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To keep it simple
EURUSD upside is limited a long as it trade below 1.10
USDJPY downside is limited if it can stay above 148 but scaled down interest as long a it is above 147.20
Geopolitical risks ahead of the weekend.
Monday Oct 7 is the one year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, so another reason to be cautious into the weekend.
GVI – 2:13 …….. I was just about to post something to that effect. The activity in UsdJpy is reflecting that with a return so far to what amounts to sideways activity in both spot and in futures and in options and forwards and other metrics. Someone would have a difficult time convincing me we are headed into a rose garden this Friday. Not to sound pessimistic.
Word to the wise: Any time there is economic data, the financial “experts” you listen to predominantly explain what the impact is and why based on their political leaning. Today’s data was decent. And so some are giddy as if inflation was never present after 2020 and was the devil prior to 2020.
Others are more sane.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Wall Street has weathered an edgy start to the final quarter reasonably well this week, with the September employment report now an obvious final hurdle on Friday and firmer oil prices an irritant even as a three-day U.S. ports strike ends.
As has been the case for weeks, markets are trying to find the balance between signs of persistent growth but at a pace soft enough to sustain disinflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cut hopes.
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As noted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook, how markets end the week will be more important than how it starts out.
The same goes for today once the dust settles on the US jobs report reaction, the question is how aggressive do traders want to position into the weekend given the risk of an Israeli reprisal vs. Iran.
As for NFP, as I noted, even a small deviation from the 149K consensus (e,g, 120K or 160K) can have an outsized knee jerk reaction.
GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BOUNCE OFF THE LOW
If you are looking for the flow behind the GBPUSD bounce, look at EURGBP (lower).
Given the sharp move down yesterday, see below for retracement levels using our Fibonacci Calculator as potential resistance levels. In any case, 1.32 is pivotal (5-% at 1.3198) on the upside. Otherwise, roll the dice, NFP is up next..
USDJPY DAILY CHART – Waiting for NFP
Bounce from 141.64 performing technically, testing the next key level at 147,20 (yesterday’s high 146.25).
On the downside, the former high around 146.50 now becomes pivotal post-NFP although only back below 145 would shift the focus back on the downside.
Re NFP, in this environment, even a small deciation from the consensus can have an oiutsized eddect.
Note, when trading USDJOY, allow for small moves through key levels, such as the one described. Same occurred on the break of 141.79.
It is normal to assess why markets were the way they were after the close of any given day. Today in the US session things began with a nervous tone due to the elements noted below by other GVI members.
In relation to the US Dollar one might consider that prior sessions were significantly one dimensional and singularly directional. That is often followed by markets going sideways or somewhat sideways in the sessions that follow and that was the case with UsdJpy. Sterling was a little different, which makes sense considering the one dimensional selling of late.
There is significant data tomorrow in the US session.
Brent Crude Oil 4H Chart
Crude Oil is closing it’s Bear Trap as I stated this morning .
Update: WTI Crude Oil Closes Up More than 5% After Biden Says Discussing Attack on Iran’s Oil Sector
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday, climbing for a third-straight day after U.S. President Joe Biden said the United States and Israel are discussing an attack on Iran’s oil sector to retaliate for this week’s attack on Israel.
Both Israel and the United States said they plan to retaliate after Iran attacked Israel with 180 missiles.
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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