US500 DAILY CHART – IS THE HIGH IN?
Commodity currencies were signaling risk off and US stocks finally paid notice.
‘
‘Going strictly by the charts, the high is likely in for now (unless 5773 is taken out) and 5672 support needs to hold or risk the downside picking up steam.
So choice seems to be consolidation (above 5672) or retracement (below 5672).
If flows in Yen futures remain somewhat customary 6900 should be seen, for those of you who can only see spot that translates to the bottom of the current 100 point range for UsdJpy and others. AudJpy should see 100.00 and 99.50 perhaps.
OEX becomes extended around 2770 which would translate to S&P buyers running out of steam.
Put to Call ratio in Dow is at 0.54 and should stall around 52 which means the puts will be bought again (selling for stocks).
USDCAD DAILY CHART
From our Weekly FX Chart Outlook
Trying to build some upward momentum but would need to move above the 100 and 200 day mvas plus 1.3647 to suggest this is turning into an uptrend.
Downside should be limited on any deep dip as long as it stays above 1.35.
There is a bit of buy side activity in Dow but it is not widespread.
Clearly this is a risk off start to the week. It started immediately with the Asian open and never changed. Significant developments will be needed to turn that around.
I find it interesting that some media are giddy over last week’s US jobs numbers. They seem to have forgotten in a week’s time the last revision was almost a million job losses off and on the negative side. I have absolute ZERO faith in ANY numbers that come out of this US administration or its offshoots. Might as well believe Al Capone, at least he was a good liar not a bad one.
The only thing that increasingly counts in markets is how the flows are going because the economic numbers are tremendously unreliable.
GBPUSD DAILY CHART – 1.30 ON THE RADAR?
(Note EURGBP extending its intra-day high- scroll below to see EURGBP updates and keep an eye on this cross)
Given the void to 1.30 look for 1.3050 to be pivotal as to whether there will be a run at that level… low so far 1.3059
From our Weekly FX Chart Outlook
GBPUSD lagged EURUSD to close the week as EURGBP retreated so watch this cross of trading GBPUSD and EURUSD.
GBPUSD now dependent of 1.30 holding to stem the down move with key mvas lying below it.
On the upside, key level is not until 1.3305 so expect a limited upside unless 1.32+ is renewed.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
With any thought of U.S. recession off the agenda after a monster September jobs report, doubts about the extent of further Federal Reserve easing have inevitably re-emerged – and now need a cool inflation report this week to keep in check.
Any which way you cut it, last month’s employment report was a robust reading of a labor market in rude health. With payroll gains of 254,000 – more than 100,000 above forecast – a decline in the jobless rate to 4.1% and a pickup in annual wage growth to 4%.
Morning Bid: Monster payrolls see 10-year Treasury yields top 4%
With EURUSD key support around 1.0950, it is time to revisit this popular article in our blog
EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – Power of 50
Coincidentally or not key EURUSD support is around the pivotal “50” level… low so far 1.0951
From our Weekly FX Chart Outlook
EURUSD WILL STAY ON THE DFENSIVE AS LONG AS IT TRADES BELOW 1.10
To accelerate the move to the downside, and expose 1.0880, 1.0949 would need to be firmly broken.
Note the 100 and 200 day moving averages (mvas)… potential targets if further momentum builds to the downside.
USDJPY DAILY CHART – JPY IS THE ONLY CURRENCY UP TODAY VS THE USD
From our Weekly FX Chart Outlook
The break of 147.20 exposes 149.37 with potential for 150 if this level is broken.
On the downside, keeps a strong bid if it stays above 148 with scaled down bids as long as it trades above 147.20.
Key area is above 150, (50% = 150.75) and 200 day mva (around 151.00)
It’s Monday – quick summary
Israel-Hezbollah heating up
US Stocks turn down..
Dollar up a touch except vs JPY
USDJPY paused below 149.37 and is down sharply but still above 148
EUEUSD came within a hair of testing 1.0049, stays on the defensive as long as it stays below 1.10
Gold so far not benefiting from geopolitical risks… continues to pivot 2650… see update below
© 2024 Global View