[SF Monedge]

Barring something impressive, do not see 10yr note above 111 today or tomorrow at this point, yield has legs.

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART

XAUUSD continues to break THROUGH resistance (blue AT lines) and is currently trying for a firm break of 2088.

Above 2088 would leave the major 2135 level as the next target.

Expect support on dips while above 2065.

[SF Monedge]

Re: Usd/Chf – I posted in Asia last night I expected UsdChf to be contained through Monday between 8810 and 8870.  A bit wide, not every day is like that.  Something substantial would be required to alter that range.  Filled long at 8810, took the money at 8850 and now flat.  Bias is clearly Usd strength and unless something profound takes place, pre-US close I don’t see the range changing through Tuesday so far.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Depending on the next 30 min, we should see the following :

If closes above 1.08450 – preferably 1.08500 we might see another attempt to Up

If bellow, more of the same – nothing , yet

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD risk is 1.07250 on the lower side and 1.09350 on the upper side….for now

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.80 new week and puppy is down-ish again
elsewise everyone is in range , sofar.

Boring data days until powell’s yik-yaks on wed & Thu and then …
and then Fr’s NFP

Inbetween ECB will entertain with their decision on Th

Looks like dlr’s upside is rather limited which raises the Qtn how about the downside, what is the risk there

[GVI Forex]

USDCHF 1-Hour Chart

USDCHF consolidating between .8800-500, broader .88-.89

Meanwhile, the bounce from just above .88 has comes close to an initial target at .8848

Low expectations day although a firm break of .8848-60 would out .8893 in play again/.

[Belgrade Bobby]

I clearly remember 1996, when CHF was the total underdog – USD was getting stronger by the day  ( Strong Dollar mantra of the time ) , and it was very easy to Sell the CHF…on any pull back…but last decades it changed….is it coming back…the mantra ?

[Swiss Frank]

My understanding is 1. They care more about eur/chf and 2. Do not underestimate the significance of Jordan, who was always an advocate of a strong chf in the fight against inflation, stepping down….

[GVI Forex]

Thanks for this post by SF Monege. I just saw it on cable news so it is getting attention.

The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days,” Michael Hartnett, chief strategist of Bank of America, wrote in a note to clients seen by CNBC, adding it’s “little wonder ‘debt debasement’ trades closing in on all-time highs, i.e. gold [at] $2077/oz.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Seems to me that the main question is : What is that SNB wants….do they care about USD or EUR…or better to say – which one do they care more…

[Mtl JP]

Nikkei , March 2, 2024
Odds rise that Japan will lift negative interest rates in March
BOJ Gov. Ueda says outcome of annual wage talks this month will be pivotal

Speaking Thursday in Sao Paulo after a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers, BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda said the bank’s target of sustained 2% inflation is “not yet” in sight, and that “we will continue working to confirm” whether a virtuous cycle of wage and price growth is underway.

[Forex Cycle]

USDCHF Analysis: Consolidation Phase Continues, Key Levels to Monitor

Following a touch of the 0.8885 resistance level, USDCHF retraced from 0.8892 and has since been consolidating for the uptrend originating from 0.8550.

As long as the critical support level at 0.8742 remains intact, the uptrend is likely to resume. A breakthrough of the 0.8892 resistance level could propel the price towards the 0.9000 area.

Conversely, a breach below the 0.8742 support level would signal the completion of the upward movement at 0.8892. In such a scenario, the next target area would be around 0.8600.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Re: Reuters – Strongly – considering – thinking – tightening …Ehmmm…still USDJPY should try for the highs once again….Oh I forgot Likely ….and where is the money to support that blubber ???

[GVI Forex]

From the Reuters article

Yet all the market chatter is about how the current wage round is going strongly and will likely lead the Bank of Japan to end negative rates in April, and unwind yield curve control.

Japan’s government is considering declaring an end to deflation, reports Kyodo news agency, which would be another marker on the road to tightening.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Look at the convergence of the two …interesting…CHF becomes the biggest looser

EURUSD

USDCHF

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

It’s been a largely risk-on start to a week packed with central bank events and major data that will refine market wagers for when developed world interest rates will finally start falling.

Morning Bid: Looming event risk can’t stop Nikkei topping 40,000

[SF Monedge]

Expecting UsdChf to be contained through Monday between 8810 and 8870.  A bit wide, not every day is like that.  Something substantial would be required to alter that range.

[GVI Forex]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony beginning on Wednesday, and how he spins the outlook for rate cuts, will be the first of two major events in the US. The second will be Friday’s monthly employment report where slowing payroll growth together with cooling wage pressures – both favorable for rate cuts – are expected. Neither the Bank of Canada on Wednesday nor the European Central Bank on Thursday are expected to cut rates.

Tokyo consumer prices will be Tuesday’s highlight amid expectations for a pop higher in the data. Chinese consumer price data will be posted on Saturday, March 9 local time in what is expected to be another very benign report.

Updates from Germany and whether the country is sliding into recession will open on Wednesday with merchandise trade followed on Thursday with manufacturing orders and on Friday with industrial production. Declines are mostly expected for the latter reports.

Australian fourth-quarter GDP on Wednesday is expected to show modest growth, while Canada’s labour force survey on Friday is expected, much like the consensus for Friday’s US report, to retrace unusual gains from January.

Econoday

[GVI Forex]

AUDUSD 4-Hour Chart

AUDUSD trying to build some upward momentum but would need to establish above .6531 to give it some legs.

Perhaps more important is that it is back around .6500, expect some support on dips as long as it trades above it.

Below .6484 negates upside risk.

[Author]

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