation day were broken by the brief move to a new high. What hasn't changed is that 1.3650 remains pivotal as to whether focus is on 1.35 or 1.38. High was 1.3659.

GVI Forex john  13:37:38 GMT - 01/24/2011  
Interesting with 1.3500 an obvious psychological support that 1.3501 is the first support line based on the pivot point calculations

GVI Forex  john  13:30:25 GMT - 01/24/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
based on Friday ranges...
Res 3	1.3853	83.48	0.9774	1.6209	1.0064	1.0009
Res 2	1.3740	83.28	0.9732	1.6113	1.0026	0.9964
Res 1	1.3677	82.93	0.9658	1.6060	0.9984	0.9932

Pivot	1.3564	82.73	0.9616	1.5964	0.9946	0.9887

Sup 1	1.3501	82.38	0.9542	1.5911	0.9904	0.9855
Sup 2	1.3388	82.18	0.9500	1.5815	0.9866	0.9810
Sup 3	1.3325	81.83	0.9426	1.5762	0.9824	0.9778

GVI Forex Jay  13:27:33 GMT - 01/24/2011  
1.3550 (note the "50" level) proving pivotal.

GVI Forex Jay  12:08:01 GMT - 01/24/2011  
12:00 GMT ( January 24 - The price action to start the week suggests the euro unwind seen over the past two weeks may have finally run its course. If true then it will take fresh euro buying (watch its crosses) at these higher levels to propel the trend further. On the upside, as noted late Friday, 1.3650 is pivotal as to whether the market makes a run at 1.38 or the focus shifts to 1.35. So far, it is the latter. The intra-day high was 1.3648.

The sharp move up, meanwhile, has left little in the way of obvious support levels to focus on. This suggests 1.35 will be pivotal going forwards (S1 = 1.3501) although the “50” level (1.3550) intra-day will be important in keeping a bid. Below it would put 1.35 on the radar.

To put the price action in perspective, using 1.2875-1.3642, first retracement is below 1.35.

1.3466 = 23.6%
1.3353 = 38.2%
1.3262 = 50%
1.3170 = 61.8%

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