A friend of mine passes along this thought- Improvements in inflation are largely due to drops in energy. Those are most likely based and done at current levels. Peak in rates was never restrictive enough to slow things down (my thought on that is higher rates only matter in rate sensitive sectors so largely benign. But speaking of rate sensitive sectors watch out for commercial real estate). Going forward watch for rates to retest the highs of last year (his thoughts again- He-s uber bearish bonds), stocks have probably seen their highs at these levels for the next 3-6 months especially with big tech earnings behind now. Fx he didn’t have much conviction other than it’s hard to be bearish the usd against this backdrop. He thinks no rate cuts from the Fed this year. fwiw….
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