[SF Monedge]

JP – as usual the political con artists will save their skins at the last moment and pass something.

[Mtl JP]

NOT YET in focus for pricing but has potential
–
March 1 gov’t shutdown

[Mtl JP]

with the FED at 5.25% 10yr at 4.301%
is PATHETIC

[SF Monedge]

10yr exceeded our expectation today…43 roughly should be it for the day I believe.

[Mtl JP]

of course !
–
Policymakers are particularly focused on labor costs as a key driver of medium-term inflation. While pressure on negotiated wages eased at the end of 2023, a new forward-looking indicator signals elevated salaries aren’t yet at an inflection point.

Lagarde said last week that slower pay growth in the fourth quarter was “encouraging,” but that bargaining rounds in the following period will be vital for decision-making on rates.

[Mtl JP]

ahhhh yess !
–
Lagarde said wage pressures remain strong, reiterating that salaries will likely become an increasingly important driver of price dynamics in the coming quarters.

“The current disinflationary process is expected to continue,” Lagarde said Monday at a plenary debate on the ECB’s 2022 annual report. “But the Governing Council needs to be confident that it will lead us sustainably to our 2% target.”

[Mtl JP]

monkey see monkey do
–
(Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the retreat in inflation in the euro zone will continue but that she and her colleagues need to see more evidence that price growth is returning to their goal.

probably peasants pay taming

[GVI Forex]

Today’s Heat Map

EUR strongest

AUD and NZD are both the weakest

JPY is the next weakest

[Mtl JP]

IF you must …
–
MEPs set to debate inflation and possible interest rate cuts with ECB President
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/agenda/briefing/2024-02-26/16/meps-set-to-debate-inflation-and-possible-interest-rate-cuts-with-ecb-president

Inflation, efforts to curb it, and possible interest rate cuts are set to be the focus of a debate with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Monday afternoon.

[Belgrade Bobby]

I had a friend who was huge fan of NOK…but those were the days when interest rate differential was in it’s favour…he used to sit long NOK  for months…:D

[SF Monedge]

For those of us who like to play around a bit with crosses, Nok/Jpy moves a little slower than other pairs and appears to be targeting 14.35 again.  Bias has been decidedly buy side in the prior 10 days, any declines have not pierced outer range pivots but have been compromising upside key value areas and, 14.35 is one of them.  Any price activity from 14.32 is likely to pull back today/overnight in our model.

[GVI Forex]

Frank, it is on our list and depends on what we can do within the program. Thanks for the suggestion and reminder.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0840
–
bit on the backfoot post 10am in ny
technically somewhere between ambivalent and bullish

Res 1.0890
Sup 1.0810

lagarde yaks at top of hour

[SF Monedge]

See 10yr capping around or below 42.80 for the day likely.  Advance/Decline ratio noted earlier is for S/P 500.

[Belgrade Knez]

if EURUSD goes down to 1.0820, then high probability to go even further down to 1.0810 to test Friday low

[SF Monedge]

Side note – Advance/Decline ratio is decidedly underwater albeit pulling up a pinch.  That will usually effect Eur in tandem.

[SF Monedge]

Hi Bobby, top of the day to you.  I do not believe it will make it that low, more likely 0820+ area on a decline and not strong odds it makes it there.  Going with market behavior which at present appears to be the market finding a balance in this area until we have events/data that would move things.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.68

basiCALLY PUPPY is has an ambivalent relationship with traders they love it but don’t like it.
meaning … that the pup has, at least sofar, limited upside potential
unless some monster reason driver pops on the scene.

10:00nyt – new home sales
10:30nyt – dallas fed manuf index
13:00nyt – 5yr paper auction

[SF Monedge]

Gold is targeting 2030 and Aud/Usd is moving in tandem.  We like testing the buy side of Aud from the 6530/35 area if seen just for today.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Monedge, why do you think it can go as low as 1.08100 ? If they do, that would really change a picture …

[Author]

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