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XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR: Breakdown but not yet fatal
As noted yesterday, so far 4000 has been tested and held but bulls losing control and need to stay above 4000 or face a gap in support to 3917.
Chart looks like a textbook with the break of 4013 confirming a down episode and exposing 3917 although a pause above it (low 3924) means damage to higher lows (3 red lines) not yet fatal.
In any case, XAUUSD stays more on the defensive unless 4000-40013 is regained.
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US500 4 HOUR (CFD): Obstacle to 7718
What caught my eye is not only US500 extending its high but its pause around the 4 hour trendline, which needs to be broken along with 7648 to put 7718 in play. The significance of 7718 is that it is the last significant high before the low at 7295, which needs to be broken to confirm the end of the move to the downside and put bulls in control. Support at 7576-7600 needs to hold to keep a bid but only sub-7459 would negate the current up episode.
USDJPY 4 HOUR: 160 LOOMS
USDJPY will be a focus following the breakout of a 2+ month range top at 159.03 put 160 on the radar. While talk will be whether the BOJ looks to defend 160 (watch for verbal intervention), the level it does not want to see broken is 160.38. Othewrwise, only sub 159 would dent the risk.
EURUSD WEEKLY: Long standing target
It seems eons ago that Bobby and I both pointed out 1.1065 as a potential target. The break to a new low has put it on the radar but that would depend on whether 1.1104 becomes resistance. If not, then needs to trade below 1.1131 to stay offered. A firm break of 1.10965 would put 1.10 on the map.
USDJPY DAILY: Trying for a breakout
As noted yesterday, the break of a 7-day pivot around 158 sent a bullish signal. The break of this pattern along with higher US bond yields and a generally firmer USD made the BoJ’s job a lot more difficult if it chose to defend 159.03, which has been the top of the range since the start of September. Should the break above 159.03 be extended, there is a clear path to 160 although a nervous one given the intervention threat. Current supports; 158.65-75.
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