dlrcad 1.3562 – I am bullish the pair. players expecting 5% rate. If macklem comes out oooh-n-aaah-ing not yet there miawing I am expecting players will take that as hawkish and club some of the eager doves
for me 1.3550/40 needs to hold else its it is my BoD death
GV – I remember that flash crash in 2014 I think it was. I was on the right side of the fence small purely out of luck and got out fast small +. That day was intense. Foreign exchange requires nerve sometimes eh?
I get a bout of PTSD even writing about USDCHF so I will just lay out the AT chart levels in this 4-hour chart
You can make a bearish case as long as the .8892 level stays untouched but a break of .8779 and the trendline would be need to confirm the risk has shifted.
JP – Concur. UsdChf is the pair receiving the lions share of money flow today as was the case yesterday. 10yr yield has been dropping since yesterday which creates a scenario where it would take something significant for 41.0 to be compromised and stick negative.
waller said earlier
–
“I am going to need to see at least another couple more months of inflation data.” “The strength of the economy and the recent data we have received on inflation mean it is appropriate to be patient, careful, methodical, deliberative – pick your favorite synonym. Whatever word you pick, they all translate to one idea: What’s the rush?”
how would you like that be translated ?
– that powell & co will be happy market is aligned with expectations (ie. 3 cuts) OR
– no cut at all in 2024 ?
For UsdCad with the BoC announcement today, if 3535 survives it likely tests the highs of 3605. If it fails to accelerate there then we should see 3500.
GV – No way I am on the buy side of UsdJpy, even if it takes off uphill, with the BoJ lurking. For me, its sell buy waves and deploy resting/trailing sell stop entries.
Powell: With market expectations now aligned with Fed’s 3 rate cuts the general feeling is that Powell will be content with what financial markets currently expect and that will not want to rock the boat.
As always markets move in a surprise of look to spin an event to fit its view.
Entertaining the sell side of GBPUSD from 2727 and EURUSD m from 0877. Do not see either pair accelerating substantially from here headed into NY with Fed speak on tap. Could be a stale day pre-Fed speak.
according to jeff cox:
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill on Wednesday with markets intent on getting more clarity about how the central bankf plans on proceeding with monetary policy this year.
* Central to the question of how the Fed acts from here on out is its view on inflation and how Powell expresses that.
* Powell’s testimony before Congress comes at a ticklish time for markets: After breaching historic highs, major stock averages have sold off this week.
