Fed Holds Rates at 5.50%, Trims Down Projections to One From Three Cuts This Year
· Fed holds rates steady at 5.50%.
· Stocks rocket higher anyway.
· Fed officials mixed on rate cuts.
EURUSD 4h
Pair didn’t come even close to 1.09 and started retracing form the daily high .
Support at 1.08000, 1.07800 and 1.07400
Daily close below 1.08000 would be pretty bearish.
nas100 30 minute chart – another record
AS I HAVE BEEN NOTING THERE IS NIO REASON TO STAND IN FRONT OF THIS FREIGHT TRAIN UNTIL THERE IS A REASON TO DO SO.
For today, a top seems to be in but the highlight line needs to be broken to suggest more profit taking.
Note, using CFD feeds, I prefer to point out the patterns so you can see something similar on yoiur chart since levels can vary as price feeds can vary between brokers, even quoting the same symbols/
Here is a thought for retail participants trying their best to make money for their wives with the $1,000 they have. One of the better traders I ran across was a guy named Erik from Russia who traded out of a Tokyo based firm where we traded routinely from a San Francisco office together, physically.
He employed Elliot Waves and was quite successful at it. If you consider that large money often moves in tranches and through multiple “houses” then the capital hits markets in waves (if a firm is big enough that can be almost the only way they can do it). There is a philosophy to employing Elliot Waves but it is based on a real and reoccurring element that MUST be used by larger institutions. It also can help you not go cray cray trying to figure everything out especially after a series of losses. You just identify and execute accordingly. He definitely made money.
Bobby – 3:28
Bobby, thanks, refreshing to receive support from a good person and professional.
These competitions were either all by invite where I was flown to other cities, or remotely with real bankers from this and other countries. The guy from Great Western Bank in Los Angeles with no arm was exceptional and was not arrogant. Another long time icon from Lousiana ports who led the import growth there was immensely responsible in approach but with not flashy gains. Another from Tokyo was drunk on Sake half the time but funny and playful and really, really, really good when he felt like contributing, but he would only do so if he felt you are not an insulting jerk. The best was Ron Carr, CTA in New York. Great guy, former floor trader, ran firms, fortune 500, the works. Sent his wife flowers when he passed. We traded options and futures and spot every morning after that together on mutual accounts for years.
Every single one of them employed momentum with a keen understanding of key leveling but ONLY as a means to know where the edge of the water likely is (alligators in there).
Monedge, not only that I fully concur , but I LOVE what you wrote!
There is only one little problem ( talking from own experience in exchanging views with different people) – most of the retail players won’t understand what you are all about and those that will understand can have a truly opposite view.
Since it is pre-Fed why not discuss approaches a little.
The benefits of momentum positioning are solid on days like this. Picking levels can be either a fun challenge or a maddening puzzle, depending on the result. Ultimately even with momentum positioning you are picking prices. One of the key differences is momentum trading doesn’t execute until the market actually does what is necessary to result in momentum. Which is 100% proof of market conviction. What constitutes valid momentum? Distance or velocity? A bit of both. The problem to solve is the ebb and flow of momentum, which can be deceiving as momentum can wane, thus causing one/one’s system to interpret that as a reversal, when it is just a pause, or indeed a reversal. Determining which is vital. Viewing UsdJpy it appears to be bottoming at present. Is it really? What does a group of large institutions in the background working together to game the market think? They are what matters, they make the market. And they include sovereign sources just as much as banks and the like. Knowing what/when/where NOT WHY is what matters. Your opinions may not match there’s.
So how do you determine what those market makers are planning right now? Do you know in your bones it is a grand conspiracy for “The Great Reset” as some with almost zero true knowledge or understanding (primarily Millenials and Genz) think? Or is it that you are a wizard who figured it out on your own?
Or is it a safer bet to simply trade the market’s momentum?
I had a real competition, in a real office, with real CTA’s and bankers in attendance one day (there were more than just one day) and a myriad of “styles” went at it in friendly competition. The top and bottom pickers came out on the losing end of that ball game as well as the level pickers. Was I successful picking levels? You bet. Was I successful with the momentum? You bet. The level picking was the most eye catching and impressive. Until it is clear you really are guessing. The participation in options and futures contracts every guru likes to claim as their key to knowledge can change swiftly and is disguised. Extensively.
Sometimes it pays to simply trade momentum. It can be learned.
BTC 4 HOUR CHART – 70K IS BACK ON THE RADAR
As I have noited, I prefer to look at pivotal levels and patterns on BTC charts rather than specific levels.
In this regard, 70K is clearly the level to watch as firmly above it would put the record 73K+_ high in play again.
Also note the two red Amazing Trader lines drawn off the low forming an AT Directional Indicator, which indicates a potential change in diredtional risk and you scan see what happened afterward.
ACT 1 being over now ahead of ACT II namely Powell’s presser and the odds of his theme of patience with the Fed (the old and still current “higher for longer” theme) being on right track in its quest to what it calls “price stability” – namely inflation at 2% rate.
March dot plot had three rate cuts in it. Earlier today players had expected a shift to two cuts. Less than two cuts … would now likely make the DLR fly.
For the DLRx to regain buyers Powell will be needing to preach a hawkish message.
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – MARKETS MOVE WHEN THERE IS A SURPRISE
I could post any chart and they would all look similar, straight line down for the dollar after CPI
I am posting a EURUSD chart to show how the AT DIREDTIONAL iNDICATOR SENT AN ALERT OF A POTENTIAL CHANGE IN DIREDTIONAL RISK WELL IN ADVANCE (SCROLL BELOW)
HERE IS A LEVEL TO WATCH IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY KEY NEARBY RESISTANCE
1.0828 = 61.8% OF 1.0895-1.0720 — DOUBT IF IT HOLDS
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