Some metrics including options, forwards, open interest etc are showing a solid bid at current levels. That matches the larger bid cycle but it is against the grain of the recent closer in selling. Market is looking bid further out, so the pair either likely fails and dumps today post-Powell or goes on another run up the hill.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money – and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday’s U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors – with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with ‘core’ rates still stuck at 3.4%.
Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
EURUSD 4 HOUR – WAITING FOR POWELL
Given expectations of a dovish tilt for Fed Chair Powell’s testimony today, the dollar upside should be limited ahead of it.
This suggests markets should be positioned for a more dovish testimony so it will be the reaction to his comments that will be more important than what he says barring some clear signal of a rate cut (markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a Sept cut).
Otherwise, expect support as long as 1.08+ trades but needing to take out 1.0845-50 to suggest a run at key targets in the 1.09-1.10 area.
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – AIMING FOR .68?
Key target is close to .69 with .6800 the next obstacle. To make a run at .68, .6750 would need to become support.
Minor range .6710-.6761
Split the range and .6735 is the midpoint… needs to hold to keep a bid.
CLICK BELOW TO LEARN ABOUT THE
GLOBAL-VIEW TRADING CLUB
TSLA – Tesla
Tesla on Track for Longest Winning Streak Since June 2023
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is currently at $252.54, up $1.02 or 0.41%Would be highest close since Dec. 28, 2023, when it closed at $253.18
Currently up 10 of the past 11 days
Currently up nine consecutive days; up 38.32% over this period
Longest winning streak since June 13, 2023, when it rose for 13 straight trading days
Best nine day stretch since the nine days ending Feb. 2, 2023, when it rose 41.11%
Up 27.62% month-to-date
Up 1.63% year-to-date
© 2024 Global View