[Belgrade Bobby]

I was accused by some of being too quick to declare The Third World War.

I still have the same feeling / opinion on the situation at hands…

Read it again – https://www.global-view.com/trading-in-war-conditions-middle-east-boiling/

Haven’t called for the WW3 – yet….

[Belgrade Bobby]

Knez…don’t you laugh…it is Friday 😀 I need some relaxation

[Belgrade Knez]

April 19, 2024 at 11:08 am
Belgrade Bobby

LOL 😂

[SF Monedge]

On gold I have a very hard time believing futures will get under 2385/90 and hold today.  That is an easy buy.  Dxy should easily hold 106 one would think.  See Sterling holding the upside around 2450.

[Belgrade Bobby]

What Data ??? Look at the Economic Calendar first…you schmuck

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h Intraday

Supports at 1.06100 & 1.05900

Resistances at 1.06700, 1.06950 & 1.07400

Prefer the Downside right now, but watch for the Data today – Economic Calendar

[SF Monedge]

Just an observation and not to be cute == because I sold both UsdJpy and UsdChf an hour before the sessions started and was in the thick of battle all the way down to the lows in both – the rebounds in price were aggressive and seemed like plunge protection team and CTA momentum algo’s both at work.  I’ve been around it before.

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD 30 MINUTE CHART –

This chart is similar to what was seen in other markets after the knee jerk safe haven reaction did not follow through.

No new ground was broken on the upside (the record high is still 2431) and for today, there should be no stops until the high of the day, leaving XAUUSD floundering with supports shown on the chart bunched between 2354 and 2373.,

[SF Monedge]

Yen futures are near the absolute lows tested several times this week.  It would be a stretch in my opinion to justify the concept of the price to go lower under current conditions (Asian central banks verbally drawing boundary lines in the strength of their currencies-widespread volatility-geopolitical)  so the futures sustaining a bid (sell side of Usd/Jpy) is clearly dominant.  So we have highly likely seen the highs of the day in Usd/Jpy and Usd/Chf over the prior 6 hours (4am PST right now).  Buy side of oil and gold obviously.  Usd/Chf sell side.  Usd buy side elsewhere.  I’ve been on the sell side since Asia in both pairs as I mentioned for two weeks.  See zero reason to change that right now.

[GVI Forex]

AS WE HAVE SEEN TODAY, TRADING IN A GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS MARKET CAN BE CHALLENGING.

IN THIS REGARD, GIVEN TODAY’S EVENTS, WE HAVE UPDATED OUR BLOG POST, TRADING IN A GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS, WITH AN ADDENDUM THAT IS WORTH READING

.
TRADING IN A GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS

[GVI Forex]

The Reuters headline explains the price action

Tehran plays down Israeli attacks, signals no further retaliation

[Mtl JP]

IF this THEN that
–
Reuters
Fed’s Bostic: open to a rate hike if inflation progress stalls
— Bostic on Thursday

[Mtl JP]

trumpets cnbc f/page
–
White House will ‘make sure gas prices remain affordable’ heading into summer, Biden advisor says

and who might the Biden advisor be asks curious george

would you have guessed Lael Brainard ?

[Mtl JP]

1:45 Monedge // The belligerents appear to be tactically playing to their internal political ego – “Iranian air base reportedly attacked in ‘limited’ Israeli reprisal strike and a look at me how meek and ginger I am “Iran downplays apparent retaliation and Israel keeps mum in sign both sides are looking to climb back from brink of war following international pressure for restraint” (timesofisreal) for international propaganda posturing purposes while the leader of the indisdensible nation and most powerful military pipsqueeks that “The US was given advance notification Thursday of an intended Israeli strike in the coming days, but did not endorse the response, a second senior US official said.” (cnn) trying to plead innocence.

In the meantime MY price of a liter of gasoline went up from $1.65 to 1.9x overnite. I have not yet looked at some of my energy digging and distribution stocks.

Odds of escalation appear – to me – low atm, as even published records out of Iran seem to highlight its heroic and defense and that the attacker did not go after cenrifuges at nuclear installation (al j)

[GVI Forex]

Waking up to a head spinning night.

Not a good one if you got stopped (with slippage) only to see a moves back the other way.

In any case enough event risk over the weekend to make this a defensive Friday with the deck cleared of risk off stops until the overnight news driven spike lows.

[GVI Forex]

Waking up to a head spinning night.

Not a good one if you got stopped (with slippage) only to see a moves back the other way.

In any case enough event risk over the weekend to make this a defensive Friday.

Will look at charts in a bit.

[SF Monedge]

Tonights military stikes against Iran and other countries is causing a high degree of volatility across the Usd, Gold, Oil, Treasuries, Stocks et al.  This could strongly affect the macro picture across the board over time.  It could even cause alternate items such as bitcoin.  Commodities as well.  Depending on severity.

[GVI Forex]

AUDUSD 4 HOIR CHART – MODEST RETRACEMENT

2 RED aT LINES DRAWN OFF THE LOW SIGNALED A CGNAGE IN DIRECTIONAL RISK AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY A MODEST RETRACEMENT.

kEY LEVELS ARE AT .6388 AND .6493

WHAT AT SAYS:

FOR,6456 TO BECOME THE KEY RESISTANCE LEVEL, THERE WOULD NEED TO BE A KEY LOW.

TO SUGGEST A BIGGER RETRACMENT.A THIRD AT RED LINE WOULD NEED TO BE FORMED FOLLOWED BY A .6456 BREAK.

BOTTOM LINE, THE TREND IS STILL YOUR FRIEND UNLESS .6456 IS BROKEN.

[GVI Forex]

April 19 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asian markets will hope to end a bruising week on a positive note on Friday, but fraying global sentiment and a reluctance to take on much risk ahead of the weekend amid persistent Middle East tensions could limit any upside.

Morning Bid: Jitters heighten, financial conditions tighten

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – HOW I LOOK AT THIS CHART

The lines on my charts are drawn automatically in real-time using the Amazing Trader charting algo

On this chart, the three descending blue (ladder) lines indicate risk to the downside.

The strategy says if putting on a trade, sell with a stop above the most recent blue ladder line that preceded a new low.

Risk stays on the downside as long as the most recent nue line that preceded a new low stays intact.

Vice versa for red lines when risk is on the upside.

[Author]

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