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Market Update: Metals
XAUUSD: The Power of “50” is being put to a test with a bounce from just above it (low 3852). While downside is in check while the low holds, it would take a move back above 4000 to negate this episode to the downside. Meanwhile, 3900 will be pivotal with the intra-day high at 3922.
XAGUSD: Keeping this one simple with the focus on 50.00 as this level will dictate whether there is more to go on the downside. Momentum pointed down unless 50.79 is taken out.
Keep a eye on US bond yields as they have been a weight on the metals complex.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading mixed while holding firm ahead of the release of US Oct PPI with attention heightened by the hotter CPI reported this week .This saw a sharp rise in US bond yields that put a 50bps Fed rate hike (current odds 12%) on the table. CHF, AUD and NZD are the underperformers.
EURUSD: 1.1050 will dictate whether there will be a run at 1.10. Upside limied unless 1.11 is regained. Current range 1.1045-73.
USDJPY: 160 will dictate whether there will be a run higher after a brief spike above it paused well shy of the key 160.38 level. Supports below 160 are at 159.65, 159.30.
GBPUSD: Focus on 1,3200-20 following the breakdown through 1.3272 with major 1.3136 support below it, Upside capped while 1.3282 holds on top.
USDCAD: Consolidating with a bid while above 1.4200 that faces a najor obstacle at 1.4300.
USDCHF: Breakout above .8313 has put major ..8395 resistance at risk.
AUDUSD: Trade vs. .6800 will dictate how far the downside will follow through after the breakdown below .6832 (weekly support)
A very timely article
The Power of 50: How Round Numbers Shape Trading Sentiment
One of the keys to trading is keeping emotions out of your decisions. For the most part, that is the way to go. But there is one exception worth watching. Understanding how other traders respond emotionally to certain prices, such as round numbers in trading, can help you read the market…READ MORE
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR (CFD): Encouraging but not yet enough
While the move back above 28000 is encouraging (keeps a bid while above it), failure to take out 28587 (near double top) leaves it dependent on 27909 along with the up trendline holding to avoid a shift in risk to key 27405 support
Reports indicate Anthropic’s IPO is about six times oversubscribed
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR (CFD): Struggling to extend recovery
Struggling to build further up momentum after upside stalled at 7652, which contained thoughts of the key 7718 level.
On the downside, needs to hold the trendline and 7550 to keep the focus pointed higher to avoid exposing 7500 and the key 7469 low
XAUUSD WEEKLY: Breaking down
GOLD crumbling under the weight of rising US bond yields (10 year last at 5.10%) with a new low (3852) following the break of 3870.(prior low).
Going strictly by the weekly chart, there is a giant void below 3883 so keep an eye on whether this becomes resistance. Only back above 3870-3883-3917 would postpone the risk.
In any case, in the absence of nearby support, use 3850 (“50” level) as pivotal and 3800 (round number) as key support.
US500 4 HOUR (CFDS): Dueling trendlines
Failure at the descending trendline has put the focus on the downside although contained while above the uptrendline (intra-day low 7550).
Below the ascending trendline would weaken the upside risk and expose 7469, which needs to hold to prevent a down episode from taking over.
Back above 7610 is needed to shift the focus back to the high.
\NAS99 4 HOUR (CFD): Watch 28000
Nvidia, while still down, has come off its low after the initial reaction to the CEO news and this, in turn, has lifted the NAS100 back above 28000.
While regaining 28024+ eases downside pressure, it would take a move above 28587 to establish a new high for the episode.
Supports: 27911, Trendline and 27405.
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR: Breakdown but not yet fatal
As noted yesterday, so far 4000 has been tested and held but bulls losing control and need to stay above 4000 or face a gap in support to 3917.
Chart looks like a textbook with the break of 4013 confirming a down episode and exposing 3917 although a pause above it (low 3924) means damage to higher lows (3 red lines) not yet fatal.
In any case, XAUUSD stays more on the defensive unless 4000-40013 is regained.
When Every Pullback Fails: How to Trade a Liquidating Market
A market falls sharply. You buy what looks like a bargain. Prices bounce briefly, then selling resumes and another low appears. This is where knowing how to trade a liquidating market pays off… READ MORE
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