[Mtl JP]

11:31 Belgrade Bobby: tks for the glimps into part of your trading /

I am not a fan of elaborate, complex, multi multi-conditional parametric trading, especially IF it is demanding way of trading, both physically and psychologically that ultimately has to rely on having to use very simple techniques

It sounds to me that a simple (i.e. no martingale) scalping robot including a programmed dynamic spread conditionals (fixed is not a guarantee of execution) might make for an easier trading day including opportunities for yoga / meditation and screw the coffee in favor of a satisfying celebratory sip of Russian Standard vodka

[SF Monedge]

Yesterday’s hard sell in GbpChf did not change the overall long condition.  That said I will begin testing the sell side around 1.1260 or higher if seen.  Believe the market might attempt to find value in the high 190.40 area, and perhaps the 190.90 area in coming days.

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 15 MIN CHART

Let’s take a look at a shorter-time frame chart

USDJPY has backed off from a tepid test of 148ish and is still trapped with a bid while above 147.70 support (noted earlier).

See my blog article Is a BoJ Rate Hike Discounted? How Will USDJPY React?

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.0941 … since my biased UP post about 40 mins ago (ooops not 40 mins 2.5 hrs or so)

how s THAT for a 5 pip trade uh ?

clap clap cheers yeaAAHH ieeha !

now it can slip back some for a new BoD
all thy risk trading parameters, naturally

[GVI Forex]

For those looking at yields for a clue 4.20% in the 10 year seems like a pivotal resistance on top.

[GVI Forex]

Heads up

US yields moving higher

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 4-Hour Chart

USDJPY is flirting with 148 as weak JPY crosses provide support.

Key resistance is clear at yesterday’s 148.30 post-CPI high/

Looking at intra-day short-term charts, support is at 147.70, which needs to hold to keep the focus on 148.

[GVI Forex]

JP, you missed my point.

I am saying when a currency is in a tight range even a 5 pip move can make it feel  bid or offered on a chart.

[GVI Forex]

EURJPY 4-Hour Chart

Red AT lines are now dominating as pre-BpJ trading sees USDJPY firm back towards 148 and offsets giving EURUSD some support.

Levels are clear on the chart with a bid while above 161.56 and the trendline.

These are fickle times ahead of the BoJ but for now there seems to be some cold feet from the JOY longs.

[Belgrade Bobby]

5 Pip trades

When we talk about idea – strategy to trade for cca 5 pips profit per trade, I have to say that it is Real.

I have been trading that way in last 10 years constantly , developing different systems and learning from every single mistake that I made. It is very demanding way of trading, both physically and psychologically – and probably that is a bigger problem than achieving 5 pips…

You can use from 2 min to 5 min chart ( 1 minute is untradeable in real market conditions )

Firm Risk management has to be applied :

R/R minimum 1:2  – preferably 1:3

Stop Loss pre set and never changed

Profit taking manually depending on the situation ( experience )

Leverage High to Extremely High ( so from 1:100 – 1:500 otherwise you are wasting your time )

Never change the trading plan in between ( you enter on a signal of 3 min and decide to stick around longer as you saw something on 5,10,15 min chart – you’re dead )

Never hesitate – just execute – or from +3 you go to -5 in seconds

Probability of your system has to be over 80%

You can’t chose which signals you’re  gonna trade and which not – you must execute all of them. Or you’ll end up picking the wrong ones.

To be able to come to such a system, you have to use very simple techniques – anything even remotely complicated takes too much time – trade gone ( also, no time to do your yoga exercise prior to entering the position – coffee is ok as long as it is on the table and exactly in the same place …every single day, or you gonna have it all over your comp )

Trading can be done in hour and half to tops 2 h at the time..anything more, you are lost.

Important – you have to have a broker that gives you max 0.5 spread, or fixed 0.0 with the commission .

Depending on the day, you end up with everything between 2-3 and 30+ pips

You trade only in the bracket between Europe open and NY close

High liquidity will pump up your profits, but there are days with Low liquidity that made my day big time – somehow clearer to trade…

[Mtl JP]

betting is open
–
“Biden and Trump clinch nominations, heading to another general election rematch” – cnn

I maintain my op that joe will “POOF!” (begone) by May / June.
of course that is a “maybe

[Mtl JP]

Jay / 5 pip ranges / “several times 5 pips per day and you fly first class!” (Bobby ?)

IF you trade at least one lot AND don’t get caught in a breakout.

***
lots of pundits having a field day on account of jerome and his data-dependent inflation fight and will he / wont he cut and if at all in 2024

[GVI Forex]

JP, when ranges are tight, a 5-pip swing can change sentiment quickly.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr Yield 4.143% | 4:39 AM EDT
new day, maybe new way

eurdlr sentiment, so far, technically: UP

[Mtl JP]

Reuters Mar 13, 2024 at 7:55 am GMT
ECB’s Villeroy: spring interest rate cut remains probable

PARIS, March 13 (Reuters) -The European Central Bank will probably start cutting rates during the spring, between April and June 21, as the “victory” against inflation is in sight, …. Lagarde earlier this month hinted strongly that a long-awaited rate cut would be more likely to happen at the central bank’s meeting in early June, rather than in April

EURO 1.0930

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Big Japanese companies have agreed in full to union pay demands, a sign that workers could perhaps have pushed a bit harder, but also that wage momentum could encourage a historic policy shift by the Bank of Japan.

MORNING BID EUROPE-Japan wage deals put BOJ at centre stage

[Forex Cycle]

AUDUSD Analysis: Uptrend Continuation and Key Levels

AUDUSD continues its upward trajectory from 0.6477, with the recent retracement from 0.6667 likely representing a period of consolidation within the uptrend.

As long as the support at 0.6584 remains intact, the uptrend is anticipated to resume, potentially leading to a further ascent towards the 0.6750 region.

The initial resistance level to monitor is at 0.6640. A successful breakout above this level could propel the price towards testing the 0.6667 resistance. Subsequent breakthrough above 0.6667 would set the stage for a push towards 0.6750.

Conversely, a breakdown below the 0.6584 support level would signal a potential completion of the upward movement at 0.6667, potentially resulting in a decline towards the 0.6500 level.

[Mtl JP]

ya ya yeah
–
A focus at the next Fed meeting will be whether most officials continue to expect three cuts this year—or fewer

Inflation Uptick Unlikely to Derail Fed Cut Later This Year

we ll all be making a bet on that

[GVI Forex]

UK GDP (WED): Expectations are for a 0.2% expansion in M/M GDP for January vs. the 0.1% contraction seen in December. The December release saw a 0.1% M/M contraction vs. the 0.2% expansion in November with the monthly data coinciding with the Q4 metrics which showed the UK entered into a technical recession at the end of 2024.

For the upcoming report, Pantheon Macro is of the view that the January data will show the UK “leaving last year’s minor recession firmly behind”. The consultancy adds that the 3.4% jump in January retail sales will explain “almost all” of the 0.2% M/M expansion it expects for the January data.

Furthermore, Pantheon is of the view that strength in the upcoming release will not be a “flash in the pan” given that PMI data has continued to recover since October with the February composite metric of 53.0 consistent with 0.25% Q/Q growth. From a policy perspective, a favourable release will likely put the UK on track to exceed the BoE’s mild 0.1% forecast for Q1 Q/Q GDP. However, it is unlikely to shift market pricing materially given the Bank’s ongoing focus on real wages and services inflation.

Newsquaek.com

[Mtl JP]

Reminder to the peasants
“‘Theirs not to reason why, / Theirs but to do and die’”
—
* Fund managers want the EU to issue debt to upgrade defense
* Underspending has left states vulnerable to Russian aggression

BBRG Bond Investors Are Lining Up to Fund the War Against Putin

Sadliest best line – imho : “A debt-funded EU defense program “would be a very welcome development — an Hamiltonian moment so to say,” said Kaspar Hense, a senior portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, referring to the Treasury secretary who in 1790 helped turn the US into a federation by pooling the debt of various states. “I would not worry about there not being demand.”

[Author]

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