[Mtl JP]

GVI 10:20 the next posipis will come from correctly assessing and betting on fading or not of rate cut optimism

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD 15 MIN CHART

It is only a 20 pip range so far, too tight to last. Price action is typical for the start of a quarter, especially this one after a 4 day weekend, as the market re-liquifies.

As the chart shows, 2 red AT lines drawn off the low indicate a shift in risk to the upside that has seen a move up but faces resistance at 1.0744.

Not seen on this chart, the gap in price after the ISM report yesterday is to 1.0772. The key target on the downside remains at 1.0694.

Note while steadying vs the dollar, EUR is trading soft on some of its crosses (e.g. eurgbp, eurcad)

[Mtl JP]

USDCHF 9085
–
Frank think it has more breath ? TIA

[GVI Forex]

It feels more like the start of a new year than the start of the second quarter.

The key focus will be on US data and how the bond market reacts.

Powell speaks tomorrow.

USDJPY remains in a 151-152 range, betterment bid in the upper half. I read that any intervention should it occur would target a 5 yen drop. I also read that the effects of intervention would be short-lived.

EURUSD stays soft but tight range, suggests a cautious approach awaiting key data from mid-week on

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD targeting 1.0694 if it stays below 1.0750-72

[GVI Forex]

Economic calendar

TUE: RBA Minutes (Mar), CNB Minutes (Mar), South Korean CPI (Mar), EZ/UK Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar), German Prelim CPI (Mar), US Non-Durable Goods R (Feb), Chilean Central Bank Announcement

See full detailed previews

[SF Monedge]

Looking for 8850 at least in AudCad, reversed Eur earlier for a push.  Chf is dominant today.  Holding sell side UsdJpy for now.

[SF Monedge]

Thank you Bobby.  Quite possible and see that.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY – Monedge, if 151.500 holds, we’ll have next leg Up

[SF Monedge]

Already short UsdJpy multiple times and once again.

[GVI Forex]

USD 4 HOUR CHART – INTERVENTION THREAT LOOMS BUT…

USDJPY remains within 151-152 with the market wary of pushing the top side too hard.

However, given the overall USD strength and the pop in bond yields, any intervention would likely prove short-lived unless it continues in a sustained way.

With that said, traders will be wary as they do not want to get caught in the first wave should there be intervention.

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – It’s the reaction to news that matters

USD up across the board after a stronger ISM PMI report

GBPUSD has layers of old support below the market but the key level is around 1.25.

Down trend is in force as long as the trendline holds.

[Swiss Frank]

I think there’s two levels to be aware of wrt eur/usd forming a base. The first is nearby around 1.0725-1.0690….

The second is lower down around 1.0550.

Both would form a right shoulder for an inverted S-H-S if things are destined to play out that way.

Personally I think there’s enough divergence and other stuff going on that would say it doesn’t. But one never knows….

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.741

–

FWIW I see down gap from 1.0772ish

[SF Monedge]

Against the grain high risk, testing short UsdChf here at 9050 and buy side of AudCad.  Very light with very tight stops, not for the squeemish.  If it sticks the R/R is very good.  If not, it would be clear today sets the tone for the quarter with Usd strength.  Proper trade is long Usd from Asia.  If it doesn’t stick, the trade is long Usd until the cows come home.

[GVI Forex]

Big miss on the ISM PMI upside (above 50). Yields upo. USD up.

See our economic calendar

[GVI Forex]

US yields are opening higher (10 year +8.1bps at 4.2750%

[SF Monedge]

Dow futures have drifted lower overnight but there is limited liquidity below current price.  It is showing in Usd as it is holding, which is consistent.  It is my experience it would require something significant for futures to move down further much, so the potential for futures to hold and Eur to catch a bid are present.  Quite risky though, a Warren Buffet buy when they are selling trade if you have the courage.  Prefer to see the open in stocks and the data on this Monday out of responsibility.

[Mtl JP]

On deck:
–
Release: Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations – srce: BoC

10:30 (ET)
The Business Outlook Survey is a summary of interviews conducted by the Bank’s regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada’s gross domestic product. The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Amanda Cooper.

Today marks the start of a new week, a new month, a new quarter and a new set of data to get investors going. Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index landed when most markets were closed, making this the first real chance to digest the numbers.

Morning Bid: Manufacturing kicks off jobs-packed week

[Author]

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