US CPI (TUE): The rate of headline CPI is expected to rise +0.4% M/M in February (prev. +0.3%), while the core rate of inflation is expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.4%). Traders upped hawkish bets on the expected path for policy rates following January’s pick-up in CPI and will look to the February data to help refine expectations of when the Fed is likely to cut rates. Currently, the market has discounted the prospects of three rate cuts this year and assigns a decent probability of a fourth. Policymakers have been looking through a single months’ data, and are focussed on recent trend rates; in January, the rate of 3-month annualised core CPI rose to 3.9% (from 3.3%), while the 6-month annualised rate rose to 3.5% (from 3.2%).
Fed Chair Powell this week told lawmakers that while inflation remains above 2%, it has eased substantially of late. Still, Powell stated that it would not be appropriate to reduce the policy rate until policymakers had greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably towards 2%, adding that they were not looking for inflation to move all the way down to 2%, instead, the sustainability of the move was more important in assessing the outlook. He also said that the Fed was not looking for ‘better’ inflation readings than we have had recently, but was looking for more of what we have seen.
Source: Newsquawk.com
USDJPY 30 MIN CHART – Correcting but still below the latest breakdown level
A failure to decisively break below 146.50 leaves the range to 148. On the other side, only 148+ would deflect risk on the downside.
As I noted, 147.61 was a breakdown level so the one blocking a shift in risk back to 148. So far the rebound has paused just below it.
Intra-day levels are in the chart.
NOTE
USDJPY bounced after BoJ Gov Ueda, testifying, gave no hint of a rate hike at next week’s meeting. He said we will see what data shows later in the week.
If trading USDJPY, do it intra-day as one off-hand comment overnight can send this pair up or down as market awaits next week’s BoJ decision.
US CPI next on deck.
GBPUSD 4 HOUR Chart
As noted yesterday, 1.28 is the only level to watch as it will dictate whether GBPUSD corrects further. Note the 2 blue AT lines whuch indicate a potential change in direction that played out.
This chart shows little until 1.2722 so expect the 1.2750-80 zone to be a key one as only a break below the lower end would shift thf focus from 1.28
NOTE
UK labor report showed a slight moderation
EURGBP bounce gave a clue to GBPUSD vulnerable downside
Bew ball game after US CPI later on
USDCHF Analysis: Breakdown Below Support Level and Price Channel Dynamics
USDCHF has recently breached the support level at 0.8742 and remains within a descending price channel on the 4-hour chart.
While the price remains within this channel, there is potential for a further downward movement in the upcoming days, with the next target area likely around 0.8700.
A critical resistance level to watch is situated at 0.8794. A successful breakout above this level would suggest that the downward movement from 0.8892 may have concluded at 0.8729, potentially paving the way for another upward move towards 0.8900.
AudCad is targeting 8930/40 area to see what is there. If it fails it will dump straight to8890. On the buy side from 8808 and riding locked in. In activity like this it likely fails if it gets up there without solid supporting conditions including fundamentals. Nobody else is posting and Monedge is very active so why not. If you are new to this, some of us currency traders are very active.
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