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dilluting betting options…
WSJ Oct. 12, 2024
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Soft Landing or Hard? Bank Results Show Path to No Landing
Comments from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo suggest the economy could stay airborne.
… “Rather than the economy slowing gradually or rapidly, it might actually be poised to keep growing as it is, at a moderate or better pace. Bank executives’ recent comments have suggested that some of the recent indicators of slowing for consumers and businesses might be more echoes of the past than visions of the future.” …
now we have all three possibilities out in the light
JP – Per CNBC:
{Fed officials in recent days have expressed confidence that inflation is heading back to target even though some aspects, such as shelter, food and vehicle costs, have held stubbornly higher.}
You mean the things that actually count?
Now. If you oh so trustworthy politicians, sorry I meant Fed officials, can somehow not just reduce the level of inflation within the historically horrid increases to LESS THAN where it started 4 years ago that occurred and not just the increase above those levels now you’re talking.
And again, the one’s that count also. Not just the almost no impact items you want people to hear that have somewhat stabilized in their nasty trajectory.
I can’t believe any fund manager worth their salt puts any tangible weight in the economic data from this administration and their proxies.
My eggs went from $2.39 to $6.49 and counting without a glimpse of reversal.
Of the forward rates I observe, UsdJpy has the strongest conviction, which is toward the sell side. The others are mainly stronger in the further out contracts and weaker in the nearby’s indicating a bit of a mix early in the session. Bear in mind it quite often takes some time for this element to work its way through markets, but that is the condition and it changes daily.
Noting a disconnect between S&P and Dow internals at the open with S/P sell side activity present and not as much in Dow. Euro correlates more strongly with Dow than S&P. I had an arrogant genius try to convince me years ago that only S&P was the only thing that mattered other than bonds. Arrogance and ignorance are not a good mix.
Aud is on the back foot a bit pre-US open as are a few others in terms of flows but not necessarily strength of conviction, but that is the condition for the moment in my view. Am interested to see what the report from Canada is at the start of the next hour with relation to business outlook survey. Canada has been doing a fairly good job if I am not missing something.
From the Reuter Morning Bid report
But the picture encouraged doubts about whether the Fed will cut again in November, with some Fed officials clearly wavering.
The relatively hawkish Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic told the Wall Street Journal he was considering a pause until the data fog lifted a bit. “Maybe we should take a pause in November. I’m definitely open to that.”
While other Fed officials indicated further easing was still in store, futures remain only just over 80% priced for another quarter point rate cut on November 7.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Even though futures pricing had already turned queasy before the sticky September inflation report on Thursday, the prospect of the Federal Reserve skipping another interest rate cut next month has now become part of the mix.
An aggravating miss on U.S. consumer price readings for last month, which saw the annual core inflation rate unexpectedly tick higher to 3.3%, was partly offset by a jump in weekly jobless claims amid distortions from recent strikes and storms.
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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