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COMING UP: Data: German Trade Balance (Aug), US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/03), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3)
Events: ECB Minutes (Sep), UK Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election
Speakers: US President Trump; ECB’s Lane; BoE’s Greene, Bailey, Lombardelli; Fed’s Waller, Kashkari, Musalem
Supply: Japan, US Earnings: PepsiCo
US Market Wrap: Stocks slide and yield curve steepens as oil reverses from peaks
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries steepen, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold down
Market Update: Indices
Retracements not going far enough to trigger follow through,with US500 pausing above 61.8% and NAS100 above 38.2%.
Subsequent bounces keep 7800 and 31K as pivotal in setting respective trading tones.
Otherwise, consolidation unless record highs (7845 and 31385) or retracement lows (see charts) are taken out.
FOMC Minutes: All participants supported the 25bps hike in September and most assessed another increase would likely be appropriate by end of year,,,Little market reaction…Full update on Source: Try Newsquawk.com
Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days
BTCUSD vs. ETHUSD (Daily): Which is more vulnerable?
BTCUSD: On the defensive but holding above its 3+ week range low at 82465 to keep downside in check.
ETHUSD: In a more vulnerable position with its 3+ week range low (2619) broken and needing to stay above 2560, being pivoted (low 2549) to keep risk away from 2352.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: One day wonder?
Was this a one day (new record high) wonder?
2 blue AT lines drawn off the record high indicate potential for at least a pause and shift in risk towards a retracement. Low so far has paused above the 50% level.
In any case, 7800 is pivotal…back above it would be needed to cool the risk…while below keeps downside at risk.
USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX DAILY: Would need to see EURUSD make a firm break of 1.1161 (1.1164 low) for USDX to make a run at its 102.94 high
[MARKET UPDATE] US 10-year Treasury yield rises to 5.3496%, its highest level since 2002; seeing broad Dollar strength, to detriment of global FX peers, and spot gold tumbles to underneath USD 4.1k/oz (Newsquawk)
US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: Mag-7, INTC, STZ, UAA, HESM, SPCX, ZIM, BKH, BULL, NEOG
ES -0.5% NQ -0.8% RTY -0.8%
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)This article is worth reading with both US and longer-term global bond yields (note France) rising sharply today, weighing on risk with ripple effects in stocks, metals, cryptos while lifting the dollar.
Are Bond Vigilantes Waking Up as Long-Term Treasury Yields Surge?
Market Update: Fickle convictions
Firmer oil => firmer yields => stocks losing steam?
USDCAD: Retracement off 1.4293 pausing above 1.42, which needs to hold to contain the downside… above 1.4233 needed to slow risk of down moimentum building
US500: Lower highs bear watching along with 7800
XBRUSD: Futures trading above $100 (last $101.67)
EURUSD 4 HOUR: Focus back to 1.12
French yields up (after a relief dip yesterday) => EUR down (vs crosses as well) so keep an eye on whether this correlation continues.
EURUSD: Up momentum broken, 1.12 clearly pivotal in setting its tone. damage not fatal unless 1.1161 is broken, resistance at 1.1203, 1.1220-40
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