A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
“Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:
* US Q2 GDP, weekly jobless claims, June durable goods orders, July Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey”
They should, I agree. Just that – imho – US Q2 GDP to be likely the least impactful on traders for direction.
But I have been wrong too, I am not perfect
XAUUSD DAILY CHART – XAUJPY?
If we assume that carry trade unwinds are driving the market, then a drop in XAUUSD makes more sense than a rise as this has been a perfect candidate for carry trades.
Key daily support 2349
Key moving averages are still out of range but the 200 4 hour mva is at 2360 currently,
2400 will remain pivotal.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
The worst day for the S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab since 2022 and mounting central bank easing bets suggest markets’ serene ‘soft landing’ scenario is being questioned as China growth worries and U.S. election risks mount.
Morning Bid: Growth angst or air pocket? Stocks nurse losses
USDJPY DAILY CHART – 150?
SLIDE CONTINUES WITH THE PIVOTAL 152 LEVEL LOOMING – BELOW IT PUTS 150 ON THE RADAR
CARRY TRADE UNWINDS FUELING THE MOVE AFTER BOJ INTERVENTIONS FINALLY TIPPED THE SCALES
KEY LEVELS:
151.84
151.50 = 200 DAY MVA
RETRACEMENT LEVELS FROM OUR FIBONACCI CALCULATOR (LIGHT TYPE IS HOW IT APPEARS)
AUDUSD DAILY CHART – .6500 LOOMS
Current patterm (which I have been noting) 9 down days in a row
Key supports are a6 .6464 and .6361
.6500 may become important if it holds but depends on whether there is more selling in AUDJPY
Technical damage: It closed below the 100 day mva yesterday (blue) and has broken below the 200 day mva today.
To slow the risk, AUDJPY needs to find support and the 200 day mva, at a minimum would need to be recovered,
AUDJPY DAILY CHART UNWIND CONTINUES
Worth noting:
AUDJPY is currently down 1.9%
Currently below the 200 day mva (orange line)
Current pattern: 11 down days in a row
There is a key support zone from .8698-.9775
Given the divergence with USDJOY, one can assume that there have been major iquidtaions oif AUDJOY carry trades.
Watch the ckoise vs the 2090 day mva
USDJPY DAILY CHART – ANOTHER NEW LOW
153.00 JUST TRADED AND AS i HAVE BEEN NOTING, BIG FIGURES WILL LIKELY BE AS IMPORTANT AS TECHNICAL LEVELS.
AS YOU CAN SEE BY THIS CHART, THERE IS A VOID UNTILK 151,84, WITH THE KEY BIG FIGURE 152 STANDING INFRONT OF IT.
INTRA-DAY 153 IS NOW THE KEY LEVEL.
ONLY BACK ABOVE 154.05 WOULD PUT 155 BACK ON THE RADAR.
The wait is on for US GDP and PCE
THU: CBR Announcement, CBRT Announcement; EZ M3 (Jun), German Ifo (Jul), US Durable Goods (Jun), GDP Advance & PCE (Q2), IJC (20th Jul)
NAS100 DAILY CHART – TRENDLKINE BROKEN
A HIGHLIGHT WAS THE DAILY TRENDLINE BREAK SO WATCH HOW IT TRADES VS, IT TOMORROW
See below for retracement levels using our Fibonacci Calculator
Nasdaq 100 – NDX
Nasdaq hits one-month low as Tesla, Alphabet knock megacaps down
KEY POINTS:
S&P 500, Dow hit multi-week lows
Visa falls after missing revenue growth forecasts
AT&T rises after beating subscriber-addition estimates
Enphase Energy up after results
Indexes down: Dow 0.85%, S&P 1.61%, Nasdaq 2.55%
The Nasdaq plummeted to a one-month low on Wednesday after Tesla and Alphabet disappointed with lackluster earnings, prompting investors to question if the Big Tech and AI-fueled 2024 equity rally was sustainable in the long run.
I believe we should see Bitcoin futures at 6040 in coming weeks though there is decent potential to see 6800 or higher prior. Enjoyed the Ether ETF rolling out the other day. Any participation in crypto on my part at this stage is purely speculative due to them not yet being mature instruments. I realize that upsets the average GenZ and Millennial anarchist who wants them to replace to US Dollar so they can feel like they changed the world and are oh so smart, but those are just the facts. They should transform to being more viable financial instruments over time like moth larvae somewhat in around 2 years from now. Ultimately Stablecoin will dominate the pool of fringe crypto’s in various respects.
On another note I like the buy side of Gold stocks and if you don’t have much money then GROY (Gold Rty Group) from the 1.30’s or perhaps even 1.40’s is decent R/R you can live with even if it doesn’t go your way right away.
AMC Stock Alert: AMC Previews Revenue Drop, Pivot to Net Loss for Q2
Trading of AMC Entertainment AMC stock was briefly halted this morning following the release of its preliminary second-quarter earnings. It was resumed at 9:43 ET, and, as of this writing, AMC stock is currently about 7% down.
AMC posted revenue of $1.03 billion, down 23.54% from $1.347 billion a year ago. Preliminary revenue was in line with the consensus analyst estimate of $1.03 billion.
The movie theater chain also reverted back to being an unprofitable company with a net loss of $32.8 million compared to net earnings of $8.6 million year-over-year (YOY). Diluted loss per share fell to approximately 10 cents from a diluted earnings per share of 6 cents. Analysts were expecting a GAAP EPS loss of 47 cents.
Alphabet Inc.- GOOGL
Alphabet shares hit lowest level since June 4
** Shares of Google parent Alphabet GOOG fall 5% to $172.55 in day trading, hitting their lowest since June 4
** Alphabet’s Q2 capital expenditure rose more than expected, to $13.2 bln, due to support generative AI services
** Alphabet-owned Youtube’s Q2 ad sales grew 13% versus a 21% gain in Q1
** “Investors were quick to find fault and the spotlight immediately shone on a slowdown in Google’s advertising growth”
** Alphabet reported Q2 revenue of $84.74 bln, up 14% YoY, beating analysts’ estimate of $84.17 bln – LSEG data
Tesla Inc TSLA and Google parent Alphabet Inc’s GOOG GOOGL second-quarter earnings on Tuesday failed to impress the Street and are dragging the stocks lower.
Tesla, a key Nvidia customer, reported second-quarter revenue growth of 2% year-on-year to $25.5 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $24.7 billion. EPS of $0.52 lagged the consensus estimate of $0.62.
TSLA – Tesla
Forex Forum Ad Hoc Glossary
What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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