The outside contracts in the US 2yr note have transitioned to a slight sell bias overall finally but a bounce from current levels is fully conceivable. The nearby contracts are flat overall in the larger scheme after running up. It created a moderate overall sell bias for us last Friday. Preference going forward is selling runs uphill and the same for Euro as I’ve been noting since last week. See bids coming in today early, stocks are not done overall.
Doesn’t take the wizard of OZ to see it.
USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – KEY RESISTANCE CITED
USDCAD testing its upside but would need to get through 1.3690 (see chart) to confirm the low is in and suggest more scope on the upside.
TRxpect support as long as it trades above 1.3650 but price action is still within the current range.
Note the trade at the bottom of this chart was an earlier AT Alert.
The majority of transactions in EurJpy are taking place between 169.75 and 169.50. The sell side is dominant obviously, but it shouldn’t take much to see a bid take hold, especially in stocks, which affects Eur in general. Balance is at 169.65. Dow futures may be poised to try for 39950 despite the selling overnight.
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EURUSD 4h
Support at 1.08350 , 1.08150 & 1.08000
Resistance at 1.08550, 1.08650 & 1.08750
As expected yesterday, we have reached the support zone. Now watch 1.08350 and 1.08150 as possible launching pads for another attempt Up.
Pattern wise, this is a moment when we have to sit back and wait to see – both ways are possible – 50-50 chance.
If below 1.08150 it would open a way for bigger correction.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
While the inflation and interest rate world continues to throw up unpleasant surprises, it’s hard to imagine much of a shift in major indexes on Wednesday as Nvidia’s (.NVDA), opens new tab earnings drum roll builds through the session before a post-bell release.
In my USDCHF post (scroll below), I mentioned a 4-week high. It was not a random observation. The importance of the 4-week high or low is explained in the following:
USDX 4 HOUR CHART – PROXY FOR THE EURUSD?
With the EURUSD representing 57.6% of the US Dollar Index (USDX), this index can at times be used as a proxy for what is seen on a EURUSD chart.
In this USDX chart, momentum is trying to build to the upside that needs to take out 105.10 to indicate an end to this latest leg to the downside.
Re EURUSD, this was posted by Michael Caif yesterday
May 21, 2024 at 8:17 pm|
michael Calif
Option Profile now BEARISH Euro futures – any rallies should be sold
GVI 8:13
At 1.2728 GBP is now backed off 50% of reaction to earlier inflation stickiness.
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USDCHF 4 HOUR CHART – Underperformer but resistance looms
A tight range so far this week but USDCHF momentum is pointed up but faces layers of resistance until the .9224 high.
The significance of this level is it is a 4-week high, a break of which would be significant.
Expect support on dips as long as it stays above 9078
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GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.2726 to maintain the breakout.
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