[GVI Forex]

BTC WEEKLY CHART – ONLY A RETRACEMENT?

Using 38431 => 73810, 61.8% = 51946 vs. the low at 53521 … See our Fibonacci calculator

For the bull side then, a case can be made that the 15000+ pip drop is still within the realm of a retracement given the pause above the 61.8% level.

On the upside, 63819+ would be needed to confirm a bottom and shift the focus back to 65000.

In any case, the failure to hold below 56483 shifts the focus back to 60000, which will dictate whether this rebound has legs but unless the low is taken out, there are no key stops left to run on the downside.

As I have noted, I prefer to look at pivotal big figures in BTC. In this regard, 55K, 60K and 65K are the current levels to watch.

 

 

 

[GVI Forex]

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[GVI Forex]

Most of us do not trade based on weekly charts but they are a good starting point to see a clearer picture of what side is most at risk and the stronger side to trade, potential targets and whether there are any levels that would change the trend.

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD WEEKLY – Upper end of its range

Remains within an 8 week 2277-2450 range, that has narrowed to 2350-2450 but maintains a bid if it stays aboive 2400.

Support is from 2350-86

[GVI Forex]

AUDUSD WEEKLY – AIMING FOR HIGHER?

f

So far AUDUSD .6800 has so caused a pause but if solidly broken then .6897 would be targeted next.

ON THE DOWNSIDE, KEEPS A BID AS LONG AS IT STAYS ABOVE .6750

Aussie emplument report on Thursday

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY WEEKLY – BOJ TO THE RESCUE

2 bouts of apparent intervention suggest the top is in for now or longer (below 162).

On the upside, 158 is pivotal in setting the tone but in any case, expect it to be limited as long as it trades below 160.00-15.

On the downside, there is a 2-day intervention low double bottom at 157.41. If broken, talk will be for 155.

Japan CPI on Friday

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD WEEKLY – AIMING FOR 1.10?

Break of 1.0915 would target 1.0981 with 1.10 looming above.

Keeps a strong bid if 1.09 can become support, stays with a bid as long as 1,0850-60-70 holds on the downside.

ECB meeting on Thursday

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD WEEKLY CHART – Approaching 1.30

CLEARLY AN OUTPERFORMER (NOTE EURGBP TESTING 2024 LOW)

TARGETING POTENTIALLY 1.3141 AS LONG AS IT STAYS ABOVE 1.2893

STRONGER RISK IF 1.30+ TRADES.

UK CPI on Wednesday, jobs report on Thursday, retail sales on Friday

[michael Calif]

IF  ..  USD rallies that presents another entry point for Long EURUSD

[SF Monedge]

Jay – further, it is why I often include notation of multiple instruments (neural network approach) to add perspective and hopefully be helpful.  After reverse engineering seemingly a thousand indicators in coding, producing my own unique codes (some of which were visually stunning and some ridiculous in the visual output) the final product ended up like a high frequency algorithm with a very simple display.  The original intent was to make it so simple to allocate upon you could do it when exhausted and unable to think with your usual clarity.

Bottom line is yes, like a magnet.  Big money has to revisit certain areas with extremely few exceptions.

[SF Monedge]

Jay – it is order based so yes.  There are occasional times it ends up being close to any number of indicators but absolutely not the same and extremely reliable.  It will coincide at times with a moving average point, other times a stochastic point, other times options orders, other times bollingers, on occasion volume profile, other times you name it.  But if you think you will manufacture by using those things you will not end up with the same result.  My best version was done on Esignal, which you have to pay a lot of money for.  Currently using a hybrid which is not as good but close enough.

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – How bid?

A bit if a disappointment as a break of a big figure is usually good for 20-35 pips. Instead it has been sideways watching paint dry afternoon.

Here’;s the story

Bid while above 1.0850

Stronger bid if above 1.09

If 1.0915 is firnly broken, then 1.0980 becomes a target

If 1.09 fails to hold, then it is 1.0850/60-1.0900-10

ECB meets next week

[GVI Forex]

Are you saying point of control is like a magnet level?

[GVI Forex]

Stocks taking off….needed a retracement to setup the fresh run higher

[SF Monedge]

Jay –

Point of control is where the more weighty transactions take place for any given instrument.  While there is no guarantee that those areas will be revisited in the fashion I noted earlier, but the probabilities are very strongly weighted they will.  That is due in part to the fact that large orders from large institutions/entities transact there.  This is based on decades of factors of input for analysis, with the result being solid in terms of probability.  One of the better forms of imagery I could compare it to is a volume profile.  Be advised, this is not a volume profile and you will not find it there.  But in some ways there are similarities.  Having it is step one.  Step two is application that actually works.  Requires dedication.

[GVI Forex]

Can you explain the term point of control.

[SF Monedge]

UsdCad 3620 (which is current market) is the point of control in spot, with 7350 the point of control in futures for Canadian Dollar (which is current market).  Regardless of how markets behave up or down, these price levels will be revisited in August.  My preference is the sell side in spot in the 3680-90 zone at present if/when seen.

[SF Monedge]

If you are a participant in EurChf (Eur vs Swiss Franc) my sentiment is to stay with the buy side if it nears the 9720 area.  Selling the pair from current values or a bit higher would be a contra-position.  That said, I have the same sentiment for the pair entering the weekend as UsdChf noted below.

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

NO CHANGE, WIDE RANGE 2350-2450

Support as long as above 2377

[SF Monedge]

I prefer to be on the sell side of UsdSwiss Franc for risk management purposes into the weekend.

A German defense industry executive of a major producer of tanks and weaponry, some of which has been shipped to Ukraine, was the target of a Russian assassination plan in recent weeks which did not play out.  When I learned of this I made some phone calls to some old friends and there is legitimate unease within military/defense circles at present.  Moscow has been engaged in cyber attacks, espionage, sabotage, and one aggressive act not publicized in media.

The situation is escalating in Eastern Europe and should be watched closely as it is clear Moscow has zero apprehension to escalate.  One event would cause Euro to shock currency markets to the downside.  At present, some NATO member countries are only paying 60% of their required defense contributions while the US has a dysfunctional Congress and no President or Vice President.

[Author]

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