[Swiss Frank]

To give some perspective to the importance of who heads the SNB following Jordan who was a strong advocate of currency management, in 2022 the SNB sold foreign currencies worth 22.3 bio CHF. In 2023 under Jordan’s strong CHF policy they sold 132.9 bio chf of foreign currencies (buying CHF). Any step back from the strong CHF policy should have a super size impact….

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/swiss-national-bank-sold-forex-worth-nearly-150-billion-2023-2024-03-19/

[Swiss Frank]

SNB HIGHLY unlikely to move on rates tomorrow. Meeting speculation centers around whether a successor to Jordan will be named tomorrow. Which is also probably unlikely but fwiw thats the talk…

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/the-frontrunners-to-replace-swiss-national-bank-president-thomas-jordan/73207658

[GVI Forex]

2 more hours until the FOMC. Bond yields off, USD backing off a bit, suggests someone is looking for the status quo FOMC.

[SF Monedge]

Nice commentary from everyone in here today.  My colleagues are of the view June Gold futures are Seller controlled and are selling rallies into the 2196-2225 range.

[Mtl JP]

After FOMC today

SNB with 35% odds of rate cutting on deck tomorrow, Thursday.
Eminently playable imo

[SF Monedge]

With BoJ making a move on rates I think it gave the market less concern over intervention, so Amman’s assessment earlier may be spot on as he usually is.  I am just not touching longs in UsdJpy because anything overly aggressive to the upside could put the “I” word back in play.  I’m in crosses only pre-Fed.

[Mtl JP]

I think GV’s Trading Tools offers pivots , fwiw

[Mtl JP]

bit closer to current price action
other values on the euro that may work are Pivot R1 and Pivot S1

[Mtl JP]

funny that lagarde felt compelled to pipe in about inflation and – attention – needing more evidence and in so doing sharing nothing new beyond aping yakkings from her minions.

EURO 1.0849
If this puppy s going to move I d be expecting it to be down
below its 200day is 1.08 and 1.0775

R 1.0875

[SF Monedge]

Viewing a 10 year monthly time frame in UsdJpy the pair went parabolic April of 2022 from 112.  One might think BoJ is hoping the Fed/market will cause a pause entering these levels, or they have a quiet agreement with the Fed.  Or if they don’t get what they want they will be in the market.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.287
FOMC and jerome’s yak
–
Unlikely that we will see anything different than 5.5% and anything different than 75bps from their famous dot plot.

the FOMC-ers will goad jerome to whine about some stickiness in inflation and potential for a bit of a rise BUT – on the other hand – offset that with optimism about lower growth and ouch ouch out shed a tear lower jobs.

Are players positioned for a hawkish jerome ? There-in lies the bet, especially if jerome comes out and be perceived by players even minutely leaning towards easing, even if just not yet.

Lets see IF I can make some moolah off a communication breakdown (cue Led Zeppelin)

[SF Monedge]

I’m trailing UsdJpy with sell stops entry a bit further out than market and adjust as it keeps going.  No way I am long this pair from here out with BoJ lurking.

[SF Monedge]

Our colleagues are confident June 10yr futures have set a low at 110 , so buy dips would be the tone; lower rates coming with the futures price rally from 110 .

[wfakhoury Amman]

USDJPY
In a buy mood.
151.95 confirmed will be reached.
15240 confirmed, too, will be reached.
Any decline below 150.50 will return to it.

[Swiss Frank]

clearly…. options are really the only way to express the short jpy view…

And even with that the preference seems to have been to go the other way and play for the reversal…..

[Belgrade Bobby]

Very difficult to sit in JPY for weeks/months , with it’s ups and downs….

[Swiss Frank]

What there seems to be especially in eur/usd and to some degree gbp/usd is a lack of desire to commit. The weaker links (jpy and chf) are easier to punch down on so there in lies the path of least resistance. That said I don’t get the feeling there are that many people that have been short jpy for months or even weeks…..

[Swiss Frank]

I think Fed stays data dependent and not influenced by elections either way. History since 1980 supports this.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/what-has-the-fed-done-in-election-years/#:~:text=Since%201980%2C%20the%20Fed%20has,hiked%20in%20five%20election%20years.

Since data has tended to come stronger than not, there shouldn’t be any urgency from the Fed to start the cutting cycle.

I would however expect a high degree of coordination between the Fed and the Treasury on managing federal cash flow….

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – Major RResistance In Sight

There is only one level worth noting in USDJPY, the major resistance at 151.92

A break above this level would leave a blank on charts so use magic levels (152, 155, etc) as potential targets.

So it is a case of boom or bust at 151.92. If I were in the BoJ’s shoes, I would have 2 choices: defend 151.92 or let it run through 152 and then come in covertly to smack it back down but its shoes are too big for me to fill.

Whatever the case, watch 152 as this will dictate whether there is a run at 153.50 and 155.00 or form a range to 150.00.

[GVI Forex]

Bobby

Zero chance that rates will change.

No chance Fed will turn dovish.

Surorise would be if the Dot plot shows 2 cuts (see JP’s post on this)

The other surprise would be if the first-rate cut is pushed out past June although as I posted the other say, I heard that the odds had shrunk to 50/50 for the first-rate cut in June.

FX will probably take its cue from how bond yields move but this should be a non-event meeting unless Dot plot turns more hawkish.

More comments welcomed

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