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8/21/14 20:04
Target   3-Mo
2.50 Aust 2.96
0.10 Japan 0.13
0.50 U.K. 0.56
0.15 E-Z 0.15
0.00 Switz 0.02
1.00 Cda 1.17
0.25 U.S. 0.23
2-YR % bp chg
Aust 2.58 #REF!
Japan 0.08 #REF!
U.K. 0.72 #REF!
E-Z -0.01 #REF!
Switz 0.00 #REF!
Cda 1.09 #REF!
U.S. 0.47 #REF!
   
10-YR % bp chg
Aust 3.47 #REF!
Japan 0.53 #REF!
U.K. 2.41 #REF!
E-Z 0.99 #REF!
Switz 0.47 #REF!
Cda 2.10 #REF!
U.S. 2.40 #REF!

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EXCLUSIVE: Countdown to Next Data News

Economic Calendar

22/08/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y Cons: n/a Last: 1.80%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm Cons: 0.20% Last: 0.10%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy Cons: 2.20% Last: 2.40%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Retail Sales Cons: 0.40% Last: 0.70%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Sales x-autos Cons: n/a Last: 0.10%

U.S. Data Solid. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker
August 22, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a RISK-ON mild posture late in Europe on Thursday. Flash PMI data in the Fare East and Europe were been mixed to slightly weaker than forecast. U.S. headline data were broadly stronger than forecast. EURUSD has been holding below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have turned lower from earlier ahead of Draghi on Friday. The 10-yr bund is 0.99% 0bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are down.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.41%  -1bp. I now expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, -1bp. A major focus is an expected  dovish Fed Char Yellen's speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot is 2.40%. I'm not  sure Yellen will be as dovish  as hoped for.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS:, CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Fed's Yellen, EZ- ECB's Draghi
  • Friday sees Canadian inflation and Retail Sales data. Also Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • U.S. data on Friday were broadly better than expected.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell slightly back below the 300K line. The Markit Mfg PMI surged higher, Existing Homes sales gained strongly, while Leading Indicators and Philly Fed Index both outperformed expectations.
  • In the Eurozone, the flash EZ manufacturing PMIs all weakened ; key Services PMIs fell as well except in France.U.K. Retail Sales mostly mixed street estimates.
  • The August China HSBC was a disappointment as it fell. The new flash Japanese PMI improved.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole


FOREX CALENDAR
Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
22/08/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.80%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm 0.20% 0.10%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy 2.20% 2.40%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Retail Sales 0.40% 0.70%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Sales x-autos n/a 0.10%
22/08/14 14:00 A FRB Yellen Jackson Hole n/a n/a
22/08/14 18:30 A EZ Draghi Jackson Hole n/a n/a
22/08/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a
25/08/14 0:00 MONDAY
25/08/14 0:00 GB Holiday n/a n/a
25/08/14 8:00 A DE IFO Climate n/a n/a
25/08/14 8:00 A DE IFO Current n/a n/a
25/08/14 8:00 A DE IFO Expectations n/a n/a
25/08/14 14:00 B US New Home Sales n/a n/a


calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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