[SF Monedge]

There was a whale order on the buy side of Gold this morning at a correlated priced of 2438.50 futures.  The delta was low enough and other metrics like forwards were strong enough to suggest it was not a hedge or profit taking.  Curves are all straight up out to Nov 26 at 2620 roughly.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

OK, we have a Clear break…finally….

Now Resistance comes at 1.08250

Supports at 1.07500 , 1.07250 & 1.06850

[SF Monedge]

Forwards in Sterling are dominant on the buy side compared to Euro being strongly tilted in favor of sellers post-data, so Sterling is remaining the favorable of the two for the buy side so far around 2810/20.

[Mtl JP]

NEXT opportunity for potential profit juicing from data calendar:
–
AU
21:30 Q2 CPI

[SF Monedge]

Post-data the transaction metrics in Euro shifted to the sell side more dominant by roughly 70%, so if the figure 8000 holds here it will really take some orders of size, quite possible it is overshoot before stabilizing for a run up, but without those orders the selling is strong.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0799

arrghh … what will it do, whiuch way will it go …
maaaa-mi maa-aah mi …

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1,0800 = Support
below: 1.0775 and 50

[Mtl JP]

Potential for some price twisting
coming up
–
10:00am:
JOLTS and
conf board consumer confidence

[GVI Forex]

It looks like JPY cross buying ahead of the BOJ is giving the UDSD support elsewhere.

By cross buying I mean buying JpY on its crosses (e.g. EURJPY selling).

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – MONIN AVERAGES

This chart summs it up:

XAUUSD trading within a band bounded by 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) moving averages.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF 5 Min Chart – 15.01.2015.

This should make you think and get some perspective when there is an Important Data/News/Central Bank decision

Almost 2.000 pips in 10 minutes, with over 1.400 Pips GAP .

This kind of development will Kill not only your margin, but yours kids college fund, take your home and your panties….

So start thinking and learning NOW.

[GVI Forex]

USDX DAILY CHART – EURUSD PROXY (57.6% of the index)

Using USDX as a EURUSD proxy, 104.76 equates to eurusd 1.0800-14 support.

Note, EURUSD appears it will break a 5 day pivot around 1.0850, which is a bearish sign and contrary to what one would expect ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorow.

Read Bobby’s eqrlier posts. He summed it up well.

[SF Monedge]

Most of my sentiments below are contra flow with orders outside of current market.

[SF Monedge]

Coming into the session I slightly prefer the sell side of Euro, the buy side more strongly in Sterling, the sell side of Yen against other pairs slightly, the buy side more strongly for Aussie, slightly prefer the buy side of Canadian vs other pairs.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

To the extent that worries about pricey tech stocks and rising AI capex spending were partly behind last week’s market shakeout, Microsoft’s quarterly update should prove a key moment later on Tuesday, just as the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting gets under way.

Morning Bid: Microsoft and job openings to hit pre-Fed vigil

[GVI Forex]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

US focus in the July 29 week will be narrowly fixed on two times: 14:00 ET on Wednesday when the FOMC releases its policy announcement and 8:30 ET on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the July employment numbers. Markets are anticipating that the FOMC statement will set the stage for a rate cut in the near future, presumably the September 17-18 meeting. For payrolls, healthy moderate growth of 180,000 is the call.

The Bank of England will announce what is expected to be a rate cut on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday but announce its reduction schedule for bond purchases. National CPI’s in Europe begin on Tuesday and will followed by Eurozone harmonised inflation data on Wednesday.

GDP’s unfold on Tuesday with first estimates for the second quarter to open with France then Germany followed by Italy and finally the Eurozone. Marginal to modest growth is generally expected.

Japanese industrial production on Wednesday is expected to fall steeply reflecting new safety test issues in the auto industry. A sleeper in the week but a report that should never be overlooked because of its policy implications is the quarterly US employment cost index on Wednesday. A sharp fall in this index, however unlikely, could raise talk for a rate cut at that afternoon’s FOMC announcement.

 

Econoday

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Weekly

They have penetrated the Support at 1.08150, but no reaction whatsoever …

So to stop banging my head this is the realistic situation :

–          If they close this week above 1.08500 – we go Up

–          If they close this week below 1.08150 –we go Down

Simple as that.

[GVI Forex]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – CONSOLIDATING AROUND .6550

 

Having ended 9 down days in a row, AUDUSD has spent the past 3 days consolidating around ,6550.

Watch  .6550 as this level will dictate whether ,6500 comes under attack or the down move is over.

Next up is Aussie CPI on Wednesday.

[Belgrade Bobby]

This Week

Aside the Summer Holidays that slowed down everything , this week’s data makes it even worse…

Drawing lines on Charts is kind of a waste of time and empty expectations.

Being exclusively a Technical Trader, this is Hell for me….

It is difficult for me to explain it fully, but those of you who are long in this know – way how market moves ( or not move for that matter) is just wrong….Bars on smaller time frames are way too small, so even when right you won’t make much…but if they come for your stop it can be doubled…just like that…

Market is very light and all eyes are now locked on the Data.

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR THE FOMC

 

Having paused above 1.08 yesterday EURUSD has bounced but would need to trade at 1.0850 to extend a 5-day pattern where this level has traded.

Whatever the case, logic says the dollar should have a limited upside once the focus shifts to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting but first has to get past the BOJ decision.

For day traders, little to go for unless either side of 1.08 or 1.0871 is taken out.

Otherwise, watch to see if 1.0850 can trade.

[Author]

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