[SF Monedge]

The S/P 500 Strategic Commodities Index is beginning to trade under its equilibrium slightly and so when it arrives around certain areas which would coincide with Gold pricing 2470 to 2480 that is a zone I expect to see some more robust buy side activity in Gold again.  (Got your back JP)

JP – regarding the FED…one has to.  In similar fashion to the value of the US Dollar itself.  The Dollar is backed by the confidence that the market has in future economic performance.  Not Gold (there is not enough store to sustain the US economy for more than 48hrs even in war time).  The FED impacts markets with their views on confidence.  So the FED is viewed as both cause and effect.  The problem is the accounting.  When I was majoring in accounting I proved to the instructor that the books could be cooked without affecting the balance sheet during finals.  I got an A on the final but was flunked for disproving actuary out of spite by the instructor lol.

That is what the FED has been doing of late.

[Mtl JP]

SF 2:42 – do you count the FED meddling in the fin market and the economy as a “fundamental” element ?

The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

[SF Monedge]

JP – It is simply factual they have been keeping it out of the (published) results to cause the face value appearance of inflation being lower than it really is.  The reality is some commodities will remain inflated now with new levels being established in the cost of living index.  Basically the books are being cooked so that it appears inflation is cooling but it really is not, only in some parameters.  Some could possibly argue it is criminal and be correct.  It is like the headline employment number that does not “account” for the labor participation rate.  The headline figure looks great.  Until the clothes come off.

There is an old saying in sales and politics:  Multiply your positives and divide your negatives.  They won’t know any different than what they hear if they remain uneducated.  Some remain uneducated by choice.

[Mtl JP]

FWIW
bullard says …

Job market needs to normalize, not deteriorate: Fmr. Fed. Pres.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/job-market-needs-normalize-not-143107268.html

[Mtl JP]

with cost of money currently on the slide
I am thinking about the CPI not including cost of money (i.e. interest on loans) in its formula

[SF Monedge]

I don’t believe this morning’s US data affected Euro much other than to not shock the buy side entrants who are larger entities.  The buy side was already being entertained below 0800 by more significant participants well before the data was released.

Does that mean fundamentals do not matter in trading?  To think that would be pretty arrogant and pretty narrow.  There is likelihood that the market will see 0880 and if there are no geopolitical or other shocks they may price in 0980.  But likely not before another bout of selling toward 0780 or below, especially considering current geo-political conditions.  Recent activity is highly import/export and geo-fundamental driven, not just by rate moves.

Why is that?  Ask your analysts.  After 5,000 words they will say “on the other hand.”

Or you can just ask your YouTube guru.  They keep it simple.  They know everything.

Well educated traders with common sense and more than out of the box indicators are the best traders.

[Mtl JP]

3.971 and DLR is languishing
part of market seems unconscious
even GOLD is timiid

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 3.999
SF … I am reminded of your heed

[SF Monedge]

The only pairs US was strong against overnight were Asian currencies.  That said, I am beginning to like Euro prospects a little at these levels.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.025
–
I suspect players and markets are are still if not more excessively optimistic about inflation

potential opportunity lies in if they go “animal spirity” the FED will find itself in an uncofortable position of having to cool the enthusiasm

[GVI Forex]

US coming in has seen some risk on => US bond yields fall => USD follows down except USDJPY, which is higher (suggests unwinding of some long JPY crosses)

No change to key pivotal levels

EURUSD 1.08

GBPUSD 1,28

USDJPY 150.

it is like a 3 ring circus.

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – BOUNCED OFF TRENDLINE

 

See this daily chart updated USING MY AMAZING TRADER CHARTING ALGO from the one I posted earlier (SCROLL BELOW) showing the key daily trandline has been tested

Bounce woud need to recover 1.2800-06 and stay above to suggest a low/pause.

I created The Amazing Trader and am still amazed when I see one of its lines, in this case a trendline, hold dead on.

 

[GVI Forex]

BOE cuts by 25bps, 5-4 vote, no surprise

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

The Federal Reserve left Wall Street with little doubt about a first U.S. interest rate cut in seven weeks’ time, but multiple cross-currents from the earnings season, Japan and China, and domestic politics all make for a noisy start to August.

Morning Bid: Fed nods to cut, chips rebound, BoE up next

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – RUN AT RECORD HIGH

Bascking off after a run at the record 2484 high.

Needs to hold above 2432 to keep it on the immediate radar.

Fallback support is at 2395-00.

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART -THE LEVEL TO WATCH

The bLow off to 148.50 and subsequent BOUNCE back to 150 HAS WIPED THE DECK OF STOPS and suggests potential for a pause/low but only if 150 is solidly regained.

On the upside, there is a minor double to at 150.31. Key resistance is at 151.25.

In any case, 150, which has now traded 2 days in a row IS THE LEVEL TO WATCH as it will dictate what comes next.

[GVI Forex]

EURGBP DAILY CHART – GBP WEAK PRE-BOE

Expectations for a rate cut are seen in this cross, weighing on GBPUSD while EURUSD follows wIth a lag.

Key levels to watch after the BoE come in at .8460 double top and .8500

judging by the price moves, the surprise would be no rate cut.

 

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – THE ONLY LEVEL TO WATCH

EURUSD following the weaker GBPUSD with a lag and for me, the only level to watch is 1.08 as this will set the tone going forward.

There is little on a daily chart until 1.0710.

On the upside, the failure to take out 1.0850 set the stage for a fresh run lower.

Note the blue Amazing Trader lines indicating risk on the downside as long as it stays below 1.0870

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – BOE SET TO CUT RATES?

 

GBPUSD moving off the sidelines as price action suggests market is voting for a rate cut today.

Break of 1.2777 is significant if it holds.

Key daily trendline is around 1.2750.

Still above but coming closer to 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) mvas.

Major level us 1.2612, the base of the move to 1.3044.

[GVI Forex]

USD sliding towards 149

I posted this early on Wednesday

Stays offered while below 151.84 former double bottom

150.25 is next key support but 150 is the obvious target

Trendline is in the 148s, break would coinfirm what we already know.

145.89 is the key target if 150 is broken,

140.19 is a major target

Above 151.84-152.00 would be needed to slow the threat,

BoJ likely lurking to slow the downside, not reverse it,

 

[Author]

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