[GVI Forex]

Next up

US RETAIL SALES (THU): US retail sales are expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. -0.8%), and the ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.3% M/M too (prev. -0.6%). Bank of America’s Consumer Checkpoint update for February notes that weather conditions were largely to blame for the weakness in January, but where the weather was better, spending was resilient, and in the later part of January, total card spending per household rebounded across the country. The bank notes that while consumer confidence has rebounded recently, it remains relatively weak given the consumer has been resilient over the last year and the labour market has been solid, likely a result of ‘sticker shock’ from higher prices. But ahead, BofA says that “as the rate of inflation comes down, this sticker shock should begin to fade, particularly as aftertax wages and salaries growth remains healthy for low and middle-income households in our data,” adding that “consumers’ savings buffers remain elevated and shows no significant sign that people are tapping into their longer-term retirement savings.”Newsquawk.com

[Belgrade Bobby]

Are we on da Holiday ?? I am sleepy in the morning, but market beats me…

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.206% Yield | 3:38 AM EDT

yellen watch

(Bloomberg) March 13, 2024 — US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said it’s “unlikely” that market interest rates will return to levels that prevailed before the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a wave of inflation and higher yields.

“I think it reflects current market realities and the forecasts that we’re seeing in the private sector — that it seems unlikely that yields are going to go back to being as low as they were before the pandemic,”

The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes averaged 2.39% in the decade through 2019 — low by historical standards. It spiked above 5% last October after the Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively to combat inflation, and now sits just below 4.2%

[Mtl JP]

SF 5:18 pm / 88003 your trgt hit
kitching kitching
–
the best “like”, clap clap ieeha there is

[Forex Cycle]

USDCAD Analysis: Breakdown Below Support and Potential Price Movements

USDCAD has recently breached the support level at 1.3466, signaling a resumption of the downward movement from 1.3605.

A further decline towards testing the 1.3419 support level is anticipated in the upcoming days. Should there be a breakdown below this level, it could potentially trigger an extended downward move towards the 1.3340 area.

The initial resistance to monitor stands at 1.3490. A successful breakout above this level could lead to a retest of the 1.3525 resistance level. Surpassing this level would suggest that the downward movement from 1.3605 may have concluded at 1.3419, with the next target likely at 1.3560, followed by the previous high at 1.3605.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports at 1.09300 & 1.08700

Resistances at : 1.09650 , 1.09800 & 1.10500

For the pair to continue Upwards and target 1.10500 , it has to stay Tomorrow above 1.09300. Any break bellow would lead it to Channel Support at 1.08700.

1.09650 is a Major Obstacle on the road to new highs .

In the case it shows as a tough cookie, EURUSD will start the Inevitable deeper correction .

Buying it above 1.09300 , with the very tight stop just bellow it is the strategy if you feel the need to be involved.

The other approach is wait and see, and if 1.09300 taken out, Sell for the run to 1.08700 area.

[GVI Forex]

Bond yields back up to pre-auction levels

[Mtl JP]

fwiw wells fargo’s experts now joining the june cut expectation crowd

[Mtl JP]

Bobby 5:11 / not obstacles: trgts. 50 already poof!

[GVI Forex]

Good 30 year auction, yields dip a touch, usd follows

Nikkei reports BoJ to discuss exiting negative rates – not a surprise but consensus building for an exit at next weeks meeting

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD 1-HOUR CHART

With the retracement holding the pivotal 2150 level, XAUUSD is trying to make another run at the upside.

However, to challenge the high, 2182-86+ needs to trade. Otherwise consolidation within 2150-2195 until eirther side breaks.

In the meantime expect support as long as 2161-66 and the trendline holds.

[SF Monedge]

I am long UsdChf from below btw and looking for 8800.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – two obstacles – 1.09500 and 1.09800

[SF Monedge]

It appears the market may be intent on finding fair value around 8730/40 UsdChf

[GVI Forex]

USDX 30 Minute Chart

On a quiet news day like today the price action can give a clue to the current supply-demand imbalance, which is tilted to the USD sell side at least for today.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.176%

EURO 1.0942
I am baised BoD while N of 1.09

[SF Monedge]

Since we are discussing trading approaches in a 5 pip market, it may sound silly to some, it surely does to me, I kid you not I went on a run years ago trading macd on a 1 minute chart, taking 3 to 5 pips a trade, 10 to 15 times a day with accuracy.  Thought I was Joe Montana.  And then………the inevitable 30 point market pounce against me.  Important to have a sense of the bigger picture.  It caused me to trade with no indicators for quite some time.

[SF Monedge]

A CTA told me many years ago the only reason other CTA’s trade Fibo levels is because they know other market makers do, therefore there will be liquidity and possible start/stop areas.  Nothing else.  No other reason.  I found that trading certain percentages of gain/decline from the start of the Asian session is strong.

[SF Monedge]

JP – Precisely.  Martingale and trading while sipping vodka are both a recipe for trading loss.  Guaranteed.

[Mtl JP]

IF 5 pips move makes one nervous if not outright panicky – just as you enter a trade in the negative due to dealer spread – you have no business trading.

You need to have the cohones to be in the red for a few minutes without having to consult your emotional support dog for help deal with anxiety / emotional distress

[Author]

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