I like the discourse. Currency traders have a lot of spirit. In the spirit of viewing cross currencies, I am very dialed in on GbpChf this week and believe the hard sell to the 1170 area on the data did not compromise the average true range of the bigger picture and see decent probabilities for the pair to search for fair value back toward 1250. That would transfer to other Sterling pairs of course. So the plan for me today was to close everything last night and hope for a failed downward strike, which we got this time. So I am looking for the pair to run out of gas a bit higher than current market.
maybe get on with technological times and offer kitchen sink: hand clapping, applause, cheer etc for the isolated lonely hearts to help with engaging in social interaction with faceless “friends”
why not instead add something constructive of trading value to a post’s theme that you “like” or do you really need an opp to express a personal emotion of approval – as if it matters to someone on the forum ?
US CPI (TUE): The rate of headline CPI is expected to rise +0.4% M/M in February (prev. +0.3%), while the core rate of inflation is expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.4%). Traders upped hawkish bets on the expected path for policy rates following January’s pick-up in CPI and will look to the February data to help refine expectations of when the Fed is likely to cut rates. Currently, the market has discounted the prospects of three rate cuts this year and assigns a decent probability of a fourth. Policymakers have been looking through a single months’ data, and are focussed on recent trend rates; in January, the rate of 3-month annualised core CPI rose to 3.9% (from 3.3%), while the 6-month annualised rate rose to 3.5% (from 3.2%).
Fed Chair Powell this week told lawmakers that while inflation remains above 2%, it has eased substantially of late. Still, Powell stated that it would not be appropriate to reduce the policy rate until policymakers had greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably towards 2%, adding that they were not looking for inflation to move all the way down to 2%, instead, the sustainability of the move was more important in assessing the outlook. He also said that the Fed was not looking for ‘better’ inflation readings than we have had recently, but was looking for more of what we have seen.
USDJPY 4H Chart – Fibbo Fans