[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0930 , ECB and players

–
ECB is likely to repeat “depend on incoming data”
players now reducing odds of Sep cut

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 1h

Pre ECB situation :

Resistances at : 1.09350 , 1.09500 & 1.09600

Supports at : 1.09250 , 1.09050 & 1.08850

Currently on the way down –correctional phase.

Ideal development – test the support at 1.08850

Obviously waiting for the ECB

[GVI Forex]

I posted this chart earlier and reposting so you can see the key levels if the 155.70 break holds.

[GVI Forex]

July ECB meeting preview: On hold until at least September

Having delivered the widely anticipated 25 basis point cut in key interest rates in June, the ECB is expected to leave policy unchanged at what will be its last meeting before the summer recess. Since the last gathering, inflation developments have been mixed and the euro has been volatile in the face of
diminished easing speculation in the U.S. and the fallout from surprisingly sharp swings to the right and then left in the recent snap French National Assembly elections. Accordingly, Thursday’s announcement is seen holding the key deposit rate at 3.75 percent, the refi rate at 4.25 percent and the rate on the marginal lending facility at 4.50 percent. The bank is also likely to repeat June’s limited forward guidance which stated that it “will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary” to achieve the inflation target…

Econoday

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin Weekly

Bitcoin getting Bullish again – Real Obstacle waiting at 71.000

·         Bitcoin soars after Trump survives shooting.

·         Prices crossed $66,000 from $56,600.

·         Trump to address audience at BTC event.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAU/USD: Gold Soars to Record Above $2,480 on Rate Cut Hopes
·         Gold prices blast to new record.

·         Bullion hits all-time high of $2,480.

Gold  XAUUSD is on a tear. The precious metal hit an all-time record of $2,480 per ounce during the Asian session Wednesday as traders were feeling confident to pile their long bets. Optimism over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts is back after a slew of favorable economic data and the man himself striking an upbeat tone on inflation — Jay Powell said Monday that the Fed is happy with the inflation’s downward trajectory.

[Belgrade Bobby]

TSLA- Tesla Stock Pops as Musk Addresses Robotaxi Delay: “Show Off a Few Other Things”

Tesla shares rise 1.6% Tuesday.

Elon Musk endorses Donald Trump.

X and SpaceX HQs to leave California.

 

[GVI Forex]

The anti-dollar is holding above 1.0920

Not showing any fear of an ECB surprise

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.157%

is re-testing previous lows , think may be the 3x time now
lets see how it does

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.0925

I am thinking … dlr should get a bit if phillipm (ie, euro down some)
IF players digest barkin and waller as I think they should
(i.e cool your heels boyz n gurls about imminent rate cut)

[Mtl JP]

Yakety Yak

Barkin says
– Is open to the idea that interest rates were not as restrictive as many think.
”It’s too soon to tell,”
– In this case, the best thing the Fed can do is ”proceed deliberately. That’s what I’m doing,” barkin

Waller Says
– Fed Getting ‘Closer’ to Cutting Rates, Not There Yet
– “Current data are consistent with achieving a soft landing, and I will be looking for data over the next couple months to buttress this view,” “While I don’t believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted.”
– whether you go in September or November or December with a rate cut really doesn’t matter unless there’s some big shock that hits the economy in that timespan,”

I , for myself, give more weight to waller. you may feel something else

[GVI Forex]

So far

Power of 50:1
Dollar bears: 0

But

GBPUSD needs to hold 1.30
EURUSD needs to hold 1.0920

USDJPY?

How about 156.50

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

My Magical ( and historical at the same time ) Trend Lines proved right….once again.

So nuff of self patting myself – here are the levels we are looking at :

Supports : 0.88250 , 0.87300 , 0.86350 &  0.85600

Resistances : 0.88950 , 0.89450 , 0.89750 & 0.90000

As long as we stay Above 0.85600, USDCHF will have a chance to reach higher then 0.92 , even as high as 0.94800 & 0.96850 .

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

At the time when I said that 162.00 would be a logical point where BoJ would intervene ( if at all ) , most were probably thinking that I lost it…

160.00 was a mythical level and we were jumping between 152 and 156.

So what do we have here now – well, The Double Top – market doesn’t need BoJ to understand what it means.

But do not trash USDJPY just like that – there are so many levels to be taken out, before we can even dream of Bearish USDJPY….

I have drawn Fibo levels on this chart, just to show you how far the simple correction can go.

If it stops falling short of 50% retracement, next thing you know we’ll be looking at levels around 175.00

So many fundamental things are happening right now, and there is no way to predict what’s gonna happen in the near future, not to mention several years from now, but I am not convinced that USDJPY Rally is over, yet. Time will tell….

[GVI Forex]

All US stock indices, including Ruessell are down…

[Mtl JP]

going … going …

Biden shares conditions for possible withdraw from US presidential elections
“in an interview with CBS News, has stated that he might withdraw from this year’s presidential election due to health issues”

“If there had some medical condition that emerged, if the doctors came to me and said you got this problem, that problem,” – joe

[Mtl JP]

aussie dead in water

[GVI Forex]

Unverified and unconfirmed reports via social media (so take it with a grain if salt) that China’s Xi had suffered a stroke.

[Mtl JP]

FED yakkers on deck
–
09:00 – barkin on econ + q&a
09:35 – waller on econ outlook

13:00 – janet peddles 13 bio of 20yr paper
14:00 – FED s beige book

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0934 & “PAUSES”
–
technically euro is in bull trend.
intially and carefully euro is a BoD to low 1.09 / high 1.088x

gain over 1.095 should open up 1.10/1.11

[Author]

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