[SF Monedge]

Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen pending press conferences:  “You see nothing, its all a mirage, if you look at the numbers we said ___.”  Kamala Harris pending press conference: “hahahaha go team.”

I am waiting to buy UsdJpy again just a little lower.  So are some banks.

[GVI Forex]

Confirmed 818,000 revision lower

[GVI Forex]

I heard chatter of 818,000 down revision but take that FWIW as revisions not on wires

[GVI Forex]

Algos run wild when liquidity thins waiting for those revisions

USDJPY had a 115 pip range in a 5 minute candle (145.74-146.90…last 145.80

[GVI Forex]

We still haven’t seen the revisions… whipsaws waiting for it

[GVI Forex]

Shall I repeat if you trade EURUSD or GBPUSD, keep an eye on EURGBP.

Currently, EURGBP is trading at .8519 vs. its earlier high at .8543

GBPUSD is better bid (tested 1.3050) while EURUSD has backed off from 1.1130 (last at 1.1113)

So once GB{USD met resistance, offsets took over and pushed EURUSD lower => Using crosses to trade SpotFX 101

New ball game shortly when jobs revisions come out.

[SF Monedge]

Referencing GV and JP posts below:

1.      Democrats and their propaganda arm which is no longer a FED but is the FED, will try to just ignore the almost 1 million job losses they hid from plain sight, knowing their faithful cheerleaders only hear the headline releases and not the nasty realities under the hood such as labor participation rate, and hope the matter evaporates in favor of other weighty issues on the airwaves.  Some people refuse to believe they have been celebrating and glorifying con artists.

2.      Perusing the mix of economic and geopolitical matters dominating the airwaves it is evident that there has been such an incredible mess across the board that it became an aimless chase of which matter of the moment is the worst/best for causation of price activity.  Which has now settled into catatonia.

3.      Bottom line is a highly dysfunctional cesspool of political and economic agendas and practices across continents.

What matters now is what matters to the portfolios of Goldman Sachs and SaxoBank, who were on Bloomberg last night voicing their disgust, and how they approach adjusting their risk exposure.  My experience with those entities is they have already largely done that far ahead of the curve as a responsible employment of “just in case” hedging allocations.

The market is more numb now to sudden dramatic events of most kinds and is in search of legitimate prospects to chase.

USD was receiving follow up flows pre-Asian session last night to prop the Dollar which I capitalized on if you read my post from Asia last night.  They are rebalancing some Dollar exposure to strengthen in spots as much has been priced in with relation to interest rate reduction in the US.  Amazingly, this time the banks are behaving far more legitimately than politicians taking your money like Greta Thornburg selling a coming ice age.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

Supports : 1.11100 , 1.10850 & 1.10500

Resistances : 1.11250 , 1.11300 & 1.11750

If this bar ( in next 35 min ) closes above 1.11200, we should have another leg Up.

Close below it would delay further advances.

[Mtl JP]

Big Deal This Morning
–
DLRx 101.37 , if only miniscularly uP at least has stopped diving.
It looks like some sharp bargain-hunting opportunists on the buy side
DLR’s uPside looks very non-promising, feeble at this time

Much ado has been made of the clowns at BLS and their annual benchmark revisions to us payrolls
10:00 am – bbrg is peddling the idea of 600k-1m “revision”, commenting that revision of more than 501K
would indicate that econ conditions have been / are crappier than peddled to-date. (hahaha janet and her strong economy)
.
(I am near certain they wont be announcing any revisions to payroll at the BLS)

14:00 – july 31 fomc minutes – probably little market credibility / relevance

EURO 1.1116 – puppy’s run on pause atm
Bias: bullish
Res 1.1140
Sup 1.1075 +/- 5

Break N of 1.1150 would suggest new rally enthusiasm for 1.12++

[GVI Forex]

Thinking out loud

A perfect storm for the USD bears would be BLS job revisions toward the top of the 600k-1 mln down estimates, a pop in weekly jobless claims on Thursday and a dovish Powell on Friday that would revive talk of a 50BP rate cut.

This leaves a lot of room for surprises starting with the jobs revisions at 14:00 GMT in a market likely set up short ahead of it.

[GVI Forex]

USDCAD WEEKLY CHART – KEY LEVEL LOOMS

USDCAD shaking off Tuesday’s CPI report and continues to perform technically with the break of 1.3656 exposing the key level at 1.3589.

The significance of 1.3589 is that a firm break would confirm the top at 1.3977 and leave a void below it.

On the upside, there is a minor double top around 1.3624 ahead of 1.3641-56.

[GVI Forex]

ALERT

BLS NFP revision are due at 14:00 GMT (10:00 EDT)

[GVI Forex]

USDX WEEKLY CHART – NEW LOW

New low for the year and bearish as long as it trades below 102.35.

With EUR representing 57.6% of the index, it can be used as a proxy for the EURUSD although the USD weakness is widespread.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Samuel Indyk

The relentless recovery in the S&P 500 from early August’s post-payrolls trough finally took a pause on Tuesday after eight straight up days, and futures are not giving too much indication about the direction of travel on Wednesday.

Morning Bid: Relentless rally pauses for breath

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – KUDOS

Kudos to JP and Monege for catching the trade off of 145 as all the action has been in the JOY.

If you take a step back, the broad range is 141.69=149.39 and any stops within it do not land the punch of breaking this range.

Otherwise, the bounce from just below 145 confirms this as the pivotal level with a move above 147.34 needed to negate the current downside risk. A conspiracy theorist would say the BoJ is in covertly to prevent another run at the low.

If you narrow the range ti 145-148, then 146.50 would be a neutral midpoint.

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOIR REVISIONS

EURUSD consolidating awaiting key BLS job revisions.

Next target remains at 1.1139 but I would also use 1.1150 as being a key level as well.

On the downside, needs to hold 1.11 to keep the very strong bid

Support below it is at 1.1070.

[GVI Forex]

REMINDER – A KEY FOCUS TODAY

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release key job market revisions on Wednesday.

Large downward revisions in job growth from April 2023 through March 2024 are expected (600k-1mln by some estimates)

Note it does not include the past 3 months jobs data.

[SF Monedge]

145 not 155.  You got it.  Its going up after the battle is settled.

[SF Monedge]

Rode the short all day from early US and hit the bid at 155.00 even, prime t/p is 145.90 to be safe.  The Asian session bias is at equilibrium at 145.25 and non-committal to breaching 145.60 or 144.90 decisively headed into the second half.  Europe should be interesting.

Of interest to me is how democrats/FED are going to explain away the almost 1 million job losses they just confessed to that they hid from plain sight.  Saxo Bank and Goldman just publicly voiced the same interest in an explanation on Bloomberg.

[SF Monedge]

And Kudos to you too JP as always, I almost spit out my tea laughing at a couple of your comments below.  Good to retain a sense of humor and awareness at the same time eh…

[Author]

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