Here’s the story
“The US has indications that Iran intends to carry out a missile attack against Israel in the immediate future”. according to a Senior White House official cited by Axio’ Ravid
Source. Newsquawk.com
US stocks have been unenthusiastic about going on a run overnight and yesterday. Upcoming US data has to be not soggy for any upside to develop of note. Global conditions are not particularly celebratory with the cumulative effect of economic weaknesses and global tension.
I hope you are not one of the gullible one’s buying the US administration snake oil about inflation being under control. My Jello pudding now costs 600% above what it did 3 years ago.
Us Dollar is up and I don’t think that changes unless/until 101.025 is convincingly breached. UsdJpy has been sideways since 2am PST. If AudJpy can stay above 99.40 convincingly the buy side is likely favored but if not it would amount to the market not seeing value above it yet. 10yr yield opened decidedly down, that does not mean is prohibited from pulling up.
I am just doing what the market is doing and not attempting to form an opinion.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Wall Street’s S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab kicks off the final quarter of a stellar 2024 from yet another record close notched on Monday – with odd quarter-end effects competing with measured Federal Reserve guidance as labor market updates hit the radar.
Fed chair Jerome Powell cooled speculation of a second 50 basis point cut at the central bank’s next meeting, indicating the central bank was in no rush and suggesting that two more quarter-point rate cuts by year’s end was a base case.
Morning Bid: Stocks kick off Q4 at record, euro inflation undershoots
GBPUSD Daily
Supports : 1.32700 , 1.32450 & 1.31850
Resistances : 1.33450 , 1.33600 & 1.33850
Bullish angle has been lost, and only question is if this is going to be a correctional phase or full blown downtrend.
Monthly and weekly charts are more in favour of a correction and continuation of the Uptrend later on.
GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Tests key support
EURUSD leading, GBPUSD following with a lag (note EURGBP)
1.3310 tested and remains key support.
Back above 1.3350-69 would be needed to deflect the risk.
As noted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook</a>
On the downside, 1.3310 is the make or break level, keeping the risk on the high while above it.
Logic says for GBPUSD to make a serious break to a new high, EURUSD would need to establish above 1.12 and/or EURGBP would need to make another leg down.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Having paused above the top of 2614-22 support the focus shifts back to 2650 as a bias setter.
To suggest another run at the record high, 2660-66 would need to be overcome.
Otherwise, rising Middle East tensions suggest some safe haven demand but unless the high is taken out, it may just be a period of consolidation within 2600-2700.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Retracement?
As noted yesterday, the sharp Friday-early Monday drop from 146.49-141.64 left little in the way of obvious resistance levels. above the market. This left retracement levels as potential resistance.
In this regard, the move up has so far paused below the 61.8% FIBO,(see below) which if broken would shift the risk back to 145 and Friday’s high.
Otherwise, it looks like 142-145.
USING OUR FIBONACCI CALCULATOR
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