USDJPY 30 MIN CHART – Correcting but still below the latest breakdown level
A failure to decisively break below 146.50 leaves the range to 148. On the other side, only 148+ would deflect risk on the downside.
As I noted, 147.61 was a breakdown level so the one blocking a shift in risk back to 148. So far the rebound has paused just below it.
Intra-day levels are in the chart.
NOTE
USDJPY bounced after BoJ Gov Ueda, testifying, gave no hint of a rate hike at next week’s meeting. He said we will see what data shows later in the week.
If trading USDJPY, do it intra-day as one off-hand comment overnight can send this pair up or down as market awaits next week’s BoJ decision.
US CPI next on deck.
GBPUSD 4 HOUR Chart
As noted yesterday, 1.28 is the only level to watch as it will dictate whether GBPUSD corrects further. Note the 2 blue AT lines whuch indicate a potential change in direction that played out.
This chart shows little until 1.2722 so expect the 1.2750-80 zone to be a key one as only a break below the lower end would shift thf focus from 1.28
NOTE
UK labor report showed a slight moderation
EURGBP bounce gave a clue to GBPUSD vulnerable downside
Bew ball game after US CPI later on
USDCHF Analysis: Breakdown Below Support Level and Price Channel Dynamics
USDCHF has recently breached the support level at 0.8742 and remains within a descending price channel on the 4-hour chart.
While the price remains within this channel, there is potential for a further downward movement in the upcoming days, with the next target area likely around 0.8700.
A critical resistance level to watch is situated at 0.8794. A successful breakout above this level would suggest that the downward movement from 0.8892 may have concluded at 0.8729, potentially paving the way for another upward move towards 0.8900.
AudCad is targeting 8930/40 area to see what is there. If it fails it will dump straight to8890. On the buy side from 8808 and riding locked in. In activity like this it likely fails if it gets up there without solid supporting conditions including fundamentals. Nobody else is posting and Monedge is very active so why not. If you are new to this, some of us currency traders are very active.
GBP – That 2790 survived so far increases probabilities of a back fill toward 2850 and if that survives then down it goes. If 2770 hits and lingers this pair is likely to target 1.2700 in my view. Anything in the middle of that is horseplay in my view. It is a matter of the market finding fair value with all factors considered. Smaller picture the activity is on the sell side, a bit larger picture it is still bid.
Don’t forget to check the Economic Calendar
GBPUSD 1-HOUR CHART
The GBPUSD chart speaks for itself. All you need to look at is one level.
1.28 briefly tested, will dictate whether this retreat turns into a correction.
Trendlines on both sides form a wedge closer to the downside but so far untouched.
UK jobs report and US CPI on Tuesday so a fasten your seatbelt day
A bit different approach to USDJPY
As major supports behind this Up trend are far and away right now -143.250 & 139.000, only approach to trading USDJPY is intraday – time frames from 1h and bellow.
But if we look at it on this Daily chart, the following can be concluded – if in next two days USD finds the strength to go above 148.800 (lots, I know we will be looking at the renewed and even stronger Rally Up.
However, ” If” is not a reliable trading tool, but “Wait and see” comes as a good strategy , so we should accept that approach…
In the mean time, as long as USD is on the defensive, Short it on the smaller time frames given Sell signals , be fast and do not be greedy .
Read earlier that Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group, plots bitcoin’s actual price over the past decade along with Erb’s application of Metcalfe’s Law with the result being a fair value of $35,000 for Bitcoin.
Side note, some ideas for orders I tried to post earlier but it would not post for some reason – buy side AudChf 5790 – Buy side AudCad 8900 – Sell side GbpChf 1260 – GbpUsd Buy side 2812 or lower – AudUsd buy side 6594 or lower – UsdJpy sell side 147.10 or higher –
EURUSD 4-Hour Chart – Retracement or Consolidation?
The market is trying to retrace but pressures only build if 1.0917 is firmly taken out (so far just briefly). If broken there is little on this chart until 1.0867 (suggests 1.09 will be important). Needs to stay below 1.0946 to keep a retracement risk alive
On the upside, if the retracement fails to build steam, look for consolidation unless Friday’s high at 1.0981 is taken out.
Expect cautious trading ahead of the next key event risk, US CPI on Tuesday.
What Is Consolidation?
Consolidation in technical analysis refers to an asset oscillating between a well-defined pattern of trading levels. Consolidation is generally interpreted as market indecisiveness, which ends when the asset’s price moves above or below the trading pattern…. Investopedia
In simple terms, it means trading within well-defined support and resistance levels until either side breaks.
A timely article posted this weekend i n our blog
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