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Market Update (4 Hour)
Crude oil coming off its low following a plunge yesterday. has put glpabl markets in a wait-and-see mode.
EURUSD: Lower high would need to break 1.1213Â to turn it into anything more than a pause to the upside and shift the risk back to 1.1180-00. NAS100 lagging as AI memory names weighing.
US500: Focus on 7700 after holding a test of the 7664 breakout level yesterday, which needs to hold to keep a bid.
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
US30 (DJIA) DAILY (CFD): Outperforming
After outperforming yesterday with the best post-midterm day performance in 44 years, US30 is so far doing the same today.
This has put it into a critical zone with 53820 and 54245 as obstacles to the record 54662 high.
On this chart, needs to hold above 52949 to keep a bid pointed at key levels.
GBPUSD 4 HOUR: Waiting for the BoE
With a rate hike widely expected, the reaction to the expected event will be more important than the headline.
On the upside, 1.3500-05 is clearly the obstacle while 1.3450ish is the pivotal level on the downside although it would take a break of 1.3395 to negate the upside risk.
Forex Market Snapshot
Markets are still digesting the Blue Tsunami win in the US midterms, which saw oil crumble, US bond yields fall (flatter curve) and the dollar ease but with limited follow through.
On Thursday, the dollar tested its downside again but so far again with limited follow through.
- EURUSD paused just below Wed’s 1.1273 high.
- GBPUSD backed off after another test of 1.35 ahead of the BoE rate decision.
- USDJPY is back above 158 after again finding support below it, raising a question whether or not it is trading bid in an offered market.
- Current outperformers: NZD and CAD
Bank of EnGland Monetary Pol;icy Announcement (Thursday)
Start of a tightening cycle?
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR (CFD): Reversal or not?
Having more than completed a 61.9% retracement (7717 high vs. 7698 FIBO), the question is whether it signals a reversal of or just a correction that has broken momentum to the downside.
While the jury is out, I would like to see the NAS100 confirm before jumping to conclusions.
In any case, 7700 is likely pivotal with 7664 Â (former resistance) needing to hold to keep a bid.
How to treat US500 after more than completing a 61.8% retracement
The question at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is whether the break can hold. If a currency pair or any asset pushes through the level and stays beyond it, the original trend has already given back nearly two-thirds of the move. That’s when I reassess the pullback trade and ask whether I’m looking at a deeper correction or the early stages of a reversal
EURUSD DAILY: 1.12 back in playt
Pause below 1.1276 (high 1.1274), a key level cited earlier, has capped its upside to maintain the current range. Selling pressure is coming out of a weaker EURFBP where the market is having more trouble absorbing the EUR sell side (GBPUSD still trading above 1.3448, also cited earlier) ahead of tomorrow’s BoE meeting. To keep the downside contained, 1.1200 needs to hold. Bottom line selling driven vs GBP and not USD
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR (CFD): Outside day
US midterm whipsaw has broken momentum to the downside and taken out 7664 (confirms the low is in). Next is 7700, (around a 61.8% FIBO). tested and which needs a firm break to make this more than a retracement.
On the downside, needs to hold above 7664 for a strong bid
Why (my) levels matter (bounce off support to test resistance…see chart)
EURUSD 1.1263 => 1.1237 => 1.1270 Posted earlier… EURUSD 4 HOUR: Resistance noted Extending this week’s high and now faces key resistance at 1.1269 (4 hour) and 1.1276 (daily) ….support… 1.1222-37 blocking a shift in focus back to 1.12.
This historical trend has a 100% track record but…
Will History Repeat and U.S. Stocks Rally After the Midterms?
GBPUSD DAILY: Watch 1.35
While chart shows 1.3568 as the next target,1.3500 is the current obstacle with some hesitation seen just below it.
On the downside, keeps a bid as long as trade is above this week’s former high at 1.3448 but upside contained unless 1.35 is taken out.
Note, next key event is the BoE rate decision on Thursday.
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