[Mtl JP]

cnbc’ trumpet
“European Central Bank set to cut interest rates just days before the Fed’s big decision”

so what are you gonna do with it,
how are you going to trade it grasshopper ?

[Mtl JP]

US 10-yr Yield | 3:36 AM EDT
3.616%
–
what is that watson ?

US economy going the way of a morning turd
on economy’s impottant indicators: GDP, job turfings and type of new job creation and … price inflation
the rate may be coming down somewhat BUT inflation is cumulative so the APPARENT cost of goods and services keeps going up.

[SF Monedge]

UsdJpy 141.70 or so could be a low for a while.  Not my favorite idea to go long so I will only be short on pull ups.

[SF Monedge]

Yen futures have barely budged during the UsdJpy debate volatility after over an hour.

[GVI Forex]

Using what I call AT (Amazing Trader) logic, key levels are the last key low that preceded a new high or the last key high that preceded a new low.

What I mean by preceding low or high is AT line.

If you look at this daily EURUSD chart, there were no red AT lines from 1.0949 => 1.1201.
This makes 1.0949 the preceding line and the key one on this chart.

The same logic can be used for shorter time frame trends, which I call AT ladders.

But in any case, you can see why 1.0949 was more important than 1.1026 on a daily chart.

[GVI Forex]

It is hard to write about tonight’s U.S. presidential TV debate without expressing a political view but I will give it a try.

Trump vs. Harris Debate: Will Markets React?

 

[SF Monedge]

I am either catching UsdJpy perfectly or the market is not searching to rebalance and goes back to the lows.  One of the two.

[SF Monedge]

If It goes the way it is behaving UsdJpy should see 145.25 again in coming days and the probabilities we have already seen the bottom the other day.  I was long yesterday in NY and sold in late Asia and am now getting long again.

The US debate is the wild card.

[GVI Forex]

EURGBP 15 MINUTE CHART – HOW TO USE CROSSES TO TRADE SPOT FOREX
Note how EURUSD lost the bid (last at 1.1020) after EURGBP met resistance (at the blue AT line)

[GVI Forex]

FWIW A firmer EURGBP is so far keeping EURUSD from breaking 1.1026.

GBPUSD weighed down by a firmer EURGBP and weaker GBPJPY but still above its 1.3057 intra-day low.

[GVI Forex]

If looking for the current driver, it is buy orders for JPY on its crosses despite a modest risk on for stocks.

[GVI Forex]

USDX 4 HOUR CHARt – EURUSD PROXY

Using USDX as a proxy for the EURUSD (57.6% of the index), it would probably need to get through 101.80 to suggest a EURUSD run at 1.10 and 102.00 for the index.

Key levels on this chart are at 101.20 and 102.00

[Belgrade Bobby]

 

Intraday Trading Techniques – Part 2

 

As explained in previous lesson, determining the daily / 4h chart direction will give you a more clear view on intraday actions.

Let me repeat once again :

It has been said many times: “The trend is your friend.”b The question is, how does one find the trend? It often comes down to using various indicators to help determine which way a market has been moving, and thus where it might go next. One of the most popular to use to help determine this information is the moving average.

When the price of the market stays below the moving average, then the pair is said to be in a downtrend.
When it is above the moving average, it is said to be in an uptrend. Both are movements that can potentially be capitalized on, but the trader needs to be aware of how the different trends should impact their trades.

The best recommendation from most experienced traders is that a trade should be placed in line with the prevailing trend.

There is no heroism in placing a trade that goes hard against the trend. This is actually a recipe for disaster in most scenarios, and it is a good way to lose money.

Don’t Get Faked Out

Try not to get too caught up in whether the price is just above or just below the moving average. Sometimes, using the moving averages alone is too simplistic.

There is one way to have a high probability of any given trade :

Always wait for the confirmation – in the case of Moving Averages it is most of the time two consecutive closings of bars ( above or below the MA’s)

Most of the traders will tell you to use additional Indicators in confirming the move, but I am always for a Simple solutions :

If you start combining too many different indicators, you are going to end up frustrated and missing trades

You will start to hang on your opinion , trying to find an indicator that supports it – The Disaster

You better arrange your Stop Loss in line with Profit Target and Risk/Reward Ratio and never commit too much of your current margin to just one trade.

That way, you have an upper hand and as long as your Probability in any given trade is above 50% , you can’t miss it.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Markets have recovered their poise this week on a potent mix of U.S. ‘soft landing’ hopes and interest rate cut speculation and now turn their attention back to U.S. politics ahead of Tuesday’s big TV debate.

Morning Bid: Calm returns as TV debate eyed, China angst

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – BACK INTO 142-144/145?

Consolidating in a range bounded by 142.63-143.78

Above 143.78 would put 144.04-22 (key levels) at risk

A case can be made for a higher low BUT only if 144.22 is taken out,

Below 142.63 would put 142 and below at risk.

[GVI Forex]

Take a look at this daily EURUSD chart and identify the level that would fully negate the upside move.

Is it 1.1026 or 1.0949?

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD DAILY CHART

No change from what was posted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook other than while within 1.10-1.11, 1.1050 will set its trading bias.

From the Weekly FX Chart Outlook
‘
Last week I said the EURUSD range was 1.10-1.12 with 1.11 setting the trading bias.

Well, that didn’t change after a whipsaw end to the week following the US jobs report

Looking at this daily chart, it would take a break of 1.0949 to fully negate the upside risk.

Highlight: ECB decision on Thursday

[GVI Forex]

US500 DAILY CHART – Retracement

As markets seem on hold waiting for tonight’s US presidential debate, equities remain a focus as a measure of the risk on/risk off mood.

Looking at this chart, despite the impressive rebound yesterday, moves to the upside are to be treated as a retracement unless 5522 is taken out.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr Yield | 5:25 AM EDT
3.708%

DLRx 101.59

market still looking discombobulated from last NFP and fed reserve member yakkings

Is the FED gang pleased with itself ?
I think it is

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports : 1.10300 , 1.10150 & 1.10000

Resistances : 1.10550 , 1.10700 & 1.10900

Pair needs to take out 1.10300 to continue the slide, or we’ll be seeing change of this trend and start moving Up again.

[Author]

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