[SF Monedge]

Dow 421.70 and 421.20 are pivotal areas if the Index is to hold the buy side intraday in my view.

[GVI Forex]

CME FedWatch odds now 5/95 against a 50 bops hike so all but factored out for noiw.

[SF Monedge]

You had to expect UsdJpy to pull back around the open of US stocks. As long at 102.30 area holds positions should be safe with buy side positions for now but it is becoming a bit steep.

[SF Monedge]

Word to the wise: Any time there is economic data, the financial “experts” you listen to predominantly explain what the impact is and why based on their political leaning.  Today’s data was decent.  And so some are giddy as if inflation was never present after 2020 and was the devil prior to 2020.

Others are more sane.

[GVI Forex]

CME FEDWATCH: 12/88 ODDS AGAINST A 50 BPS fED RATE CUT IN NOV VS 30/70 AGAINST A CUT PRE-DATA

[GVI Forex]

AUDNZD DAILY CHART – BID AHEAD OF RBNZ

This cross has been bid ahead of next week; RBNZ meeting where a 50bps cut is expected.

Expect support on dips as long a it stays above 1.10.

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD (last 1.0971)

IF BREAK OF 1.10 HOLDS THEN SUPPORT TARGETS ARE 1.0949 AND 1.0881

USDJPY 148.25 LAST

iF BREAK OF 147.20-25 HOLDS THEBN RESISTANCE TARGET IS 149.37… SEE IF 138 CAN BECOME SUPPORT

[GVI Forex]

Big upside beat in US NFP, lower jobless rate , higher earnings = hot report

[SF Monedge]

Neural conditions in GbpUsd are decidedly weighted toward the sell side right now.   If the pair is trying to find value higher than current market I think it should run into a bit of trouble.  3250 is a bit of a price magnet.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street has weathered an edgy start to the final quarter reasonably well this week, with the September employment report now an obvious final hurdle on Friday and firmer oil prices an irritant even as a three-day U.S. ports strike ends.

As has been the case for weeks, markets are trying to find the balance between signs of persistent growth but at a pace soft enough to sustain disinflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cut hopes.

Morning Bid: Jobs and oil dominate as ports strike ends

[GVI Forex]

The Amazing Trader

Join the Global-View Trading Club and claim your 50% member benefit discount for The Amazing Trader

[GVI Forex]

As noted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook, how markets end the week will be more important than how it starts out.

The same goes for today once the dust settles on the US jobs report reaction, the question is how aggressive do traders want to position into the weekend given the risk of an Israeli reprisal vs. Iran.

As for NFP, as I noted, even a small deviation from the 149K consensus (e,g, 120K or 160K) can have an outsized knee jerk reaction.

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BOUNCE OFF THE LOW

If you are looking for the flow behind the GBPUSD bounce, look at EURGBP (lower).

Given the sharp move down yesterday, see below for retracement levels using our Fibonacci Calculator as potential resistance levels. In any case, 1.32 is pivotal (5-% at 1.3198) on the upside. Otherwise, roll the dice, NFP is up next..

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – Waiting for NFP

Bounce from 141.64 performing technically, testing the next key level at 147,20 (yesterday’s high 146.25).

On the downside, the former high around 146.50 now becomes pivotal post-NFP although only back below 145 would shift the focus back on the downside.

Re NFP, in this environment, even a small deciation from the consensus can have an oiutsized eddect.

Note, when trading USDJOY, allow for small moves through key levels, such as the one described. Same occurred on the break of 141.79.

[SF Monedge]

It is normal to assess why markets were the way they were after the close of any given day.  Today in the US session things began with a nervous tone due to the elements noted below by other GVI members.

In relation to the US Dollar one might consider that prior sessions were significantly one dimensional and  singularly directional.  That is often followed by markets going sideways or somewhat sideways in the sessions that follow and that was the case with UsdJpy.  Sterling was a little different, which makes sense considering the one dimensional selling of late.

There is significant data tomorrow  in the US session.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Brent Crude Oil 4H Chart

Crude Oil is closing it’s Bear Trap as I stated this morning .

Update: WTI Crude Oil Closes Up More than 5% After Biden Says Discussing Attack on Iran’s Oil Sector

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday, climbing for a third-straight day after U.S. President Joe Biden said the United States and Israel are discussing an attack on Iran’s oil sector to retaliate for this week’s attack on Israel.

Both Israel and the United States said they plan to retaliate after Iran attacked Israel with 180 missiles.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA

Nvidia Shares Are Moving Higher: What’s Happening?
NVIDIA Corp.  NVDA shares are climbing Thursday. On Wednesday, CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the company’s highly anticipated Blackwell chips are in full production.

The Details:

Huang appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime on Wednesday and said Nvidia’s Blackwell chips are in production and in high-demand.

“Blackwell is in full production, Blackwell is as planned, and the demand for Blackwell is insane,” the Nvidia CEO said. “Everyone wants to have the most, and everyone wants to be first.”

[Belgrade Bobby]

Tesla TSLA

TSLA: Tesla Stock Skids After Q3 Deliveries Narrowly Beat Mid-Range Expectations

Tesla shares drop 3.5%.

Company delivers 462,890 cars.

Growth is 515,000 units sold in Q4.

EV maker shipped 462,890 vehicles in the September quarter but failed to top the high-end of Wall Street’s expectations. Shares fell 3.5%.

Tesla stock  TSLA skittered 3.5% Wednesday after a lackluster delivery number. The EV maker reported third-quarter deliveries of 462,890. It managed to hit above the mid-range consensus views of 462,000 but fell short of meeting the high-end calls for 469,828 vehicles. The Elon Musk-led company had issued its own guidance of 461,978 units shipped globally.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq 100 – NDX

Wall St set for lower open; jobs data, Middle East conflict in focus

Weekly jobless claims at 225,000

September ISM non-manufacturing data due at 10 a.m. ET

Levi Strauss tumbles after saying it is exploring unit sale

East, Gulf coast workers’ strike enters third day

Futures off: Dow 0.28%, S&P 500 0.38%, Nasdaq 0.29%

Wall Street was poised to open slightly lower on Thursday after a moderate rise in jobless claims sparked worries about the health of the labor market, while cautious investors kept an eye on the Middle East for any escalation in hostilities.

[Belgrade Bobby]

S&P 500 – SPX

S&P 500 Falls 21.85 Points (0.38%)

Indexes ease with U.S. jobs report ahead, Middle East in focus
Weekly jobless claims at 225,000

US service sector activity accelerates to 1-1/2-year high

East, Gulf coast workers’ strike enters third day

Indexes: Dow down 0.6%, S&P 500 off 0.38%, Nasdaq down 0.2%

Major U.S. stock indexes were lower on Thursday afternoon ahead of Friday’s monthly U.S. payrolls report and as investors kept a watchful eye on the growing conflict in Middle East.

[Author]

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