[Forex Cycle]

USDCHF Analysis: Consolidation Phase Continues, Key Levels to Monitor

Following a touch of the 0.8885 resistance level, USDCHF retraced from 0.8892 and has since been consolidating for the uptrend originating from 0.8550.

As long as the critical support level at 0.8742 remains intact, the uptrend is likely to resume. A breakthrough of the 0.8892 resistance level could propel the price towards the 0.9000 area.

Conversely, a breach below the 0.8742 support level would signal the completion of the upward movement at 0.8892. In such a scenario, the next target area would be around 0.8600.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Re: Reuters – Strongly – considering – thinking – tightening …Ehmmm…still USDJPY should try for the highs once again….Oh I forgot Likely ….and where is the money to support that blubber ???

[GVI Forex]

From the Reuters article

Yet all the market chatter is about how the current wage round is going strongly and will likely lead the Bank of Japan to end negative rates in April, and unwind yield curve control.

Japan’s government is considering declaring an end to deflation, reports Kyodo news agency, which would be another marker on the road to tightening.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Look at the convergence of the two …interesting…CHF becomes the biggest looser

EURUSD

USDCHF

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

It’s been a largely risk-on start to a week packed with central bank events and major data that will refine market wagers for when developed world interest rates will finally start falling.

Morning Bid: Looming event risk can’t stop Nikkei topping 40,000

[SF Monedge]

Expecting UsdChf to be contained through Monday between 8810 and 8870.  A bit wide, not every day is like that.  Something substantial would be required to alter that range.

[GVI Forex]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony beginning on Wednesday, and how he spins the outlook for rate cuts, will be the first of two major events in the US. The second will be Friday’s monthly employment report where slowing payroll growth together with cooling wage pressures – both favorable for rate cuts – are expected. Neither the Bank of Canada on Wednesday nor the European Central Bank on Thursday are expected to cut rates.

Tokyo consumer prices will be Tuesday’s highlight amid expectations for a pop higher in the data. Chinese consumer price data will be posted on Saturday, March 9 local time in what is expected to be another very benign report.

Updates from Germany and whether the country is sliding into recession will open on Wednesday with merchandise trade followed on Thursday with manufacturing orders and on Friday with industrial production. Declines are mostly expected for the latter reports.

Australian fourth-quarter GDP on Wednesday is expected to show modest growth, while Canada’s labour force survey on Friday is expected, much like the consensus for Friday’s US report, to retrace unusual gains from January.

Econoday

[GVI Forex]

AUDUSD 4-Hour Chart

AUDUSD trying to build some upward momentum but would need to establish above .6531 to give it some legs.

Perhaps more important is that it is back around .6500, expect some support on dips as long as it trades above it.

Below .6484 negates upside risk.

[SF Monedge]

“The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days,” Michael Hartnett, chief strategist of Bank of America, wrote in a note to clients seen by CNBC, adding it’s “little wonder ‘debt debasement’ trades closing in on all-time highs, i.e. gold [at] $2077/oz.

[GVI Forex]

EURGBP DAILY CHART

Higher red AT lines off the low show some risk on the upside but would need to get through the top of the current .8528-78 range to expose .8593-/8621

However, to confirm a break in trend, the key trendline (see chart) would need to be taken out.

Looking at shorter time frames, support at .8550-55 would need to hold to keep a bid.

The bounce in EURUGBP is one reason why EURUSD is finding some suppot.

[Swiss Frank]

Happy Birthday to anyone whose birthday it might be today…..

[GVI Forex]

Newsquawk Week Ahead: 4th – 8th March

Mon: Swiss CPI (Feb), South Korean GDP (Q4), Japanese Tokyo CPI (Feb),

Tue: US Primary Super Tuesday, Chinese Caixin Services PMI Final (Feb), EZ/UK/US Services and Composite PMI Final (Feb), EZ PPI (Jan), US ISM Services PMI (Feb), South Korean CPI (Feb)

Wed: BoC Announcement, Australian GDP (Q4), German Trade Balance (Jan)

Thu: ECB Announcement, Japanese Wage Data, Chinese Trade Balance (Feb)

Fri: German Industrial Output and PPI (Jan), EZ GDP Revised (Q4), US Jobs Report (Feb), Canadian Jobs Report (Feb)

Sat: Chinese Inflation (Feb)

Sun: Japanese GDP (R)

http://www.newsquawk.com

[Belgrade Bobby]

Welcome Emma and Drifter 😀 Feel free to share your insights, ask questions and be a part of our community .

Please avoid posting advertising material of any kind, unless approved up front.

[GVI Forex]

Key event week with Fed Powell  Powell testifying on Wed and the ECB meeting on Thurs so let’s take a look at the EURUSD

EURUSD AT Daily Chart

2 higher red support lines show a risk to the upside that requires a break of 1.0896 to give legs to the upside.

Whatever the case, 1.08 is the current bias setter, and only back below it would put the 1.0760 support in play again.

[Mtl JP]

The Toll of The Bell
–
NYT 02/03/2924 – Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds

The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s performance reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.
With eight months left until the election, Mr. Biden’s support lags behind Donald Trump’s in the national survey of registered voters.

***

I maintain my opinion that joe will be POOF! by may, at latest by june.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily – Week Ahead

Supports at : 1.08200 1.07950 1.07250

Resistances at : 1.08500 1.08900 1.09350 and 1.10850

Friday’s close indicates a probable move to the Resistances first. The pattern calls for a test of 1.08900.

I am going to be free to say that I can see 1.09350 reached already on Monday – that is what I see….and I don’t have a crystal ball 😀

For that to happen, EURUSD should not go bellow 1.08200 .

 

[wfakhoury Amman]

Bobby you can delete any post you want ,but having in mind that my signal is on Nasdaq Index and is
not on any stock.
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Neither Nasdaq nor the Information Providers shall under any circumstance be liable to user (and/or any third party) for any lost profits or lost opportunity, indirect, special, consequential, incidental, or punitive damages whatsoever, even if Nasdaq has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Anyhow I will be not in the forum next week
Have a nice weekend

[wfakhoury Amman]

All my signals last week achieved their targets by 100%, moving the price between the levels I set for it. Next week we will achieve the same results to obtain good profits.

[Mtl JP]

SF – I am pretty certain he does not have only friends.
FX traders have long memories (see Jay’s post below) and between zero and negative (ie. vindictive) goodwill

[GVI Forex]

USDCHF 4-Hour Chart

I swore off trading the CHF after the infamous 2015 SNB-inspired flash crash (new traders should Google it) but JP has alerted me to perhaps start trading it again.

This chart shows a failed breakout and subsequent retreat. Ket levels can be seen in the chart.

The CHF along with the JPYT are two of the most sensitive currencies to moves in US interest rates although respective central bank risk is in the opposite direction. . The SNB is seen as the most likely CB to cut interest rates first while the market is waiting for the BoJ to finally raise rates.

[Author]

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