A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Record stock market highs have lit up across the world once again – though not yet for the usual suspects in the S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab and Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab.
Despite a rare stumble for the artificial intelligence theme after Nvidia’s results underwhelmed this week, the rest of the stock market complex shrugged it off and has instead lapped up a tasty diet of brisk economic growth along with falling inflation and interest rates.
Key times today
12:30 GMT US PCE (Fed’s favored inflation indicator)
15:00 GMT London 4 PM (month end) fixing
In between is the Chicago PMI and U of M final consumer sentiment
Note US jobless data seems to be the greater focus over inflation now that the Fed ha signaled a shift to rate cuts.
See our Economic Calendar
Npte also, US market will be thin and likely thin further ahead of the long Labor Day weekend.
What ate FX rebalancing flies?
FX rebalancing flows are large-scale institutional transactions that involve buying and selling assets in a portfolio to maintain a desired asset allocation. These flows are often seen at the end of the month, and their impact is usually most felt near the 4 PM London fix on the last trading day.
AI Overview
To detail the trade I was long from 144.28 and was confident 145.25 would be seen with t a ceiling of EITHER 145.50 or 145.60 on over-reach. Failed to take the money around 145.40 to be safe, endured the pullback, loaded up elsewhere in conjunction with the AudUsd positioning I mentioned coming into the NY session so was just fine but that is quite a trim on gains by being impatient and not reacting aggressively enough in the same opera.
If you are not swimming in money precision is important. I hope this helps novices or anyone else for me to share my perspective as a former CEO of an investment firm. None of us are perfect and all of us face the same market.
I was reminded today to go with your instinct if it is based on experience as I almost blew a very strong gain in UsdJpy. I am confident those of you who observe my posts recognize how precise I can be, this time fortunately it was not a loss but a sound trimming of the tree of a gain. I remain long UsdJpy into Asia (from pre-US GDP-which was a bit aggressive) but see a horizon for that in the future, not necessarily tonight in the Asian session.
In short, a pullback on the longs was stickier than usual and went the distance. Unless you are taking a position and if you are trading session to session you take the money when your parameters are met and incorporate patience for the market to settle for another shot of the basketball.
I hope commenting on trading acumen is helpful.
JP- your input helped once again as always.
USDJPY failed to hold above 145.50 (high 145.55)
US500 hit a wall at 5650
EURUSD paused above 1.1050 (low 1.1055)
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Undocumented immigrants in California could be eligible for state assistance in buying a home under a bill the state Legislature sent to Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom Wednesday.
When Harris is made President I look forward to trading Peso more after the US adopts it as the national currency.
© 2024 Global View