I like the buy side of Euro around 1.09. Futures 0920-30 zone is intact. Was clear to me some major entities were just playing games the other day and caused a lot of coffee and head shaking among the little people who’s stops were run. Based on what? Widespread inconsistencies in metrics such as futures, options, forwards, neural-networks, visual recognition of some whale orders which were not hedges but rather stop runs which were actually profit taking that did not damage overall allocations, etc. Banks and the like have been in way before yesterday.
Today my preference has shifted to the buy side of Sterling and I don’t see selling follow through in US stocks from yesterday of much consequence and am eyeing the buy side for now.
Purely for reference: 7/16 – I will be out of the office tomorrow so just a quick note. I do not see Sterling doing much over 1.300 and will be favoring the sell side, which is an addition to the sell side positions just established very lightly to start. Since I am can be active in options, futures, or spot if I am making such notes it does not mean I am allocating to spot but just noting the price relation.
Democrat leaders seem to be circling the wagons around Biden and donors are pulling back pushing him io step down. Logic says it is only a mnatter of time but we could have said that months ago.
Question is how will markets react to Biden stepping down. Much will depend on who replaces him and how that impacts the polls.
BIDEN’S POLITICAL FUNERAL AS TRADING THEME
–
It appears that joe has somewhere between 1 and 5 minutes of political life left with over 60% unabashedly calling for him to ride off into the sunset.
Possible politically themed repricing of “trump trade” could be who joe’s replacement candidate would be, currently things appear favouring harris as candidate for president.
GBPUSD HOUR CHART – 1.30 REMAINS TH KEY FOCUS
Failure to hold above 1.30 has cooled the move but would need to break 1.2937-66 AND THE TRENDLINE to suggest a top is in for now.
To state the obvious, 1.30 will set the tone going forward.
Note the 4 hour trendline is a major one although the daily trendline is far out of range
Catastrophically stupid – in hindsight
Former Goldman, Blackstone analyst gets 28-month prison sentence for insider trading
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A former Goldman Sachs and Blackstone analyst was sentenced to 28 months in prison on Wednesday for insider trading, after admitting that his conduct was “catastrophically stupid.”
USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – WAS IT THE BOJ AGAIN?
USDJPY break of 155.70 support paused shy of the next key level at 155.11, leading to a bounce back above the breakdown level.
As this chart shows, there is potentially some upward momentum trying to build but only if 156.80 is firmly taken out.
The question is whether this was another BOJ attack which has turned longer-term chart technicals against the USD.
One word about intervention- the longer it goes on the more traders adjust strategies to take advantage of it (i.e. like buying the deep dip today).
In any case, a failure to take out 155 would be significant and setup a 155-158 range.
© 2024 Global View